Reminder that throughout October — as the baseball playoffs kick into gear — I’m going to do a bunch of quick hits that I hope will bring a little joy to your mornings.
To the contrary I am making my case based on hard data while you are trying to argue that the benchmarks that applied to every position player in the HOF are no longer valid and that instead Trout should be judged by a standard that values walks the same as hits and does not penalize a player for striking out and not putting the ball in play. And a valuation system that you can’t explain;WAR. And what seems to be consistent with all you Fanboys of Trout is that you provide no hard facts to support your contentions. And I really don’t have time to explain all of the defects in Trout’s offense so I suggest you read my initial post in that regard (strikes more than any of the all time greats he is compared to by a lot; has terrible clutch hitting stats 40-50 points for his career below Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Pujols. But let’s just look at your contention that Trout is even close to Mays ; I know you can’t hear it but there is a cosmic laugh rolling across the baseball universe at this point to that absurd contention! Here are a few hard facts to help you realize this. So great defensive outfielders routinely have a significant number of outfield assists per season Mays routinely had 20+ outfield assists per season, the great Clemente would have have as many as 25 per season; even recent GG outfielders like Hunter Pence would have between 17-20+ a season; Trout has never even had double digits in outfield assists in any season (highest 7) and that is due in part because his arm is considered at best average; then there are putouts which is an indication of range; Mays 14 years plus of 400 putouts per season; Trout 1; Trout has been criticized from the beginning about his path to the ball but when he was younger his speed could make up for his poor judgements; but no longer! And of course he has never won a GG and has only been a finalist one year. take care now but I suggest you do a bit more homework before jump into something you actually know very little about
I don't get all the hyperbole with Trout. Yes, he's had a great start to his career but his career value is no where NEAR that of guys like Griffey. If Trout continues to put up great numbers for awhile then yes we can compare him to Griffey or Mantle. But he's just not there yet. Just for kicks: Mike Trout has fewer hits than Mark McLemore, fewer doubles than Mark Loretta, fewer HRs than Greg Vaughn, and fewer RBI than Mike Sweeney. Let's not get too carried away here just yet.
I appreciate the trip down memory lane; you must be old as me; and I’m old ! But unfortunately Pops everything thing you said was almost completely irrelevant but I appreciate the effort
I got to watch him here in SoCal since 2011. He signed a baseball and a poster for my brother and his first daughter at an Oakley store in 2012 or 2013. My brother asked him to sign his baby. He politely declined with a smile and a laugh. He's a consummate professional and an aspirational persona. His ability to play the game of baseball is unique and unparalleled. No one like Ohtani. No one like Trout either. I have the same wish you do, Joe. Hopefully, it'll come true one year.
First off I am an attorney and your logic is beyond flawed ; but let’s look at your premise that you can only compare players to those in their era and the best way to do that as Joe did in his book was to look at how many times they led the league in any offensive category; so Mr. Trout has never won a batting title nor a home run title; one RBI title and led the league in runs scored 4 times. Hardly HOF numbers and certainly not worthy of being included in the list of all time greats. The defense rests⚡️
Hmmmm! You admit, out I guess brag more likely that you are an attorney. Kinda full of yourself a bit. That means nothing to me- and I’m sure a lot of people.. There are good attorneys, bad attorneys, average attorneys- just like in every profession. From reading your posts on this blog, if you are resting your case, well I feel sorry for the guy you are defending. His goose is cooked.
It's not even worth engaging with what he wrote since it's completely disingenuous. As a lawyer, I'm reasonably sure he understands the actual meaning of the term "begging the question." I've never seen a question more begged than in his comment above.
You have my sympathies ; your insecurities and ignorance are showing but not more than your arrogance in thinking your assessment of my skills as an attorney has any validity or relevance what so ever to the discussion at hand; might I suggest an anger management class or perhaps some directed meditation of course you could always go back and finish up that GED. You take care now and remember this is all for fun⚡️
Trout is certainly no Chick Hafey, Chuck Klein, Edd Roush, Tommy McCarthy, Zack Wheat, Pie Traynor, Jim Bottomley, Lloyd Waner, Rick Ferrell, Harry Hooper, or any of those legends. He tried to pick up George Kelly's jock but hurt his back. Powers has convinced me -- Trout absolutely sucks.
No Trout does not suck he is a great home run hitter but he is not the best player in baseball nor is he one of the 10 greatest players of all time as Buster Olney purports
Well you sound like a prosecutor who is trying a defendant on eye witness testimony while concealing the results of the DNA test proving the defendant didn't do it from the defense. RBI is a team stat (dependent on base runners Infront of you) batting average doesn't include plate appearances that end in walks or hit batters or outs like a sacrifice fly & counts a double or home run the same as a single. His OBP & slugging are at the top of near the top every season he's played. He had breathtaking defense & base running. Before his defense & base running declined some the last 2-3 years it's pretty easy to say he played baseball at as high a peak as anyone ever. He's right there with Mays for peak all-around play but with even better on base numbers. We'll see if on the back half of his career if he agrees like pujols & Griffey or more like Mantle still great when he can stay on the field
Not to diminish anything Trout has done. He is amazing, an all time great. That said, comparing his career OPS to completed careers in the middle of his age 30 season is a lazy comp. Just to pick two, both Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols had career OPS over 1000 through their age 30 season. It’s still not common, but not quite as rare as Joes comparison might indicate. If he finishes his career here, who different story. And of course we are only talking about where he ends up in the list of greats. If he retired tomorrow he’s already on it.
No just the opposite old time pitchers as you refer to them had lower career ERAs and pitched way more complete games; in all facets of the game players from the 50s and 60s were superior skill wise to current major leaguers
A lot of those pitchers from the 50s & 60s played in a lower scoring era and have higher ERAs & less innings pitched than Kershaw. Yes they would have a season with 300 IP but would often have 5 healthy seasons and that was all she wrote. The game being managed differently doesn't make a player better or worse from a different era. They don't have control over that. I personally don't see pitch count & load management being effective in limiting injury when you ask a pitcher for max rotation and velocity on every pitch, arm injuries are probably higher than ever, but they have always been sky high & that's what is called for out of today's pitcher so why would you try to say anyone from the 50s is better because of it than Kershaw, Mad Max or Verlander.
I wasn't thinking about the workload thing, but I recall some work that Will Carroll and others did when he was with a company called Modus (Motus?) that makes wearable technology, which enables you to measure the stress on the elbow in real time, and to log that stress over pitching appearances.
They found no correlation between either frequent usage or severe usage with a propensity for injury, but what they DID find, if I recall, was that keeping the ratio between the peak stress and the constant stress within a certain range greatly reduced the chances of injury.
Which does lend itself to the old-school idea of throwing bullpens and relief outings in between starts, and throwing even on "off" days, to keep that constant stress up to a certain level where the ratio does not have a chance to go out of bounds. I'm as tired of the next guy of hearing the likes of Jim Kaat lamenting how these pitchers don't throw enough and yadda yadda yadda, but at the same time, he may be on to something...
Old time pitchers pitched in a VERY different environment. They weren't inherently tougher. They just didn't have to get 27 outs out of jacked hitters with the best conditioning, dietary and medicinal help, who work out during the entire off season to get better and stronger for the coming year. Most guys in the majors had to work a second job in the offseason to make ends meet. Jim Palmer once missed essentially an entire season because he spent the offseason painting his own house with his dad and his shoulder got screwed up. No highly-touted prospect would have to do that today, because his signing bonus would be large enough to hire painters.
Anyway, from 1951-60, pre-expansion, each team carried an average of 1.8 players per season who got enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title without hitting 10 homers. In the last 10 full seasons, the average is 0.67, or two players every three years. Many teams don't have anyone like that, and even the ones that do tend to be speedsters or defensive savants or players who walk a lot and play multiple positions. Myles Straw just became the first player in a decade to get 502 PA without hitting a homer. From 1951-60 there were 15 such seasons, including two each by future Hall of Famers Richie Ashburn and Nellie Fox. I don't think Straw is going to Cooperstown.
So pitchers have to work harder for each out, and every hitter is a power threat, or nearly every one. Of course nobody throws 300 innings anymore. A 5'9", 185-lb secondbaseman named "Scooter" hit four homers in a single game a few years ago. Nothing is out of bounds these days, and getting 27 outs is not as easy as it used to be.
I like just about anything Joe writes, but I'd be lying if I wasn't disappointed that his "quick hits" thus far have been about the same four guys he's been talking about all season: Ohtani, Trout, Pujols, Judge. Those guys are big stories, but can we get something about Adley Rutschman having the best rookie season for a catcher in 30 years? The Mariners ending a 20-year playoff drought on a walkoff? Spencer Strider's season? The Josh Hader trade blowing up in the Brewers' faces? Anything that's not Shohei/Trout/Pujols/Judge?
Well I think some of that is just circumstances. Pujols just reached 700. Judge 62. For a baseball writer/fan it’s pretty hard to just ignore those events.
I’m guarding Joe will move onto a lot of different topics, starting with his baseball preview that I see has just been posted. I’m looking forward to some words about the Mariners. Pretty sure I’ll get some.
The bigger his audience gets, the lowest common denominator he has to play to. You can't get 25 million viewers to watch the Wire, and that's why shows like The Bachelor and The Masked Singer exist. Joe used to be The Wire, now he's CSI Vegas. Success has its downside.
Joe I have a lot of respect for your opinion especially when it comes to baseball. And that is why for the life of me I can’t figure out why you don’t really see Mike Trout for what he is; a one dimensional home run hitter who strikes out a lot and has become a really lousy outfielder something Joe Maddon recognized and attempted to remedy by claiming that he was going to play Trout in left field to save his legs. OPS is a one dimensional measure of a players value that even by your own admission gives too much credit to walks and in Trout’s case I would argue that he benefited from so many walks because there was absolutely no other threat on his team; not a coincidence that his walk ratio has gone down each season since Othani has been on the team. And we don’t have time to go over all of the flaws and deficiencies in WAR but as my old algebra teacher used to say no answer is correct unless you can show all of your work. You guys can’t even agree on which formula to use much less show how you arrived at your results. So let’s use the criteria that was used to judge every position player in the HOF. Let’s start with strikeouts; Trout strikes out a lot and I mean a LOT!!! Now Mickey Mantle whom Trout is often compared to was notorious for striking out, however Mickey’s strikeouts per 162 games was 115; Reggie Jackson who struck out more times than any player in MLB history struck out 149 times per 162 Games. Trout strikes out 156 times per 162 games and that average went up this season ; if Trout had played 162 games he would have struck out 190 times!!!
Now there is always moaning and wailing about Mike Trout never making the playoffs and perhaps you should take a closer look at Trout being at least partially responsible. Baseball Reference has a couple of stats that are helpful in that regard; 2 outs, RISP, Trouts career average .266; Late & Close; he is even worse at .248 for his career; by comparison the Mick .305 and .323 respectively; Aaron .306; .317 and Musial .318; .325. Add to the fact that Trout hits an inordinate number of solo home runs; through the first five years of his career close to 70% of his homeruns were solo;even now over 60% are solo home runs and by comparison Mantle, Mays and Aaron were all around 50% for their careers; going back to Late & Close only about 10% of his 350 career home runs occurred in those situations. I realize MLB is desperate to convince us that current players are comparable to the greats of the game but while they are bigger and stronger that are not anywhere as skilled as the greats of the game like Williams, Musial, Aaron, Mantle and Mays just look at the decline in batting average as proof of that. MP
This reply is pointless as Michael's opinion is already so clearly formed.
So, 3 MVPs, top 5 every year of his career, *only 350 of his 1500 hits are HR, over 900 walks, hitting 300/400/580 for this career with a 1.000 OPS (176 OPS+), over 1,000 runs, only 850 RBI, but again, he can't control who gets on base ahead of him. Notice, no mention of WAR. Bonds and Pujols are the only guys in the last 60 years that posted these numbers in their 20's.
So MVP awards are political just ask Albert Belle; and you obviously did not read all of my comments I mention WAR at the very beginning and it is this simple you get to use WAR if you can show your calculations and you also have to specify whether you are using the Fangraphs formula or the ESPN formula although ESPN might be difficult because they refuse to disclose the formula they use and it is not worth my time to look it up but I would bet that Junior Griffey and ARod had better numbers than Trout their first 10 years
:) I thought you were a bit too serious to be trolling. The part about solo home runs though had me wondering. One quick, relevant fact to add to yours. Trout has batted 2nd in the order a lot more than any other spot. The other names you cited were almost all 3rd or 4th.
Isn't the analytic theory now that hitting 2d is the best place for your best hitter so he gets more AB's? How many times in a game does he bat 2d? It sounds like you're refuting it.
Only put that one out in reference to solo home runs. Batting second is better because you will get incrementally more at bats in a season (and other reasons) but will result in more solo home runs. About 60% of Trout ABs have been with no one on base. Mantle was just over 50%.
Sorry, I had to reply to one other statement you made. Comparing his late and close numbers to numbers of players who played in the 50s and 60s is truly unfair. As great as Bob Gibson was, when Aaron faced him for the 4th time in the game in the 9th inning, it was the 4th time he saw that stuff that day and yes, that helped Aaron. We know that it did. We have empirical proof that pitchers are not as good after 35 hitters as they were in the first 10 hitters. And Trout never, ever faces a pitcher for the 4th time a game. Often his 4 or 5 ABs are against 3 different pitchers (or more). You cannot compare that to what Musial or Aaron or Mays faced.
First off I would bet you never saw Bob Gibson or Koufax or Marichal pitch and comparing any of them to current pitchers is clearly not supported by the record; simply look at the career ERA and the number of complete games they threw. But if you want to compare contemporaries Miguel Cabrera comes in with clutch stats of .306/.288; Prince Albert .291/.288
There's a lot of context missing in your strikeout analysis. Over Mantle's career (1951-1968), the average strikeout rate per game grew from 3.77 to 5.89. During that time, the plate appearances per game dropped from ~39 to 37, so the average strikeout rate (K/PA) went from 9.7% to 15.9%. Mantle's K/PA for his career was 17% or consistently worse than league average. For Jackson's career ('67-'87), the K/PA stayed at roughly 16%, but his K/PA rate was 22.7% which was much worse than average. For Trout's career ('11-'22), the K/PA grew from 18.6% to 22.4%. Trout's averaging 22% for his career, or around league average. The times have changed, so you can't just look at raw strikeout numbers without considering the era.
And blaming him for hitting solo home runs is really blaming the Angels not putting runners on base.
A strike out is still a strike out a completely non -productive out and you actually make one of my other points players of this era are not as skilled as those of previous eras including they strike out a whole lot more; but just for your enlightenment Trout strikes out a lot more than contemporary greats that he is compared to; Barry Bonds struck out per 162 games 83 times ;Albert Pujols 74 times per 162
The two examples you brought up for strikeouts were Mantle and Jackson, both worse or much worse than their peers in strikeout rate. Trout is average. If that proves your point, I hope you're not an attorney. And if you're going to say Bonds and Pujols are better in this characteristic, that's still pretty elite company for Trout.
You say you don't like WAR, but Trout's OPS+ (strictly hitting relative to his peers) is only surpassed by Bonds and Williams since 1950 (and just barely, 185 and 182 to Trout's 176, with Mantle fourth at 172). If that makes Trout over-rated, you're a tougher grader than most.
As Brent H points out, pitching is much harder now, with higher velocities and bigger breaks. Trout is rarely facing a starting pitcher for the third or fourth time. You have to compare players in the era that they played.
Not responding to the rest of this (but I am sure others will), but this: "OPS is a one dimensional measure of a players value that even by your own admission gives too much credit to walks", is actually the opposite of what I believe I have heard in criticism of OPS. My understanding is that OBP is more important than SLG so that adding the two together to make OPS is really giving SLG more credit that it deserves (in relation to OBP, which of course includes walks)
Another player to add to the hope they can somehow stay healthy is Byron Buxton. Buxton seemed to be on a similar trajectory to Trout before freak injury after freak injury derailed him. Check out Trout's numbers in Cedar Rapids in 2010 to Buxton's in Cedar Rapids in 2013. Buck also seems to be a standup guy, loyal to the Twins and would be a boon to MLB if he can put together some healthy seasons.
Interesting wording by Joe- he’s still better at hitting a baseball than anybody. That’s a change from - he’s the best player in baseball. An acknowledgment of how his last few years have evolved.
Aside from missing a number of games, his game has changed in a few other areas:
He’s almost stopped stealing bases. 4 total in last 3 years- abbreviated years, but still. I think it is a combination of injury and decrease in speed. Will he ever add that skill back to his game? Don’t know how his other base running skills have changed.
Does his decrease in speed affect his fielding ability? It’s hard not to believe it wouldn’t. His fielding advanced stats have moved up and down over his career, so it’s hard to see a trend. But age does not bode well for him. Might he have to move from centerfield one day soon?
His walk to strikeout ratio, which he worked to make really good after his first couple of years to close to a 1:1 ratio, plummeted to close to a 1:3 ratio- far and away his career worst.
He has offset some of these decreases in skills by improving his power. But that seems to be his only improvement.
Trout’s awesomeness used to be his all around game. Now he's evolving into more of a power hitter type. Best hitter in the game? Very probably. Best overall player in the game- that seems to have shifted, or is about to.
It’s a shame that in his expected to be prime years-28+ to 31+ he only played in 208 games out of a normal 486, about 42 %. That’s really going to affect his career counting stats.
I believe the Angels simply stopped running him out of fear of injury. I have no doubt Trout could still steal 20-30 bases a year, but the upside of the SBs is outweighed by the significant downside of injury. He’s injured his thumb and missed time trying to steal bases. He had a leg injury causing him to miss most of 2021. He attempted one SB in 2022, and my guess is that was in the backend of a double steal. He’s been told not to run not because side he can’t, but out of fear of injury.
The first time I saw him in person he was so fast that every time he went out there I couldn't take my eyes off him. It's sad that that's no longer the case.
I saw him in June in Seattle. Went to game for primary purpose of being able to set I saw him play. He didn’t look great. Struck out with men on base in scoring position a couple of times, really had a dejected look after the second one jogging out to center field. Not really chained the field. Then hit a 2 run home run in the 10th to win game. Kind of a sneaky good game- without the home run would have been disappointing. But that seems to be who he is now. Not flashy but gets the job done often enough. This was shortly before he missed a ton of games. He looked like he was hurting some, just the way he moved. But I’m glad he hit home run. Just like I am glad in my previous game I saw live about 18 years ago I saw Pupils hit a Homer to win a game, although at the time I didn’t realize just how awesome he wolf turn out to be.
They do make it hard to see the Angels where I live. With the new season schedule, I will be able to see them play the Giants and Athletics and hope to see them play other teams. I don't trust MLB.net enough to have the games I want for me to subscribe to it. I hope Mike Trout makes enough games to end up eligible for the Hall of Fame. He is that level of player.
This is a lovely wish. I would love for Mike Trout to have his best year yet in 2023, too.
(Another player who is not bound for the postseason this year but who I imagine you would find a lot of joy in is Stephen Vogt. Ended his career on a high Wednesday against Trout’s team.)
To the contrary I am making my case based on hard data while you are trying to argue that the benchmarks that applied to every position player in the HOF are no longer valid and that instead Trout should be judged by a standard that values walks the same as hits and does not penalize a player for striking out and not putting the ball in play. And a valuation system that you can’t explain;WAR. And what seems to be consistent with all you Fanboys of Trout is that you provide no hard facts to support your contentions. And I really don’t have time to explain all of the defects in Trout’s offense so I suggest you read my initial post in that regard (strikes more than any of the all time greats he is compared to by a lot; has terrible clutch hitting stats 40-50 points for his career below Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Pujols. But let’s just look at your contention that Trout is even close to Mays ; I know you can’t hear it but there is a cosmic laugh rolling across the baseball universe at this point to that absurd contention! Here are a few hard facts to help you realize this. So great defensive outfielders routinely have a significant number of outfield assists per season Mays routinely had 20+ outfield assists per season, the great Clemente would have have as many as 25 per season; even recent GG outfielders like Hunter Pence would have between 17-20+ a season; Trout has never even had double digits in outfield assists in any season (highest 7) and that is due in part because his arm is considered at best average; then there are putouts which is an indication of range; Mays 14 years plus of 400 putouts per season; Trout 1; Trout has been criticized from the beginning about his path to the ball but when he was younger his speed could make up for his poor judgements; but no longer! And of course he has never won a GG and has only been a finalist one year. take care now but I suggest you do a bit more homework before jump into something you actually know very little about
I don't get all the hyperbole with Trout. Yes, he's had a great start to his career but his career value is no where NEAR that of guys like Griffey. If Trout continues to put up great numbers for awhile then yes we can compare him to Griffey or Mantle. But he's just not there yet. Just for kicks: Mike Trout has fewer hits than Mark McLemore, fewer doubles than Mark Loretta, fewer HRs than Greg Vaughn, and fewer RBI than Mike Sweeney. Let's not get too carried away here just yet.
I appreciate the trip down memory lane; you must be old as me; and I’m old ! But unfortunately Pops everything thing you said was almost completely irrelevant but I appreciate the effort
I got to watch him here in SoCal since 2011. He signed a baseball and a poster for my brother and his first daughter at an Oakley store in 2012 or 2013. My brother asked him to sign his baby. He politely declined with a smile and a laugh. He's a consummate professional and an aspirational persona. His ability to play the game of baseball is unique and unparalleled. No one like Ohtani. No one like Trout either. I have the same wish you do, Joe. Hopefully, it'll come true one year.
First off I am an attorney and your logic is beyond flawed ; but let’s look at your premise that you can only compare players to those in their era and the best way to do that as Joe did in his book was to look at how many times they led the league in any offensive category; so Mr. Trout has never won a batting title nor a home run title; one RBI title and led the league in runs scored 4 times. Hardly HOF numbers and certainly not worthy of being included in the list of all time greats. The defense rests⚡️
You are not an attorney.
Ah, the trolls are out in force! It must be that time of year.
This fellow is no lawyer. He’s obviously prosecuting, not defending. Even bad lawyers are smarter than this.
Hmmmm! You admit, out I guess brag more likely that you are an attorney. Kinda full of yourself a bit. That means nothing to me- and I’m sure a lot of people.. There are good attorneys, bad attorneys, average attorneys- just like in every profession. From reading your posts on this blog, if you are resting your case, well I feel sorry for the guy you are defending. His goose is cooked.
Why don't you attack what he wrote instead of him personally? That's what politicians do.
It's not even worth engaging with what he wrote since it's completely disingenuous. As a lawyer, I'm reasonably sure he understands the actual meaning of the term "begging the question." I've never seen a question more begged than in his comment above.
You have my sympathies ; your insecurities and ignorance are showing but not more than your arrogance in thinking your assessment of my skills as an attorney has any validity or relevance what so ever to the discussion at hand; might I suggest an anger management class or perhaps some directed meditation of course you could always go back and finish up that GED. You take care now and remember this is all for fun⚡️
Trout is certainly no Chick Hafey, Chuck Klein, Edd Roush, Tommy McCarthy, Zack Wheat, Pie Traynor, Jim Bottomley, Lloyd Waner, Rick Ferrell, Harry Hooper, or any of those legends. He tried to pick up George Kelly's jock but hurt his back. Powers has convinced me -- Trout absolutely sucks.
No Trout does not suck he is a great home run hitter but he is not the best player in baseball nor is he one of the 10 greatest players of all time as Buster Olney purports
Well you sound like a prosecutor who is trying a defendant on eye witness testimony while concealing the results of the DNA test proving the defendant didn't do it from the defense. RBI is a team stat (dependent on base runners Infront of you) batting average doesn't include plate appearances that end in walks or hit batters or outs like a sacrifice fly & counts a double or home run the same as a single. His OBP & slugging are at the top of near the top every season he's played. He had breathtaking defense & base running. Before his defense & base running declined some the last 2-3 years it's pretty easy to say he played baseball at as high a peak as anyone ever. He's right there with Mays for peak all-around play but with even better on base numbers. We'll see if on the back half of his career if he agrees like pujols & Griffey or more like Mantle still great when he can stay on the field
Not to diminish anything Trout has done. He is amazing, an all time great. That said, comparing his career OPS to completed careers in the middle of his age 30 season is a lazy comp. Just to pick two, both Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols had career OPS over 1000 through their age 30 season. It’s still not common, but not quite as rare as Joes comparison might indicate. If he finishes his career here, who different story. And of course we are only talking about where he ends up in the list of greats. If he retired tomorrow he’s already on it.
No just the opposite old time pitchers as you refer to them had lower career ERAs and pitched way more complete games; in all facets of the game players from the 50s and 60s were superior skill wise to current major leaguers
A lot of those pitchers from the 50s & 60s played in a lower scoring era and have higher ERAs & less innings pitched than Kershaw. Yes they would have a season with 300 IP but would often have 5 healthy seasons and that was all she wrote. The game being managed differently doesn't make a player better or worse from a different era. They don't have control over that. I personally don't see pitch count & load management being effective in limiting injury when you ask a pitcher for max rotation and velocity on every pitch, arm injuries are probably higher than ever, but they have always been sky high & that's what is called for out of today's pitcher so why would you try to say anyone from the 50s is better because of it than Kershaw, Mad Max or Verlander.
I wasn't thinking about the workload thing, but I recall some work that Will Carroll and others did when he was with a company called Modus (Motus?) that makes wearable technology, which enables you to measure the stress on the elbow in real time, and to log that stress over pitching appearances.
They found no correlation between either frequent usage or severe usage with a propensity for injury, but what they DID find, if I recall, was that keeping the ratio between the peak stress and the constant stress within a certain range greatly reduced the chances of injury.
Which does lend itself to the old-school idea of throwing bullpens and relief outings in between starts, and throwing even on "off" days, to keep that constant stress up to a certain level where the ratio does not have a chance to go out of bounds. I'm as tired of the next guy of hearing the likes of Jim Kaat lamenting how these pitchers don't throw enough and yadda yadda yadda, but at the same time, he may be on to something...
Old time pitchers pitched in a VERY different environment. They weren't inherently tougher. They just didn't have to get 27 outs out of jacked hitters with the best conditioning, dietary and medicinal help, who work out during the entire off season to get better and stronger for the coming year. Most guys in the majors had to work a second job in the offseason to make ends meet. Jim Palmer once missed essentially an entire season because he spent the offseason painting his own house with his dad and his shoulder got screwed up. No highly-touted prospect would have to do that today, because his signing bonus would be large enough to hire painters.
Anyway, from 1951-60, pre-expansion, each team carried an average of 1.8 players per season who got enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title without hitting 10 homers. In the last 10 full seasons, the average is 0.67, or two players every three years. Many teams don't have anyone like that, and even the ones that do tend to be speedsters or defensive savants or players who walk a lot and play multiple positions. Myles Straw just became the first player in a decade to get 502 PA without hitting a homer. From 1951-60 there were 15 such seasons, including two each by future Hall of Famers Richie Ashburn and Nellie Fox. I don't think Straw is going to Cooperstown.
So pitchers have to work harder for each out, and every hitter is a power threat, or nearly every one. Of course nobody throws 300 innings anymore. A 5'9", 185-lb secondbaseman named "Scooter" hit four homers in a single game a few years ago. Nothing is out of bounds these days, and getting 27 outs is not as easy as it used to be.
I like just about anything Joe writes, but I'd be lying if I wasn't disappointed that his "quick hits" thus far have been about the same four guys he's been talking about all season: Ohtani, Trout, Pujols, Judge. Those guys are big stories, but can we get something about Adley Rutschman having the best rookie season for a catcher in 30 years? The Mariners ending a 20-year playoff drought on a walkoff? Spencer Strider's season? The Josh Hader trade blowing up in the Brewers' faces? Anything that's not Shohei/Trout/Pujols/Judge?
Well I think some of that is just circumstances. Pujols just reached 700. Judge 62. For a baseball writer/fan it’s pretty hard to just ignore those events.
I’m guarding Joe will move onto a lot of different topics, starting with his baseball preview that I see has just been posted. I’m looking forward to some words about the Mariners. Pretty sure I’ll get some.
The bigger his audience gets, the lowest common denominator he has to play to. You can't get 25 million viewers to watch the Wire, and that's why shows like The Bachelor and The Masked Singer exist. Joe used to be The Wire, now he's CSI Vegas. Success has its downside.
Joe I have a lot of respect for your opinion especially when it comes to baseball. And that is why for the life of me I can’t figure out why you don’t really see Mike Trout for what he is; a one dimensional home run hitter who strikes out a lot and has become a really lousy outfielder something Joe Maddon recognized and attempted to remedy by claiming that he was going to play Trout in left field to save his legs. OPS is a one dimensional measure of a players value that even by your own admission gives too much credit to walks and in Trout’s case I would argue that he benefited from so many walks because there was absolutely no other threat on his team; not a coincidence that his walk ratio has gone down each season since Othani has been on the team. And we don’t have time to go over all of the flaws and deficiencies in WAR but as my old algebra teacher used to say no answer is correct unless you can show all of your work. You guys can’t even agree on which formula to use much less show how you arrived at your results. So let’s use the criteria that was used to judge every position player in the HOF. Let’s start with strikeouts; Trout strikes out a lot and I mean a LOT!!! Now Mickey Mantle whom Trout is often compared to was notorious for striking out, however Mickey’s strikeouts per 162 games was 115; Reggie Jackson who struck out more times than any player in MLB history struck out 149 times per 162 Games. Trout strikes out 156 times per 162 games and that average went up this season ; if Trout had played 162 games he would have struck out 190 times!!!
Now there is always moaning and wailing about Mike Trout never making the playoffs and perhaps you should take a closer look at Trout being at least partially responsible. Baseball Reference has a couple of stats that are helpful in that regard; 2 outs, RISP, Trouts career average .266; Late & Close; he is even worse at .248 for his career; by comparison the Mick .305 and .323 respectively; Aaron .306; .317 and Musial .318; .325. Add to the fact that Trout hits an inordinate number of solo home runs; through the first five years of his career close to 70% of his homeruns were solo;even now over 60% are solo home runs and by comparison Mantle, Mays and Aaron were all around 50% for their careers; going back to Late & Close only about 10% of his 350 career home runs occurred in those situations. I realize MLB is desperate to convince us that current players are comparable to the greats of the game but while they are bigger and stronger that are not anywhere as skilled as the greats of the game like Williams, Musial, Aaron, Mantle and Mays just look at the decline in batting average as proof of that. MP
This reply is pointless as Michael's opinion is already so clearly formed.
So, 3 MVPs, top 5 every year of his career, *only 350 of his 1500 hits are HR, over 900 walks, hitting 300/400/580 for this career with a 1.000 OPS (176 OPS+), over 1,000 runs, only 850 RBI, but again, he can't control who gets on base ahead of him. Notice, no mention of WAR. Bonds and Pujols are the only guys in the last 60 years that posted these numbers in their 20's.
So MVP awards are political just ask Albert Belle; and you obviously did not read all of my comments I mention WAR at the very beginning and it is this simple you get to use WAR if you can show your calculations and you also have to specify whether you are using the Fangraphs formula or the ESPN formula although ESPN might be difficult because they refuse to disclose the formula they use and it is not worth my time to look it up but I would bet that Junior Griffey and ARod had better numbers than Trout their first 10 years
If this is a sarcastic / troll comment, well done.
Wow you really are clueless ; sorry to confuse you with all of those relevant facts oh and by the way this is a sarcastic response
:) I thought you were a bit too serious to be trolling. The part about solo home runs though had me wondering. One quick, relevant fact to add to yours. Trout has batted 2nd in the order a lot more than any other spot. The other names you cited were almost all 3rd or 4th.
Isn't the analytic theory now that hitting 2d is the best place for your best hitter so he gets more AB's? How many times in a game does he bat 2d? It sounds like you're refuting it.
Only put that one out in reference to solo home runs. Batting second is better because you will get incrementally more at bats in a season (and other reasons) but will result in more solo home runs. About 60% of Trout ABs have been with no one on base. Mantle was just over 50%.
Sorry, I had to reply to one other statement you made. Comparing his late and close numbers to numbers of players who played in the 50s and 60s is truly unfair. As great as Bob Gibson was, when Aaron faced him for the 4th time in the game in the 9th inning, it was the 4th time he saw that stuff that day and yes, that helped Aaron. We know that it did. We have empirical proof that pitchers are not as good after 35 hitters as they were in the first 10 hitters. And Trout never, ever faces a pitcher for the 4th time a game. Often his 4 or 5 ABs are against 3 different pitchers (or more). You cannot compare that to what Musial or Aaron or Mays faced.
First off I would bet you never saw Bob Gibson or Koufax or Marichal pitch and comparing any of them to current pitchers is clearly not supported by the record; simply look at the career ERA and the number of complete games they threw. But if you want to compare contemporaries Miguel Cabrera comes in with clutch stats of .306/.288; Prince Albert .291/.288
There's a lot of context missing in your strikeout analysis. Over Mantle's career (1951-1968), the average strikeout rate per game grew from 3.77 to 5.89. During that time, the plate appearances per game dropped from ~39 to 37, so the average strikeout rate (K/PA) went from 9.7% to 15.9%. Mantle's K/PA for his career was 17% or consistently worse than league average. For Jackson's career ('67-'87), the K/PA stayed at roughly 16%, but his K/PA rate was 22.7% which was much worse than average. For Trout's career ('11-'22), the K/PA grew from 18.6% to 22.4%. Trout's averaging 22% for his career, or around league average. The times have changed, so you can't just look at raw strikeout numbers without considering the era.
And blaming him for hitting solo home runs is really blaming the Angels not putting runners on base.
A strike out is still a strike out a completely non -productive out and you actually make one of my other points players of this era are not as skilled as those of previous eras including they strike out a whole lot more; but just for your enlightenment Trout strikes out a lot more than contemporary greats that he is compared to; Barry Bonds struck out per 162 games 83 times ;Albert Pujols 74 times per 162
The two examples you brought up for strikeouts were Mantle and Jackson, both worse or much worse than their peers in strikeout rate. Trout is average. If that proves your point, I hope you're not an attorney. And if you're going to say Bonds and Pujols are better in this characteristic, that's still pretty elite company for Trout.
You say you don't like WAR, but Trout's OPS+ (strictly hitting relative to his peers) is only surpassed by Bonds and Williams since 1950 (and just barely, 185 and 182 to Trout's 176, with Mantle fourth at 172). If that makes Trout over-rated, you're a tougher grader than most.
As Brent H points out, pitching is much harder now, with higher velocities and bigger breaks. Trout is rarely facing a starting pitcher for the third or fourth time. You have to compare players in the era that they played.
Not responding to the rest of this (but I am sure others will), but this: "OPS is a one dimensional measure of a players value that even by your own admission gives too much credit to walks", is actually the opposite of what I believe I have heard in criticism of OPS. My understanding is that OBP is more important than SLG so that adding the two together to make OPS is really giving SLG more credit that it deserves (in relation to OBP, which of course includes walks)
Another player to add to the hope they can somehow stay healthy is Byron Buxton. Buxton seemed to be on a similar trajectory to Trout before freak injury after freak injury derailed him. Check out Trout's numbers in Cedar Rapids in 2010 to Buxton's in Cedar Rapids in 2013. Buck also seems to be a standup guy, loyal to the Twins and would be a boon to MLB if he can put together some healthy seasons.
Not sure which is worse..
Being an Angels fan, and seeing Trout and Shohei languish in obscurity... or, not being an angels fan and not seeing trout or shohei much at all ?
Please Rob M pull some strings and get these guys to decent teams, it is such a shame for baseball..
One of the handful of players in any sport that, when I saw him for the first time in person, I couldn't stop watching him.
Interesting wording by Joe- he’s still better at hitting a baseball than anybody. That’s a change from - he’s the best player in baseball. An acknowledgment of how his last few years have evolved.
Aside from missing a number of games, his game has changed in a few other areas:
He’s almost stopped stealing bases. 4 total in last 3 years- abbreviated years, but still. I think it is a combination of injury and decrease in speed. Will he ever add that skill back to his game? Don’t know how his other base running skills have changed.
Does his decrease in speed affect his fielding ability? It’s hard not to believe it wouldn’t. His fielding advanced stats have moved up and down over his career, so it’s hard to see a trend. But age does not bode well for him. Might he have to move from centerfield one day soon?
His walk to strikeout ratio, which he worked to make really good after his first couple of years to close to a 1:1 ratio, plummeted to close to a 1:3 ratio- far and away his career worst.
He has offset some of these decreases in skills by improving his power. But that seems to be his only improvement.
Trout’s awesomeness used to be his all around game. Now he's evolving into more of a power hitter type. Best hitter in the game? Very probably. Best overall player in the game- that seems to have shifted, or is about to.
It’s a shame that in his expected to be prime years-28+ to 31+ he only played in 208 games out of a normal 486, about 42 %. That’s really going to affect his career counting stats.
I believe the Angels simply stopped running him out of fear of injury. I have no doubt Trout could still steal 20-30 bases a year, but the upside of the SBs is outweighed by the significant downside of injury. He’s injured his thumb and missed time trying to steal bases. He had a leg injury causing him to miss most of 2021. He attempted one SB in 2022, and my guess is that was in the backend of a double steal. He’s been told not to run not because side he can’t, but out of fear of injury.
The first time I saw him in person he was so fast that every time he went out there I couldn't take my eyes off him. It's sad that that's no longer the case.
I saw him in June in Seattle. Went to game for primary purpose of being able to set I saw him play. He didn’t look great. Struck out with men on base in scoring position a couple of times, really had a dejected look after the second one jogging out to center field. Not really chained the field. Then hit a 2 run home run in the 10th to win game. Kind of a sneaky good game- without the home run would have been disappointing. But that seems to be who he is now. Not flashy but gets the job done often enough. This was shortly before he missed a ton of games. He looked like he was hurting some, just the way he moved. But I’m glad he hit home run. Just like I am glad in my previous game I saw live about 18 years ago I saw Pupils hit a Homer to win a game, although at the time I didn’t realize just how awesome he wolf turn out to be.
They do make it hard to see the Angels where I live. With the new season schedule, I will be able to see them play the Giants and Athletics and hope to see them play other teams. I don't trust MLB.net enough to have the games I want for me to subscribe to it. I hope Mike Trout makes enough games to end up eligible for the Hall of Fame. He is that level of player.
Well he is already eligible and has been for a couple of years.
This is a lovely wish. I would love for Mike Trout to have his best year yet in 2023, too.
(Another player who is not bound for the postseason this year but who I imagine you would find a lot of joy in is Stephen Vogt. Ended his career on a high Wednesday against Trout’s team.)
what a way for Vogt to go out! What a great career for a guy you wouldn't peg as an MLB all-star just by looking at him.
Hey, Joe, that should be .630 slugging percentage, not on-base percentage.