OK, so our older daughter, Elizabeth, is overcome by Senioritis and ready to leave for college and our younger daughter, Katie, is taking driving lessons, and the other day I went for a painful stretching session at the gym, and, no, I’ve never felt older.
I think it's much more likely that their investigation of 2019 didn't uncover anything, but wasn't incredibly thorough, than that the Astros didn't cheat in 2019. I don't know about the buzzer thing, but I am skeptical that a group of players who benefited from cheating from the prior two years and weren't punished for it suddenly stopped.
The Astros might have backed off a little bit or they might have gotten better at hiding it. But my guess is that Manfred knows the investigation wasn't thorough enough to deny that something MIGHT be out there, and so he continues to hedge. You're right that it's bad for baseball, but I think Manfred has lost enough credibility at this point that even coming out with a clear, definitive statement won't allay the suspicions of the masses.
Joe kind of hits on something I've been thinking about. There are basically three possibilities with respect to buzzers.
1. The Astros did not use buzzers and everyone has been absolutely miserable in answering questions on the subject.
2. The Astros did use buzzers, but the players who were granted immunity and were totally forthcoming about what went on in 2017 chose to specifically lie about 2019.
3. The Astros did use buzzers and were completely honest about it, but Manfred realized how absolutely terrible it would look for ALL this to come out and then not punish the players who had been granted immunity, and so it is MLB suppressing the information.
For a while I had been thinking these were all pretty likely, but having written out number 2, it's just way too unlikely. I'm with Joe and don't think they used buzzers, but I don't think number 3 can be totally discounted.
That said, at this point no one is changing their mind on anything, so the Astros should just go all in on their roles as heels this year, like the Patriots did in 2007.
There’s no way on number 3. It’s true that MLB desperately wants not to expand the investigation to other teams, but they’re not holding back on the Astros. Best to have one villain and have them crucified. Also, as dumb as they have been, MLB is smart enough to know that it would eventually come out if they actively covered up further cheating by the Astros.
On number 2, I tend to agree with you.
On number 1, they’ve answered the question. I’m not sure what else they can say. I guess their answers sound a little parsed when they refer to the investigation at the same time, but I think their point is clear: “we didn’t use buzzers, and MLB’s investigation corroborates that.”
I think the league needs to interview every single player and coach and baseball related employee and compile evidence that either proves the buzzers were used or does not prove that they were. That investigation should be made public.
Stealing signs with a camera and computer programming and then relaying that information to batters in real time via trash can or whistle or buzzer to the degree of certainty that the Astros evidently were doing is seriously bad for the game. To my way of thinking this is worse than steroids, worse than anything since the gambling scandals of the BlackSox days.
There is a way to defeat this type of cheating that is really pretty simple though. Give the “buzzers” to the defense. Allow the pitcher and catcher to communicate electronically instead of by finger signs, maybe something hooked up to the inside of the glove. Impossible for the offense to see and faster than all the current signs. Heck, this might even speed up the games by a minute or two, so you know the league should be on board.
You're right that I won't. I have very little confidence in a behind-the-scenes self-investigation by an organization that has a vested financial interest in not finding evidence.
That's not to say that I believe the Astros used buzzers. But I have zero faith that MLB both knows with a high degree of certainty that they didn't (or didn't use some other means to cheat) and has decided to be completely truthful about it.
I agree that the Astros probably didn't use buzzers, but if there's one thing MLB can do to make themselves look worse right now, it's come out and defend the Astros.
And doing so wouldn't do anything to end the conversation either - I think it'd just add fuel to the fire.
MLB has already literally defended the Astros by telling all the managers that they better not be throwing at the Astro batters. Perhaps the commissioner's office cares more about doing the right thing than what people think.
I haven't been following this with any diligence, so I may be farting in the wind, but what is the big deal here? People have been stealing signs since the game began. Why else do teams change signs when there is a runner on second?
If the argument is that the Astros used technology to steal signs and crossed some sort of line, exactly where is this line? Technology has driven changes in the game since Deadball ended, why shouldn't it affect sign stealing? Should we remove the computers from the analytics departments of MLB teams because that's not how John McGraw did it? Should gloves be like the one Ty Cobb used and not the modern bushel basket?
From someone who hasn't been enmeshed in this story from the beginning, it seems like a tempest in a teapot.
Yes, teams have stolen signs since forever and no one is suggesting it's cheating. That's because both teams have an equal opportunity to try and steal signs if they can get a man on second (for example).
The difference here is that this stealing of signs was one-sided. Any game in Houston gave the home team the chance to gain an unfair (massive) advantage because the other team didn't have the same opportunity to use cameras in the stands that the home team had.
Teams have been trying this real time advantage since the 1800s. Joe has a good story woven into his Christy Mathewson article from that time. Hank Greenberg talked about using a rifle scope to get signs in real time in 1940. The Bobby Thompson Giants were using real time sign stealing (with buzzers, which is probably where the buzzer idea came from) Tony LaRussa used a centerfield monitor, and a toggle switch turning a light on and off on an outfield sign in the 1980s. The Yanks and Red Sox were doing it the same year as the Astros.
I think they should have been stepped on harder. (More Draft picks, losing International signing money, and most of all, the owner also being suspended) But I seriously thought that something like this was inevitable the moment the MLB swept the Yankees and Red Sox under the rug. With technology advancing so much, History tells you it was inevitable that something like this would happen. I am fine with people hating the Astros (before anyone says this, anyone who has read my comments on this blog before should know I am a Royals fan, not an Astros fan), I hope the camera delays and punishments deter it in the future, but I just think the torches and pitchforks crowd need a little perspective.
I think a lot of the uproar is due to the fact that the Astros were (and are, hopefully) leaders in analytics, and a whole lot of people *hate* analytics. Another part is that the Astros won the World Series when they were banging the trash can.
The line is using real-time video. That apparently had been made illegal just prior to 2017; I don't have the timing on that exactly.
Maybe a lot of the 88% that believe the Astros used buzzers do think computers should not be part of baseball. Maybe that should be Joe's next Twitter poll ;).
Manfred has to put on his Roger Goodell mask and turn this mess into a completely unfair circus where he can railroad an entire organization. Crush them with the might of the commissioner's power, which for some reason I assume is as powerful as the NFL commissioner's office. Worked for the NFL when they made up that nonsense about deflating footballs.
I appreciate that Joe is giving a hot take here, and is trying to do so while not getting caught up in the wave of anti-Astros sentiment. That said, it seems like a very strange take to me. Why would anyone have any confidence in the MLB Commissioner's office to run an effective and complete investigation right now? If Manfred did come out and say there is "no way" the Astros wore buzzers in 2019, would anyone believe him?
If Fiers hadn't spilled the beans on 2017, MLB would never have found out. Even once it was out there, MLB had to grant immunity to players to get anywhere in its investigation. They had to rely on the computer research of a random Astros fan to find out how much they really benefited from the banging. Why would we think they are competent (or maybe motivated) enough to get to the bottom of what really happened in 2019?
My own feeling is that buzzers may or may not have been worn, but MLB has not done nearly enough work to find out. I would much rather see them double down on more investigation than issue a comforting statement about it.
The MLB made their mistake in 2017. They found out near the end of the August that the Yankees and Red Sox were stealing signs in real time. (The Red Sox were using Apple Watches) This was concurrent with the Astros scheme. (Which makes Aaron Judge's comments simply laughable) They gave them a small undisclosed fine (Going to hurricane relief) and put out a quiet memo to Owners and GMs not to use electronic sign stealing methods. If you blinked, you missed it. What they did not do was put into place a system to thwart this, and now we have two consecutive World Champions (The Alex Cora led Red Sox did it in 2018 as well) who were doing this. The MLB could have seen the obvious danger to competitive balance in this and taken proactive steps to stop the inevitable. Instead they kept it as quiet as possible and the problem exploded.
As far as the buzzer goes, it is a laughable conspiracy theory started by some nobody twitter guy that rode the wave of Houston hate into people thinking it was real. Welcome to the age of social media. The MLB mandated an 8 second delay on the monitors prior to 2019, so it wouldn't have worked anyway.
How in the world do you know how much work MLB has done about 2019? There is zero evidence that buzzers were used. It's a completely made-up story, a fantasy.
I don't know how much work MLB has done to investigate it, and neither do you. I do know how little they have done to prove to me or anyone else that they are trustworthy as far as their investigative process. I also know the Astros are a team who cheated all the way through during an entire baseball season and had historic improvements in certain aspects of hitting because of it. The idea that they suddenly abandoned their cheating ways even before being caught is the fantasy.
You're right. I should not have said that MLB hasn't done enough work to disprove buzzers. A better way to phrase it would be: I have zero confidence that MLB has done enough work. They have not provided anything that would make me think that they have.
Yes, I do believe they stopped using the trash can. That is kind of the point. They cheated all year in 2017 and got away with it, even though their methodology should have been pretty easy to catch. Someone in their organization saying, "Hey - instead of using loud trash cans that everyone in the stadium can hear, how about we use silent buzzers that only the players can feel?"... that seems like a pretty logical leap to me.
I'm not saying it happened for certain, but rather that I am not convinced that it did not happen. I will not be convinced until I see something that shows MLB did an exhaustive investigation, enough so that if any evidence existed they would have found it. I think it much more likely that MLB gave a cursory look, and then decided that they were not really interested in digging up more dirt that would further escalate an already bad scandal.
Joe, I see your point but I think you are missing an important one. Manfred and the MLB have little to no credibility right now after: 1) they dragged their feet on officially investigating the Astros until they were essentially forced to by Fiers' public statements, and 2) zero punishment of any kind against the players (I know about the immunity deal and the precedence, etc.). No matter how forceful a statement the MLB issues about the 2019 Astros, do you really think it would move the needle on what people believe about Altuve's magical buzzers?
There is evidence for the trash can stuff. There is no evidence for the magical buzzers. Can't you tell the difference?
There's something more to it. You believe in guilty until proven innocent (and maybe guilty even after proven innocent). I believe that's a rotten, horrible philosophy to have. Even murderers must be proven guilty before they are punished. The right way to think about allegations of cheating, trash cans or buzzers, is to assume innocence until guilt is proven. I would've said *that* a year ago.
They may or may not have used buzzers. MLB would never have even investigated the trash can bangs, if not for Fiers going to The Athletic. We have a right to be skeptical about the results of any investigation conducted by MLB, an organization not especially noted for its transparency. And unfortunately, MLB has a vested interest in this debacle being shut down as quickly as possible. They wanted the steroid issue to go away, too.
I think it's much more likely that their investigation of 2019 didn't uncover anything, but wasn't incredibly thorough, than that the Astros didn't cheat in 2019. I don't know about the buzzer thing, but I am skeptical that a group of players who benefited from cheating from the prior two years and weren't punished for it suddenly stopped.
The Astros might have backed off a little bit or they might have gotten better at hiding it. But my guess is that Manfred knows the investigation wasn't thorough enough to deny that something MIGHT be out there, and so he continues to hedge. You're right that it's bad for baseball, but I think Manfred has lost enough credibility at this point that even coming out with a clear, definitive statement won't allay the suspicions of the masses.
How bout' we put it this way: If you cheated then you suffer the consequences no matter how harsh.
Joe kind of hits on something I've been thinking about. There are basically three possibilities with respect to buzzers.
1. The Astros did not use buzzers and everyone has been absolutely miserable in answering questions on the subject.
2. The Astros did use buzzers, but the players who were granted immunity and were totally forthcoming about what went on in 2017 chose to specifically lie about 2019.
3. The Astros did use buzzers and were completely honest about it, but Manfred realized how absolutely terrible it would look for ALL this to come out and then not punish the players who had been granted immunity, and so it is MLB suppressing the information.
For a while I had been thinking these were all pretty likely, but having written out number 2, it's just way too unlikely. I'm with Joe and don't think they used buzzers, but I don't think number 3 can be totally discounted.
That said, at this point no one is changing their mind on anything, so the Astros should just go all in on their roles as heels this year, like the Patriots did in 2007.
There’s no way on number 3. It’s true that MLB desperately wants not to expand the investigation to other teams, but they’re not holding back on the Astros. Best to have one villain and have them crucified. Also, as dumb as they have been, MLB is smart enough to know that it would eventually come out if they actively covered up further cheating by the Astros.
On number 2, I tend to agree with you.
On number 1, they’ve answered the question. I’m not sure what else they can say. I guess their answers sound a little parsed when they refer to the investigation at the same time, but I think their point is clear: “we didn’t use buzzers, and MLB’s investigation corroborates that.”
I think the league needs to interview every single player and coach and baseball related employee and compile evidence that either proves the buzzers were used or does not prove that they were. That investigation should be made public.
Stealing signs with a camera and computer programming and then relaying that information to batters in real time via trash can or whistle or buzzer to the degree of certainty that the Astros evidently were doing is seriously bad for the game. To my way of thinking this is worse than steroids, worse than anything since the gambling scandals of the BlackSox days.
There is a way to defeat this type of cheating that is really pretty simple though. Give the “buzzers” to the defense. Allow the pitcher and catcher to communicate electronically instead of by finger signs, maybe something hooked up to the inside of the glove. Impossible for the offense to see and faster than all the current signs. Heck, this might even speed up the games by a minute or two, so you know the league should be on board.
The commissioner's office already investigated buzzers. If you're not satisfied with the results, you never will be.
You're right that I won't. I have very little confidence in a behind-the-scenes self-investigation by an organization that has a vested financial interest in not finding evidence.
That's not to say that I believe the Astros used buzzers. But I have zero faith that MLB both knows with a high degree of certainty that they didn't (or didn't use some other means to cheat) and has decided to be completely truthful about it.
The info should come out before the season starts.
I agree that the Astros probably didn't use buzzers, but if there's one thing MLB can do to make themselves look worse right now, it's come out and defend the Astros.
And doing so wouldn't do anything to end the conversation either - I think it'd just add fuel to the fire.
MLB has already literally defended the Astros by telling all the managers that they better not be throwing at the Astro batters. Perhaps the commissioner's office cares more about doing the right thing than what people think.
I haven't been following this with any diligence, so I may be farting in the wind, but what is the big deal here? People have been stealing signs since the game began. Why else do teams change signs when there is a runner on second?
If the argument is that the Astros used technology to steal signs and crossed some sort of line, exactly where is this line? Technology has driven changes in the game since Deadball ended, why shouldn't it affect sign stealing? Should we remove the computers from the analytics departments of MLB teams because that's not how John McGraw did it? Should gloves be like the one Ty Cobb used and not the modern bushel basket?
From someone who hasn't been enmeshed in this story from the beginning, it seems like a tempest in a teapot.
Yes, teams have stolen signs since forever and no one is suggesting it's cheating. That's because both teams have an equal opportunity to try and steal signs if they can get a man on second (for example).
The difference here is that this stealing of signs was one-sided. Any game in Houston gave the home team the chance to gain an unfair (massive) advantage because the other team didn't have the same opportunity to use cameras in the stands that the home team had.
Teams have been trying this real time advantage since the 1800s. Joe has a good story woven into his Christy Mathewson article from that time. Hank Greenberg talked about using a rifle scope to get signs in real time in 1940. The Bobby Thompson Giants were using real time sign stealing (with buzzers, which is probably where the buzzer idea came from) Tony LaRussa used a centerfield monitor, and a toggle switch turning a light on and off on an outfield sign in the 1980s. The Yanks and Red Sox were doing it the same year as the Astros.
I think they should have been stepped on harder. (More Draft picks, losing International signing money, and most of all, the owner also being suspended) But I seriously thought that something like this was inevitable the moment the MLB swept the Yankees and Red Sox under the rug. With technology advancing so much, History tells you it was inevitable that something like this would happen. I am fine with people hating the Astros (before anyone says this, anyone who has read my comments on this blog before should know I am a Royals fan, not an Astros fan), I hope the camera delays and punishments deter it in the future, but I just think the torches and pitchforks crowd need a little perspective.
I think a lot of the uproar is due to the fact that the Astros were (and are, hopefully) leaders in analytics, and a whole lot of people *hate* analytics. Another part is that the Astros won the World Series when they were banging the trash can.
The line is using real-time video. That apparently had been made illegal just prior to 2017; I don't have the timing on that exactly.
Maybe a lot of the 88% that believe the Astros used buzzers do think computers should not be part of baseball. Maybe that should be Joe's next Twitter poll ;).
Are you an Astros fan?
Is Joe an Astros fan? Because only Astros fans say they didn't use magical buzzers, right?
Your deflection confirms it. Thanks.
Yes, clearly.
Manfred has to put on his Roger Goodell mask and turn this mess into a completely unfair circus where he can railroad an entire organization. Crush them with the might of the commissioner's power, which for some reason I assume is as powerful as the NFL commissioner's office. Worked for the NFL when they made up that nonsense about deflating footballs.
I appreciate that Joe is giving a hot take here, and is trying to do so while not getting caught up in the wave of anti-Astros sentiment. That said, it seems like a very strange take to me. Why would anyone have any confidence in the MLB Commissioner's office to run an effective and complete investigation right now? If Manfred did come out and say there is "no way" the Astros wore buzzers in 2019, would anyone believe him?
If Fiers hadn't spilled the beans on 2017, MLB would never have found out. Even once it was out there, MLB had to grant immunity to players to get anywhere in its investigation. They had to rely on the computer research of a random Astros fan to find out how much they really benefited from the banging. Why would we think they are competent (or maybe motivated) enough to get to the bottom of what really happened in 2019?
My own feeling is that buzzers may or may not have been worn, but MLB has not done nearly enough work to find out. I would much rather see them double down on more investigation than issue a comforting statement about it.
The MLB made their mistake in 2017. They found out near the end of the August that the Yankees and Red Sox were stealing signs in real time. (The Red Sox were using Apple Watches) This was concurrent with the Astros scheme. (Which makes Aaron Judge's comments simply laughable) They gave them a small undisclosed fine (Going to hurricane relief) and put out a quiet memo to Owners and GMs not to use electronic sign stealing methods. If you blinked, you missed it. What they did not do was put into place a system to thwart this, and now we have two consecutive World Champions (The Alex Cora led Red Sox did it in 2018 as well) who were doing this. The MLB could have seen the obvious danger to competitive balance in this and taken proactive steps to stop the inevitable. Instead they kept it as quiet as possible and the problem exploded.
As far as the buzzer goes, it is a laughable conspiracy theory started by some nobody twitter guy that rode the wave of Houston hate into people thinking it was real. Welcome to the age of social media. The MLB mandated an 8 second delay on the monitors prior to 2019, so it wouldn't have worked anyway.
How in the world do you know how much work MLB has done about 2019? There is zero evidence that buzzers were used. It's a completely made-up story, a fantasy.
I don't know how much work MLB has done to investigate it, and neither do you. I do know how little they have done to prove to me or anyone else that they are trustworthy as far as their investigative process. I also know the Astros are a team who cheated all the way through during an entire baseball season and had historic improvements in certain aspects of hitting because of it. The idea that they suddenly abandoned their cheating ways even before being caught is the fantasy.
If you don't know how much work MLB has done, why did you say they haven't done nearly enough work?
What are these historic improvements in hitting?
It's a fact that they stopped using the trash can some time in 2018. Do you not believe that?
You're right. I should not have said that MLB hasn't done enough work to disprove buzzers. A better way to phrase it would be: I have zero confidence that MLB has done enough work. They have not provided anything that would make me think that they have.
For historic improvements in hitting: https://theathletic.com/1573075/2020/01/31/does-electronic-sign-stealing-work-the-astros-numbers-are-eye-popping/
Yes, I do believe they stopped using the trash can. That is kind of the point. They cheated all year in 2017 and got away with it, even though their methodology should have been pretty easy to catch. Someone in their organization saying, "Hey - instead of using loud trash cans that everyone in the stadium can hear, how about we use silent buzzers that only the players can feel?"... that seems like a pretty logical leap to me.
I'm not saying it happened for certain, but rather that I am not convinced that it did not happen. I will not be convinced until I see something that shows MLB did an exhaustive investigation, enough so that if any evidence existed they would have found it. I think it much more likely that MLB gave a cursory look, and then decided that they were not really interested in digging up more dirt that would further escalate an already bad scandal.
Joe, I see your point but I think you are missing an important one. Manfred and the MLB have little to no credibility right now after: 1) they dragged their feet on officially investigating the Astros until they were essentially forced to by Fiers' public statements, and 2) zero punishment of any kind against the players (I know about the immunity deal and the precedence, etc.). No matter how forceful a statement the MLB issues about the 2019 Astros, do you really think it would move the needle on what people believe about Altuve's magical buzzers?
Stupid people may not be convinced. But we really need to stop caring what stupid people think.
I’m not convinced. Guess that makes me stupid, huh?
I don't know if you're stupid or not. But the belief that the 2019 Astros used magical buzzers is a stupid one.
Just realize that if we had been talking about "magical trash can bangs" a year ago, you would be saying the same thing.
There is evidence for the trash can stuff. There is no evidence for the magical buzzers. Can't you tell the difference?
There's something more to it. You believe in guilty until proven innocent (and maybe guilty even after proven innocent). I believe that's a rotten, horrible philosophy to have. Even murderers must be proven guilty before they are punished. The right way to think about allegations of cheating, trash cans or buzzers, is to assume innocence until guilt is proven. I would've said *that* a year ago.
They may or may not have used buzzers. MLB would never have even investigated the trash can bangs, if not for Fiers going to The Athletic. We have a right to be skeptical about the results of any investigation conducted by MLB, an organization not especially noted for its transparency. And unfortunately, MLB has a vested interest in this debacle being shut down as quickly as possible. They wanted the steroid issue to go away, too.
The Astros didn't cause global warming. But one look at the billboards in left field tells you they aren't interested in stopping it...