Lol Madison Bumgarner in 2045. I'm not loling because of the player, just the amount of time it could take him. Trying to figure out how it could take another 25 years for him to get elected. He's 30 right now, if he plays until he's 40 (at start of season), that will be ~2030. Then he waits 5 years, then gets 10 years on the ballot which would get him to 2045 if he is elected in his last year of eligibility.
Joe - I watched your interview on Great Day Washington and it was terrific. You really come across as enjoying being there and like it was the first time you had talked to anybody about this book. Nice job!
I tried my hand at predicting the Hall of Famers. From Joe's list I omitted MannyBManny, Molina, Rizzo, Felix H, Freeman, Strasburg, Harper, Cole, Baez, Buehler, and Tatis. Most of these just have lower WAR than others. In place of them I have Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Kimbrel, Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuna, Trevor Story, and Mike Soroka.
Joe's list is great. The biggest "miss", in my opinion, is probably Bregman. Then Stanton and then Kimbrel.
Great review and great choices. Two observations. (1) You've got JV listed twice (2031 and 2032). (2) You list Ichiro a year before he's eligible; he appeared in the first series of 2019 so he's not eligible until 2025 now. (Maybe swap Ichiro and Beltran?)
He fixed the Verlander error a couple hours before you even posted this comment (replaced him with Rizzo) and like 6 other people have already pointed out the error. The internet is so funny.
Cool idea. Evan Longoria is a bit of a surprising choice. Doesn't seem like a hall of famer to me, especially with how tough they have been on 3rd basemen. Also, why will it take Kershaw that long? His career is almost over and he should be a shoo-in.
Interesting that you think Vizquel will get in, and in only 2 years. I am a Tribe fan who was obsessed with those 90s teams as a teenager in Cleveland. So I'm obviously happy about it, and yet it feels weird to me. I think the main reason is that Lofton's candidacy was so totally ignored, yet I think he was better overall than Vizquel. WAY better, in fact. Vizquel has that amazing longevity, but Lofton stuck around a long time too. It was fashionable in those days for pundits to say that even with Belle, Ramirez, Thome, and Vizquel on the team, Lofton was actually the best all-around player. Why have they forgotten this? Because he jumped around teams so much in the latter half of his career? Because he had a bit of a testy, brash personality at times with the press? I'm especially ticked off at Indians beat reporter Paul Hoynes, who made it his mission to promote Vizquel but did nothing for Lofton.
I think Lofton really needs WAR to look good. He only had a 107 OPS+ and needs the boosts from fielding, baserunning, and avoiding DP to look like a Hall of Famer. I'd support him for the Hall, but the complete lack of support by others makes me wonder if I've missed something about him.
True. But that high WAR (aside from the very good hitting) reflects his famously amazing defense and baserunning that was on display for everyone to see. So it's not some hidden statistical quirk. And his OPS+ I think gets dwarfed by all the roid-fueled homers of the era when his combination of elite batting eye and bat-to-ball skills was more special for that time. I mean, he's not a "slam dunk" Hall of Famer but I think he's worthy of serious consideration at least as much as Vizquel and he didn't get any consideration at all.
Good luck on powering through the 100! Fun list too - my intuition differs from yours in some pretty big ways (I think McGriff is a tossup at best to get in via the VC; Vizquel may well get elected, but it'll take more than 2 years if it happens), but it warms my heart to see Bonds and Clemens (and I think you're right - it'll be the last year on the ballot if at all). Also fun trying to predict whether you think certain players (e.g., Harper) will play a really long time, or if it will take them a few ballots to get elected.
Fun Ruben Sierra fact: 54% of his career games were with Texas, but 120% of his career WAR (BB-Ref version) was with them. Yep - he was a cumulative -3.4 WAR in all those long years with the Yankees, A's, and various others. Or to put it a slightly different way (since he did return to the Rangers a couple of times later in his career) - he had more WAR after his age-25 season than he did when he retired.
One name missing from your list that I think is an ob.vious HOF candidate: Ben Zobrist.
Shall I calendar the follow up for this time in 2045?
Lol Madison Bumgarner in 2045. I'm not loling because of the player, just the amount of time it could take him. Trying to figure out how it could take another 25 years for him to get elected. He's 30 right now, if he plays until he's 40 (at start of season), that will be ~2030. Then he waits 5 years, then gets 10 years on the ballot which would get him to 2045 if he is elected in his last year of eligibility.
That's right. That's my prediction.
Wager?
That seems so far away.
Joe - I watched your interview on Great Day Washington and it was terrific. You really come across as enjoying being there and like it was the first time you had talked to anybody about this book. Nice job!
I’m sorry Joe, hate to point this out but I’m afraid you forgot Tommy Pham and Scooter Gennett. Otherwise it looks pretty good.
I tried my hand at predicting the Hall of Famers. From Joe's list I omitted MannyBManny, Molina, Rizzo, Felix H, Freeman, Strasburg, Harper, Cole, Baez, Buehler, and Tatis. Most of these just have lower WAR than others. In place of them I have Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Kimbrel, Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuna, Trevor Story, and Mike Soroka.
Joe's list is great. The biggest "miss", in my opinion, is probably Bregman. Then Stanton and then Kimbrel.
Or Acuna. Showing all signs of early ballot HoF — injury excepted.
Will you promise to revisit this article in 2045?
Great review and great choices. Two observations. (1) You've got JV listed twice (2031 and 2032). (2) You list Ichiro a year before he's eligible; he appeared in the first series of 2019 so he's not eligible until 2025 now. (Maybe swap Ichiro and Beltran?)
He fixed the Verlander error a couple hours before you even posted this comment (replaced him with Rizzo) and like 6 other people have already pointed out the error. The internet is so funny.
I read the list in the e-mail, but thanks for taking the time to unnecessarily point this out. The internet is so funny.
Cool idea. Evan Longoria is a bit of a surprising choice. Doesn't seem like a hall of famer to me, especially with how tough they have been on 3rd basemen. Also, why will it take Kershaw that long? His career is almost over and he should be a shoo-in.
Interesting that you think Vizquel will get in, and in only 2 years. I am a Tribe fan who was obsessed with those 90s teams as a teenager in Cleveland. So I'm obviously happy about it, and yet it feels weird to me. I think the main reason is that Lofton's candidacy was so totally ignored, yet I think he was better overall than Vizquel. WAY better, in fact. Vizquel has that amazing longevity, but Lofton stuck around a long time too. It was fashionable in those days for pundits to say that even with Belle, Ramirez, Thome, and Vizquel on the team, Lofton was actually the best all-around player. Why have they forgotten this? Because he jumped around teams so much in the latter half of his career? Because he had a bit of a testy, brash personality at times with the press? I'm especially ticked off at Indians beat reporter Paul Hoynes, who made it his mission to promote Vizquel but did nothing for Lofton.
Didn’t see Longoria making it. Maybe he’s including park effects?
I think Lofton really needs WAR to look good. He only had a 107 OPS+ and needs the boosts from fielding, baserunning, and avoiding DP to look like a Hall of Famer. I'd support him for the Hall, but the complete lack of support by others makes me wonder if I've missed something about him.
True. But that high WAR (aside from the very good hitting) reflects his famously amazing defense and baserunning that was on display for everyone to see. So it's not some hidden statistical quirk. And his OPS+ I think gets dwarfed by all the roid-fueled homers of the era when his combination of elite batting eye and bat-to-ball skills was more special for that time. I mean, he's not a "slam dunk" Hall of Famer but I think he's worthy of serious consideration at least as much as Vizquel and he didn't get any consideration at all.
How many more Cy Youngs does deGrom need to get in given that he's unlikely to win even 200 games?
Please humor me and say you can't believe you forgot to include Pete Alonso.
Good luck on powering through the 100! Fun list too - my intuition differs from yours in some pretty big ways (I think McGriff is a tossup at best to get in via the VC; Vizquel may well get elected, but it'll take more than 2 years if it happens), but it warms my heart to see Bonds and Clemens (and I think you're right - it'll be the last year on the ballot if at all). Also fun trying to predict whether you think certain players (e.g., Harper) will play a really long time, or if it will take them a few ballots to get elected.
Fun Ruben Sierra fact: 54% of his career games were with Texas, but 120% of his career WAR (BB-Ref version) was with them. Yep - he was a cumulative -3.4 WAR in all those long years with the Yankees, A's, and various others. Or to put it a slightly different way (since he did return to the Rangers a couple of times later in his career) - he had more WAR after his age-25 season than he did when he retired.
If Arenado is elected three years after Trout does that mean you don't think Arenado will be a first ballot inductee or that he'll play until he's 45?
He's limiting to two selections per year, so some guys are bound to get pushed back.
Oh- so, starting a debate. What about Kluber? What if he wins another Cy Young?
Verlander is very good. I don't think he's good enough to be elected twice, though (2031 and 2032).
Interesting review, but there are some errors:
-Frank Thomas was elected in 2014
-Juan Gonzalez and Dwight Gooden were not italicized
-Justin Verlander is so good that he can get voted in twice