Hi everybody. So they’re about to announce this year’s Hall of Fame class. Fingers crossed we get a Hall of Famer this year! At 7 p.m. Eastern, I’ll come on this thread, write some Hall of Fame thoughts, answer any questions you might have, we’ll have some fun. See you at 7!
OK, I"m going to check out of here ... please check in tomorrow for the full rundown on JoeBlogs. And everybody get ready for the JoeBlogs Hall of Fame journey, which will be starting soon!
Oh boy! Lots and lots to talk about, which is great. I really did think we were going to have zero BBWAA Hall of Fame inductees this year, but as it turns out ... Scott Rolen made it! I'll have lots and lots to say tomorrow about Rolen's path from 10.2% his first year all the way to induction five years later.
Here are the results, with a quick comment:
Scott Rolen, 76.3% — elected by five votes
Todd Helton, 72.2% — missed by 11 votes
Billy Wagner, 68.1% — he has two more years to get to 75%
Andruw Jones, 58.1% — a nice jump from 44.1%, he has real momentum now
Gary Sheffield, 55% — up from 40.6%, but he has only one year left. Veteran's committee?
Carlos Beltran, 46.5% — Not a terrible debut considering the cheating scandal
Jeff Kent, 46.5% — A decent jump but this is his last year. Seems a like Veteran's Comm. choice
Alex Rodriguez, 35.7% — No movement for A-Rod, I can't see that changing for a while.
Manny Ramirez, 33.2% — The slightest uptick, wonder if people see and A-Rod as a package deal
Omar Vizquel, 19.5% — The fall of Omar continues; he was above 50% in 2020
Andy Pettitte, 17% — A small rise from 11% last year.
Bobby Abreu, 15.4% — Hey, he about doubled his vote total. I could see his case catching on
Jimmy Rollins, 12.9% — Not a lot of movement, but he's secure for next year's ballot.
Mark Buehrle, 10.8% — Doubled his vote total; I think people are nostalgic for him
i've said it before (ad nauseum) and i'll say it again- until Bonds and Clemens are in, the HoF is a joke! there are other suspected- even a few confirmed- PED users IN the Hall, and before steroids, most of the players, including some HoF icons, were gobbling amphetamines like they were candy- how is one OK and the other verboten?!?!?!? PS re Kent: although i'm a lifelong SF Giants fan, no way does Kent belong in the HoF
Jimmy Rollins is a WS winner. And a great leader. He deserves HOF. All should push for him. Perhaps also an endorsement from Rocky Balboa and Nick Foles.
I'm in favor of putting Buehrle in because I think people 50 years from now will look at his incredible streak of 200-inning seasons the way we look at Cy Young's 511 victories: unachievable. It wouldn't SHOCK me if we never see another 200 inning pitcher ever again, nevermind someone doing it season after season after season.
Also: his between the legs flip is the single awesomest play in baseball history, and I can't watch that highlight enough.
Alright, this seems about the safest place to make some comments, which is to say: a smart group of people following a terrific, thoughtful, nuanced writer. (I mean it, Joe!)....
The Hall of Fame seems totally broken.
In what universe was Scott Rolen better than Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez, or Carlos Beltran? To say nothing of the obvious greatest players/pitchers of their era - Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod...?
What even IS the Hall of Fame? That seems the fundamental problem. Is it for the greatest players who ever played the game? The 'immortals'? Or is it a gold watch hall, where we reward really solid players and great citizens who played the game at a high level for a really long time? The name, the plaques, the induction of the first five, the history of the Hall... all suggest it's the former. But the recent voting suggests it's the latter.
We can disagree on what it should be - that's one discussion... but we almost never have it. And so we are left to argue over WAR and All Star selections, as if that settles anything.
But the bottom line is, to me, that it doesn't make sense to have a Hall of Fame that honors people who were NEVER the best players at their position the game and leave out players who blazed across the sky if only for a slightly shorter period of time.
Obviously we can't go around culling people from the damn thing.... but if we could maybe swap out Baines and Simmons and Rolen for Mattingly and Keith and Murphy, that'd be a start.
And sure, fine, morals and cheating should matter... on the first ballot. Don't induct an A-hole on the first ballot. My hope is that's why a bunch of folks left Beltran off this year. (Not counting on it, of course.) But the idea that you can draw a line around A-Rod and Bonds and Clemens, as if the whole apparatus of what we now call MLB wasn't set up to support those who did steroids... and Selig is in the Hall?!?! It's madness.
Matt Cain should have gotten a vote. I'm not arguing he should actually be in the Hall, but I mean someone should have given him some love - he was awesome.
Obviously the circumstances surrounding the fall are horrific, but if we can put that aside for a moment — I’m glad Omar Vizquel no longer has a shot. I don’t see how he was even a borderline guy.
Yes, he almost got 3000 hits… because he played for a million years. He was not a good, or even average, hitter by any measure.
His whole case seems to rest on defense and playing a long time, except he was never that great on defense. A good defensive shortstop, sure, but there are tons of shortstops who were as good defensively as he was. He was not close to being on Ozzie Smith’s level. He had several contemporaries who were as good or better defensively; they just didn’t play as long. Obviously longevity matters to an extent, but being average overall for a really long time isn’t special.
I love seeing the momentum for Billy Wagner. I'd take the 10 best Billy Wagner years over those of any other comparable closer (think the 1 inning closer era guys) except Mo. He has essentially the same bWAR as Trevor Hoffman (Hell's Bells beats Enter Sandman by 0.3 bWAR; did you know Wagner was using "Enter Sandman" before Rivera used it? I didn't know that until I did a little reading just now).
Joe, it seems starting pitchers are getting shafted again. Even assuming Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke and maybe CC, the number of SP will still be low. In your opinion, what should the standards be going forward?
I think the shift in starting pitching is still happening, even now. Starters are going fewer and fewer innings, and it doesn't feel to me like that's a trend that is likely to turn around anytime soon unless there's a rule change (such as the number of pitchers a team is allowed to carry).
With that in mind, even the guys you mention feel like they pitched in a completely different era. I mean you look at all the pitchers born after 1992 -- who is going to the Hall of Fame? Aaron Nola? Luis Castillo? Max Fried? Sandy Alcantara? Who can even tell? The Hall of Fame starter is definitely a moving target.
Joe, I’m curious the extent to which you think postseason performance should factor into a player’s HOF candidacy. It can be difficult to quantify without a catch-all stat like WAR to add to their regular-season totals. Would be a critical factor for a player like Pettitte, whose regular-season stats are comparable to Buehrle but who pitched about a season and a half’s worth of innings in the postseason at a high level.
I think it should play MORE of a role, to be honest. i think, in the past, it has played a huge role in a few cases, like Sandy Koufax. But often postseason performance simply gets overlooked. Look at Curt Schilling, before he went nuclear. As good a postseason resume as you could have; it just didn't move people at all. It's weird.
He left Philadelphia amid a feud with Larry Bowa and lamenting the ownership didn't want to put a winner on the field. It rubbed a lot of fans the wrong way. A lot of Phillie fans still dislike him over the whole episode. I don't. Rolen was the first great Phillie I got to pull for night in, night out.
Anyway, I think Rolen goes in as a Cardinal. Won a Series with St.L.
you've commented on the Veterans committees before and put together a better era ballot, but how would you have the committee ballot organised?
I think I'd like to see them do it by position, so then they would see Grich, Lou, Randolph, Kent, Kinsler together and sort out some snubs at the position.
Joe, in your “instant reaction” thoughts upon McGriff's election, one of the points you made was that you were now convinced that Mattingly would eventually get in. Although it seems like there is more momentum building for this beyond NY (Brian Kenney had segments in favor of Mattingly and Murphy both during the committee process and this afternoon), I’m still in “need to see it to believe it mode."
Why are so you definitive about that thought process now?
Well, I don't know that I'm definitive but I think Mattingly is going in because he received a bunch of votes this year and he's so respected and beloved throughout the game. I'm less certain on Murphy, but I think Mattingly is elected.
Question from Harley: With Rolen this year and Beltre next year, will third base still be the most underrepresented position?
I do think yes ... I still don't think any other position has the depth of non-Hall of Famers that matches Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer, Sal Bando, Buddy Bell, Darrell Evans and even Robin Ventura and Stan Hack. But I also think I'd put second basemen Lou Whitaker Bobby Grich in ahead of any of them.
I have a bad feeling David Wright is going to be one-and-done next year and I’m not sure he should be? Admittedly I’m a huge David Wright fanboy but he has at least as good of a case as quite a few players who received serious consideration this year, but it feels like there are a lot of bubble-types going on the ballot next year and between his career ending early and being a third baseman, it feels like he’s going to slip through the cracks.
That would make me sad. The guy actually kind of parallels Mattingly, including the career-ending back issues. He certainly deserves to stay on the ballot for some years, but I can't see him ever getting voted in, even if Steve Cohen started slinging some cash around.
David Wright was a truly fantastic player ... but yeah, I think it's pretty likely he will fall off the ballot next year. I'll talk about this in my wrap-up tomorrow, but next year will be a surprisingly loaded ballot. We have 15 coming back from this year's ballot plus the additions of Adrian Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley. Plus Bartolo Colon who, I bet, will get a few votes.
I think so too. But he's no BBWAA lock. There are some guys coming on the ballot the next couple of years who will take up a LOT of oxygen -- Beltré, Ichiro, Sabathia. There have been others in the past who got pretty close and then sort of faltered because of the way the ballot played out.
I cannot come to grips with Billy Wagner in the HoF. Was he really any better than Sparky Lyle or Al Hrbosky? Ellsbury deserved a vote. A v short career but the peak was amazing
Wagner was absolutely better than Lyle & the Mad Hungarian. And I never miss an opportunity to point out he's naturally right handed. He did all of that using the opposite hand from what he uses to hold a fork or look at his phone. I don't know if that moves the Hall of Fame case, but it is undoubtedly cool.
Todd Helton/Billy Wagner did well. I think they both get in next year, joining Adrian Beltre to make it a party. MAYBE Wagner falls a touch short but I doubt it
Andruw Jones also had a great night. I think he gets in via the BBWAA in 2-3 years
Gary Sheffield had a good night. Not enough to get in via the BBWAA but I think he’ll get a good look on the VC.
Carlos Beltran had a bad night but not an awful one. He’s ahead of Bagwell but behind Piazza. He probably gets in but this could be a slog. He benefits from weak ballots the next several years
Jeff Kent had a mediocre night. He didn’t get 50% which hurts but he probably gets in via a VC anyway
A-Rod and Manny had mediocre nights. Neither gained enough to make a difference, and Manny is running out of time
Vizquel had an awful night. I’m surprised he’s hanging onto the support he has frankly
Pettitte had a middling night. He needs to breakout but he isn’t getting enough support. I don’t know if Sabathia hitting the ballot helps or hurts him, Buehrle also had a middling night too but he does have more time to break out
Abreu & Rollins had OK nights. They didn’t break out but they got some more support and if they can hold onto it they’re set up for 2026 when nobody is coming onto the ballot and they can make a move
Wow, that '26 ballot is just... tumbleweeds. Hamels will get some votes, but I don't think he'll ever get in. I bet nobody else on the ballot ever tops 25%. I think that's when the voters will catch up.
I count 4 guys from this ballot who could get in by then, plus 6 strong candidates coming in '24 and '25. FWIW, '27 looks like a weak class as well, with only Posey a viable candidate, and I don't think he's a first ballot guy. I think anybody who's going in will get in by the '27 ballot, and after that you'll have zombie candidacies, guys floating in the 30-40% range but not much enthusiasm.
Yep. Candidates who have the time need to hope they can make up serious ground in '26 & '27. I am skeptical Abreu/Rollins/A-Rod/Pettitte/Buehrle can do it, but that's their opening.
Oh wait, I think I forgot to count Wagner as a holdover who'll eventually get in. So that's 11 players, by my estimation, likely to be voted in over the next 4 ballots.
Utley does well on JAWS (albeit behind Beltré and Mauer), but falls short on both of Bill James' monitor systems. Not saying that means he won't get in, but I bet he'll take a few years. Only 1885 hits, a lot of voters won't look past that.
In '25, you've got Ichiro and CC as slam dunks, but I don't see anybody else who's a serious contender. So the current guys and next year's batch have some room.
He also does well on WAR 7 and WAA and is a standout defensively. I understand how his career numbers aren't inner circle, but his peak is great.
I'm not necessarily saying he gets in next year, but I bet Joe votes for him and eventually he breaks through. Moreso, I'm happy not to have to see Kent on the ballot anymore.
And Allen is of course the most egregious snub going (PED guys excluded).
I haven't compared them carefully, but I have Nettles and Randolph about even. But yeah, I think you're probably right: even if you quibble one way or the other, there's fewer 3Bs in, and more deserving 3B out.
I think this, slowly, changes. I suspect Dick Allen gets in next time he's eligible (far too late), but I still have a few more. I am quite curious if Whitaker can get some traction. Always hard to tell on VC ballots
Best way to see it by positions is to look at the JAWS leaderboards - Hall of Famers are marked. It's a little awkward at the bottom though, because you have to scroll past an awful lot of people to get to Freddie Lindstrom or Chick Hafey or Harold Baines...
OK, from the Hall site, we've got 19 catchers, and would have 18 3B after Beltre gets in. Although if Mauer gets in, he'd add another C. And there are 20 2B, so I think you'd be getting to the point where you can't definitively say 3B is underrepresented.
Yes. Why would he want to go in as a Phillie? After he left (when he asked to be traded) he was loudly booed whenever he played in Philadelphia. His fouls and homers were almost always thrown back onto the field. Are you the real Dave Fetterman? Didn't you boo when he came back to town? (I would have voted for you even if I thought you cheered for him, except I don't live there anymore.)
The more important question is what does the Hall of Fame think? I suspect the Hall will try to put him in as a Cardinal. He won a ring there, had some great years, and had more visibility. I think it's a tossup on whether he was a better PLAYER at either stop (haven't delved into it), but he certainly was more NOTICED as a Cardinal.
I suspect he chooses to go with the Cardinal hat, but I could see him choosing no logo.
Not at all. I'm a Cardinals fan so you know what I'd like to see, but slightly more time and WAR with the Phillies. Only thing working against them is that he had 3 post-seasons, 2 NL pennants, and 1 WS with St. Louis, and no postseasons with Philly. I'm guessing he's a blank-cap guy, actually.
I'd love for him to go in as a Cardinal, but I don't think he will. His time here ended due to a feud with Tony, so he may not have the best recollections.
If Joe doesn't discount players for PEDs which is fine, then why aren't ARod #1, Manny #2 and Sheffield #3? Why vote for them then put them at the bottom of the list?
The difference is that ARod and Manny used while MLB actually made it against the rules, and tested for it - and each were busted and suspended for using.
Mike, my point is either what you say is true and ARod, Manny and Sheffield should be disqualified or they should not. If they are not disqualified for their steroid use, then they are the best players eligible and should be on the top, not the bottom, of Joe's ballot. Is is partially punishing them? That makes no sense to me.
I really hope he's getting the Alomar treatment. It's not going to take 5+ years for him to get in, and it would be dumb for it to take more than 2. Yes, what he did was bad, and I get that some voters will never forgive him. But I have trouble believing it's 30% who'll never vote for him, at which point, just get over it and get him in there.
Would be fun to have another big class. Say, Helton, Wagner, Beltré, Beltrán?
That you could name them and still leave out five players with 2000+ hits, three with 300+ homers - two of whom overlap - says something about the quality.
I think he debuts somewhere in the 50's/low 60's (Mauer). Three batting titles won as a catcher, measures up really well. Personally a 1st Ballot for me, but he's not a slam dunk like Beltre.
Mauer has the potential "one-franchise icon" boost going for him as well. Joe got into how that may or may not affect things a little while back, particularly with regard to Sheffield's and Ortiz's cases (Ortiz obviously played for the Twins but is considered a Red Sox legend above all else).
I just revisited his stats, forgot how good he was. As you mentioned, 3 batting titles for a catcher is rare, so are the OBP titles he has. And an MVP.
Catcher’s are tricky. JAWS, if I’m reading this right, has him 7th overall for catchers but his black ink falls short elsewhere. I think he gets in eventually.
He does beat the JAWS standard in all three categories (career, peak, & JAWS), but yeah, his career being impacted by injury/concussions dings him. He's got a lot of those superlatives though, plus his whole career on one team.
I think next year's class being Beltre, Helton, & Wagner is really good, though.
Joe - is there any hope for Gary Sheffield? He seems really unique, and likely to fall just short next year barring a big gain this year & next - and his PED case, while unique, is still a PED case. What will the Eras Committee make of him if/when he gets on there?
What I've read is that he's a shoe-in for a Vets Committee. I agree he didn't move enough this year to make it next year*. Which is a shame; if they're going to get in, just vote them in!
*15% is a big move, but even if he does it again, he'd fall short.
I think he is LESS likely to get through any of the current incarnations of the "Veterans Committee" than he is with the writers over the next 2 years, at least unless/until they inevitably change the process again. With only three votes per 16 committee members, you just about have to have collusion amongst the VC voters for ANYONE to get to 75%. And given the hard opposition to "steroid users" amongst a large contingent ot the current HOFers, you can bet that a BALCO connected guy is not going to be the beneficiary of such a process. I hope the writers do the right thing and elect Sheffield in a couple of years: with David Ortiz and Sheffield in the Hall, how could you continue to justify excluding Bonds and Clemens?
It all depends on who is making the ballots. If its Sheffield, Belle, Carter, Murphy, Will Clark, Schilling, Lofton & Olerud I think he stands a good chance
OK, I"m going to check out of here ... please check in tomorrow for the full rundown on JoeBlogs. And everybody get ready for the JoeBlogs Hall of Fame journey, which will be starting soon!
Yay Scott Rolen!
Oh boy! Lots and lots to talk about, which is great. I really did think we were going to have zero BBWAA Hall of Fame inductees this year, but as it turns out ... Scott Rolen made it! I'll have lots and lots to say tomorrow about Rolen's path from 10.2% his first year all the way to induction five years later.
Here are the results, with a quick comment:
Scott Rolen, 76.3% — elected by five votes
Todd Helton, 72.2% — missed by 11 votes
Billy Wagner, 68.1% — he has two more years to get to 75%
Andruw Jones, 58.1% — a nice jump from 44.1%, he has real momentum now
Gary Sheffield, 55% — up from 40.6%, but he has only one year left. Veteran's committee?
Carlos Beltran, 46.5% — Not a terrible debut considering the cheating scandal
Jeff Kent, 46.5% — A decent jump but this is his last year. Seems a like Veteran's Comm. choice
Alex Rodriguez, 35.7% — No movement for A-Rod, I can't see that changing for a while.
Manny Ramirez, 33.2% — The slightest uptick, wonder if people see and A-Rod as a package deal
Omar Vizquel, 19.5% — The fall of Omar continues; he was above 50% in 2020
Andy Pettitte, 17% — A small rise from 11% last year.
Bobby Abreu, 15.4% — Hey, he about doubled his vote total. I could see his case catching on
Jimmy Rollins, 12.9% — Not a lot of movement, but he's secure for next year's ballot.
Mark Buehrle, 10.8% — Doubled his vote total; I think people are nostalgic for him
i've said it before (ad nauseum) and i'll say it again- until Bonds and Clemens are in, the HoF is a joke! there are other suspected- even a few confirmed- PED users IN the Hall, and before steroids, most of the players, including some HoF icons, were gobbling amphetamines like they were candy- how is one OK and the other verboten?!?!?!? PS re Kent: although i'm a lifelong SF Giants fan, no way does Kent belong in the HoF
This debate is old and stale. I have no problem with them getting in. Posthumously.
We need lots more Jimmy Rollins love.
Exactly. From Oakland to Philadelphia all should embrace Jimmy Rollins.
As Need a J-Roll push from prominent writer with rabid followers - where can we find such a person?!?!?
Jimmy Rollins is a WS winner. And a great leader. He deserves HOF. All should push for him. Perhaps also an endorsement from Rocky Balboa and Nick Foles.
Francisco Rodriguez, 10.8% — A higher percentage than Billy Wagner got his first or second year
Torii Hunter, 6.9% — Hey, he just keeps on BARELY staying on the ballot.
Bronson Arroyo, 1 vote — A music fan, no doubt
R.A. Dickey, 1 vote — One of the coolest stories in recent baseball history
John Lackey, 1 vote — Hey, the guy was a bulldog
Mike Napoli, 1 vote — Not exactly sure where this vote came from but he could swat
Huston Street, 1 vote — Fine reliever, I would not have guessed he'd be among the 1-votes
Matt Cain, 0 voters — I would have guessed that Cain WOULD have been a 1-vote guy
Jacoby Ellsbury, 0 votes — Should have gotten a vote; in his short prime he was truly elite
Andre Ethier, 0 votes — They'll always love him in Los Angeles
J.J. Hardy, 0 votes — Just as solid as they come, defensive star, hit some home runs
Jhonny Peralta, 0 votes — Quiet, modest, played everywhere, hit balls into gaps
Jered Weaver, 0 votes — Pitched at a Hall of Fame level for three or four years, for sure
Jayson Werth, 0 votes — I have a Jason Werth garden gnome, for some reason. That's something.
In retrospect was Joe Nathan poorly treated?
TR Sullivan has confirmed that he was the one vote for RA Dickey and Huston Street. Nothing wrong with a pure homer vote.
One Cy Young after a career of obscurity using a pitch no one else will even attempt to throw deserves a vote.
RA you had one magical season and your great grandchildren will appreciate it!!! We sure did in MetsWorld!
That's my guy TR.
I'm in favor of putting Buehrle in because I think people 50 years from now will look at his incredible streak of 200-inning seasons the way we look at Cy Young's 511 victories: unachievable. It wouldn't SHOCK me if we never see another 200 inning pitcher ever again, nevermind someone doing it season after season after season.
Also: his between the legs flip is the single awesomest play in baseball history, and I can't watch that highlight enough.
Alright, this seems about the safest place to make some comments, which is to say: a smart group of people following a terrific, thoughtful, nuanced writer. (I mean it, Joe!)....
The Hall of Fame seems totally broken.
In what universe was Scott Rolen better than Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez, or Carlos Beltran? To say nothing of the obvious greatest players/pitchers of their era - Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod...?
What even IS the Hall of Fame? That seems the fundamental problem. Is it for the greatest players who ever played the game? The 'immortals'? Or is it a gold watch hall, where we reward really solid players and great citizens who played the game at a high level for a really long time? The name, the plaques, the induction of the first five, the history of the Hall... all suggest it's the former. But the recent voting suggests it's the latter.
We can disagree on what it should be - that's one discussion... but we almost never have it. And so we are left to argue over WAR and All Star selections, as if that settles anything.
But the bottom line is, to me, that it doesn't make sense to have a Hall of Fame that honors people who were NEVER the best players at their position the game and leave out players who blazed across the sky if only for a slightly shorter period of time.
Obviously we can't go around culling people from the damn thing.... but if we could maybe swap out Baines and Simmons and Rolen for Mattingly and Keith and Murphy, that'd be a start.
And sure, fine, morals and cheating should matter... on the first ballot. Don't induct an A-hole on the first ballot. My hope is that's why a bunch of folks left Beltran off this year. (Not counting on it, of course.) But the idea that you can draw a line around A-Rod and Bonds and Clemens, as if the whole apparatus of what we now call MLB wasn't set up to support those who did steroids... and Selig is in the Hall?!?! It's madness.
Matt Cain should have gotten a vote. I'm not arguing he should actually be in the Hall, but I mean someone should have given him some love - he was awesome.
Obviously the circumstances surrounding the fall are horrific, but if we can put that aside for a moment — I’m glad Omar Vizquel no longer has a shot. I don’t see how he was even a borderline guy.
Yes, he almost got 3000 hits… because he played for a million years. He was not a good, or even average, hitter by any measure.
His whole case seems to rest on defense and playing a long time, except he was never that great on defense. A good defensive shortstop, sure, but there are tons of shortstops who were as good defensively as he was. He was not close to being on Ozzie Smith’s level. He had several contemporaries who were as good or better defensively; they just didn’t play as long. Obviously longevity matters to an extent, but being average overall for a really long time isn’t special.
I love seeing the momentum for Billy Wagner. I'd take the 10 best Billy Wagner years over those of any other comparable closer (think the 1 inning closer era guys) except Mo. He has essentially the same bWAR as Trevor Hoffman (Hell's Bells beats Enter Sandman by 0.3 bWAR; did you know Wagner was using "Enter Sandman" before Rivera used it? I didn't know that until I did a little reading just now).
Joe, it seems starting pitchers are getting shafted again. Even assuming Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke and maybe CC, the number of SP will still be low. In your opinion, what should the standards be going forward?
I think the shift in starting pitching is still happening, even now. Starters are going fewer and fewer innings, and it doesn't feel to me like that's a trend that is likely to turn around anytime soon unless there's a rule change (such as the number of pitchers a team is allowed to carry).
With that in mind, even the guys you mention feel like they pitched in a completely different era. I mean you look at all the pitchers born after 1992 -- who is going to the Hall of Fame? Aaron Nola? Luis Castillo? Max Fried? Sandy Alcantara? Who can even tell? The Hall of Fame starter is definitely a moving target.
Joe, I’m curious the extent to which you think postseason performance should factor into a player’s HOF candidacy. It can be difficult to quantify without a catch-all stat like WAR to add to their regular-season totals. Would be a critical factor for a player like Pettitte, whose regular-season stats are comparable to Buehrle but who pitched about a season and a half’s worth of innings in the postseason at a high level.
I think it should play MORE of a role, to be honest. i think, in the past, it has played a huge role in a few cases, like Sandy Koufax. But often postseason performance simply gets overlooked. Look at Curt Schilling, before he went nuclear. As good a postseason resume as you could have; it just didn't move people at all. It's weird.
Happy for Rolen. Does his HOF plaque have a STL hat? Hope so.
He's in the STL hall of fame. I bet he'll go in with a Cardinals cap.
I hope so too, but I'm not optimistic. He left the team amid a feud with TLR, so not on the best of terms...
He left Philadelphia amid a feud with Larry Bowa and lamenting the ownership didn't want to put a winner on the field. It rubbed a lot of fans the wrong way. A lot of Phillie fans still dislike him over the whole episode. I don't. Rolen was the first great Phillie I got to pull for night in, night out.
Anyway, I think Rolen goes in as a Cardinal. Won a Series with St.L.
So he feuded with two of the biggest managerial
a-holes in modern history. Should get extra points for being right both times.
Hi Joe
you've commented on the Veterans committees before and put together a better era ballot, but how would you have the committee ballot organised?
I think I'd like to see them do it by position, so then they would see Grich, Lou, Randolph, Kent, Kinsler together and sort out some snubs at the position.
Well, I'm putting together the JoeBlogs Hall of Fame process as we speak and ... you're pretty close here.
Looking forward to it.
Thanks
Joe, in your “instant reaction” thoughts upon McGriff's election, one of the points you made was that you were now convinced that Mattingly would eventually get in. Although it seems like there is more momentum building for this beyond NY (Brian Kenney had segments in favor of Mattingly and Murphy both during the committee process and this afternoon), I’m still in “need to see it to believe it mode."
Why are so you definitive about that thought process now?
Well, I don't know that I'm definitive but I think Mattingly is going in because he received a bunch of votes this year and he's so respected and beloved throughout the game. I'm less certain on Murphy, but I think Mattingly is elected.
Question from Harley: With Rolen this year and Beltre next year, will third base still be the most underrepresented position?
I do think yes ... I still don't think any other position has the depth of non-Hall of Famers that matches Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer, Sal Bando, Buddy Bell, Darrell Evans and even Robin Ventura and Stan Hack. But I also think I'd put second basemen Lou Whitaker Bobby Grich in ahead of any of them.
I have a bad feeling David Wright is going to be one-and-done next year and I’m not sure he should be? Admittedly I’m a huge David Wright fanboy but he has at least as good of a case as quite a few players who received serious consideration this year, but it feels like there are a lot of bubble-types going on the ballot next year and between his career ending early and being a third baseman, it feels like he’s going to slip through the cracks.
That would make me sad. The guy actually kind of parallels Mattingly, including the career-ending back issues. He certainly deserves to stay on the ballot for some years, but I can't see him ever getting voted in, even if Steve Cohen started slinging some cash around.
David Wright was a truly fantastic player ... but yeah, I think it's pretty likely he will fall off the ballot next year. I'll talk about this in my wrap-up tomorrow, but next year will be a surprisingly loaded ballot. We have 15 coming back from this year's ballot plus the additions of Adrian Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley. Plus Bartolo Colon who, I bet, will get a few votes.
Andrew is getting in eventually
I think so too. But he's no BBWAA lock. There are some guys coming on the ballot the next couple of years who will take up a LOT of oxygen -- Beltré, Ichiro, Sabathia. There have been others in the past who got pretty close and then sort of faltered because of the way the ballot played out.
Do you think this happens relatively less now? The last two players I see declining due to stacked ballots are Jack Morris & Don Mattingly
Ichiro might be unanimous.
I cannot come to grips with Billy Wagner in the HoF. Was he really any better than Sparky Lyle or Al Hrbosky? Ellsbury deserved a vote. A v short career but the peak was amazing
Wagner was absolutely better than Lyle & the Mad Hungarian. And I never miss an opportunity to point out he's naturally right handed. He did all of that using the opposite hand from what he uses to hold a fork or look at his phone. I don't know if that moves the Hall of Fame case, but it is undoubtedly cool.
Called it! Check the comments from a couple months back--I just felt that Rolen would be elected!
I do wish Helton had made it--next year?
Hooray, R.A.Dickey got a vote!
Scott Rolen is the first (and probably only) player from the Baseball Dreams Come True skit from Saturday Night Live to make the Baseball Hall of Fame
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/baseball-dreams-come-true/2861317
It's the sketch comedy version of opening a deeply mediocre Topps wax pack from 1998. Only Mark Wohlers drops random slurs on you. Yeesh.
https://www.theringer.com/tv/2022/12/13/23506851/saturday-night-live-baseball-dreams-come-true-sketch-oral-history?curator=SportsREDEF
It's nice they elected someone.
Player by player thoughts:
Todd Helton/Billy Wagner did well. I think they both get in next year, joining Adrian Beltre to make it a party. MAYBE Wagner falls a touch short but I doubt it
Andruw Jones also had a great night. I think he gets in via the BBWAA in 2-3 years
Gary Sheffield had a good night. Not enough to get in via the BBWAA but I think he’ll get a good look on the VC.
Carlos Beltran had a bad night but not an awful one. He’s ahead of Bagwell but behind Piazza. He probably gets in but this could be a slog. He benefits from weak ballots the next several years
Jeff Kent had a mediocre night. He didn’t get 50% which hurts but he probably gets in via a VC anyway
A-Rod and Manny had mediocre nights. Neither gained enough to make a difference, and Manny is running out of time
Vizquel had an awful night. I’m surprised he’s hanging onto the support he has frankly
Pettitte had a middling night. He needs to breakout but he isn’t getting enough support. I don’t know if Sabathia hitting the ballot helps or hurts him, Buehrle also had a middling night too but he does have more time to break out
Abreu & Rollins had OK nights. They didn’t break out but they got some more support and if they can hold onto it they’re set up for 2026 when nobody is coming onto the ballot and they can make a move
K-Rod and Hunter had great nights: they survived
Wow, that '26 ballot is just... tumbleweeds. Hamels will get some votes, but I don't think he'll ever get in. I bet nobody else on the ballot ever tops 25%. I think that's when the voters will catch up.
I count 4 guys from this ballot who could get in by then, plus 6 strong candidates coming in '24 and '25. FWIW, '27 looks like a weak class as well, with only Posey a viable candidate, and I don't think he's a first ballot guy. I think anybody who's going in will get in by the '27 ballot, and after that you'll have zombie candidacies, guys floating in the 30-40% range but not much enthusiasm.
Yep. Candidates who have the time need to hope they can make up serious ground in '26 & '27. I am skeptical Abreu/Rollins/A-Rod/Pettitte/Buehrle can do it, but that's their opening.
Oh wait, I think I forgot to count Wagner as a holdover who'll eventually get in. So that's 11 players, by my estimation, likely to be voted in over the next 4 ballots.
Wagner, Helton and Beltre in 2024!
So Happy for Rolen, thought Helton would have made the leap.
Next year hope to see him next year.
Curious what Joe will do next year?
Beltre for sure
Utley the next best newcomer and I believe Joe will vote for him
Mauer likely
I assume ARod, Manny and Shef, Helton and Beltran are holdovers
Joe, Who gets the down the ballot votes?
Abreu may still be the best of the rest
Rollins again for a nice Utley/Rollins duo
Do you do Wagner again? I think Wright might deserve the 9 or 10 spot and there would be a certain joy in giving Colon a down the ballot vote.
Utley does well on JAWS (albeit behind Beltré and Mauer), but falls short on both of Bill James' monitor systems. Not saying that means he won't get in, but I bet he'll take a few years. Only 1885 hits, a lot of voters won't look past that.
In '25, you've got Ichiro and CC as slam dunks, but I don't see anybody else who's a serious contender. So the current guys and next year's batch have some room.
He also does well on WAR 7 and WAA and is a standout defensively. I understand how his career numbers aren't inner circle, but his peak is great.
I'm not necessarily saying he gets in next year, but I bet Joe votes for him and eventually he breaks through. Moreso, I'm happy not to have to see Kent on the ballot anymore.
Completely agree with your second para.
Hey Joe - where do you stand on Mauer? (Thread developing about him down below already) Not to take attention away from Scott Rolen's big day.
I'm a big Mauer guy. But we have a full year to talk about why.
With Rolen this year and Beltre next year, will third base still be the most underrepresented position?
Yes as I think they still have the most ignored candidates
I dunno, between Whitaker, Grich, and Randolph, 2B has a strong case.
I have: Whitaker & Grich as second basemen who were overlooked
I have: Sal Brando, Buddy Bell, Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer, and Dick Allen for third basemen.
I mean it’s not a huge difference
And Allen is of course the most egregious snub going (PED guys excluded).
I haven't compared them carefully, but I have Nettles and Randolph about even. But yeah, I think you're probably right: even if you quibble one way or the other, there's fewer 3Bs in, and more deserving 3B out.
I think this, slowly, changes. I suspect Dick Allen gets in next time he's eligible (far too late), but I still have a few more. I am quite curious if Whitaker can get some traction. Always hard to tell on VC ballots
Pretty sure yes, but not as egregiously.
B-R doesn't list by position? That's weird. Must be in a different part of the site, I can't imagine it's not there at all.
Best way to see it by positions is to look at the JAWS leaderboards - Hall of Famers are marked. It's a little awkward at the bottom though, because you have to scroll past an awful lot of people to get to Freddie Lindstrom or Chick Hafey or Harold Baines...
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml
OK, from the Hall site, we've got 19 catchers, and would have 18 3B after Beltre gets in. Although if Mauer gets in, he'd add another C. And there are 20 2B, so I think you'd be getting to the point where you can't definitively say 3B is underrepresented.
Plus ARod eventually...
I think he gets in as an SS: that's where most of his value came, and everybody knows he moved off the position for non-ability reasons.
Rolen very deserving - just wish he’d stayed with Phillies!
Exactly. If Paul C had been GM Rolens would be in the HOF as a lifetime Phillie.
Tip of the cap to Rolen! Wish a few more could have joined him
Thanks to whoever cast a vote for Bronson Arroyo - as a Reds fan, loved him as a player. Not a HoFer, but a great dude, very good pitcher.
Is it crazy for me to hope he goes in as a Phillie?
Yes. Why would he want to go in as a Phillie? After he left (when he asked to be traded) he was loudly booed whenever he played in Philadelphia. His fouls and homers were almost always thrown back onto the field. Are you the real Dave Fetterman? Didn't you boo when he came back to town? (I would have voted for you even if I thought you cheered for him, except I don't live there anymore.)
(I am not John Fetterman, nor am I related to him.) I hated to see Rolen leave, and rooted for him for the rest of just career.
The more important question is what does the Hall of Fame think? I suspect the Hall will try to put him in as a Cardinal. He won a ring there, had some great years, and had more visibility. I think it's a tossup on whether he was a better PLAYER at either stop (haven't delved into it), but he certainly was more NOTICED as a Cardinal.
I suspect he chooses to go with the Cardinal hat, but I could see him choosing no logo.
The reason would be: why burn bridges?
Great interview on MLB with Rolen - very complimentary of Phillies and especially John Vukovich
Not at all. I'm a Cardinals fan so you know what I'd like to see, but slightly more time and WAR with the Phillies. Only thing working against them is that he had 3 post-seasons, 2 NL pennants, and 1 WS with St. Louis, and no postseasons with Philly. I'm guessing he's a blank-cap guy, actually.
I'd love for him to go in as a Cardinal, but I don't think he will. His time here ended due to a feud with Tony, so he may not have the best recollections.
It's not up to him. I think they take the player's wishes into consideration, but ultimately the Hall decides.
No
Good for Rolen, wish Helton would have had a few more votes
Good for Rolen. Hope Helton and Wagner make it next year!
If Joe doesn't discount players for PEDs which is fine, then why aren't ARod #1, Manny #2 and Sheffield #3? Why vote for them then put them at the bottom of the list?
The difference is that ARod and Manny used while MLB actually made it against the rules, and tested for it - and each were busted and suspended for using.
Mike, my point is either what you say is true and ARod, Manny and Sheffield should be disqualified or they should not. If they are not disqualified for their steroid use, then they are the best players eligible and should be on the top, not the bottom, of Joe's ballot. Is is partially punishing them? That makes no sense to me.
He still factors in PED use (hence why Sosa and Palmeiro were ‘no’s’ for so long
Scott Rolen! Been on his wagon since he debuted!
Rolen: 76.3%
Helton: 72.2%
Wagner: 68.1%
Jones: 58.1%
Sheffield: 55%
Beltran/Kent: 46.5%
Rolen made it by 5 votes!!
That's a great start for Beltran!
I really hope he's getting the Alomar treatment. It's not going to take 5+ years for him to get in, and it would be dumb for it to take more than 2. Yes, what he did was bad, and I get that some voters will never forgive him. But I have trouble believing it's 30% who'll never vote for him, at which point, just get over it and get him in there.
Would be fun to have another big class. Say, Helton, Wagner, Beltré, Beltrán?
I’m assuming Helton didn’t miss by much.
Joe - I have vintage Luke Easter card - any interest as a gift to you. doug@weilsf.com
Woo! Deserves it. Actually a pretty good pipeline they have set up for the next few years (I’m not sold on Andruw but whatever).
Who’s new on the ballot next year?
Beltre, Mauer, Utley, David Wright, Colon
I’ve been waiting for Joe’s Mauer campaign for years.
That you could name them and still leave out five players with 2000+ hits, three with 300+ homers - two of whom overlap - says something about the quality.
Matt Holliday.
Beltre's a lock. Nobody else is 1st ballot.
Beltre for sure. Mauer I’m 50/50 on but probably at some point. I don’t think the rest get in.
I think he debuts somewhere in the 50's/low 60's (Mauer). Three batting titles won as a catcher, measures up really well. Personally a 1st Ballot for me, but he's not a slam dunk like Beltre.
Mauer has the potential "one-franchise icon" boost going for him as well. Joe got into how that may or may not affect things a little while back, particularly with regard to Sheffield's and Ortiz's cases (Ortiz obviously played for the Twins but is considered a Red Sox legend above all else).
I just revisited his stats, forgot how good he was. As you mentioned, 3 batting titles for a catcher is rare, so are the OBP titles he has. And an MVP.
Catcher’s are tricky. JAWS, if I’m reading this right, has him 7th overall for catchers but his black ink falls short elsewhere. I think he gets in eventually.
I did exactly the same. Even with time missed due to injury, his age 22-30 seasons were absurd and respectable beyond that.
He does beat the JAWS standard in all three categories (career, peak, & JAWS), but yeah, his career being impacted by injury/concussions dings him. He's got a lot of those superlatives though, plus his whole career on one team.
I think next year's class being Beltre, Helton, & Wagner is really good, though.
Happy for Rolen. Great player.
My cable went out yesterday. My wife picked up 2 new boxes, but I haven't installed them yet so this is where I'll get my HOF info 🤣
We do have a Hall of Famer this year no matter what happens: Fred McGriff.
Thanks, Joe!
Joe - is there any hope for Gary Sheffield? He seems really unique, and likely to fall just short next year barring a big gain this year & next - and his PED case, while unique, is still a PED case. What will the Eras Committee make of him if/when he gets on there?
What I've read is that he's a shoe-in for a Vets Committee. I agree he didn't move enough this year to make it next year*. Which is a shame; if they're going to get in, just vote them in!
*15% is a big move, but even if he does it again, he'd fall short.
I think he is LESS likely to get through any of the current incarnations of the "Veterans Committee" than he is with the writers over the next 2 years, at least unless/until they inevitably change the process again. With only three votes per 16 committee members, you just about have to have collusion amongst the VC voters for ANYONE to get to 75%. And given the hard opposition to "steroid users" amongst a large contingent ot the current HOFers, you can bet that a BALCO connected guy is not going to be the beneficiary of such a process. I hope the writers do the right thing and elect Sheffield in a couple of years: with David Ortiz and Sheffield in the Hall, how could you continue to justify excluding Bonds and Clemens?
It all depends on who is making the ballots. If its Sheffield, Belle, Carter, Murphy, Will Clark, Schilling, Lofton & Olerud I think he stands a good chance
Sheff only gets 1 more ballot.
Travis, I think so too.
I may be alone, but I have faith someone gets in