Hi, everybody. It has been almost two years since I started JoeBlogs, and let me just say it was the best career decision I’ve ever made. The second-best career decision I ever made, incidentally, was quitting as a stockboy at Kroger. Wow, I was a really, really, really bad bagger.*
Rather than being invited to play chess, how about joining a tennis foursome for some doubles. For my group no one would be under 65, a couple guys may be in early 80’s- they are good.
Doc Gooden was truly a unicorn with his strikeouts, and that is one stat that is particularly tough to compare eras.
His rate that first 35 starts was 10.96 per 9, which was over double the league K/9 then (5.0 for starters, 5.4 overall) Strider has an impressive 14.13, and the league average for starters in his two years is 8.3 (8.6 overall) For Strider to be the same amount over the leagues average as Gooden had then, he would have to be at 18.19 K/9.
I think it's really interesting that the mind-blowing strikeout rate was in Gooden's 1984 (age 19!) season, but it was the next season when he won the CY Young (his 12.2 WAR is the highest since the deadball era). His K/9 in '85 was "only" 8.7.
Joe's note about Gooden and Strider's early success brought back to mind something I've been trying to figure out...
Tony Gonsolin through his first 61 starts has an ERA+ of 164, which I kind of suspect is top-5 in the last 100 years. The only player I'm pretty sure had a better ERA+ through 60 starts is Gooden, but no other players come to mind. Does anyone know a systematic way to look at this?
Of course, Gonsolin's first 60 starts have come across five seasons due to various things, and he's only averaging about five innings per start. Still, I'd love to see a deeper dive into how historic Gonsolin's run prevention has been.
Brilliant readers (or Joe), can anyone help me out?
Short answer: Dwight Gooden is correct. He had Gonsolin beat with a 176 ERA+ for 66 starts, but did that in his first two seasons.
Longer answer: Using stathead, it's easier to go by seasons rather than games started. I searched for first five seasons down to first two seasons and reported the full season results where they first pass the 61 game threshold (it would take far too ling to go through partial seasons). The table for the first five season is at https://stathead.com/tiny/VBIzO.
Here are the results of those with an ERA+ of at least 140 at the end of the season for which they passed 61 games started:
--First five years: Gonsolin leads with 164, but others who are close are José Fernandez (150 for first 76 starts), Ohtani (142 over 63 starts)
--First three years: Roy Oswalt (152 for 75 starts), Matt Harvey (146 for 65 starts), Jerry Koosman (142 for 69 starts), Shane McClanahan (142 over 63 starts)
--First two years: Dwight Gooden (176 for 66 starts), Brandon Webb (143 over 63 starts)
After some more digging, I think Roy Oswalt is also a candidate. But I'm now pretty sure Gonsolin is top 2-3 by ERA+ through 60 starts in the last 100 years. I feel like this is something that should be featured on the Poscast's "we don't talk about this enough" segment.
It's probably even better than that since his ERA in his 22.1 innings as a reliver is 4.43 while his ERA in the 61 starts is 2.44. The ERA+ includes his relief numbers.
if i had any friends, i would surely refer them- but out in the world, people ONLY like me when i'm playing music- if not, then they stay away! and here on your site, it seems everybody has decided to not respond to me whatsoever- but still i am grateful for your amazing writing, whether or not i am loved or accepted or not!
The Grand Prize should obviously be a recording of Pos singing a rewritten version the Golden Girls theme starting with, "Thanks for referring a friend..."
To stick with the type of prizes that tend to get given out here (like Smith-Corona type written essays) it should probably be on some kind of hard medium. Probably an 8-track tape. ;-)
Rather than being invited to play chess, how about joining a tennis foursome for some doubles. For my group no one would be under 65, a couple guys may be in early 80’s- they are good.
Would make my day
Doc Gooden was truly a unicorn with his strikeouts, and that is one stat that is particularly tough to compare eras.
His rate that first 35 starts was 10.96 per 9, which was over double the league K/9 then (5.0 for starters, 5.4 overall) Strider has an impressive 14.13, and the league average for starters in his two years is 8.3 (8.6 overall) For Strider to be the same amount over the leagues average as Gooden had then, he would have to be at 18.19 K/9.
I think it's really interesting that the mind-blowing strikeout rate was in Gooden's 1984 (age 19!) season, but it was the next season when he won the CY Young (his 12.2 WAR is the highest since the deadball era). His K/9 in '85 was "only" 8.7.
I think one of the prizes should be participating in a draft on the poscast.
My eyes glaze over whenever I hear about some amazing, incredible, fantastic strikeout number.
Anybody know how to submit a Brilliant Challenge to Joe? I feel like he told us at the beginning but I forgot. Thanks.
Hi, you can email Joe at jp at joeposnanski dot com, thanks!
Thanks Larry! Will do it right now, I think he's going to like this one a lot.
I loved The Big Short, but Liar's Poker even more!
Ha, thanks but I’m a different Michael Lewis, a fellow writer with the same name.
Is this post Public?
It is, so feel free to share, thanks!
Joe's note about Gooden and Strider's early success brought back to mind something I've been trying to figure out...
Tony Gonsolin through his first 61 starts has an ERA+ of 164, which I kind of suspect is top-5 in the last 100 years. The only player I'm pretty sure had a better ERA+ through 60 starts is Gooden, but no other players come to mind. Does anyone know a systematic way to look at this?
Of course, Gonsolin's first 60 starts have come across five seasons due to various things, and he's only averaging about five innings per start. Still, I'd love to see a deeper dive into how historic Gonsolin's run prevention has been.
Brilliant readers (or Joe), can anyone help me out?
Short answer: Dwight Gooden is correct. He had Gonsolin beat with a 176 ERA+ for 66 starts, but did that in his first two seasons.
Longer answer: Using stathead, it's easier to go by seasons rather than games started. I searched for first five seasons down to first two seasons and reported the full season results where they first pass the 61 game threshold (it would take far too ling to go through partial seasons). The table for the first five season is at https://stathead.com/tiny/VBIzO.
Here are the results of those with an ERA+ of at least 140 at the end of the season for which they passed 61 games started:
--First five years: Gonsolin leads with 164, but others who are close are José Fernandez (150 for first 76 starts), Ohtani (142 over 63 starts)
--First three years: Roy Oswalt (152 for 75 starts), Matt Harvey (146 for 65 starts), Jerry Koosman (142 for 69 starts), Shane McClanahan (142 over 63 starts)
--First two years: Dwight Gooden (176 for 66 starts), Brandon Webb (143 over 63 starts)
Thanks, Ed! This is incredibly cool, and very much appreciated!
After some more digging, I think Roy Oswalt is also a candidate. But I'm now pretty sure Gonsolin is top 2-3 by ERA+ through 60 starts in the last 100 years. I feel like this is something that should be featured on the Poscast's "we don't talk about this enough" segment.
It's probably even better than that since his ERA in his 22.1 innings as a reliver is 4.43 while his ERA in the 61 starts is 2.44. The ERA+ includes his relief numbers.
if i had any friends, i would surely refer them- but out in the world, people ONLY like me when i'm playing music- if not, then they stay away! and here on your site, it seems everybody has decided to not respond to me whatsoever- but still i am grateful for your amazing writing, whether or not i am loved or accepted or not!
I like you, but I do not love you.
But I have a hard time showing love. It's not just you.
awwwwwww.... (((hugs)))
You’re a great contributor to the blog, keep going!
I think that I've written back! But...you tend to make good comments and always are interesting! Have a great day!
I accept you.
Joe REALLY does not like baseball songs
Take me out to the ballgame.
(Hey wait: THAT should be the prize for 25 referrals! Joe takes you to a ballgame.)
Put me in coach...
Do gift donations count as referrals?
The Grand Prize should obviously be a recording of Pos singing a rewritten version the Golden Girls theme starting with, "Thanks for referring a friend..."
To stick with the type of prizes that tend to get given out here (like Smith-Corona type written essays) it should probably be on some kind of hard medium. Probably an 8-track tape. ;-)