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Craig from Bend's avatar

Eric Hosmer as "Nice career but not quite HoF?" How about "nice World Series, but besides that an average first baseman." Look at his stats page. The guy has a career OPS+ of 108. As a first baseman. He has a total of 19.2 WAR for his entire career.

Barry L's avatar

Have you seen Hosmer’s wife? He deserves to be in the HOF for her alone!

tim miller's avatar

I still think Stanton, despite the myriad of injuries, will sail in. Such a strange career. Probably should have 500 humerus now. Boggles my mind seeing all the 27 Homer type seasons in like half a season. He might be the first player to miss 35 percent of potential games played to make the hof. Not a Yankee fan b u t his baseball reference page boggles my mind at times. And I really root for Kimbrel. I thought he turned a corner last year making the all star team and then after the trade that e.r.a. skyrocketed. Still has a shot at 400 saves. Whatever that is worth. Still holding out hope he can get it together and get to 500. Arbitrary number but darn it is aesthically pleasing hahah

EJG's avatar

b1992...What might have been...Jose Fernandez

Mark Walpole's avatar

One last thing: WAR is okay, I guess, but for a 'small market' team like the Reds, the advanced metric that really matters is PEACE, Potential Earning against Current Earnings. This explains why Nick Castellanos is not on the team this year (the Reds gave him his 2021 team MVP award when he came to town last week). He qualified for free agency, the Reds made an offer of sorts, and when he stopped laughing, he signed with the Phillies. His WAR was great but his PEACE was a problem.

Mark Walpole's avatar

I don't understand why pitching and position coaches who are successful baseball lifers don't get a place in the Hall of Fame. I would nominate Leo Mazzone. I believe he got the Braves starting rotation through three seasons (or was it five?) without any one of them missing a start! By contrast, the 2022 Reds (my team) has used 14 starting pitchers (and 14 relievers) and they haven't even got to September call-ups!

On another topic: read Joe Posnanski's 'The Baseball 100.' It's astounding. It's like he was a pop singer and he goes into the studio. His producer says on his next album he's going to cover 100 pop songs almost every one of which his audience knows. He has to come up with interesting arrangements, find something new in each song, and invent 100 different hooks, one for each. That's what Joe has done. Every essay in the book has a different hook. I don't know how he did it.

He may have a beautiful wife; children curing cancer and ending world hunger; and a wall and bookshelf covered in plaques and awards, but of all his achievements, that should be the one he is most proud of. Read the book. See what I mean.

Rob Smith's avatar

A couple of things about Freddie Freeman. He started in the league at age 19, and he has a very simple, compact swing. He barely takes a stride, and sometimes doesn't take one at all. He drops the bat into the zone & makes contact. Obviously, he hits the ball to all fields and with power. So his swing is one that should age well & allow him to be very productive for a few more years. So, he'll compile bigger numbers than people might think that he will. He walks a lot and runs the bases well too. I think he'll hit over 400 HRs & will pretty easily get into the mid 60s WAR.

Ross's avatar

I think I'd put Realmuto in the "not impossible" category. He's still good, still only early-30s, hasn't lost his athleticism and is athletic enough to play another position as he ages. And has a legitimate claim as the best catcher in the league over the past 5 years. So if he has another 4-5 good years, he would have a legitimate shot.

Joe C's avatar

Puig was such a joy to watch. And if you follow him on social media it seems like he's gotten some good therapy, and made a ton of adjustments to mature while still keeping his exuberance. I just really hope the sexual assault stuff isn't true (and there's no reason to believe it isn't) - if it weren't for that it'd be such a good story, but that's an awful lot of harm to atone for.

Ben's avatar

I don’t know if Chris Sale qualifies as a what might have been, but there’s another guy who was on the path at 29 and then his body fell apart. :-(

Eric Monacelli's avatar

DeGrom, Ohtani, and Trout will be something to watch. My three favorite players currently playing on such legendary paths. Thanks for the great read, as always, Joe.

Benjamin, J's avatar

I want to add a few words for Jose Ramirez.

First Jose Ramirez is a third baseman and unfortunately he wasn't great immediately like Manny Machado. Then when he became a great player he shared the spotlight with Francisco Lindor, although they're both about as good (lately Jose Ramirez has been better: he's clearly a better hitter). Then, when Jose peaked, he's gotten unlucky: first for having to share a peak with Mookie Betts & Mike Trout, but he's also been underappreciated. Here are his top finishes:

2017: Jose had a good year, I think he was every bit as good as Jose Altuve. But Altuve had the shiny .346 batting average, and stole 30 bases. Jose was probably the better defender that year, and despite the lack of steals was still potent on the base paths. Fine, call it a draw (although the voting wasn't close and Aaron Judge had a crazy offensive year)

2018: Mookie & Trout were Mookie & Trout. Jose didn't have a chance, but he was excellent. He didn't even get a first place vote, he finished third kind of as default.

2020: This will be the year which, in retrospect, people will shake their heads on. Jose was every bit as good of an offensive player in 2020 as Jose Abreu was, and let's be real here: Jose is an indifferent first baseman who doesn't run the bases. Jose Ramirez is a terrific third baseman who can run the bases well. Then again DJ LaMaheiu had a crazy 60 games offensively.

2021: Here again, Jose didn't deserve to beat Othani, but I think Jose was every bit as good as any other position player in the race (he finished 6th).

Despite the high MVP finishes: I don't think Jose Ramirez gets the respect he deserves. The most attention he's every really gotten is when everyone got excited about Jose getting traded, and then everyone started salivating at the thought of him playing for their team. Of course Jose signed with Cleveland, and I suspect he'll remain forgotten again.

Personally I think Jose Ramirez is well on his way to the Hall of Fame.

Al Kallhoff's avatar

Yordano Ventura was a joy to watch, and his abilities on the mound were lights-out when he had them harnessed. This one still hurts and the Royals certainly haven't been relevant since then.

Simon's avatar

Roger Clemens threw a bat at Mike Piazza.

I laughed for a while. This joke is NOT getting old!

Crypto SaaSquatch (Artist FKA)'s avatar

‘Roid rage. As if it didn’t exist.

Rick B's avatar

Not just a bat but a jagged broken bat!

tim miller's avatar

The fact clemens was throwing in the upper 80s in his late 40s after retiring and pitching the minors as a publicity stunt still gets me. I think he hit 88. To throw that hard at an age you've been retired at foe years? I dk why would he need roids. I gave credit to his split finger development late in his career for the otherworldly seasons in Toronto and Houston. That pitch was devasting. I think new York just didn't fit his personality and it affected his performance. I swear he seemed to always be bitching about something in New york. The bat thing was so utterly bizarre. The look on piazzas face should forever be a meme outline a wtf situation lol

Nato Coles's avatar

ONCE AGAIN I AM ASKING for the WAR baseline for catchers to be adjusted to account for the fact that someone has to be the catcher. As such, I believe that if he should accrue at least 40 or maybe 45 WAR, and remember that he's only 32 this year, Salvador Perez should have a much higher chance of making the HoF than he in reality probably does. His catching skills, leadership, World Series leadership, career longevity, durability, and power should make him a fifth-ballot outer-circle Hall of Famer. Maybe one day I won't be an old man shouting at the cloud servers on which baseball-reference and fangraphs reside. Maybe.

Anyway, I love these. Totally agree that if Ohtani just does (waves arms wildly) ALL OF THIS for another 7 to 10 years, he's in. Another one to talk a little about is Jacob deGrom. Look, the Mets are one of my rooting interests; I like the guy. But he's 34. Sure, he could Verlander up and put up great latter-career numbers. Verlander, too, had some injury issues in his 30s. But by his age 34 season, he had pitched twice the innings (just about) as deGrom has. I worry deGrom has just started too late to even make 60 WAR. He'll need more good breaks than Posnanski thinks, I think, to be viewed as a true Hall of Famer. My prediction: he, like the similarly awesome and oft-injured Byron Buxton, will end their careers beloved by their teams yet with all involved wondering "what might have been."

KHAZAD's avatar

I love Salvy. He will be in the Royals Hall the first day he is eligible. But he is not a hall of famer, or particularly close. Even if he makes 40 WAR, (He has 30.6 right now) that puts him in the Darrel Porter, Jason Kendall, Jim Sundberg range, and absolutely no on is putting any of them in the Hall.

Hell, I don't think Molina (42.1) belongs. He will get there because of his loud BFIB Cardinal mob, and the fact that Fangraphs (whose WAR, particularly form the defensive side, sucks) rates him as the best defensive player at any position in the history of baseball. (Ridiculous, but true.)

I do think there should be a couple more catchers in. Thurman Munson, perhaps Posada. (Posada is about where that line is for me.) I think Gene Tenace is a very underrated play who could have deserved if he hadn't played 40% if his innings elsewhere, and that Wally Schang is a decent veterans committee option.

I will always have fond memories of Salvy. But he will have to play well, to a late age, and stay at catcher to have even an outside shot.

Benjamin, J's avatar

This seems strange to me. Suppose you did make that adjustment: there would then be A LOT of other catchers who also get this same benefit. There are 15 catchers ahead of Salvy not in the Hall of Fame (excluding Thurmon Munson, Buster Posey & Joe Mauer). I don't see why Salvy is ahead of them. I wouldn't put Salvy over Russel Martin, or Brian McCann, or Jorge Posada.

Posada is the instructive example in my mind.

tim miller's avatar

I really think Perez gets in. The counting stats catchers have the hardest time accumulating are 2000 hits, a 1000 runs and rbis and 300 Homer's. To me it's such a fun thing to research. Yadier has the hits and rbis. Perez has a shot and the 300 hr 1000 rbi mark. None of these guys can run for shit so that's out of the picture but with their leadership on teams and all the awards plus being the key to world series titles they are going in. No doubt. .it still boggles my mind that Kendall is 4th in all time hits. Man he played through so much pain in his final years. I remember he had to prop up his useless injured elbow to help throw out runners and he the league in cs percentage. Kendall was an absolute blast to play when Oakland would play the rangers. He was a punch and judy hitter by that time but he was the definition of a gamer and leader. When he retired at 35 that sucked lol. Not a hall of fame but Kendall needs more love.

Benjamin, J's avatar

FYI Catchers with 1,000 RBIs who aren't in the Hall of Fame:

Jorge Posada (1,065)

Lance Parrish (1,070)

Victor Martinez (1,170)

Brian McCann (1,018)

Again, I just don't think there's much correlation between a catcher's RBI total and whether they make the HOF

Benjamin, J's avatar

I don't think Salvy has a prayer at getting 300 HR. If he finishes with 24 HR (about his pace) he'll be at 224 for his career. If he plays 5 more years he'd have to average 15 HR a year to reach in his age: 33, 34, 35, 36 & 37 seasons. I just don't see it. He'd have to stay really healthy to do so, and that's just not something catchers tend to do. I also think the RBI number is completely irrelevant.

I would add: even if Salvy DID reach 300 HR, I don't think that would make him a Hall of Famer. He has two seasons with a bWAR over 3 (lots right below 3). I think he's a great player, but falls short. The WAR7 average for catchers is 34.7 roughly, and Salvy is at like 23 right now. He'd have to play closer to his 2021 level for several more seasons to reach that, and frankly that just rarely happens for catchers.

I did an analysis a long time ago on WHEN players in the Hall of Fame had their 7 best seasons (meaning what decade: 20's, 30's, 40's, etc) and Catchers were HEAVILY skewed towards their 20s (I mean all of them were besides starting pitchers), but only one catcher had more WAR7 seasons in his 30s than his 20s and that was Gabby Harnett.

It's not impossible: but it's really unlikely.

Bjorn Mesunterbord's avatar

I subscribed just so I could say this:

* Anthony Rizzo will be elected to the Hall of Fame, by whatever version of the Veteran's Committee exists in 2060. His charity work and his overcoming cancer, and his exposure to NY media, added to a strong, consistent career and that Cubs championship, will put him over the edge.

* Kris Bryant signed with Colorado so he could add to his offensive numbers. Hasn't worked out so far, but with a strong second half to his career, he could be the Adrian Beltre of 2032.

* If glove work and base-running could get you into the Hall of Fame, Javier Baez would be a first-ballot lock. Unfortunately, they don't.

* Willson Contreras is a three-time All Star, a World Series champion, and he's having the best offensive year of his career. If he keeps it up, he could climb up your rankings.

* 500 non-steroid home runs still puts you in the top 30 ALL TIME. If that's not a Hall of Fame career, then the term has no meaning. (In other words, WTF is going on with Gary Sheffield's case?)

Owen Ranger's avatar

*If Rizzo finishes his career around 50 WAR and <350 home runs, it will be pretty hard even for a Veterans' Committee to justify him, but I take your point that it's possible.

*KB absolutely has to have at least four and preferably five fully healthy compiling seasons in his thirties to get within reach.

*4-5 seasons like 2019 or 2021 for Báez (he doesn't even have to repeat his 2018 MVP runner-up season) and he would be a VERY interesting candidate.

*Agreed on Contreras.

*Sheffield has had PED questions brought up with regard to his case.

Bjorn Mesunterbord's avatar

* Did not know about Sheffield and PED. Thanks.

* Baez will never have the plate discipline to repeat those years. (During the 2016 World Series, when the Cubs were down 3 games to 1 and analysts were composing their obituaries, one wag said that Baez would swing at anything, even the dot over the "i" in his first name.)

* Agree on Bryant: he needs several full, healthy, productive seasons to get back in the conversation. I think he has it in him.

* If Rizzo can get back to cranking out 30 HR / 90+ RBI every year as he did last decade, his intangibles will pull him over the line. Or so it says here...

Crypto SaaSquatch (Artist FKA)'s avatar

Cespedes was better than Puig. Careers aside both have incredible (& different) stories for paths taken to MLB.

At one time had chance to visit Havana. Took some hats. Of course Dodger hats were popular, but it was bc of their history. See below. The surprise? Popularity of A’s hats. Bc of Cespedes.

https://www.walteromalley.com/en/dodgertown/the-dodgers-and-cuba/cuba