Vada Pinson was my favorite player when I first started following baseball. He had a spectacular start to his career at a very young age. I never understood why his career numbers became so average after the age of 30.
Zero question that Bernie was a HoF player. None. He was the difference in a lot of playoff games for that dynasty. In this world of counting stats it makes no sense Hernandez isn’t in the HoF. Posey definitely in ahead of Molina, and that’s not a slight to Molina. Posey not only was an offensive force, but — Joe will appreciate this — worked magic behind the plate ‘framing strikes’ for his battery. And if Molina had to catch Lincecum, well what would his defensive stats look like? Fun read.
I associate Staub with the Tigers, even though he was there only a few years, because that's when I started paying attention and he was my favorite player on those late-'70s teams.
Staub's Transactions section in his Baseball Reference page is wild. Staub stated out with the Colt .45s/Astros in 1963, where he was a teammate of Joe Morgan playing outdoors before the Astrodome was built. Before the 1969 season he was traded to the Expos for Jesus Alou and Donn Clendenon, who refused to report and was replaced by Jack Billingham, who later was a frontline pitcher on those late-'70s Tigers teams with Staub after picking up a couple of rings with the Big Red Machine. At the beginning of the 1972 season Staub was traded to the Mets for Tim Foli, Ken Singleton and Mike Jorgenson (who later was a teammate of Staub with the Mets in the early 1980s), then after the 1975 season he was traded from the Mets to the Tigers for Mickey Lolich. The Tigers traded him back to Montreal during the 1979 season for basically nothing, which kinda sounds like it was a favor to him. After that season, Montreal traded him to Texas where he spent the 1980 season, then signed with the Mets again before retiring after the 1985 season as a teammate of Doc Gooden.
Staub was named to 6 All-Star teams and got MVP votes 7 different years, his best finish being 5th in 1978 with Detroit. That was the year Jim Rice beat Ron Guidry's 25-3 record. Larry Hisle of Milwaukee (he had been traded from Minnesota right before the season started) was third and Amos Otis of KC was fourth. Reggie Jackson was 17th. 36 players got MVP votes that year, with Rick Burleson and Frank Tanana picking up 1 vote each. Only three teams weren't represented at all in that vote -- Toronto, Oakland and the White Sox. Leon Roberts of Seattle somehow got 3 down-ballot votes. Ken Singleton got 2 votes as a member of the Orioles.
(Also, that year Dave Parker won the NL MVP with 21 of 24 1st place votes. One other player got the other 3 -- Larry Bowa. What!?)
Kenny Lofton was my favorite player growing up, so my opinions are loaded with a big heap of nostalgia bias. BUT I cannot understand how the BWAA consolidated so successfully around Tim Raines without any of that energy transferring to Kenny Lofton. Their key strengths are so similar and their career numbers - both traditional and WAR - are extremely close even though Kenny played 3 or 4 fewer seasons. Both had their signature best seasons with one franchise, with Kenny having the advantage of being on a regular playoff team.
So I get why Lofton got lost in the shuffle that first season on the ballot. What I don't get is why baseball writers haven't pushed his name more, especially given the attention they paid Tim Raines.
Joe, unintentionally I think, hit on a point that drives me nuts when discussing the PED era. Yes, the offensive environment was bananas, which makes guys like Delgado, Lofton, and Berkman seem less impressive, but that just means they WERE less impressive than their peers and in order to argue for their inclusion, you'd have to say that WAY more people were using PEDs and those three definitively weren't or that there was way more causing the offensive spike than steroids and where they fit is where they fit on a talent level.
You can't handwave them away as second tier hitters compared to their peers because of steroids but then also say "Oh, it was just Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod driving those numbers"
Because WAR is a counting stat, perhaps it should carry more weight that Posey has more WAR than he does in 65.5% of his PAS. Or Thurman Munson, career cut short by tragedy, who has more in 69% of the PAS. (I don't want to hear about Bill James not liking Munson anymore, because his antipathy for Munson is pathological, and has resulted in some of his most shameful statements. He clearly is not objective. At all.)
Sure WIn Shares, which is counted by seasons, probably has Molina ahead. You can be quite a bit worse and get more in 19 seasons than 11 or 12.
I have been watching baseball for 50 years, and in that time, Yadier Molina is the most overrated player, and it is not particularly close. But Fangraphs hinky framing stat (Fangraphs has Molina as the best defensive player of all time. Not catcher. Any Player. Better than Ozzie Smith, for the Cardinal fans. Better by a lot than every player you have ever thought might be the greatest, for everyone else.) and the PR (and backlash against any media member who infers that he might not be a first ballot guy) of the BFIB have almost ensured his election.
He was a very good player for a very long time. Cardinal hall of famer for sure. But he was just that. Not a great one. Closer to Salvador Perez than he is to Munson or Posey. (I would put him above Salvy - but he is still more in that league than he is to those other guys) Jason Kendall with better press clippings.
Here's an interesting fact about Joe Mauer: In 2009 he led the league in all three slash lines--batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. How rare is that? Babe Ruth did it once. Among the players to never do that are Aaron, Mays, Pujols, Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn. Yastremski, Cabrera, and George Brett did it once each. No catcher other than Mauer has ever done it. As far as I can tell, since 1920, the only other catcher to ever lead the league in ANY of the three slash categories was Buster Posey, who led in batting average once. In addition to that triple crown year, Mauer led in average twice and on-base percentage once.
In the two most important defensive positions of catcher and shortstop, these great players never led their league in ANY of the three slash categories, let alone all three in one year--Alex Rodriguez, Jeter, Mike Piazza, Bench, Berra, Cal Ripken Jr., and Ernie Banks.
As far as I can tell, since 1920 the only players to lead their league in all three slash lines in the same year more than once are Stan Musial (twice) and Ted Williams (6 times).
Al Oliver really was a victim of labor issues. In 1972 the season started late and he lost 20 games and 1981 was interrupted for 54 games. That’s maybe 90 hits. With a contract for 1986 he probably ends that year around 2900.
On the day Thurman Munson died, my foster father came out on the porch and told me. I thought it was a cruel joke because he disliked the Yankees (Red sox fan, more or less- he was one of the many who left the dodgers when they left Brooklyn) I cried when I learned it was true.
So funny that you would question Keith Hernandez's aptitude as a third hitter. He took great pride in that, and is insufferable on the air advocating that contact hitters like himself should hit 3rd. If you read his ghost-written autobiographies, even during his career, this was a very important concept in his mind, that he was a third hitter. Managers would have removed him from the third spot at their peril.
When it comes to Al Oliver, I can't get past only one season of 50 walks or more, and only three of 40 walks or more. Only two of 20 homers or more, too.
What I think has hurt Clark is that he was thought of as a big disappointment after 1991. His numbers stack up, but he didn't continue the trajectory commonly assumed for him. He was in the top 5 in MVP four times from '87-'91, then only got votes in one other year. He was 2nd in his league in OPS in '88, '89, and '91, 8th in '92, then never again in the top 10. He hit 20 home runs only twice in a season after '91. From '87-'91 cumulatively, he was 5th in the NL in home runs. A lot of players had their home run totals go up, and he had the normal drop-off with age, not buoyed by the steroid era. So, when I thought of Clark, I thought of the early Clark, and not "Hall of Famer." This irrationally plagued the memory of Tim Raines a bit, too, although I guess Raines was more remarkable at his peak than Clark.
Harold Baines probably looks better in that comparison with Staub than he should because Staub's stats are neutralized but Baines's are not. His games played were down a bit, but Baines did play from '94-'01.
On Oliver, I don't think we should take players from an era when they were not asked to walk and then judge them on not walking. The dude had a 121 career OPS+ and a a 120 wRC+, and guess what? Those numbers include walks, and the fact that he was not a big home run hitter.
I am not really arguing Oliver for the hall of fame. In my opinion, he comes up short. (though he was a very good player) I am just saying we shouldn't put the imprtance we put on some things today, and then ding players from the past when those were not part of their expectations then. Oliver was asked to hit .300, and he did that.
I also find it funny that while many people want to forget the entire Selig era and want to leave people out that did them. (And many make arguments against people who never did, because they were big or something) that we should basically take the fact that Clark's power did not keep up with that era and use it against him. Even with everyone else on steroids, Clark had a 128 OPS+ after 1991. He hit .305/.393/.483 from age 28-36.
One thing we (or at least I) tend to forget about Oliver is that he had more games as a CF than any other position. His numbers for a corner outfielder/1B/DH certainly do not scream HOF, but as a CF? That's a lot closer
I've really come to believe that we should stop penalizing guys who play a little bit "too long" and hurt their career rate stats (and in some cases, their WAR).
If someone looks like a Hall of Famer through 10 or 12 or 15 or however many seasons, and then they're functionally done as a contributor but some team for whatever reason decides they want to pay them to keep playing, does that really make them less of a Hall of Famer because it dropped their career average from .303 to .294?
Here’s a fun mental exercise: Let’s imagine for a second that everyone you mentioned above gets into the Hall of Fame. What would that do to our sense of who exactly is a Hall of Famer and who isn’t? I can imagine it would change that sense utterly.
Vada Pinson was my favorite player when I first started following baseball. He had a spectacular start to his career at a very young age. I never understood why his career numbers became so average after the age of 30.
Zero question that Bernie was a HoF player. None. He was the difference in a lot of playoff games for that dynasty. In this world of counting stats it makes no sense Hernandez isn’t in the HoF. Posey definitely in ahead of Molina, and that’s not a slight to Molina. Posey not only was an offensive force, but — Joe will appreciate this — worked magic behind the plate ‘framing strikes’ for his battery. And if Molina had to catch Lincecum, well what would his defensive stats look like? Fun read.
Parker and Hernandez - cocaine is a woeful drug
If a lefthanded athlete of Keith Hernandez' caliber had had a good enough arm to play shortstop, he'd have been a pitcher.
I associate Staub with the Tigers, even though he was there only a few years, because that's when I started paying attention and he was my favorite player on those late-'70s teams.
Staub's Transactions section in his Baseball Reference page is wild. Staub stated out with the Colt .45s/Astros in 1963, where he was a teammate of Joe Morgan playing outdoors before the Astrodome was built. Before the 1969 season he was traded to the Expos for Jesus Alou and Donn Clendenon, who refused to report and was replaced by Jack Billingham, who later was a frontline pitcher on those late-'70s Tigers teams with Staub after picking up a couple of rings with the Big Red Machine. At the beginning of the 1972 season Staub was traded to the Mets for Tim Foli, Ken Singleton and Mike Jorgenson (who later was a teammate of Staub with the Mets in the early 1980s), then after the 1975 season he was traded from the Mets to the Tigers for Mickey Lolich. The Tigers traded him back to Montreal during the 1979 season for basically nothing, which kinda sounds like it was a favor to him. After that season, Montreal traded him to Texas where he spent the 1980 season, then signed with the Mets again before retiring after the 1985 season as a teammate of Doc Gooden.
Staub was named to 6 All-Star teams and got MVP votes 7 different years, his best finish being 5th in 1978 with Detroit. That was the year Jim Rice beat Ron Guidry's 25-3 record. Larry Hisle of Milwaukee (he had been traded from Minnesota right before the season started) was third and Amos Otis of KC was fourth. Reggie Jackson was 17th. 36 players got MVP votes that year, with Rick Burleson and Frank Tanana picking up 1 vote each. Only three teams weren't represented at all in that vote -- Toronto, Oakland and the White Sox. Leon Roberts of Seattle somehow got 3 down-ballot votes. Ken Singleton got 2 votes as a member of the Orioles.
(Also, that year Dave Parker won the NL MVP with 21 of 24 1st place votes. One other player got the other 3 -- Larry Bowa. What!?)
Kenny Lofton was my favorite player growing up, so my opinions are loaded with a big heap of nostalgia bias. BUT I cannot understand how the BWAA consolidated so successfully around Tim Raines without any of that energy transferring to Kenny Lofton. Their key strengths are so similar and their career numbers - both traditional and WAR - are extremely close even though Kenny played 3 or 4 fewer seasons. Both had their signature best seasons with one franchise, with Kenny having the advantage of being on a regular playoff team.
So I get why Lofton got lost in the shuffle that first season on the ballot. What I don't get is why baseball writers haven't pushed his name more, especially given the attention they paid Tim Raines.
Joe, unintentionally I think, hit on a point that drives me nuts when discussing the PED era. Yes, the offensive environment was bananas, which makes guys like Delgado, Lofton, and Berkman seem less impressive, but that just means they WERE less impressive than their peers and in order to argue for their inclusion, you'd have to say that WAY more people were using PEDs and those three definitively weren't or that there was way more causing the offensive spike than steroids and where they fit is where they fit on a talent level.
You can't handwave them away as second tier hitters compared to their peers because of steroids but then also say "Oh, it was just Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and A-Rod driving those numbers"
Because WAR is a counting stat, perhaps it should carry more weight that Posey has more WAR than he does in 65.5% of his PAS. Or Thurman Munson, career cut short by tragedy, who has more in 69% of the PAS. (I don't want to hear about Bill James not liking Munson anymore, because his antipathy for Munson is pathological, and has resulted in some of his most shameful statements. He clearly is not objective. At all.)
Sure WIn Shares, which is counted by seasons, probably has Molina ahead. You can be quite a bit worse and get more in 19 seasons than 11 or 12.
I have been watching baseball for 50 years, and in that time, Yadier Molina is the most overrated player, and it is not particularly close. But Fangraphs hinky framing stat (Fangraphs has Molina as the best defensive player of all time. Not catcher. Any Player. Better than Ozzie Smith, for the Cardinal fans. Better by a lot than every player you have ever thought might be the greatest, for everyone else.) and the PR (and backlash against any media member who infers that he might not be a first ballot guy) of the BFIB have almost ensured his election.
He was a very good player for a very long time. Cardinal hall of famer for sure. But he was just that. Not a great one. Closer to Salvador Perez than he is to Munson or Posey. (I would put him above Salvy - but he is still more in that league than he is to those other guys) Jason Kendall with better press clippings.
Here's an interesting fact about Joe Mauer: In 2009 he led the league in all three slash lines--batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. How rare is that? Babe Ruth did it once. Among the players to never do that are Aaron, Mays, Pujols, Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn. Yastremski, Cabrera, and George Brett did it once each. No catcher other than Mauer has ever done it. As far as I can tell, since 1920, the only other catcher to ever lead the league in ANY of the three slash categories was Buster Posey, who led in batting average once. In addition to that triple crown year, Mauer led in average twice and on-base percentage once.
In the two most important defensive positions of catcher and shortstop, these great players never led their league in ANY of the three slash categories, let alone all three in one year--Alex Rodriguez, Jeter, Mike Piazza, Bench, Berra, Cal Ripken Jr., and Ernie Banks.
As far as I can tell, since 1920 the only players to lead their league in all three slash lines in the same year more than once are Stan Musial (twice) and Ted Williams (6 times).
Al Oliver really was a victim of labor issues. In 1972 the season started late and he lost 20 games and 1981 was interrupted for 54 games. That’s maybe 90 hits. With a contract for 1986 he probably ends that year around 2900.
1987 was an absurd offensive year, so…
On the day Thurman Munson died, my foster father came out on the porch and told me. I thought it was a cruel joke because he disliked the Yankees (Red sox fan, more or less- he was one of the many who left the dodgers when they left Brooklyn) I cried when I learned it was true.
This is completely unrelated to this article, but I just wanted to put this question here to see if Joe or anyone else knows the answer:
I just watched Die Hard the other night and then was re-reading the Honus Wagner entry from the baseball 100 today (as you do), and wondered:
Was Hans Gruber’s name in Die Hard a nod to the famous letter written by Honus (Hans) Wagner to Pittsburgh Sportswriter John Gruber?
I did a quick google search and couldn’t find anything referencing that but seems possible….
So funny that you would question Keith Hernandez's aptitude as a third hitter. He took great pride in that, and is insufferable on the air advocating that contact hitters like himself should hit 3rd. If you read his ghost-written autobiographies, even during his career, this was a very important concept in his mind, that he was a third hitter. Managers would have removed him from the third spot at their peril.
When it comes to Al Oliver, I can't get past only one season of 50 walks or more, and only three of 40 walks or more. Only two of 20 homers or more, too.
What I think has hurt Clark is that he was thought of as a big disappointment after 1991. His numbers stack up, but he didn't continue the trajectory commonly assumed for him. He was in the top 5 in MVP four times from '87-'91, then only got votes in one other year. He was 2nd in his league in OPS in '88, '89, and '91, 8th in '92, then never again in the top 10. He hit 20 home runs only twice in a season after '91. From '87-'91 cumulatively, he was 5th in the NL in home runs. A lot of players had their home run totals go up, and he had the normal drop-off with age, not buoyed by the steroid era. So, when I thought of Clark, I thought of the early Clark, and not "Hall of Famer." This irrationally plagued the memory of Tim Raines a bit, too, although I guess Raines was more remarkable at his peak than Clark.
Harold Baines probably looks better in that comparison with Staub than he should because Staub's stats are neutralized but Baines's are not. His games played were down a bit, but Baines did play from '94-'01.
On Oliver, I don't think we should take players from an era when they were not asked to walk and then judge them on not walking. The dude had a 121 career OPS+ and a a 120 wRC+, and guess what? Those numbers include walks, and the fact that he was not a big home run hitter.
I am not really arguing Oliver for the hall of fame. In my opinion, he comes up short. (though he was a very good player) I am just saying we shouldn't put the imprtance we put on some things today, and then ding players from the past when those were not part of their expectations then. Oliver was asked to hit .300, and he did that.
I also find it funny that while many people want to forget the entire Selig era and want to leave people out that did them. (And many make arguments against people who never did, because they were big or something) that we should basically take the fact that Clark's power did not keep up with that era and use it against him. Even with everyone else on steroids, Clark had a 128 OPS+ after 1991. He hit .305/.393/.483 from age 28-36.
One thing we (or at least I) tend to forget about Oliver is that he had more games as a CF than any other position. His numbers for a corner outfielder/1B/DH certainly do not scream HOF, but as a CF? That's a lot closer
I've really come to believe that we should stop penalizing guys who play a little bit "too long" and hurt their career rate stats (and in some cases, their WAR).
If someone looks like a Hall of Famer through 10 or 12 or 15 or however many seasons, and then they're functionally done as a contributor but some team for whatever reason decides they want to pay them to keep playing, does that really make them less of a Hall of Famer because it dropped their career average from .303 to .294?
Here’s a fun mental exercise: Let’s imagine for a second that everyone you mentioned above gets into the Hall of Fame. What would that do to our sense of who exactly is a Hall of Famer and who isn’t? I can imagine it would change that sense utterly.
Did anyone mention there are two number 16s, so the numbering is off?