March is the Time for Hope, Part II

Continuing our March is the Month of Hope series this week, we’re now looking at the middle-tier teams and their fans who feel sort of optimistic and sort of pessimistic coming into 2025. Just as a reminder, these fan Optimism scores are based on the thousands of JoeBlogs readers who filled out our survey.

No. 20: Minnesota Twins (Optimism score: 45.7)

The top projections I’ve seen — Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs and the like — have the Twins winning the American League Central. And yet, according to our survey, only Chicago White Sox fans in the Central feel less optimistic coming into 2025. In fact, as you will see, Detroit Tigers fans, Cleveland Guardians fans, and Kansas City Royals are all A LOT more optimistic about their teams going into 2025.

Maybe some of this is just Minnesotans being Minnesotans. This is, after all, the place where the women are strong, the men are good, and all the children are above average — the Minnesota folks I know and love are all “hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but, really, preparing for the worst is the priority” kind of people. Maybe that’s the Minnesota Vikings effect. Maybe that’s what comes from Minnesota winters.*

Whatever the reason, Twins fans do not seem to believe in this team, and that’s probably due to the fact that the team has done absolutely nothing to inspire belief. They’ve spent the last two off-seasons watching players go. Their television situation is a mess. The Pohlads announced they’re selling the team.

And yet… if Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton could just stay healthy, this is probably the best offense in the division.

And yet… if Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson can make 25 to 32 starts and Jhoan Durán. Griffin Jax and Cole Sands can pick up where they left off in the bullpen, this is probably the deepest pitching staff in the division. There’s a reason the rating systems have the Twins winning the AL Central. The ratings systems don’t live in Minnesota.

No. 19: Seattle Mariners (Optimism score: 47.8)

When I asked my pal Mike to write about The Double in Why We Love Baseball, I was hoping he would get to the core feeling of being a Mariners fan, of being a fan of the only team that has never appeared in the World Series. He did. He ended his essay with the above thought, and I love it. Sports is agony for all of us. And it’s especially so for Mariners fans.

Here’s the thing that strikes me about Seattle baseball the last, say, 30 years: Their all-star team over that stretch of time is as good or better than anybody’s. I mean, think about these players in their prime:

• C: Cal Raleigh

• 1B: John Olerud

• 2B: Robinson Canó

• SS: Alex Rodriguez

• 3B: Kyle Seager

• LF: Julio Rodriguez

• CF: Ken Griffey Jr.

• RF: Ichiro Suzuki

• DH: Edgar Martinez

• RHP: Félix Hernandez

• LHP: Randy Johnson

That’s an absurd collection of talent — for the most part, those aren’t just great players, they’re iconic players. Has any team in baseball had more iconic players than the Seattle Mariners over the last 30 years?

And for all that, the Mariners story repeats again and again — good but not good enough, rebuild, good but not good enough again, rebuild, good but not good enough again, wash, rinse, repeat. The Mariners were involved in a lot of rumors this offseason, but in the end, they did absolutely nothing to improve on their 85-win team from a year ago. They might improve anyway. Julio might have that MVP year. Late-season additions Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena might make a huge difference. Their five-man starting rotation seems as solid as any in the league. This could be the year. It always could be the year in Seattle.

No. 18: Cincinnati Reds (Optimism score: 50.8)

It seems pretty clear to me that three things are driving the cautious optimism of Reds fans — the electric Kool-Aid of Elly De La Cruz, the electric stuff of Hunter Greene, and the hiring of manager Terry Francona.

Take them one at a time. De La Cruz is coming off a bananas season where he led the league in strikeouts, stolen bases, caught stealing and errors. He scored 100 runs, smacked 81 extra-base hits, played in 160 games and finished eighth in the MVP voting. De La Cruz giveth, and De La Cruz taketh away, and you can’t take your eyes off of him for an instant.

Greene led the National League in bWAR, which probably says more about how Baseball Reference figures WAR than anything else (he was eighth in the league in Fangraphs WAR). But it was a fun year for one of the hardest throwers in the game. He struck out 169 batters in 150 innings, the league hit just .183 against him, and you get the sense the best is yet to come.

Then there’s Tito. He’s turning 66 in April, and he’s battled all sorts of health issues, but Reds fans, like everyone, saw the magic a 68-year-old Bruce Bochy pulled off with the Rangers in 2023, and, hey, why not Tito?

The wonderful thing about hope is that it doesn’t have to be logical; quite often, hope is the opposite of logic. The Reds have lots of flaws. Their lineup after De La Cruz and Matt McLain looks kind of frightening. The major projection systems see them battling Pittsburgh for last place. They do weird things like picking up Gavin Lux even though they have no place for him to play (assuming McLain is healthy). But when you have a shortstop who can fly, a pitcher who can deal and an old sage in the dugout, there’s always a chance.

No. 17: Boston Red Sox (Optimism score: 52.0)

Most of the people who filled out our optimism survey did so before the Red Sox picked up Alex Bregman, so I suspect that this score has gone up a bit.

Then again, Red Sox fans are famously pessimistic, right?

Next generation hope revolves around three kids who have taken very different paths to prodigyland. Twenty-two-year-old shortstop Marcelo Mayer was the fourth pick in the 2021 draft, and the Red Sox were both shocked and delighted that he fell to them — many had him going No. 1 overall to Pittsburgh (the Pirates, being the Pirates, took the more affordable Henry Davis instead; he signed for $2 million under slot value). Mayer has been turning heads at spring training and will probably be up at some point this year.

Twenty-year-old outfielder Roman Anthony was a second-round pick the next year, though that might have been because scouts expected him to go to play at Mississippi. The Red Sox paid him triple slot value to sign him, and he has blasted through the minor leagues and Keith Law says “he’s got a chance to be a 30-homer, high-average, high-OBP guy in right field, maybe with plus defense there, which is a ‘best player in the league’ profile.” He might start the year in the minors but he probably won’t be there long.

Twenty-two-year-old second baseman (or wherever they can find room for him) Kristian Campbell was a fourth-round pick out of Georgia Tech. Not a lot of people paid attention to him, perhaps because of his somewhat unconventional swing. Everybody knows him now — he skyrocketed through the minor leagues last year, hitting .330/.439/.558 at three levels on his way to being named Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. With the Red Sox’s weird situation at second base — will it be Bregman? Vaughn Grissom? Marty Barrett? — he could make the club on Opening Day.

The wonderful thing about having three of the best prospects in baseball is also the scary thing about having three of the best prospects in baseball — everything is possibility. You invest so many of your dreams and aspirations in brilliantly talented kids who have never faced a big-league fastball. They are Baseball America’s No. 2, No. 4 and No. 15 prospects. Looking back at some random years:

Baseball America 2018

• No. 2: Shohei Ohtani

• No. 4: Eloy Jimenez

• No. 15: Kyle Tucker

Baseball America 2014

• No. 2: Xander Bogaerts

• No. 4: Masahiro Tanaka

• No. 15: Addison Russell

Baseball America 2008

• No. 2: Evan Longoria

• No. 4: Clay Buchholz

• No. 15: Jack McGee

Baseball America 2002

• No. 2: Mark Prior

• No. 4: Sean Burroughs

• No. 15: Angel Berroa

Baseball America 1996

• No. 2: Paul Wilson

• No. 4: Darin Erstad

• No. 15: Bartolo Colon

Baseball America 1990

• No. 2: Ben McDonald

• No. 4: Juan Gonzalez

• No. 15: Robin Ventura

You can see everything there. You see legendary players, you see broken dreams, you see triumph and you see crushing anticlimax. The 2025 Red Sox actually have a bunch of established players who will determine this team’s fate. But the future of Boston baseball is an exciting mystery.

No. 16: Tampa Bay Rays (Optimism score: 52.4)

Rays fans have grown so used to seeing their team beat all expectations that I imagine this is their permanent optimism level — right in the middle of the pack. On the one hand, the Rays don’t have too many players to get excited about, and their projections are pretty meh on them. On the other hand, 21-year-old Junior Caminero is pounding the ball at spring training and Shane McClanahan looks healthy again and these guys always figure it out, right?

No. 15: San Diego Padres (Optimism score: 55.5)

Optimism levels from my friend Matt, probably the biggest Padres fan in the UK:

• Fun players and team: 83

• Chance for deep run: 49

• Farm system (Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries!): 87

• State of organization: 44

• Jackson Merrill factor: 111

• Broadcasting now that they’ve brought back Don Orsillo: Infinity

• Overall: 64

Optimism levels from my friend Justin Halpern, probably the most profane Padres fan.

• Fun players and team: Yeah, I’m probably where Matt is.

• Chance for deep run: I’d say 50. Which is to say I could see us winning 73 games or 87 and sneaking into the last wildcard spot. Injuries will dictate this.

• Farm system: I am way lower on the farm than Matt. Salas and De Vries are exciting but that’s all we have.

• Overall: For 87 wins, Fernando Tatis goes back to prime Fernando Tatis. Manny Machado is Manny Machado. Jackson Merrill takes a leap forward, Tirso Ornelas wins the left field platoon spot over Jason Heyward, and Nick Pivetta does a Seth Lugo/Michael Wacha*.

No. 14: Chicago Cubs (Optimism score: 56.0)

I’ve written about this before: Pal Brandon McCarthy was one of the few people in America rooting against the 2016 Chicago Cubs. He was not rooting against them because he dislikes the Cubs the way, perhaps, Cardinals and Brewers fans do. No, he likes the Cubs just fine.

No, he was rooting against them because he enjoyed the world where the Cubs were America’s lovable losers. His feeling was that when the Cubs won the World Series, they would lose what made them special. They would become just like every other team. The sports world — his sports world — would become just a little bit less colorful.*

And while it takes a bit of cruelty to wish bad things on a fan base that had suffered for more than 100 years, well, he wasn’t exactly wrong. The Cubs won that 2016 World Series. It’s one of the most beautiful moments in baseball history. Then they stuck around for a couple of years as a contender, though not a particularly serious contender. One by one, the heroes of 2016 — Javy, Bryant, Schwarbs, Rizzo, Lackey, Lester, Heyward, Arrieta — fell off, aged out, signed elsewhere.

And, now, what are the Chicago Cubs?

They are like every other team.

They brought in Kyle Tucker this offseason, so that’s exciting. An outfield of Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ can get the blood pumping a bit. They also dumped Cody Bellinger because they didn’t want to pay his salary, so that’s less exciting. They got reliever Ryan Pressly so that’s, you know, “exciting” might be a stretch, but “thought-provoking” might work. They have four starters in Shota Imanaga, Justin Steeler, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd who could be pretty good. So that’s, um, how about we go with “intriguing?”

The Cubs are the best National League Central team on paper going into the season — PECOTA, for example, has them WAY ahead of everybody else. I get more of a “Wait and see” vibe from Cubs fans, though. I think even now, almost a decade later, Cubs fans are still trying to understand exactly what this team is all about.

No. 13: Milwaukee Brewers (Optimism score: 63.7)

Here are the National League’s top five teams since 2010:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 1,377 wins, 4 pennants, 2 World Series

2. St. Louis Cardinals, 1,266 wins, 2 pennants, 1 World Series

3. Atlanta Braves, 1,260 wins, 1 pennant, 1 World Series

4. Milwaukee Brewers, 1,219 wins, 0 pennants.

5. San Francisco Giants, 1,197 wins, 3 pennants, 3 World Series

Brewers fans already know all this, of course. They’re good each and every year. Nobody ever expects it. Everybody always underrates them. Their payroll keeps sliding toward Cleveland and Pittsburgh. And, yep, they’re good every year, then they lose in the playoffs, and another year goes by, and everybody underrates them all over again. Second verse same as the first.

These Brewers once again leave the analysts and projection systems yawning. PECOTA projects 80 wins. Fangraphs sees 81. But Brewers fans seem pretty sure they’ll overperform just like always because Jackson Chourio will be better than everybody thinks, and Brice Turang will be better than everybody thinks, and they’ll surprise everybody by getting good innings out of Nestor Cortes and Jose Quintana, and Trevor Megill will end up being just as good as Devin Williams in the bullpen, and one or two of their five top 100 prospects will emerge. It happens every spring.

No. 11 (tie): Detroit Tigers (Optimism score: 64.5)

When I told a friend that I was doing this Optimism scale, he asked me which fan base was the most unrealistically optimistic. I told him, “I don’t know, but I’m pretty sure you’ll find the answer in the American League Central.”

If you’ve been following along, you now know that Guardians fans, Royals fans and Tigers fans are ALL among the top 11 most optimistic fan bases. I think the reason is obvious: The American League Central is the game’s most winnable division. Don’t believe me? Ask the dishes — here are the average wins needed to win each division since 2000:

I bolded it out for you… The American League Central has annually been the weakest division in baseball. It isn’t true EVERY year. But it’s true a lot of years. And this century, the American League Central champion has never had baseball’s best record. But someone in the Central has had baseball’s WORST record seven different times; every team in the division except Cleveland has had the worst record in baseball at least once this century.

Being in the American League Central is invigorating for fans. I don’t think you’d find too many people around baseball who think that the Tigers come into the season with as much talent as the Diamondbacks. Arizona is loaded; Detroit is not. But the Diamondbacks play in the division with the Dodgers, and the Tigers do not. So the fans’ Optimism scores are identical.

The Tigers’ remarkable finish in 2024 energized the city, and it was wonderful. Detroit is a great baseball town, and a ballgame at Comerica Park is one of the game’s truly underrated experiences, and everything about the Tigers’ September charge and playoff run felt terrific. I also have no idea if it is repeatable. After Riley Greene, this team’s best hitter might be Gleyber Torres. Maybe they will have enough pitching with the incredible Tarik Skubal, the solid Jack Flaherty and the emergence of top-three draft picks Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe. I’m not about to rain on the Detroit parade. It’s March. Get excited.

No. 11 (tie): Arizona Diamondbacks (Optimism score: 64.5)

Here’s something fun: Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers got a ridiculous 50-50 season from Shohei, standard 5-WAR seasons from Freddie and Mookie, 33 home runs from Teoscar and some pretty good contributions from Will Smith and Max Muncy.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outscored them by more than 40 runs.

The Diamondbacks outscored the Dodgers even though Corbin Carroll took four months to get going, even though Ketel Marte missed some time, etc. Yes, it’s true that the Diamondbacks play in a better hitters’ park than Los Angeles, but they hit everywhere. They hit more home runs on the road than any team in the league.

Now, some of that is gone — Christian Walker is gone. Joc Pederson is gone. Josh Naylor was brought in to make up some of that difference. But the point is that this is a seriously good offense, and can be even better if Carroll gets off to a good start. The Diamondbacks also added ace Corbin Burnes to a pretty decent rotation, and they’ve got triple-digit flamethrower Justin Martinez in the bullpen. They’re not the Dodgers, but they might just be the next best thing.

Video of the latest PosCast is now up on the ol’ YouTube Channel!