So Buster Posey’s HoF candidacy will be a huge test of this rule of 7s logic. Posey’s career spanned the years from 2010 to 2021 but he only really played 10 full seasons - he was injured in 2011 and sat out the Covid year due to young children at home. During those 10 seasons the Giants reached the post season 5 times, won 3 pennants and 3 World Series. His 2012 MVP and batting title season was one of the best ever by a catcher and he also caught 3 no hitters and 14 postseason shutouts (most all time - I believe Yadi is second with like 7 or 8). I think he’s going to get in next year but Thurman Munson who had a similar length career and also postseason success barely got the time of day from HoF voters.
Funnily enough, there's something similar that has great correlation with the BBWAA elections: five-year win titles, stretching back throughout AL/NL history. Nearly all of the "fewer than 300 wins" electees are on the list, and it doesn't have many duds. Just the past two decades:
So with all this bluster about the SOS - It seems meaningless without getting PAST SOS players onto the Veteran's ballots. We can talk about prior SOS eligibles till the cows come home, but without a way to endorse them and get them on the ballots - So what?
Bro, none of the stuff that is discussed on this blog actually leads to any actual changes in the real world. It's an internet blog discussion for the enjoyment of the participants.
I believe right behind Johan and Roy in that period was another Roy in Roy Oswalt, and while I don't think he was a hall of famer, I do think it was a bit crazy he got voted out after one ballot.
I do wonder if he's a sneaky veterans committee candidate in the future - you can make a pretty cogent argument he was the 3rd best pitcher of the 2000s (2001 - 2010). Now, that's a bit slanted because there's a handful of clear-cut HOFers that only pitched well the first half of that decade (Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Maddux) or the second half (Verlander, early Kershaw, Scherzer).
But Oswalt was a special player forgotten to time.
Could not agree more on rewarding high peaks over longevity, though both are obviously vital measurements. Johan was pretty clearly the best pitcher in baseball during his peak, and I think that gets him in. On another note, Greinke 100% belongs in that grouping of best pitchers of his generation (certainly my favorite) and it'll be a shame if he's not a 1st ballot.
Two comments. I love the idea of using a 7-year peak for HOF admittance, but why do they have to be in a stretch? Isn't someone who was the best for 7 of 10 years, for instance, just as worthy? You're eliminating players who lost seasons to injuries. And second, speaking of injuries, there is no doubt in my mind that injuries aside, Jacob deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball whenever he's been healthy at least since 2018.
I've commented here before that I think Hall discussions should start at 40 WAR7 for position players.
For pitchers it might be a little higher. I don't see too many cases under 43 WAR7 for pitchers, but there are a few worth the discussion.
It takes 10 years to be eligible for the Hall and I prefer peak to longevity so best 7 seasons seems reasonable when we talk about the greatness of the Hall.
Felix has 38.5 WAR7 (just behind Smoltz at 38.7) and Johan has 45 WAR7 (a little behind Koufax at 46). All numbers BR.
Stieb comes in at 44.5.
A few other notables who aren't in the Hall are
Kevin Brown 45.2
David Cone 43.4
Bret Saberhagen with 43.1 tied with hall of famer Nolan Ryan 43.1.
Sabathia has 39.4 WAR7 as a decent comp to Felix.
I see both Felix and CC as borderline guys and I think you could flip a coin on who had the greater peak. Felix probably has the best season of the 2, but he doesn't stay there up there as long as CC.
I've read a few others spew the value of WAA which I think shows exemplary seasons better than career WAR. I don't really care about a pitcher's mediocre seasons regarding his hall case.
Smoltz who comes in below the 40 WAR7 gains some ground back in WAA, so there is some kind of balance to be had there. I would also add some form of playoff bonus consideration.
I'm still looking for the Posterisk comment that goes with Kristen Bell.
...
**It is, alas, one of the most painful endings to a Hall of Fame career in baseball history.**
Two tidbits about the end of Carlton's career. First, he, along with his 1987 Twins teammates, visited the White House following the World Series. Below one picture, President Reagan and all the players are identified. All, except Carlton that is. Carlton is listed as "unidentified Secret Service officer." Painful
Second, around that time, the wonderful author and former MiLB pitcher Pat Jordan visited Lefty and wrote a long article about that trip. It revealed Carlton to be deeply invested in conspiracy theories. It is even more painful than his late season stats.
I would concede and probably vote for Johan Santana. He was a great pitcher. I am not a huge fan of just looking at stretches like this, but in principle Johan Santana was so good at his best that I am prepared to accept him as a HOFer. I also have a lot of sympathy for his health problems. The same cannot be said for Felix Hernandez.
Felix Hernandez is NOT a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher. Not close. He falls short. His peak was not great enough, nor was his career long enough. It's not the same as 7 years, but Jay Jaffe look at the best 5 year stretches a while back and Felix does not appear on the list (while Corey Kluber does). He looked at 7 year stretches and while Felix DOES appear: he is near the bottom of the list.
The Felix Hernandez HOF argument actively infuriates me every freaking time it's brought up. He is getting way too much benefit of the doubt. There is little difference IMO between Felix Hernandez and someone like Cliff Lee. Or, heck, even Corey Kluber. If you want to argue that 'only' peak matters: then there are several other pitchers with better peaks than Felix who are being ignored.
I will close by saying Felix looks so good in these analyses, in part, because his ENTIRE CAREER was taken up by a 10 year stretch. So of course he's going to look good just looking at 10 year stretches! Forget that nobody viewed a decade long stretch as 'peak' until we started touting Felix Hernandez. He's gonna get into the HOF, of course, which will result in HOF standards dropping. It's a frustrating state of affairs.
Steve Carlton had a .600 lifetime winning percentage (311-207) when he found out his business manager had robbed him blind and he effectively had nothing to show financially for his career.
It was a pure - and understandable- mercenary tour
Well.... we do like to read about hopeful stuff. It gladdens my heart that Zach Wheeler is listed! He's been a mainstay for the Phillies (and I dislike the phillies). Truly, i hope he has another really good year - especially after that tough surgery. If he can continue, he might, just might approach 150+ wins (or more). If he does continue with success, he's probably a pitcher who pitches into his 40's.
I don't know if he's reconsidered it since the injury, but Wheeler previously said he was 100% retiring when his contract is up at the end of the 2027 season.
So Buster Posey’s HoF candidacy will be a huge test of this rule of 7s logic. Posey’s career spanned the years from 2010 to 2021 but he only really played 10 full seasons - he was injured in 2011 and sat out the Covid year due to young children at home. During those 10 seasons the Giants reached the post season 5 times, won 3 pennants and 3 World Series. His 2012 MVP and batting title season was one of the best ever by a catcher and he also caught 3 no hitters and 14 postseason shutouts (most all time - I believe Yadi is second with like 7 or 8). I think he’s going to get in next year but Thurman Munson who had a similar length career and also postseason success barely got the time of day from HoF voters.
I know you like to be amazed by greatness (especially peak greatness, apparently) so I would advise to watch this season of racing. Pog!
Strade Bianche: Tadej Pogacar wins Italian one-day classic for record fourth time - BBC Sport https://share.google/e7BDmZtVG4Z41jl68
Speaking of similarity- The Lou Klimchock picture on wikipedia (black n white), very young, resembles Tony Dow (Wally Cleaver) quite a bit.
Juan Marichal never winning the Cy is akin to Brad Park never winning the Norris as the NHL’s best defenseman.
Funnily enough, there's something similar that has great correlation with the BBWAA elections: five-year win titles, stretching back throughout AL/NL history. Nearly all of the "fewer than 300 wins" electees are on the list, and it doesn't have many duds. Just the past two decades:
2002-2006 - Roy Oswalt- 84 wins
2003-2007 - Johan Santana - 82
2004-2008 - Roy Oswalt & Johan Santana - 86
2005-2009 - C.C. Sabathia - 82
2006-2010 - Roy Halladay - 90
2007-2011 - C.C. Sabathia - 95
2008-2012 - C.C. Sabathia - 91
2009-2013 - Justin Verlander - 91
2010-2014 - Justin Verlander - 87
2011-2015 - Clayton Kershaw - 88
2012-2016 - Max Scherzer - 89
2013-2017 - Max Scherzer - 89
2014-2018 - Max Scherzer - 86
2015-2019 - Zack Greinke - 82
2016-2020 - Max Scherzer - 70
2017-2021 - Gerrit Cole - 70
2018-2022 - Gerrit Cole - 71
2019-2023 - Gerrit Cole - 71
2020-2024 - Framber Valdez - 60
2021-2025 - Framber Valdez - 68
Looking good for Framber!
So with all this bluster about the SOS - It seems meaningless without getting PAST SOS players onto the Veteran's ballots. We can talk about prior SOS eligibles till the cows come home, but without a way to endorse them and get them on the ballots - So what?
Bro, none of the stuff that is discussed on this blog actually leads to any actual changes in the real world. It's an internet blog discussion for the enjoyment of the participants.
Yes, thanks. Like Charlie Brown n Lucy ... we aspire to kick the ball....
Great analysis and presentation!
Felix vs Johan is close, the tiebreaker should go to whoever hit more grand slams off of the other one
I believe right behind Johan and Roy in that period was another Roy in Roy Oswalt, and while I don't think he was a hall of famer, I do think it was a bit crazy he got voted out after one ballot.
I do wonder if he's a sneaky veterans committee candidate in the future - you can make a pretty cogent argument he was the 3rd best pitcher of the 2000s (2001 - 2010). Now, that's a bit slanted because there's a handful of clear-cut HOFers that only pitched well the first half of that decade (Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Maddux) or the second half (Verlander, early Kershaw, Scherzer).
But Oswalt was a special player forgotten to time.
Could not agree more on rewarding high peaks over longevity, though both are obviously vital measurements. Johan was pretty clearly the best pitcher in baseball during his peak, and I think that gets him in. On another note, Greinke 100% belongs in that grouping of best pitchers of his generation (certainly my favorite) and it'll be a shame if he's not a 1st ballot.
Two comments. I love the idea of using a 7-year peak for HOF admittance, but why do they have to be in a stretch? Isn't someone who was the best for 7 of 10 years, for instance, just as worthy? You're eliminating players who lost seasons to injuries. And second, speaking of injuries, there is no doubt in my mind that injuries aside, Jacob deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball whenever he's been healthy at least since 2018.
I've commented here before that I think Hall discussions should start at 40 WAR7 for position players.
For pitchers it might be a little higher. I don't see too many cases under 43 WAR7 for pitchers, but there are a few worth the discussion.
It takes 10 years to be eligible for the Hall and I prefer peak to longevity so best 7 seasons seems reasonable when we talk about the greatness of the Hall.
Felix has 38.5 WAR7 (just behind Smoltz at 38.7) and Johan has 45 WAR7 (a little behind Koufax at 46). All numbers BR.
Stieb comes in at 44.5.
A few other notables who aren't in the Hall are
Kevin Brown 45.2
David Cone 43.4
Bret Saberhagen with 43.1 tied with hall of famer Nolan Ryan 43.1.
Sabathia has 39.4 WAR7 as a decent comp to Felix.
I see both Felix and CC as borderline guys and I think you could flip a coin on who had the greater peak. Felix probably has the best season of the 2, but he doesn't stay there up there as long as CC.
I've read a few others spew the value of WAA which I think shows exemplary seasons better than career WAR. I don't really care about a pitcher's mediocre seasons regarding his hall case.
Smoltz who comes in below the 40 WAR7 gains some ground back in WAA, so there is some kind of balance to be had there. I would also add some form of playoff bonus consideration.
I'm still looking for the Posterisk comment that goes with Kristen Bell.
...
**It is, alas, one of the most painful endings to a Hall of Fame career in baseball history.**
Two tidbits about the end of Carlton's career. First, he, along with his 1987 Twins teammates, visited the White House following the World Series. Below one picture, President Reagan and all the players are identified. All, except Carlton that is. Carlton is listed as "unidentified Secret Service officer." Painful
Second, around that time, the wonderful author and former MiLB pitcher Pat Jordan visited Lefty and wrote a long article about that trip. It revealed Carlton to be deeply invested in conspiracy theories. It is even more painful than his late season stats.
https://deadspin.com/thin-air-in-the-mountains-with-steve-carlton-armed-co-478492324/
I was looking for the Kristen Bell comment, too.
I would concede and probably vote for Johan Santana. He was a great pitcher. I am not a huge fan of just looking at stretches like this, but in principle Johan Santana was so good at his best that I am prepared to accept him as a HOFer. I also have a lot of sympathy for his health problems. The same cannot be said for Felix Hernandez.
Felix Hernandez is NOT a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher. Not close. He falls short. His peak was not great enough, nor was his career long enough. It's not the same as 7 years, but Jay Jaffe look at the best 5 year stretches a while back and Felix does not appear on the list (while Corey Kluber does). He looked at 7 year stretches and while Felix DOES appear: he is near the bottom of the list.
The Felix Hernandez HOF argument actively infuriates me every freaking time it's brought up. He is getting way too much benefit of the doubt. There is little difference IMO between Felix Hernandez and someone like Cliff Lee. Or, heck, even Corey Kluber. If you want to argue that 'only' peak matters: then there are several other pitchers with better peaks than Felix who are being ignored.
I will close by saying Felix looks so good in these analyses, in part, because his ENTIRE CAREER was taken up by a 10 year stretch. So of course he's going to look good just looking at 10 year stretches! Forget that nobody viewed a decade long stretch as 'peak' until we started touting Felix Hernandez. He's gonna get into the HOF, of course, which will result in HOF standards dropping. It's a frustrating state of affairs.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-retiring-corey-kluber-and-the-rolling-war-revue/
Steve Carlton had a .600 lifetime winning percentage (311-207) when he found out his business manager had robbed him blind and he effectively had nothing to show financially for his career.
It was a pure - and understandable- mercenary tour
Well.... we do like to read about hopeful stuff. It gladdens my heart that Zach Wheeler is listed! He's been a mainstay for the Phillies (and I dislike the phillies). Truly, i hope he has another really good year - especially after that tough surgery. If he can continue, he might, just might approach 150+ wins (or more). If he does continue with success, he's probably a pitcher who pitches into his 40's.
I don't know if he's reconsidered it since the injury, but Wheeler previously said he was 100% retiring when his contract is up at the end of the 2027 season.
Thanks for the update! He might not. He's very competitive from what i read. However, @ his current rate of compensation, i fully understand.