I don't understand how anyone can believe that most people were "originally excited about Sosa, Bonds, and McGwire hitting HRs that shattered Maris and Ruth records." I recall it being more than an open secret that a good portion of the adult fans following baseball was well aware of the flurry of steroid accusations floating around baseball and football at this time.
MLB banned steroids as early as 1991 without any enforcement to deter their use. Those who followed the game had little doubt that the explosion of HRs magnified as early as 1996 when the Baltimore Orioles' great light-hitting Brady Anderson hit 59 Home Runs. He hit all of 72 Home Runs in his prior ten seasons. That outlier should have been the Red Flag that steroid use had a material effect on the game. Then during the 1998 season, when both Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire broke Roger Maris' Home Run record, most folks were more than suspicious. People wondered why these guys started looking like they had gained 80 pounds of muscle overnight. That still wasn't enough for the Lords of baseball to do anything having consequences. It was obvious that steroids were a game-changer in baseball by that point in time. The cat was out of the bag when a bevy of players who could rarely hit double-digit homers was suddenly cracking 20 homers and some even 30-dingers steroid use was pervasive.
Barry Bonds joined the San Francisco Giants his head appeared to have grown twice as big as when he played in Pittsburgh. It was a near certainty that there was a nexus between steroid use and his prolific Home Run hitting in San Francisco, albeit Bonds did lead the National League in Homers once with the Pirates. But now, Bonds was crushing the ball way over the fence into McCovey Cove on every other at bat. Or so it seemed. Bonds eventually set a new record with 73 Home Runs in 2001. By 2004, Managers preferred intentionally walking Bonds whenever he led off an inning than pitching to him. Bonds garnered a record 232 walks that season.
Sammy Sosa's feat shouldn't be celebrated or even mentioned in tones of achievement not only due to steroid use but because that wasn't quite enough for Sosa. He also reverted to using a corked bat to execute his unimaginable feat of hitting 60 or more HRS in 1998, 1999, and 2001 seasons. Sammy Sosa's name should be limited to being mentioned as an example of cheating on an industrial scale. These steroid-abusing cheaters did more harm to baseball than Pete Rose ever did. He belongs in Cooperstown before any of the steroid abusers. The steroid cheaters should never stain the hallowed walls of the Hall of Fame Museum. Otherwise, the game of baseball will suffer an indelible stain that will sully the game of baseball forever. I cannot celebrate heroics achieved by cheating with performance-enhancing drugs. I've more respect for Dock Ellis pitching a No-Hitter on LSD than any steroid user.
During the 1970 season, Ellis was with his girlfriend in Los Angeles 1970 when he dropped some acid with her. At the time, he mistakenly believed that he had an off day. While his girlfriend was flipping through the newspaper around noon, she discovered that the paper had Ellis listed to pitch the first game of a twilight doubleheader at 6:40 p.m. in San Diego. Ellis managed to get a plane to San Diego and arrived at Jack Murphy Stadium by 4:30 p.m., ample time for him to warm up. Dock Ellis would go on to face 36 San Diego Padres hitters, walking eight and hitting one with a pitch. Ellis struck out six and somehow threw a no-hitter while tripping on LSD. The New York Times reported: "Ellis at one point in the fourth inning saw President Richard Nixon behind home plate and Jimi Hendrix digging in against him while holding a guitar." Dock Ellis didn't have the intent to cheat by using PEDs but somehow pitched a gem under marshmallow skies.
Ryan Howard never received the attention he warranted after his first 8 years he led everyone in baseball history in home runs per at bat and runs batted ins per at bat why is it never reported by the media and the Philadelphia Phillies organization shame on you all.
Building on what I wrote before, I think the Judge case points out that Baseball America would be better served to drop the "risk" qualification and just to give a floor and ceiling grade. Let's say they knew that Judge had Hall of Fame potential but that it was a low chance, and he was probably just going to be a guy. Well, they'd feel like asses rating him #1 in the system off of that potential, but that "80" was still there no matter how one tried to ignore it. Judge was essentially unrateable, because it depended what one meant when rating him. So the best would be to provide an overall grade, a floor, and a ceiling, and let the reader decide his focus. This would operate kind of in the way James provided separate ratings for peak and career value. I'm sure a "floor, middle, ceiling" approach would contain problems of its own, but in this kind of case, it would be better.
I think the problem with trying to predict success in baseball is the importance of skill development and the mental part. There are countless examples of great athletes/talented young players who come way short of their "floor" and so many of the great players far exceeded their supposed "ceilings". I prefer "projections". Maybe it's semantics and I just have a personal cringe factor when I see a second round pitcher out of HS listed with a ceiling of a middle rotation starter.
Yeah, when I started following prospects more, this was exactly what I always wanted. Capsule descriptions usually end up giving this info, but I want it up top—I'm not reading capsules for dozens of players on 30 teams, I just want to check out a system or take a quick look at a prospect whose name comes up in an article or broadcast.
Before Judge's 2017 rookie year, Baseball America rated him the 6th-best prospect in the Yankees' system and gave him a "55, risk: high" rating. They didn't provide ratings by tool, as they do now, but they mentioned he had 70 power. The top 10 prospects in the system, in their view, were Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Blake Rutherford, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprelian, Judge, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, and Dustin Fowler. The three pitchers behind Judge also got "55, high risk" ratings.
“You know that 1950s trope about a parent catching their kid smoking and then making them smoke a whole pack. Well, that has to be the one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever heard.”
Wrong here, bud. It actually works. Was up to chain smoking. Then that little exercise took place. Mouth tasted like the inside of a muffler for days. Green for at least 2-3 days. No urge to smoke since.
More to point. Judge has ALWAYS seemed like he’d be THIS guy. Especially during that run up to & through playoffs (before, ahem …). Have ‘jeterated’* about Judge ever since … bc both Oakland AND San Francisco had this kid in their FRONT yards. And did nothing. But that doesn’t take away from authentic fun it is to watch him in box. Watch pitchers both salivate (“look at the size of that strike zone!”) and wrinkle their brows (“is this a trap?”) at same time. Judge just stares out, waiting for the pitch. CRACK!
Agree. Always hated the Yankees, always didn't hate, or kinda liked, or—why not—respected, Judge. And it would be nice to have some 60+ homerun marks without the asterisk.
The "American League record" angle is key here. No one cares too much about the AL record most of the time. But here we want a redo on the home run record, and this works perfectly. Removing the steroid guys feels too artificial and not official enough, but saying that he's chasing the AL record allows us to compare Judge to Ruth and Maris like we really wanted to anyway. If he breaks it, he'll still get his name in the record books, and it allows us to skip the steroid era discussions that nobody likes.
As a lifelong Yankee hater I too have to grudgingly give Judge his due, especially since he doesn't seem like an arrogant or annoying person. I didn't fully grasp how huge he is until I saw him standing next to my guy, Pete Alonso, while leading off first base. Pete's pretty big, we call him Polar Bear. But when I saw how puny and pathetic he looks next to Judge, all I could say was OMG. Fortunately, my Mets did beat the Yankees twice last week, which makes it a lot less painful for me to acknowledge how awesome Judge is.
I think the steroid era is being discounted, historically speaking. Sort of like when people talk about the greatest pitching seasons ever, they mention Bob Gibson's 1.12 in 1968, but there aren't many people who say that's the greatest pitching season of all time. And it's because of the era.
Likewise, Pud Galvin had 20.5 bWAR in 1884 when going 46-24 with a 1.99 ERA in 656 innings pitched. Nobody says Pud had the greatest pitching season ever. Even though, by WAR, he clearly did.
The steroid era is like that (for hitters, at least). The Judge HR chase is mostly about reaching 62, not reaching 74. It's like 61 is still a meaningful record, and the Sosa, McGwire, Bonds fiasco of the turn of the 21st century is an entirely different era.
Well 61 is still a record, in a way. Regardless of one's position on the legitimacy of the exploits of Bonds/McGwire/Sosa, 61 remains the American League record for HRs in a single season.
You know what Joe, you’re my favorite writer and the Yankees are my favorite team. I appreciate that you can put hatred aside and acknowledge when something is special is happening.
I feel like many of us will be making the same disclaimer in our comments, but I concur with the sentiment that Judge seems like a great guy, but why does he have to be a Damn Yankee.
With that out of the way, he is close to being on pace for 150 RBIs too, which hasn't been reached since ARod 15 years ago.
There have been two 60/150 guys, the Babe, of course, and Sosa did it twice. Judge has a real shot to be the third.
He also is on pace for about 140 runs scored. Sosa and the Babe also are the only ones to do 140/60/150.
Of course, the Babe's 1921 season must be mentioned. He "only" had 59 HRS, but he was one homer short of a 175/60/160 season, which is just nuts.
I don't understand how anyone can believe that most people were "originally excited about Sosa, Bonds, and McGwire hitting HRs that shattered Maris and Ruth records." I recall it being more than an open secret that a good portion of the adult fans following baseball was well aware of the flurry of steroid accusations floating around baseball and football at this time.
MLB banned steroids as early as 1991 without any enforcement to deter their use. Those who followed the game had little doubt that the explosion of HRs magnified as early as 1996 when the Baltimore Orioles' great light-hitting Brady Anderson hit 59 Home Runs. He hit all of 72 Home Runs in his prior ten seasons. That outlier should have been the Red Flag that steroid use had a material effect on the game. Then during the 1998 season, when both Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire broke Roger Maris' Home Run record, most folks were more than suspicious. People wondered why these guys started looking like they had gained 80 pounds of muscle overnight. That still wasn't enough for the Lords of baseball to do anything having consequences. It was obvious that steroids were a game-changer in baseball by that point in time. The cat was out of the bag when a bevy of players who could rarely hit double-digit homers was suddenly cracking 20 homers and some even 30-dingers steroid use was pervasive.
Barry Bonds joined the San Francisco Giants his head appeared to have grown twice as big as when he played in Pittsburgh. It was a near certainty that there was a nexus between steroid use and his prolific Home Run hitting in San Francisco, albeit Bonds did lead the National League in Homers once with the Pirates. But now, Bonds was crushing the ball way over the fence into McCovey Cove on every other at bat. Or so it seemed. Bonds eventually set a new record with 73 Home Runs in 2001. By 2004, Managers preferred intentionally walking Bonds whenever he led off an inning than pitching to him. Bonds garnered a record 232 walks that season.
Sammy Sosa's feat shouldn't be celebrated or even mentioned in tones of achievement not only due to steroid use but because that wasn't quite enough for Sosa. He also reverted to using a corked bat to execute his unimaginable feat of hitting 60 or more HRS in 1998, 1999, and 2001 seasons. Sammy Sosa's name should be limited to being mentioned as an example of cheating on an industrial scale. These steroid-abusing cheaters did more harm to baseball than Pete Rose ever did. He belongs in Cooperstown before any of the steroid abusers. The steroid cheaters should never stain the hallowed walls of the Hall of Fame Museum. Otherwise, the game of baseball will suffer an indelible stain that will sully the game of baseball forever. I cannot celebrate heroics achieved by cheating with performance-enhancing drugs. I've more respect for Dock Ellis pitching a No-Hitter on LSD than any steroid user.
During the 1970 season, Ellis was with his girlfriend in Los Angeles 1970 when he dropped some acid with her. At the time, he mistakenly believed that he had an off day. While his girlfriend was flipping through the newspaper around noon, she discovered that the paper had Ellis listed to pitch the first game of a twilight doubleheader at 6:40 p.m. in San Diego. Ellis managed to get a plane to San Diego and arrived at Jack Murphy Stadium by 4:30 p.m., ample time for him to warm up. Dock Ellis would go on to face 36 San Diego Padres hitters, walking eight and hitting one with a pitch. Ellis struck out six and somehow threw a no-hitter while tripping on LSD. The New York Times reported: "Ellis at one point in the fourth inning saw President Richard Nixon behind home plate and Jimi Hendrix digging in against him while holding a guitar." Dock Ellis didn't have the intent to cheat by using PEDs but somehow pitched a gem under marshmallow skies.
Ryan Howard never received the attention he warranted after his first 8 years he led everyone in baseball history in home runs per at bat and runs batted ins per at bat why is it never reported by the media and the Philadelphia Phillies organization shame on you all.
Building on what I wrote before, I think the Judge case points out that Baseball America would be better served to drop the "risk" qualification and just to give a floor and ceiling grade. Let's say they knew that Judge had Hall of Fame potential but that it was a low chance, and he was probably just going to be a guy. Well, they'd feel like asses rating him #1 in the system off of that potential, but that "80" was still there no matter how one tried to ignore it. Judge was essentially unrateable, because it depended what one meant when rating him. So the best would be to provide an overall grade, a floor, and a ceiling, and let the reader decide his focus. This would operate kind of in the way James provided separate ratings for peak and career value. I'm sure a "floor, middle, ceiling" approach would contain problems of its own, but in this kind of case, it would be better.
I think the problem with trying to predict success in baseball is the importance of skill development and the mental part. There are countless examples of great athletes/talented young players who come way short of their "floor" and so many of the great players far exceeded their supposed "ceilings". I prefer "projections". Maybe it's semantics and I just have a personal cringe factor when I see a second round pitcher out of HS listed with a ceiling of a middle rotation starter.
Good points.
Yeah, when I started following prospects more, this was exactly what I always wanted. Capsule descriptions usually end up giving this info, but I want it up top—I'm not reading capsules for dozens of players on 30 teams, I just want to check out a system or take a quick look at a prospect whose name comes up in an article or broadcast.
Before Judge's 2017 rookie year, Baseball America rated him the 6th-best prospect in the Yankees' system and gave him a "55, risk: high" rating. They didn't provide ratings by tool, as they do now, but they mentioned he had 70 power. The top 10 prospects in the system, in their view, were Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Blake Rutherford, Jorge Mateo, James Kaprelian, Judge, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, and Dustin Fowler. The three pitchers behind Judge also got "55, high risk" ratings.
“You know that 1950s trope about a parent catching their kid smoking and then making them smoke a whole pack. Well, that has to be the one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever heard.”
Wrong here, bud. It actually works. Was up to chain smoking. Then that little exercise took place. Mouth tasted like the inside of a muffler for days. Green for at least 2-3 days. No urge to smoke since.
More to point. Judge has ALWAYS seemed like he’d be THIS guy. Especially during that run up to & through playoffs (before, ahem …). Have ‘jeterated’* about Judge ever since … bc both Oakland AND San Francisco had this kid in their FRONT yards. And did nothing. But that doesn’t take away from authentic fun it is to watch him in box. Watch pitchers both salivate (“look at the size of that strike zone!”) and wrinkle their brows (“is this a trap?”) at same time. Judge just stares out, waiting for the pitch. CRACK!
*did I use this correctly?
How about Adam Dunn? Not sure where they get their measurements, but baseball-reference.com lists him at 6’6” and 285lbs. 🤷♂️
Agree. Always hated the Yankees, always didn't hate, or kinda liked, or—why not—respected, Judge. And it would be nice to have some 60+ homerun marks without the asterisk.
As long as they lose in the playoffs.
The "American League record" angle is key here. No one cares too much about the AL record most of the time. But here we want a redo on the home run record, and this works perfectly. Removing the steroid guys feels too artificial and not official enough, but saying that he's chasing the AL record allows us to compare Judge to Ruth and Maris like we really wanted to anyway. If he breaks it, he'll still get his name in the record books, and it allows us to skip the steroid era discussions that nobody likes.
As a lifelong Yankee hater I too have to grudgingly give Judge his due, especially since he doesn't seem like an arrogant or annoying person. I didn't fully grasp how huge he is until I saw him standing next to my guy, Pete Alonso, while leading off first base. Pete's pretty big, we call him Polar Bear. But when I saw how puny and pathetic he looks next to Judge, all I could say was OMG. Fortunately, my Mets did beat the Yankees twice last week, which makes it a lot less painful for me to acknowledge how awesome Judge is.
Cleveland fans know exactly how tall Judge is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dpkxa0kx0Sc
(In fairness, I think there are a number of regular-sized fielders who might have made that play - it's just that Judge barely had to leap.)
"None of them, not even Howard, was within 30 pounds of Judge. "
Joe is also too young to remember Howard at the end of his career, when he was definitely 282 and then some.
I think the steroid era is being discounted, historically speaking. Sort of like when people talk about the greatest pitching seasons ever, they mention Bob Gibson's 1.12 in 1968, but there aren't many people who say that's the greatest pitching season of all time. And it's because of the era.
Likewise, Pud Galvin had 20.5 bWAR in 1884 when going 46-24 with a 1.99 ERA in 656 innings pitched. Nobody says Pud had the greatest pitching season ever. Even though, by WAR, he clearly did.
The steroid era is like that (for hitters, at least). The Judge HR chase is mostly about reaching 62, not reaching 74. It's like 61 is still a meaningful record, and the Sosa, McGwire, Bonds fiasco of the turn of the 21st century is an entirely different era.
I don't think this is bad, just interesting.
Well 61 is still a record, in a way. Regardless of one's position on the legitimacy of the exploits of Bonds/McGwire/Sosa, 61 remains the American League record for HRs in a single season.
The downside of Judge is YankeeFan now doing the ‘All Rise’ at road games. Yeah no. I’ll stand when I want to thanks.
Also, the insufferable John Sterling HR calls.
But other than those two YankeeHater takes, it really IS incredible.
And if the Yankees DON’T resign him there will be Hell to pay in YankeeLand.
Still think Astros are the better team and should be favored to win AL pennant but it’s clearly an Affirmed and Alydar Triple Crown chase.
You know what Joe, you’re my favorite writer and the Yankees are my favorite team. I appreciate that you can put hatred aside and acknowledge when something is special is happening.
I love you, Joe, so I will say this without snark: I’m going to guess that Frank Howard was indeed “within 30 lbs of” Judge’s listed 282….
I feel like many of us will be making the same disclaimer in our comments, but I concur with the sentiment that Judge seems like a great guy, but why does he have to be a Damn Yankee.
With that out of the way, he is close to being on pace for 150 RBIs too, which hasn't been reached since ARod 15 years ago.
There have been two 60/150 guys, the Babe, of course, and Sosa did it twice. Judge has a real shot to be the third.
He also is on pace for about 140 runs scored. Sosa and the Babe also are the only ones to do 140/60/150.
Of course, the Babe's 1921 season must be mentioned. He "only" had 59 HRS, but he was one homer short of a 175/60/160 season, which is just nuts.
Me and my fellow Yankee fans reading this post:
https://c.tenor.com/YxGsoypAdpAAAAAd/anger-management-jack-nicholson.gif