No. 2: Atlanta Braves and No. 1: Los Angeles Dodgers

OK, here we are at the end of the baseball previews! And only a couple of weeks into the season!

As with every crazy project we try here at JoeBlogs, I liked doing this a lot, and I also learned some stuff along the way about what you want as readers and what I can reasonably do as one person. Obviously, your opinions going forward are always welcome in the comments. I do think I want to do these sorts of projects a bit differently; I want to double down on some of the quirkiness and maybe do less of the nuts-and-bolts preview stuff since that’s such a moving target.

Speaking of moving targets, you might have noticed if you were following closely that my top 100 players list had some repeat numbers and some omissions. That’s because I (somewhat foolishly) kept adjusting it throughout, based on players signing and injuries and late-breaking news, etc. My top 100 list now—which I will publish in full soon!—is quite a bit different than it was when I first put it together a few weeks ago, and it continues to change (what do I do with Spencer Strider?).

So, today, I’m just going to publish the top two teams’ top 100 players without a number—let’s offer a little suspense for the big reveal!

Which reminds me, I’ve been meaning to put up this poll for a while. My question for you is this: Which of these JoeBlogs features do you like the most? I imagine that part of why you’re here is that you enjoy the variety—and we’ll keep on following the wobbly direction of my never-resting mind, as I wouldn’t know how else to do this—but I am curious about which of these choices you’d like to see more often:

If there’s something else that you’d like to see more often, of course, the comments are open.

A quick reminder: I’ll be in Dayton (well, technically, Centerville) on Sunday, April 14, to talk some baseball. Would love to see you there.

Also, I’m going to be in Rancho Mirage, Calif., on April 18. For those of you who are true WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL insiders, my buddy Jim—who I (along with Dwight Evans) beat in the most world-famous Red Sox-Reds Strat-O-Matic ever—is planning to be there, too, probably to challenge me to a rematch. You can call the Jewish Federation of the Desert* at (760) 324-4737 for more information.

*Pretty much all my life, I’ve been of the belief that we have the wrong spellings for both “desert” and “dessert.” The first, of course, is the sandy Lawrence of Arabia land, and the second is a chocolate cake with raspberry sauce, but I think the spellings should be reversed. It has always seemed to me that the extra S in “dessert” should represent the sand and sun and snakes and scorpions you find there. I first had this thought at, like, age 5, and I’ve never shaken it.**

**And, yes, fine, I get that the noun “desert” comes from the same Latin word as the verb “desert”—deserere, meaning “to abandon, leave, forsake.” It’s abandoned land. I get it. And nobody wants to abandon, leave or forsake dessert. Again, I get it. I still want the extra S for the Sahara.

All right, let’s get to our top two teams! Remember, I’m starting off with their records, what they did in the postseason and where Baseball America ranked them in their talent rankings. Also, our intrepid editor, Larry, is tied up, so apologies for the inevitable string of errors that will follow (and have already been committed).

No. 2: Atlanta Braves

Predicted record: 14 games ahead of the Phillies

2023: 104-58 (lost in NLDS). Talent Ranking: 30th
2022: 101-61 (lost in NLDS). Talent Ranking: 22nd
2021: 88-73 (Won World Series). Talent ranking: 6th
2020: 34-25 (lost in NLCS) Talent ranking: 4th
2019: 97-65 (lost in NLCS). Talent ranking 4th

Top 100 players (alphabetical order)

Ronald Acuña Jr. — Signed from Venezuela
Ozzie Albies — Signed from Curacao
Max Fried — Trade with San Diego (free agent at end of year)
Michael Harris II — Third-round pick
Sean Murphy — Trade with Oakland
Matt Olson — Trade with Oakland
Austin Riley — 41st pick in the draft
Spencer Strider* — Fourth-round pick

*For now, at least.

The Braves have changed the way teams do business. You saw some of that just this week, when Boston signed 23-year-old centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela to an eight-year, $50 million contract, even though he had played only 37 games in the big leagues. Scouts marvel at Rafaela's tools, particularly his centerfield play, but there remain real questions about the bat and whether or not he can stop swinging at everything thrown near him. The Red Sox have chosen to believe in him, and they locked him up until he’s 31 years old.

If it turns out that Rafaela cannot stick as a hitter, they’ll be paying a back-loaded $6 or so million a year (on average) until 2031, a not-insubstantial amount of money, but also not a backbreaking amount for a team like the Red Sox.

If it turns out that Rafaela becomes a good player but maybe not quite an every-day starter, let’s say a Kevin Kiermaier-type player, well, Kiermaier made roughly $52 million in his first eight seasons. With inflation and the way salaries will continue to go up, you’d have to think that the deal would save the Red Sox $10 million or so, at least.

If Rafaela becomes a superstar—there are those who like throwing around the Mookie Betts comparisons, because of his defensive versatility, good speed, natural power and 5-foot-9 frame—the Red Sox could save a hundred million dollars or more, plus keep Rafaela for two years beyond his free agency.

You can see pretty clearly what the team is betting on here.

The Braves are not the first team to play this game… but they are the ones who have taken it to the extreme. When you count team options, they have no fewer than seven core players signed through 2027 on deals that look now to be incredibly team-friendly. I mean, using FanGraphs value estimates, here’s how much these players have ALREADY been worth on their contracts, which still have years and years to go:

Acuña — Deal through 2028 w/options: $124m. Value already: $219.5 million

Albies — Deal through 2027 w/options: $45m. Value already: $113.3 million

Harris II — Deal through 2032 w/options: $97m. Value already: $34 million

Murphy — Deal through 2029 w/options: $88m. Value already: $39 million

Olson — Deal through 2030 w/options: $188m. Value already: $81.1 million

Riley — Deal through 2033 w/options: $222m. Value already: $44.3 million

Strider — Deal through 2029 w/options: $97m. Value already: $44.1 million

OK, adding things up—there are anywhere from four to 10 years left on every one of these deals (counting this season), and while the Braves have laid out $861 million for these players over the life of their contracts, they have already gotten more than $500 million in value. It’s mind-boggling how successful this strategy has been for the Braves, and, yes, you better believe teams all around baseball will try to copy it.

The Braves have Acuña locked up for years to come. (Kevin Djansezia/Getty Images)

But, there is something more to say about this than a simple discussion of the Braves’ financial wizardry: The Braves did not give a Ceddanne Rafaela deal to ANY of these guys. That is to say, they did not bet any of these sums on a fledgling prospect who had not proven anything at the big-league level.

• They signed Ronald Acuña Jr. after he had won the 2018 Rookie of the Year award. He wowed everybody by hitting .293/.366/.552 in 111 games after being the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball.

• They signed Albies after his age 21 season, when he hit 40 doubles and 24 homers, stole 14 bases and was named an All-Star.

• They signed Harris II in August of his Rookie of the Year season, when he hit .297, slugged .514, hit 19 home runs, stole 20 bases and played top-level centerfield defense.

• They signed Murphy after trading for him. Murphy had already won a Gold Glove as a catcher, and he received a down-ballot MVP vote in 2022 even while playing for a 100-loss A’s team.

• They signed Olson, an Atlanta native, after trading for him. He had hit 39 home runs for Oakland in 2021 and 142 home runs for the A’s over five seasons.

• They signed Riley in August of his age-25 season; he had finished seventh in the MVP voting the year before and would finish sixth in the MVP voting that season.

• They signed Strider after his rookie season; he had gone 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 131 innings. He had finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting behind his teammate Michael Harris II.

In other words, none of these were longshot bets. Yes, anytime you give a long-term deal to a young player, you’re gambling on physical and mental health and on the player’s ability to make adjustments. But essentially, what happened here is that the Braves developed and acquired a core set of brilliant players they really liked, and they sold each one of them on the idea that they could be a part of something special. Did the team take on some risk?* Sure, some; I mean, we’re seeing now that Strider has some sort of elbow issue that nobody really wants to talk about.

*As for the players, I predict that every one of them will, in the end, leave money on the table—in the cases of Acuña and Albies, at least, they will have left an unimaginable sum of money on the table. People feel differently about that.

When you have players this good, it seems to me, the risk for the team is pretty minimal and the potential payoff is astronomical.

But that’s the key, isn’t it? The players have to be that good. It reminds me of something I heard Chris Rock say about comedy: You can do the act a bunch of different ways, but in the end, it all still comes down to the jokes. Same here. The Braves have used very early long-term contracts and club options to build a superpower team that should be good for years to come. Shrewd, no doubt. But, you know what? It still comes down to finding really good players.

No. 1: Los Angeles Dodgers

Predicted record: 100-plus wins for fifth full season in a row

2023: 100-62 (lost in NLDS). Talent Ranking: 3rd
2022: 111-51 (lost in NLDS). Talent Ranking: 8th
2021: 106-56 (lost in NLCS). Talent ranking: 9th
2020: 43-17 (won World Series). Talent ranking: 3rd
2019: 106-56 (lost in NLDS). Talent ranking 10th

Top 100 players

Mookie Betts — Trade with Boston (signed long-term)
Freddie Freeman — Signed as free agent
Tyler Glasnow — Trade with Tampa Bay (signed long-term)
Shohei Ohtani — Signed as free agent
Will Smith* — 32nd pick in 2016 draft
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Signed out of Japan

*If you type “Will Smith” into Baseball-Reference’s search engine and hit enter, the top entry is this Will Smith. Our hero, Will Smith, is the SEVENTEENTH player listed. I get that there are quicks with search, but, I mean, the guy already has to share Google with a face-slapping, Oscar-winning rapper, actor and phenomenon… let’s give Dodger Will some respect here.

Andrew Friedman took over as president of baseball operations with the Dodgers in October 2014. The Dodgers have been the best franchise in baseball ever since.

The Dodgers were a pretty successful franchise before Friedman took over 10 years ago (after he and a group of young strivers pulled off the Tampa Bay miracle). The Dodgers had won 90-plus games and the NL West title the previous two seasons. But when you look back at the 2014 Dodgers, you see that they were Clayton Kershaw PLUS a jumble of stars PLUS players who’d had better days PLUS a couple of young guys, including the Yasiel Puig Experience. The farm system had a couple of gems in it—particularly a 20-year-old Corey Seager—but it wasn’t exactly bountiful.

It all painted a sort of cloudy picture. What were the Dodgers? It had only been a couple of years since the whole Frank McCourt fiasco. In 2015, they had the highest payroll in baseball history up to that point, won another NL West title, lost in the playoffs again; they seemed like a team in perpetual limbo.

To me, what Friedman has done in Los Angeles is remarkable on a larger scale than just winning and losing. Yes, the winning and losing parts are obvious. On the winning side, the Dodgers have won the division every single season but one* in the Friedman era, they have won 100-plus games in five of his eight full seasons and been to three World Series and won one of them. On the losing side, they have been upset in the playoffs numerous times, including each of the last three seasons, leading to much consternation.

*The one time the Dodgers lost the division title was in 2021, when they won 106 and the Giants won 107. That should go down as one of the great pennant races in baseball history, but because of baseball’s playoff format, it’s utterly irrelevant, as both teams made the playoffs, and the Dodgers ended up beating the Giants in a five-game series.

I think Friedman’s greater success is that he now has the Dodgers representing excellence on pretty much every level. They’re the team every free agent wants to join. They could not have more star power. They annually have one of the best farm systems in baseball. Their manager, Dave Roberts, is a wonderful guy, and he has the best winning percentage for any manager in baseball history. They play in a magnificent, old stadium that feels historic and current at the same time, and they draw the most fans by a lot, and they connect to a glorious past with Jackie and Campy and Sandy and Vin, and they have three of the best players this century hitting back-to-back-to-back, and Keith Law ranks five of their prospects in the top 100 this year, including 19-year-old Jose De Paula, who Keith writes this about:

The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak.

Friedman has made the Dodgers seemingly slump-proof—it’s hard to even imagine how things could go sideways for this organization.

Well, there is actually one way I can imagine: The Dodgers face, by far, the biggest expectations in all of baseball. The Yankees and Red Sox used to be in this stratosphere, and there’s still plenty of pressure in both places, but the Yankees’ fan base seems unconvinced by the team's leadership, and the Red Sox fan base seems unsure what even to think about their team’s ambitions.

Dodgers fans expect World Series championships, nothing less. And, as we’ve seen, the Dodgers have not delivered championships. Each heartbreak has had its own plot, but in the end, they have won just the one World Series, and that was during the COVID year, which stands apart from the rest, and every year, people demand that Roberts get fired and the team do drastic things and that Friedman and his crew make some stuff happen.

The Dodgers have responded to this by indeed making some stuff happen… this offseason they signed Shohei to the biggest contract in American sports history and they picked up Yamamoto as an added bonus and they broke the $300 million payroll mark, even if they aren’t paying Ohtani until like 2097.

I do love both of those moves. But whether I love them or not, the Dodgers had no real choice but to make them. The more times they lose to the Padres or Diamondbacks or Nationals in the five-game Division Series, the more pressure they will feel to break through, the more desperately they will go after the title.

Desperation often leads to mistakes. You easily can see the Dodgers winning the title this year. They’re my No. 1 team in baseball. But you can also see the season ending in crushing disappointment with a Division Series loss to, who even knows? And if that happens, well, that’s the danger time.