NFL Preview: The NFC

Breaking down the conference, team by team, quarterback by quarterback.

Time now for our NFC preview—you’ll remember we’re predicting records and division winners based entirely on the team’s quarterback situation. This worked out pretty well in the AFC because by my rankings, the top four quarterbacks in the NFL all play in the AFC:

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs*

2. Josh Allen, Bills

3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens

4. Joe Burrow, Bengals

And it so happens that they probably represent the top four teams in the conference. If Aaron Rodgers plays at that top-four level, the Jets will be a playoff/Super Bowl contender. If Tua Tagovailoa plays at that top-four level, the Dolphins should be a threat. If Justin Herbert plays at that top-four level, well, you get the picture. I think my system worked well in the AFC.

*I have been asked to report to the masses that my wife, Margo, and our oldest daughter, Elizabeth, have claimed Kansas City Chiefs rookie receiver Xavier Worthy as their own; they would like to be the co-chairs of the Xavier Worthy Superfan Club. I alerted them both that after Worthy’s electrifying two-touchdown game on Thursday night, there are probably 15 million fantasy football owner who would argue that they were there first, but Margo and Elizabeth claim dibs.

Now, the NFC. But first, a quick reminder: This weekend is your last chance to get 25% off from Barnes and Noble on WHY WE LOVE FOOTBALL (11 days from kickoff!). All you have to do is enter the code FOOTBALL25 at checkout.

NFC East

No. 1: Dallas Cowboys (11-6)
Quarterback: Dak Prescott (No. 5 overall)

Before getting into Dak, let me make one other point: I hate, hate, hate that the NFL schedule is 17 games long. It’s stupid and absurd, and I grimace every single time I put down one of these predicted records. I mean, there’s the obvious greed issue; to add another game to the physical toll on these players for the extra hundred million dollars or whatever is brutal.

But I’m also talking simple numbers. 11-6 is not a record. It should be 11-5 or 12-4, something that looks like a complete season. Normally, the NFL makes radical changes and within five minutes we basically grow used to them—oh, so that’s what kickoffs look like now? OK. That’s fine.* To complete a catch you have to hold on to the football for 12 days? Whatever. Football fans roll with whatever comes. But the 17-game schedule, I’m never getting used to that. (It’ll probably be 18 games soon enough, but that’s not really much better.)

*I will say, though, that the new kickoff rule probably won’t work the way the NFL wants. They seem to want more kickoff returns, but if Thursday’s game was a glimpse into the future, the Chiefs happily gave up the extra five yards and just kicked the ball into the end zone. I suspect most teams will still do that. Honestly, they’d probably have to put touchbacks at the 40-yard line to really get teams to change their ways on this one.

OK, back to Dak. He was absolutely fantastic all last season, like MVP-quality fantastic. Then he laid a big ol’ egg in the playoff game at home against Green Bay—“I sucked,” was his succinct summary of the day—and, fair or unfair, it remains an open question if he’s the guy to lead the Cowboys out of their 30-year doldrums. I’m a believer, still, especially with the way he so perfectly syncs up with the electrifying CeeDee Lamb.

No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Quarterback: Jalen Hurts (No. 6 overall)

First of all, “Jalen Hurts” is the perfect quarterback name, right? There’s this great rhythm to the name, plus it’s the right answer to reporter questions after any game:

Reporter: “How do you feel?”
Hurts: “Jalen hurts.”

Hurts wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as he was in his near-MVP season of 2022—he threw more interceptions, his rushing yards were down, he lost more fumbles than at any point in his career—and there were rumors that he just wasn’t healthy all year long (“Jalen hurts!”). There was also some tension between him and the coaching staff. Word is that tension has been relieved, and Hurts is healthy, and, if that’s so, he’s a Lamar-Josh-level double-threat as a passer and runner.

No. 3: Washington Commanders (6-11)
Quarterback: Jayden Daniels (No. 20 overall?)

There’s obviously no way to rank Jayden Daniels just yet—he hasn’t played an NFL game. I’ve ranked him low just because there’s so much pressure on him—too much pressure for a first-year guy, I think.

But I’ll say this: He sure has a history of rising to the moment. As he says, there was incredible pressure on him at LSU when he followed Joe Burrow, and all he did in his Heisman Trophy-winning year was complete 73% of his passes, post an even higher quarterback rating than Burrow in his Heisman year, PLUS run for more than 1,000 yards.

New ownership and management are trying to detoxify the Commanders, and you can honestly say that with Daniels at quarterback and Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, the Commanders will at least be interesting for the first time in a long time.

Daniels ushers in a new era in Washington. (Rich Storry/Getty Images)

No. 4: New York Giants (4-13)
Quarterback: Daniel Jones? (No. 30 overall)

I so want this ranking to be wrong. Daniel Jones played football at Charlotte Latin High, about five miles from our house. He was Mr. Everything at Latin, like the pure ideal of the All-American kid, a brilliant quarterback (though virtually unrecruited), a brilliant student, he was heading to Princeton when he decided instead to walk on at Duke.

Then he put up super-good numbers at Duke—so good that the Giants took him with the sixth pick in the draft, and he won his first two games, and it looked like he just might take New York.

Alas, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. The Giants have not helped him at all, obviously, but we have watched him go from a pretty bold passer to a pretty timid quarterback who last year seemed to hold on to the ball too long and never looked confident. Then again, he did play in only seven games because of an ACL injury. The Giants did draft electrifying receiver Malik Nabers, and the offensive line looks to be pretty good, and Jones has, at times, played at a very high level. Here’s hoping.

NFC North

No. 1: Green Bay Packers (10-7)
Quarterback: Jordan Love (No. 11 overall)

Man, how do they do it in Green Bay? You know how the Steelers have had three coaches since 1969—a statistic so staggering it defies belief? Well, the Packers have basically had three quarterbacks since 1992, which is 32 years ago.

I say “basically” because their leading passers over the least 32 seasons have been:

1. Brett Favre (16 seasons)

2. Aaron Rodgers (14 seasons)

3. Jordan Love (1 season)

Quick math will tell you that still leaves open one season—that was 2017, when Rodgers played only seven games because of injury, and the team’s leading passer that year was… well, Packers fans right now are all shouting “Brett Hundley,” because, yeah, I’m sure they haven’t forgotten that season.

Anyway, it’s basically Favre-Rodgers-Love, and I will admit that I was pretty skeptical about Love being another potential Packers great, especially after watching him a couple times early in the 2023 season. But, wow, was he fantastic in the second half of the year, he stood strong in the pocket, he threw the ball downfield with authority, he finished second in the NFL in touchdown passes, he sure looked like the real deal.

No. 2: Detroit Lions (10-7)
Quarterback: Jared Goff (No. 13 overall)

Here’s how underrated I think Jared Goff is: I’m totally sure I underrated him here. All the guy does is hit 67-or-so percent of his passes, toss 30 touchdowns, get rid of the ball quickly… and his teams win games. Take away his first seven starts (all losses) and his rough first year in Detroit, and his teams have gone 63-33, and that includes the Lions’ first 12-win season since Barry Sanders was a 23-year-old whirlwind.

The Lions did a lot of work this offseason to shore up their astonishingly leaky defense—among teams that won 12 games in a season, the Lions gave up the fourth-most points. I thought you’d get a kick out of that list:

Most points allowed in a season while winning 12-plus games:

1. 2022 Vikings, 427 points

2. 2018 Chiefs, 421 points

3. 2013 Broncos, 399 points

4. 2023 Lions, 395 points

The way it ended for each of those four teams is pretty telling:

• 2022 Vikings lost to the Giants 31-24 in wild-card game.

• 2018 Chiefs lost to the Patriots 37-31 in AFC Championship Game.

• 2013 Broncos lost to the Seahawks 43-8 in Super Bowl.

• 2023 Lions lost to the 49ers 34-31 in NFC Championship Game.

Sooner or later, that defense will get you.

No. 3: Chicago Bears (9-8)
Quarterback: Caleb Williams (No. 17 overall)

Yeah, I’m pumped. I fairly often think about that moment in “The Wizard of Oz” when Dorothy’s house crashes in Munchkinland, and everything goes from black and white to this really vivid color—that still has a wonderful impact, but could you even imagine what that was like in 1939, when color movies were still a pretty new thing? That must have felt like a miracle to people in the theaters.

That’s what I want from Caleb Williams. I know, it’s a lot to ask from anyone, especially a rookie, but it has been black-and-white football in Chicago for like 75 years—all of those Trubiskies and Concanons and Kramers and Cutlers and Millers and McNowns and Harbaughs—and now you’ve got this Beyoncé of a quarterback, this guy capable of making even Patrick Mahomes gasp, and I’m all for it.

Of course, it doesn’t have to work out. Bears fans have had their hopes of getting an actual superstar quarterback dashed too many times to count, but Williams has already performed all sorts of miracles, and the way Bears players talk about him reminds me so much of the way Chiefs players talked about Mahomes before he ever took a snap.

Can Williams make the Bears… fun to watch? (Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

No. 4: Minnesota Vikings (4-13)
Quarterback: Sam Darnold (No. 32 overall)

Ugh, that J.J. McCarthy season-ending injury was just heartbreaking… and it leaves the Vikings with Darnold, now on his fourth team in five years. I mean, anything’s possible—Darnold was the third pick in the 2018 draft (Jets fans might have preferred Josh Allen there)—and he has had various bright moments. Maybe, given the chance, he’ll have a Baker Mayfield-like resurgence.

But, realistically, he was only supposed to hold things together until McCarthy was ready for prime time, and now it’s his team, with Nick Mullens backing him up, and that doesn’t seem all that promising.

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NFC South

No. 1: Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (No. 15 overall)

Well, somebody has to win the NFC South, and the Falcons seem to have put themselves in the best position to do so by picking up Cousins, who feels to me one of the most underrated quarterbacks in NFL history.

Here’s what I mean. Take a look at these two longtime quarterbacks:

Quarterback 1: 64.9% completion, 2.6% interception, 5.2% touchdown, 95.2 rating
Quarterback 2: 66.9% completion, 2.1% interception, 5.2% touchdown, 98.2 rating

I can tell you that neither quarterback led his team to a Super Bowl, their win percentages were close (Quarterback 1 has a 2-point edge), they each played in a bunch of Pro Bowls.

Quarterback 2, you probably already guessed, is Kirk Cousins.

Quarterback 1 is Philip Rivers, who people keep telling me will be going to the Hall of Fame.

Now, Rivers played a lot longer than Cousins and put up much bigger raw numbers… but the point is that Cousins has essentially been a Philip Rivers-level quarterback. If he can play at that level for the Falcons, I think they run away with this dreadful division. There’s a question, of course, if he can play at that level at age 36 and coming off a torn Achilles. But based on his work ethic, I’d bet on him.

Bet against Cousins at your own risk. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

No. 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (No. 21 overall)

Look, I miss him as quarterback of the Browns. He was frustrating and wonderful and dreadful and funny and consistently interesting. I mean, yes, you want your team to win, that’s always tops on the fan want list, but it’s also nice when your team is interesting.

Mayfield was all over the place in Tampa Bay last year—some weeks singlehandedly lifting the Bucs to victory, other weeks floundering about; it’s sort of the deal with Baker. The Bucs doubled down, signing him to a three-year deal, and it will be a wild ride.

No. 3: New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Quarterback: Derek Carr (No. 26 overall)

The ranking’s probably too low, but I’ve come to think of Carr as kind of a more boring version of Mayfield. He’ll probably hit a higher percentage of his passes and throw fewer interceptions, but he doesn’t seem to have that killer instinct that you want in a quarterback. Anyway, that’s how it feels to me. Here’s a completely unfair comparison, but I’ll make it anyway:

If the Bucs are down four with the ball and a minute left, I’ll predict the game to end with a spectacular Mayfield touchdown pass or the most horrifying “How did he not see the defender?” interception you ever saw.

If the Saints are down four with the ball and a minute left, I’ll predict the game to end at the other team’s 9-yard line as the clock runs out and Carr fails to get off one more play.

No. 4: Carolina Panthers (3-14)
Quarterback: Bryce Young (No. 28 overall)

It is wrong to write off Young after only one season, especially considering that season was as dysfunctional as any in memory? The Panthers have a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, a couple new offensive linemen and some new receivers, and the hope is that Young is the guy they hoped he would be when they took him No. 1 overall ahead of, among others, C.J. Stroud.

But, being brutally honest, Young almost never looked like that guy last year. I mean, even in a lost season, you want to see at least occasional flashes of brilliance, and there were hardly any. The knock on Young from some coming in was that he was too small and lacked the strength to be an elite quarterback. All last year he looked too small and not strong enough to be an elite quarterback.

Then again, what’s a guy supposed to do when every play is a jailbreak and you don’t have any weapons around you? There are stories of players who struggle their first year or two and then develop into top-level guys—I mean, Josh Allen certainly had his early troubles. Then again, Josh Allen is about four feet taller than Young, weighs like 200 more pounds and is somehow still faster. One thing I feel sure about is that with David Tepper as the owner, the Panthers will totally give up on Young if he doesn’t turn it way up this season.

NFC West

No. 1: San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Quarterback: Brock Purdy (No. 7 overall)

Certain quarterbacks are just perfect for their teams. I mean, Patrick Mahomes would be Patrick Mahomes anywhere he played, I’m sure, but he’s just perfect for Kansas City and the creative playmaking mind of Andy Reid.

Brock Purdy is the perfect 49ers quarterback. This team, top to bottom, is the most talented in football. Purdy’s as accurate as anybody in the NFL, he rarely makes bad decisions, but he’s also bolder than you think, he doesn’t take sacks, and he finds a way to share the ball enough to keep Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle happy.

People will always doubt him because his arm is meh and he’s not a running threat and he’s not very big and he was the last pick in the 2022 draft.

You know what? The 49ers had another quarterback who was not a top draft pick he had a weak arm, a slight physique and he turned out pretty good.

No. 2: Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (No. 12 overall)

I wasn’t too happy with the way Stafford’s ranking came out—I think he’s definitely a top-10 quarterback. But he’s also turning 37 two days before Super Bowl Sunday, and his completion percentage was a bit down in 2023, and I just didn’t see any good way to put him ahead of any of the top 11.

Stafford’s arm remains a marvel. I would imagine the candidates for my list of the top 10 strongest arms I’ve ever seen would probably include these 15 in some order:

• Josh Allen

• Steve Bartkowski

• Terry Bradshaw

• John Elway

• Brett Favre

• Joe Flacco

• Jeff George

• Jim Hart

• Justin Herbert

• Patrick Mahomes

• Dan Marino

• Aaron Rodgers

• Matthew Stafford

• Michael Vick

• Doug Williams

Of that group, nobody seems to have more EASY power than Stafford. He barely even looks like he’s trying and the ball just jumps out of his hand.

No. 3: Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
Quarterback: Geno Smith (No. 18 overall)

You have to give it up for Geno Smith, whose career was written off for dead after his time with the Jets flopped, then again when he was a backup for the Giants, 49ers and Seahawks for four years. But these last two seasons, he’s been really good. I mean he was REALLY good in 2022, when he led the league in completion percentage and posted a 100.9 passer rating. He was not quite that good last year, but he led all NFL quarterbacks with five game-winning drives.

Does he do this all again in 2024? He’s got some receiver weapons to work with, but the Seahawks’ offensive line looks shaky, so he might be dodging defenders all year long.

Smith looks to continue his resurgence behind a shaky offensive line. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

No. 4: Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
Quarterback: Kyler Murray (No. 19 overall)

Before the ACL injury, Murray was one of the best and most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL. He lacked that explosiveness last year, but that’s to be expected, considering he was coming off that major injury, and considering that the Cardinals didn’t exactly surround him with a bevy of talent.

Yeah, I’m excited to see what he and Marvin Harrison Jr. can do.