Raffy's Fastball Problem

This is a daunting chart:

Those are the players with the most swings and misses on fastballs so far in 2025. Interesting list. It’s frustrating to see Julio Rodriguez on there, sure, but this just seems to be his thing — he tends to get off to sluggish starts.

• 2025 (so far): .677 OPS, 28 Ks in 25 games

• 2024 April: .660 OPS, 40 Ks in 29 games

• 2023 April: .721 OPS, 34 Ks in 27 games

• 2022 April: .544 OPS, 30 Ks in 20 games

So that’s just kind of what he does. He’ll got hot later, surely.

But then you look at Rafael Devers. He isn’t just swinging and missing more on fastballs than anybody else, he’s doing it A LOT more than anyone else. I mean, he has 22 more swings and misses than Kyle Stowers and 31 more than the aforementioned Julio. That’s in his own class.

And the thing is: Devers has not been a strikeout machine in his career. He also has shown no history in his career of getting off to slow starts.

I’ve talked quite a bit about the mental toll it probably took on him when the Red Sox:

• Spent big money to get third baseman Alex Bregman

• Made Devers him a full-time DH against his will.

I know people say, “Hey, suck it up, you get paid a lot of money, your job is to help the team,” and that’s all well and good, but athletes are proud, and confidence plays such a huge role in their success, and right now pitchers are just throwing fastballs by one of the best hitters in the game.

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