Ten Thoughts at the All-Star Break

A few teams, players and stats that stand out at the midway point of the MLB season.

All-Star Break! Let’s break down some baseball!

But first, it’s time for Clue No. 2 in the FIFTY SEASONS Cover Contest. For those of you who missed it, there’s a baseball player batting on the cover of FIFTY SEASONS, my countdown of the fifty individual seasons (plus stories!) that echo through the years (coming out February 2). I’m going to reveal the cover here a week from Thursday, July 23, and if you are one of the first five people to guess that player before the reveal, well, there’s a prize! I’m asking people to only guess once per clue.

We got lots and lots (and lots) of guesses based on the first clue, which was simply “You’re not just going to guess this player.” I was pretty confident nobody would get it right on that clue alone, and nobody did, but I have to say that the guesses that came in were fantastic. Almost every guess — from Joe Charboneau to Shohei Ohtani to Mark Fidrych to Lou Boudreau (!) — is indeed a featured player in this book!

So here’s your next clue: This player spent his entire career with one team.

You can send in your guesses here!

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Ten Things I’m Thinking About at the All-Star Break

No. 1: The Washington Bullpen

I know, I know, it doesn’t seem like the Nationals’ terrible bullpen should be at the top of this list, but it is because Washington is so much better than I expected, and it just doesn’t matter.

Over the weekend against the Yankees, the Washington bullpen blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth on Friday, a 2-0 lead in the eighth on Saturday, and a 3-2 lead in the eighth on Sunday.

In that Friday game, the Washington Nationals tried to lock things down in the ninth with Matt Krook, whom I had never heard of, but I do admire the spelling of Krook. The Nationals are apparently his fourth big-league team since 2023. That might be because of his lifetime 14.73 ERA. I was hoping for the best after Krook got Cody Bellinger to ground out to second. He promptly gave up a single to Jasson Dominguez and a middle-deck homer to Jazz Chisholm. So that didn’t work out too well.

In came Justin Lawrence. I feel like I have heard of Justin Lawrence, but I couldn’t tell you why. I might be confusing him with John Laurens, Revolutionary War hero and one of my favorites in “Hamilton.” I might also be confusing him with Johnny Lawrence, who lost to Daniel LaRusso in the final of the famed 1984 Under-18 All-Valley Karate Championships.

In any case, Justin came into the game with a 5.40 ERA and after striking out José Caballero, he gave up a 109-mph homer to Austin Wells — a homer that left the park in less time than it took you to say the words “left the park.”

Like I say, the Nationals are so much better than I was expecting. James Wood is putting up an MVP season. CJ Abrams is not far behind. Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead are having excellent seasons. Nasim Nuñez leads the league in doubles. This is an exciting team! But that bullpen. Ugh.

No. 2: Wait, Which Teams Lead Baseball in Runs?

The Washington Nationals are currently in a tie for the most runs in baseball. Well, we went over that already.

But do you know who they are tied with? Don’t look, just guess.

LA? No. Cubbies? No. Yankees? Are you kidding me? Nobody in the American League is even in the top five. Milwaukee? No. Philadelphia? No. Atlanta? No.

The Pittsburgh Pirates lead baseball in runs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates.

The … Pittsburgh … Pirates.

How do the Pirates lead the league in runs? Well, incredibly, it’s because EVERY SINGLE PLAYER ON THAT TEAM — with the exception of Marcell Ozuna and their young catcher Henry Davis — IS CRUSHING. I mean, Bryan Reynolds is crushing, and Spencer Horwitz is crushing (well, he’s hurt, but he was crushing), and Ryan O’Hearn is crushing, and Oneil Cruz and Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum and …

and ESMERLYN VALDÉZ!

Holy Kashmoles, Esmerlyn Valdez. He’s 22 years old, was not listed among the Top 100 prospects by anybody, was called up on May 22 and hit .083 in his first nine games.

Since then? He has hit .386/.443/.843 with six doubles, a triple and eight home runs in 19 games. He’s not had enough plate appearances to get a full Statcast™ Percentile page, but his provisional page is bananas. He’s basically barreling every ball. He’s hitting everything hard. They have started calling him “The Magician,” and Pittsburgh’s big sports radio station says he swings a magic stick made of OPS.

The Pirates’ offense is rolling, which makes it feel so sad that Paul Skenes has, I don’t know, forgotten how to dominate? What gives with Skenes? In his last 11 starts, the Pirates are 2-9, and his ERA is 4.94. Yikes. There’s been a noticeable dip in velocity. His offspeed pitches are getting hit. He’s just not the same guy. Maybe it’s a slump. Maybe it’s something more. It hurts the heart to think about.

No. 3: How panicked should Yankees fans be about Aaron Judge?

We are not known here for feeling great sympathy for Yankees fans, but I can’t help but feel lousy about this whole Aaron Judge thing. This is obvious, but it’s worth repeating: The Yankees are not a good baseball team without Aaron Judge. The Dodgers probably win the National League West even without Shohei, but the Dodgers are their own thing — no other team in the game could afford to lose one of the greatest players in baseball history. The Yankees certainly cannot. They MIGHT sneak into the playoffs without Judge simply because the American League is pretty awful and Ben Rice has been doing a commendable Judge impression. But they also might not. They’re just not very good without him.

And we don’t really know what’s going on with Judge. The Yankees tend to be the least transparent team in baseball when it comes to injuries, and their messaging about Judge’s right rib stress fracture has been all over the place. At last check, the message seems to be that Judge will be back in mid-August and that he “should” play this season. None of that feels especially comforting.

Judge has already locked his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame. He is one of the greatest hitters in baseball history and is in the conversation for greatest-ever right-handed hitter. He alters the game as few ever have. He’s also 34 years old, and there’s no telling how an injury like this affects a 6-foot-7, 282-pound baseball monster because there’s never been anyone quite like Judge before. We always hope for the best here, and the best is that Judge does come back in August, rounds into shape, and is at full power come October.

But, yeah, I certainly couldn’t blame Yankees fans for feeling a little panic.

No. 4: So PCA is Really Good, Huh?

Pete Crow Armstrong’s 2025 season:

First 87 games: .274/.309/.559 with 23 homers and 26 stolen bases.

Last 70 games: .211/.258/.375 with 8 homers and 9 stolen bases.

There was this sense in the middle of last season that the league had figured out PCA. And, clearly, they had. For one thing, teams found he would chase any pitch thrown within a five-mile radius. Of course, PCA was so good on the bases and in the outfield that he still put up a six-WAR season, got a little MVP support, and the future looked plenty bright.

But I do suspect many gave up on the idea that PCA could be, you know, the best player in baseball, non-Shohei Division.

Here’s the wonderful thing about baseball: Yes, the league can adjust to you. But you can then adjust back. And this year, PCA strikes back. His numbers are off-the-charts. He’s hitting .291/.386/.531 with 21 homers and 24 stolen bases through 96 games, and leads the league in WAR. But it’s the adjustments that are so striking: That on-base percentage is ONE HUNDRED POINTS higher than last year. This is in part because he’s walking a lot more and he’s getting hit by some pitches. But he’s also just hitting the ball a lot harder. His hard-hit percentage last year was below average. This year, he’s in the 87th percentile.

I think that’s partly because he’s just working the count way better. He still strikes out a ton, and I imagine he always will — that’s just baked into his game. But he’s just getting ahead in the count more often now, and he’s hitting .326 and slugging .640 when he’s ahead in the count. In so many ways, baseball is a simple game.

Anyway, PCA is probably your first half MVP in the National League.

Again, this is non-Shohei division. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: We should give Shohei Ohtani the Shohei Award every year, the highest award in all of sports, and then let the mortals battle it out for MVP.

No. 5: The Pale Hose Bombers

Over the weekend, the Chicago White Sox swept the Sacramento A’s, and they are now five games over .500 and tied with Cleveland for the lead in the American League West.

In those three games, their No. 2-No. 4 hitters were as follows:

2. Munetaka Murakami

3. Colson Montgomery

4. Miguel Vargas

None of those three were on the 2024 White Sox team that lost 121 games — well, Vargas was traded to Chicago late in that year, so he did have to endure 42 of those games. But none of them were prominent members of that team.

Now:

• Murakami has 20 home runs

• Montgomery has 23 home runs

• Vargas has 21 home runs

All three are in the American League top ten in home runs. No other team has three bombers among the league’s top ten.

Suddenly, you absolutely do not want to pitch to these guys.

And who is Tristan Peters? I guess the White Sox purchased him from Tampa Bay back in December — and he’s hitting .300 with extra-base power and good defense in center field.

And who is Davis Martin? I mean that guy DEFINITELY sounds like a golfer near the top of the leaderboard at the Greater Greensboro Open. But no, he’s a Texas righty with an unhittable slider and a Bugs Bunny change-up. And Sean Burke? Sam Antonacci? Braden Montgomery? They’ve got another Montgomery?

I’m kind of falling for the White Sox, I have to say.

No. 6: The Best Double Play Combo in the Game

Yeah, the Miami Marlins have the best double play combination in baseball. I don’t know that it’s even close. Second baseman Xavier Edwards has played in every game, he’s hitting .300, stealing a few bases, knocking a few extra-base hits, walking more than he strikes out and he’s playing excellent defense.

And Otto Lopez? No matter how many times I confuse him with Otto Velez, he just keeps on roping. He’s hitting .334, which leads the league. He also leads the league in hits and doubles. He’s stolen 17 bases. He’s also playing excellent defense.

I always used to love that old chestnut about how a good team has to be strong up the middle. I don’t know that there was ever anything to it, but the Marlins have got that double-play combo down.

By the way, I write about baseball for a living and yet I feel quite sure that if you had asked me, “Who is the manager of the Marlins?” I would not have been able to come up with Clayton McCullough even with a thousand guesses. I suppose if you had said, “His first name is the last name of one of The Marks Brothers Dolphins receivers and his last name is the same as one of the greatest American historians of our time,” then I MIGHT have gotten it on my 997th guess.

I do not say this proudly, by the way. I should know the name of the Marlins’ manager, especially now that Miami seems like a potential threat. Heck, if the Marlins keep this going, Clayton McCullough will be the NL manager of the year.

No. 7: Ugh

Just went to the Minnesota Twins Baseball-Reference page to check out the latest numbers for one of my all-time faves, Byron Buxton.

And I saw this familiar and sad parenthetical:

No. 8: Who’s Playing in the All-Star Game?

I have no idea. I have to admit, I kind of shut out All-Star Game talk this year. I’ve seen several “This guy’s gonna rest,” and “this guy’s mad he wasn’t selected,” and “this guy’s feeling a bit of an arm twinge” stories, but they’ve made no impact on me. I will, of course, watch the All-Star Game — and the Home Run Derby tonight — but I don’t feel any excitement about it. I wish I did. I’m not saying there’s anybody to blame. I just don’t think the idea works in 2026. I wish MLB would make a bunch of bold changes. But that’s not really the league’s priority.

The league’s priority, alas, seems to be paying the players less and getting more gambling money.

No. 9: Los Angeles’ Mookie Betts

This one — which comes to us from Molly Knight — will hit a few of you hard.

Mookie Betts has now played more games with the Los Angeles Dodgers (797) than he played with the Boston Red Sox (794).

No. 10: The Power of One Player

One of the themes of FIFTY SEASONS, as you might imagine, is that there’s only so much one baseball player can do. One football player (a quarterback in particular), one basketball player, one hockey player (especially if he’s a hot goalie) can alter the entire trajectory of a team. That’s so much harder to do in baseball.

I bring this up because there’s a very good chance that Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in the American League and a very good chance the Kansas City Royals will be the worst team in the American League.

That doesn’t seem right, does it? Witt is a brilliant defensive shortstop who does everything at the plate — hit, hit for power, steal bases, he does it all. And yet the Royals have the second-worst run-differential in the game, ahead only of the Sacramento A’s (who have their own wasted superstar in Nick Kurtz).

That’s the game, though. That’s also life. The only thing Bobby Witt or any of us can do is go out there every day and do the best we can and hope that the winds change somehow.