NFL Preview: The AFC

Breaking down the conference, team by team, quarterback by quarterback.

In so many ways, WHY WE LOVE FOOTBALL—launching Sept. 17, less than two weeks away!—is simply me going back to the beginning. Yes, of course, baseball is my favorite sport to write about, because it’s a sports that revolves around storytelling and history and statistical splendor and nostalgia, all those things that appeal to writers.

But football was there first.

It was football that first inspired me to write, back when the very notion of “becoming a writer” was too fantastical to even contemplate. I think often about what I would have chosen had someone given me a multiple-choice quiz at age 16 with the simple question: “What do you think you will end up doing with your life?”

A. Second baseman in the big leagues

B. Accountant

C. Stand-up comedian

D. Writer

…I’m 100% certain that (D) would have been my last choice. I went to college to study accounting (though I didn’t then, nor now, know the basic difference between a credit and a debit). I had whiffed on even playing for my high school baseball team, but I had not yet given up the big-league dream. And while nobody I went to high school with would have thought so, I imagined myself being reasonably funny. It was pretty much the only positive thought I had about myself.

Writer? Not a chance. I couldn’t write. That wasn’t just my opinion. I never had a single teacher who thought I could write. And I loathed everything about writing. It was one of my least favorite things. The idea of a two-page paper on the innovation of the Incas or the difference between the earth’s layers would be enough to make my stomach hurt.

And yet, every day when classes dragged—which, for me, was simply, “every day”—I wrote football previews. I did this year-round. I wrote football previews in the fall, obviously, in the winter, then again in the spring. Every day. Team previews. Game previews. Playoff previews. Player preview lists. I’d just start writing about the time when the teacher put some sort of algebraic formula on the board, and when I next looked up the formula had been solved somehow. All I wanted in those days was for time to go by. Writing football previews made that time go by faster.

It does seem odd to me now that I never THOUGHT of that as writing. But I didn’t. Not at all. Writing was a serious endeavor that led to deathly boring stuff like “The Scarlet Letter” or “Beowulf,” and it required a level of comprehension and understanding that I so clearly lacked. But writing a list of the NFL’s best quarterbacks or breaking down the Cleveland Browns-Houston Oilers game or predicting who would win the grueling NFC East… football was so ingrained in me, so important to me, that emptying my NFL thoughts on paper felt like breathing.

It seems so natural now, looking back, to see how those NFL previews that I never let ANYBODY read led to my absurd 35-plus year sportswriting career. But it didn’t feel that way at the time. There was just this major disconnect in my mind. I didn’t know that someone could even become a sportswriter. And even when I figured that part out, I didn’t believe that I could become one. Those NFL previews—all, thankfully, lost to history—were just these dumb things I did because I couldn’t bear to watch the clock stand still in class.

And with that, let’s write up a little two-day NFL preview.

Day 1: Breaking down the AFC.

Day 2: Breaking down the NFC.

Here’s my not-so-hot take: The NFL is a quarterback league like it has never been before. That’s a funny thing to say, because quarterbacks used to do things that they don’t do much now—they used to call their own plays, they used to overrule coaches based on their own gut feelings, they used to fully define the kind of offense that their teams ran.

When Johnny Unitas threw a pass near the goal line in overtime of the 1958 NFL Championship Game—this when the Colts were already well within game-winning-field-goal-range—the press approached Unitas himself to ask what makes him such a gambler. Everybody knew: It was his decision and his decision alone.

Fifty-seven years later, when the Seattle Seahawks were near the goal line with a chance to win the Super Bowl, and Russell Wilson unexpectedly dropped back to throw and fired an interception, the press hounded coach Pete Carroll (and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell). Everybody knew: It was the coach’s decision alone.

So, in various ways, the quarterback’s role has been pretty wildly diminished.*

*If I had to pinpoint a single moment when the quarterback’s role was so clearly defined—and I DO have to pinpoint such moments, since I wrote a book called WHY WE LOVE FOOTBALL—I would say that it all came to a head on Nov. 19, 1978, when Giants offensive coordinator Bob Gibson called a running play with his team leading 17-12 in the fourth quarter and the clock ticking down to zero.

The Giants’ second-year quarterback, a guy named Joe Pisarcik, didn’t want to run that play. Nobody in his huddle wanted to run the play, not even the guy the play was designed for, Larry Csonka. But by 1978, the offensive coordinator’s word was becoming law, except for the most elite of quarterbacks. So Pisarcik called the play.

He then collided with Csonka, fumbled the ball away, Philadelphia Herm Edwards scooped it up and ran for the game-winning touchdown.

And yet, I’d say that, overall, the quarterback matters more now than ever before. I have a theory about this: I think the NFL, though years and years of hard work, has done a better job than any other sport of creating parity. Every team in the NFL—with the possible exception of the Carolina Panthers—has enough all-around talent to compete most weeks. Even the Panthers, who finished 2-15, lost five one-score games in 2023. The 4-13 Patriots lost seven one-score games. Because of the draft and the salary cap and a relentless 30-year effort to even things out, the NFL’s talent does seem better-spread-out than any other U.S. team sport.

But there’s nothing the NFL can do to even out the quarterback difference.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been to four of the last five Super Bowls, and won three of them, because they have Patrick Mahomes, who I believe is better at playing quarterback than anyone. It’s that simple. I don’t think there are many people out there who believe that if you had replaced Mahomes with a league-average quarterback—say, a Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield or somebody like that—the Chiefs would have even made the playoffs in all of those years, and certainly they would not have won Super Bowls.

Obviously, the quarterback isn’t EVERYTHING. But I really do think that the quarterback is closer to “everything” than ever before… and based on how desperately NFL teams are drafting quarterbacks—six of the top 12 picks in 2024, three of the top four picks in 2023, top three picks in 2021—I’m not the only one who feels that way.

So, here’s what we’re going to do—we’re going to give you predictions for all eight divisions in the NFL, with projected records for each team… but we’re basing our predictions entirely on their quarterback situation, by ranking the QBs 1-30. Let’s see how close we can get doing it that way.

AFC East

No. 1: Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Quarterback: Josh Allen (No. 2 overall)

Here’s a great example of how this ranking might look different from some other people’s rankings—the Bills most definitely took some hits in the offseason. Most famously, they lost Stefon Diggs, who was far and away Josh Allen’s biggest weapon. They also lost Big Game Gabe Davis, who caught 27 touchdown passes over the last four years. And they got hurt on defense.

But Josh Allen is still, unquestionably, the most electrifying quarterback in the division. And so the Bills are still my pick to win it. It will be fascinating to see how they adjust their offense without Diggs and Davis: Will Sean McDermott ask Allen to temper some of his downfield throwing aggressiveness? Is that even a good idea?

No. 2: New York Jets (10-7)
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (No. 10 overall?)

Yeah, the question mark is necessary. I don’t know. You don’t know, either. Heck, Aaron Rodgers probably doesn’t know. He could be a top-five quarterback for sure. He could get hurt on his first snap again. He’s turning 41 in December. He has thrown one NFL pass since January 2023. And when we last saw him, 18 or so months ago, he was not the same legend he’d been; his 91.1 passer rating in 2023 was the lowest of his career.

But I’m putting him and the Jets at No. 2 in the division, because there is precedent here. When Peyton Manning went to Denver after missing an entire season with a neck injury, there seemed no way that he could succeed: At age 37, he put up the single greatest passing season in NFL history—his 5,477 yards and 55 touchdown passes that year remain the all-time record.

And, of course, we all know about Tom Brady at 43 going to Tampa Bay when it looked like he was diminished—and he led the Bucs to the Super Bowl.

So, it certainly could happen for Rodgers. By all accounts, he looked awfully good in preseason, the Jets have a stout defense—and, honestly, the Jets offense was SO BAD last year (only the Patriots, Giants and Panthers scored fewer points) that even a badly diminished Rodgers still gives this team a better shot at winning. I wouldn’t say I’m buying into the Super Bowl hype. But good things might happen here.*

*And then, I’m reminded by my friend and Jets fan Ron, “Um, they’re still the Jets.”

We’ll soon find out what, if anything, Rodgers has left. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

No. 3: Miami Dolphins (9-8)
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa (No. 14 overall)

I honestly don’t know what to make of Tua. There are times, when things are clicking, when the weather’s good, when he has time to throw, that he’s just about the most fun quarterback in the NFL to watch. There’s something special about a left-handed quarterback, anyway, and when he’s got it rolling, and Tyreek Hill is blazing by everybody and Raheem Mostert is blasting into the end zone, whew, it’s like the Showtime Lakers.*

*This is undoubtedly about nostalgia and getting older, but, for me, nothing in sports has ever reached the excitement and thrilled anticipation of those Showtime Lakers. Kareem grabbing the rebound and getting the ball to Magic on the run, Worthy sprinting down one sideline, Wilkes sprinting down the other, I still feel the heart pumping just thinking about it.

The trouble is that there other times when Tua just seems… lost. It’s kind of inexplicable, really.

No. 4: New England Patriots (5-12)
Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett and/or Drake Maye (No. 27 overall)

I like Jacoby Brissett. I mean, he’s not an elite quarterback, but I thought, in 2022, he played his heart out while the Browns waited for Deshaun Watson to get reinstated by the NFL—anyway, he was a hell of a lot more fun to root for than Watson.

He’s again in the role of keeping the seat warm—this time until Drake Maye is ready to go. Drake Maye makes me feel very old. When I was in high school at East Mecklenburg, Drake’s father, Mark Maye, was the star quarterback at rival Myers Park. (I don’t guess East Meck was good enough to be Myers’ Park rival then, but, I mean, we had to have one.) Then, when I went to North Carolina- Charlotte, Mark Maye was the star quarterback at rival North Carolina-Chapel Hill. (I don’t guess we were really rivals, since Charlotte didn’t even have a football team then, but still…)

Point being, it does not seem possible that Mark Maye has a son who is 22 years old and playing in the NFL.

And then I realize that Drake Maye is actually (and exactly) one year YOUNGER than our oldest daughter, Elizabeth.

Like I say, Drake Maye makes me feel very old.

AFC North

No. 1: Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (No. 3 overall)

Here are the quarterbacks who have won multiple NFL MVP awards:

• Peyton Manning (5)

• Aaron Rodgers (4)

• Tom Brady (3)

• Brett Favre (3)

• Johnny Unitas (3)

• Lamar Jackson (2)

• Patrick Mahomes (2)

• Joe Montana (2)

• Kurt Warner (2)

• Steve Young (2)

So, that’s pretty good company for Lamar… but (and you can’t really talk about him without saying this) LJ is the only one of the group to not have a postseason run—or really anything close to a postseason run. He has unquestionably and undeniably struggled in his six postseason games, and the question remains: Is that just a small-sample-size thing, or do the best teams know how to defend him in the key moments?

You know what’s most striking about Jackson’s postseason woes? He has been sacked a total of 26 times in those six games. That’s crazy—that’s more than four sacks per game. Is he overthinking things? There’s a freewheeling power that comes through when Jackson plays, and it hasn’t come through in the postseason.

One other thought: Jackson was utterly deserving of the MVP award both years he won it, absolutely. He had fantastic seasons. He’s so dangerous as a passer and a runner; we haven’t ever seen anyone exactly like him.

At the same time, those awards felt to me a lot like when the writers insisted on giving Charles Barkley and Karl Malone the MVP awards over Michael Jordan. I mean, yeah, sure, you could look at the stats just so and maybe squint and see a reason to pick them as MVP… but, come on. Is there anybody on earth at any point who believes that Lamar Jackson is more valuable to his team than Patrick Mahomes?

Jackson’s legacy lacks a deep playoff run. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

No. 2: Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
Quarterback: Joe Burrow (No. 4 overall)

If Burrow is healthy, I might rank him ahead of Lamar Jackson. Burrow can’t do all the Houdini-things that LJ can do, but, as a pure passer, he’s about as good as it gets. Mahomes makes more amazing plays, Jackson and Allen can do things physically that bend the brain, but I would say that no quarterback since maybe Manning at his best has made more “How in the world did he make that throw?” throws than Joe Burrow.

The key word, though, is “healthy.” Burrow has taken a beating since becoming the Bengals quarterback—in their Super Bowl year of 2021, he was sacked more than any quarterback in the league—and last year he never really did get healthy.

No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Quarterback: Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields (No. 22 overall)

This is admittedly a wild guess—and it might come from the countless hours of pain that the Pittsburgh Steelers have cause me and my Cleveland Browns heart—but I kind of have this feeling that Wilson will have a big comeback season in Pittsburgh. And, yes, I’ll admit the preseason competition between Wilson and Fields was kind of a mess and not the sort of thing that usually leads to success. Quarterback controversies almost always take teams down drains, and coach Mike Tomlin almost seemed to be RELISHING the idea of having a quarterback controversy.

Still, Wilson can still throw the deep ball, if you give him time, and he’s still a wizard at play action, and, I don’t know, I can just see him leading the Steelers to surprising win after surprising win.

No. 4: Cleveland Browns (7-10)
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (No. 23 overall)

I’ve certainly never hidden my disdain for the Cleveland Browns’ decision to sell the team’s soul and about 11 million future draft picks to bring in an about-to-be-suspended Deshaun Watson. It was the most openly cynical move I can remember a football team making… and when you’re talking about the NFL, that is really saying something.

But what I didn’t talk about enough, I think, was this gnawing feeling that this could potentially be a disastrous FOOTBALL move. Watson put up good numbers from 2018 to 2020, no question, and he put up GREAT numbers in 2020—his 112.4 passer rating that year ranks 16th all-time.

I’m skeptical about that 2020 season, though. He did it for a terrible Houston team during a pandemic season in an indoor stadium. And even if you buy entirely into his great numbers, well, he sat out the entire 2021 season while dealing with his legal issues, and everybody knew he would be suspended for most of the 2022 season. It was quite a leap of faith to believe that he would be the same quarterback on the other side of all that.

He’s not the same quarterback, even when he can get on the field, which isn’t often. We always have to put a caveat on that, because every now and again he will display some flash of awesomeness, and the “I told you so’s!” will cascade down from his fans, and then he will say something so confidently—“No doubt!” he told reporters this week when asked if he’s still a great quarterback—that you think: “Maybe this guy knows something.”

And then you remember he didn’t play all preseason because of arm soreness or something, and he has mostly looked dreadful when he has played the last two seasons. I could very well be under-ranking him, and the Browns defense could very well be dominant again. I honestly don’t think Deshaun Watson is good enough to take them anywhere, and I think the Browns will be saddled with his horrendous contract and billion-dollar buyout for the foreseeable future.

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AFC South

No. 1: Houston Texans (11-6)
Quarterback: C.J. Stroud (No. 8 overall)

I live in Charlotte, and while I don’t follow the Panthers much, I hear enough around town to know that most people here are quite sure that this team has absolutely no idea what it’s doing. I suppose that’s how many NFL fans feel about their team, but Charlotte fans probably have it more right than most.

And that’s why I’m fairly convinced that while good people working for the Panthers must have done a lot of hard analysis leading into the 2023 draft, I think they took Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud simply because previous Ohio State quarterbacks—guys like Dwayne Haskins, Terrelle Pryor, Justin Fields, Troy Smith, heck, going all the way back to Art Schlichter—have been mega-disappointments.

That’s not a great reason to pass on a guy, if we’re being honest. Stroud is bigger, stronger and probably faster than Young, and he was so good as a rookie, so confident, so much in command, that I suspect nobody in the Panthers’ scouting department is sleeping all that well.

No. 2: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence (No. 16 overall)

Let me concede, right up front, that I’m probably under-ranking Lawrence here. I’ve never quite gotten into the Lawrence hype… and the reason is absolutely ridiculous: Every time I see him, I think of Steve Taneyhill. Gamecocks fans will, of course, remember Taneyhill—he was a cocky, long-haired quarterback who set all sorts of South Carolina passing records when I was writing about the team in the early- to mid-1990s. He actually led the team to its first bowl victory ever, which insanely was not until 1995. South Carolina football is its own thing.

Anyway, I remember thinking, “Hey, maybe Taneyhill will play in the NFL!” He didn’t even get drafted. I think he’s a successful bar owner around Columbia now.

Anyway, even though I know it’s entirely wrong, I can’t get it out of my head that Lawrence is just kind of Steve Taneyhill 2.0. He doesn’t deserve that, and now that the Jaguars have given him some receiving weapons—Brian Thomas Jr. and Big Game Gabe Davis—he will probably blow up the NFL, and be a top-10 quarterback, and I’ll have to admit my own illogical biases.

Will some new weapons help Lawrence take a step forward? (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

No. 3: Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (No. 24)

How about this stat: Richardson will become the first Colts quarterback since Andrew Luck to start back-to-back season openers.

2017: Scott Tolzien
2018: Andrew Luck
2019: Jacoby Brissett
2020: Gardner Minshew II
2021: Carson Wentz
2022: Matt Ryan

That’s a journey, isn’t it? Richardson started his first game right away after being the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, but he never really got going—he suffered a concussion and a shoulder sprain and only played in parts of four games. He did flash some talent in his brief time, and he has impressed a lot of people this preseason with his maturity and development, and, honestly, I’d rather go into the season with him at quarterback than Deshaun Watson.

No. 4: Tennessee Titans (5-12)
Quarterback: Will Levis (No. 25 overall)

Levis seems like a lot of fun—he’s got a Brett-Favre, he’s-like-a-kid-out-there vibe going, without the whole defrauding of the Mississippi welfare system part weighing him down. Unfortunately, it does look like he will have the Tennessee Titans offensive line weighing him down, so that will make for a pretty significant challenge.

AFC West

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes (No. 1 overall)

I’d like for the committee to consider breaking apart the idea of the GOAT and the BEST EVER. I’m happy enough for Tom Brady to be the GOAT. He deserves that for all the championships, all the big performances in all the big games; I don’t think we’ll ever see anyone quite match his level of dominance.

And I also think that Patrick Mahomes is the BEST EVER.

I realize that distinction is difficult to put into words. It’s like I consider GOAT to be an honorary title, a relatively permanent one, for someone who takes the game to another place. Like, I think you could actually argue that Johnny Unitas is the GOAT because he more or less created the modern quarterback position, or maybe Joe Montana is the GOAT for that very reason. But I’m content with giving Brady that title.

I still think Patrick Mahomes plays quarterback better than anyone ever.

Maybe this little chart will better explain what I mean:

Golf
GOAT: Jack Nicklaus
BEST EVER: Tiger Woods

Tennis
GOAT: Roger Federer
BEST EVER: Novak Djokovic

Basketball
GOAT: Michael Jordan
BEST EVER: LeBron James

Baseball
GOAT: Babe Ruth
BEST EVER: Willie Mays
HIS OWN THING: Shohei Ohtani

No. 2: Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)
Quarterback: Justin Herbert (No. 9 overall)

I’m a touch lower on Herbert than most people, I suppose—Pro Football Focus ranks him as the No. 5 quarterback in football—and that’s not because I’m immune to being awed by his extraordinary arm or talent or numbers (he’s thrown for more yards in his first three seasons than any quarterback ever).

It’s just that, I don’t know, I’ve seen him play a bunch in those three seasons and it so often seems like when the key moment comes up, he doesn’t quite come through. Admittedly, a lot of this might be because he has been surrounded by some pretty meager talent. I’m probably not being fair.

I’m curious to see what he will do in a Jim Harbaugh system. I’m ready to have my mind changed.

Herbert has thrown for more yards in his first three years than any QB ever. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

No. 3: Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
Quarterback: Gardner Minshew? Aidan O’Connell? Ken Stabler? (No. 29 overall)

I guess the starting answer, as of right now, is Gardner Minshew who’s on his fourth team in six seasons. I figure at this point the guy has a 1-800-MINSHEW number that teams can easily call when they need a starter.

Minshew has an awesome mustache.

No. 4: Denver Broncos (4-13)
Quarterback: Bo Nix (No. 31 overall)

I don’t think anybody believes Bo Nix is quite ready to start in the NFL just yet—I mean, yes, it did seem like he played college football for 24 seasons, but, even so, it doesn’t seem right to just throw him out there a few months after playing Liberty in a bowl game. But the Broncos’ other options were Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, so Bo Nix it is!

Nix played in an extreme short-pass offense at Oregon—I saw one stat that showed almost 30% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage—so I imagine there will be a pretty significant learning curve here. And it doesn’t look like he will get a lot of help.

Next: Breaking down the NFC teams and quarterbacks.