DPR: Dodgers continue dominant run in the NL West

We are so easily entertained, right? On Thursday, the Dodgers won their fourth consecutive NL West title — 12th in the last 13 years — by pounding the Diamondbacks 8-0. Freddie Freeman hit two home runs. Mookie drove in two more RBI (our hero has 23 RBI in his last 22 games). Shohei blasted his 54th home run of the season. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw six shutout innings. It was essentially the perfect Dodgers game, the sort of game everyone expected from this team when they began the season surrounded by hype.

And what did everyone want to talk about?

Right. Shohei hit his home run into the Diamondbacks’ swimming pool!

“Splish Splash!” MLB crowed.

“Dodgers go swimming for NL West Crown,” ESPN shouted.

I love it so much. We may physically grow up, but deep down, we’re all little kids who get excited when we get to throw coins into a fountain. I think every single ballpark in baseball should have some water feature — like the pool in Arizona, Kansas City’s fountains, or McCovey’s Cove in the San Francisco Bay — where batters can hit home runs that splash.

Someone bring a kiddie pool to the Wrigley bleachers! Someone bring a giant Dunkin’ Donuts cup to the right field seats at Fenway! Someone bring a cooler filled with Coors to Coors Field! Let’s go! Baseball needs more splashes!

As George Bailey says in It’s a Wonderful Life: “Whaddya know about that?” The Detroit Tigers figured out how to win a game — they beat Cleveland 4-2 on Thursday. The formula: Hit three solo home runs, use six pitchers and hold on for dear life. It’s not necessarily the most fuel-efficient way to win, but when you’ve lost eight in a row and you’re watching all your dreams spiral down the drain, you take any victory you can get.

The Tigers may have saved their season with that victory. If Cleveland had completed the sweep, the division would have basically been lost, and the Tigers would have had to stave off the Houston Astros for the final wildcard spot.

Now, though, the division is tied (though Cleveland does have the tiebreak) and the Tigers have a one-game lead over the Astros in the Wildcard. There’s still work to be done in the final weekend, of course, but it’s amazing how much better life looks after a victory. The Tigers are in control of their own destiny again.

Detroit finishes with three in Boston, probably the toughest matchup for the remaining playoff contenders … but the Tigers have a chance to move ahead of the Red Sox in the wildcard race if they win the series.

Cleveland finishes with three at home against the Rangers.

Houston finishes with three in Anaheim against the California Angels.

The mathematical possibilities are endless.

I miss the old-fashioned tie-breaker games. Sure, I realize that with the expansion of playoffs and the season ending later and later, MLB calculated that there’s no time for Game 163. But I miss them terribly. Deciding the playoffs by some tiebreaker system is a FOOTBALL thing. And you get it with football — with only 17 games*, you’re going to have lots of ties.

But baseball? 162 games! If you have two teams tied at the end of the season, you should make time for a one-game playoff. They’re exciting. They’re conclusive. They’re fun.

But, no. The Yankees and Blue Jays go into the final weekend tied. New York plays at home against Baltimore, Toronto plays at home against the Rays, there’s a decent chance they will still be tied when the season ends.

If that happens, the Blue Jays will win the division and get the first-round bye. Why? Because back before Independence Day, when the season was really just getting going, they swept the Yankees in four games.

Look, I’m totally with our pal Joe Sheehan, who often writes about how every game counts in baseball, whether it’s played in March or September. But you’re telling me that two teams who go through all the trials and tribulations of a 162-game season and end up tied should have their fate determined by games played months earlier when the stakes weren’t clear at all? You’re telling me that’s better than a one-game playoff?

It ain’t. Give us the one-game tiebreaker again. Bucky Dent awaits.

We’ve got another wild finish in the National League Wildcard race where the Mets and Reds both won on Thursday — Francisco Lindor went 30-30 for the Mets (more on that in a minute), and the Reds squeaked out a 2-1 victory over the Pirates — and now we go into the final weekend like so:

It seems like “Advantage Mets.” But who knows? I know some Mets fans believe. I heard from the most optimistic Mets fan in the world, Brilliant Reader Pat, who sent along a text exchange he had with his daughter that included super-positive thoughts like these:

Daughter: We started strong. Ugh.

Me: We will come back!

Daughter: Are you watching? Cause it got worse.

Me: We will come back!

Daughter: Looking bleak.

Me: We will come back! Cheer better!

Pat asks us all: “So what do you think of my using the Mets to impress upon my daughter the power of positive thinking?”

That’s right, there are now five players this year who have hit 30 home runs and stolen 30 bases — that’s a record. And incredibly, none of the five are named Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. or Bobby Witt Jr..

The five are: 

I was harsher than I meant to be when I talked about losing faith in bWAR on Thursday, in part because of the sizable gap between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh (9.2 to 7.2). The gap is so much smaller on Fangraphs (Judge leads 9.6-9.0) and that speaks more to how I see the MVP race.

I definitely meant it to come across as more jokey and jovial (bWAR I can’t quit you!) than it did. But you know, we don’t always come across the way we like. Look at Bill Belichick.

In any case, I heard from Baseball Reference’s Sean Forman, who explains the gap like so:

“The difference in Raleigh’s WAR on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference is almost all related to framing runs. We don’t include framing runs. We are all essentially in agreement on their relative value for batting, base running and position.

“In order for Raleigh to be close to Judge,” Sean continues, “you need to believe he’s one of the ten best fielders in the majors overall, and that framing metrics accurately represent the value of stolen balls and strikes.”

That is a good explanation. Fangraphs has Raleigh as the eighth most valuable defender in baseball — and the second most valuable defensive catcher behind Alejandro Kirk — and that mostly comes down to his ability to frame pitches. Baseball Reference doesn’t include framing runs and calculates Raleigh’s defensive WAR at 0.0. 

As the inventor of WAR, Tom Tango often says that WAR is a framework. bWAR and fWAR differ because the creators hold different perspectives of the game. If you believe that Raleigh is a great defender because of his framing talents, this is a tight race. If you believe that Raleigh is a perfectly fine catcher but not elite, then the offensive gap between Judge and Raleigh is way too much for Big Dumper to overcome, even with those 60 dingers.