Woke up this fine morning thinking about league size.
Yeah, sometimes I just wake up thinking about league size. It’s a problem.
At some point in the next few years — assuming that MLB doesn’t just blow itself up, which is not necessarily a safe assumption, but let’s go with it — there will be 32 teams in baseball. I don’t know when, but at some point (I’d guess before Rob Manfred retires in January 2029), they will add two teams. Nashville and Salt Lake City seem like pretty heavy favorites at the moment among the folks I’m talking with. But, there are other cities in the mix — Montreal, Portland, Raleigh, San Antonio, maybe Charlotte.
Anyway, when the smoke finally clears, baseball will have 32 teams just like the NFL and NHL.
That’s a good number, 32. Sandy Koufax’s number. Jim Brown’s number. Magic Johnson’s number.
There’s a whole lot you can do with a 32-team league.
The question today is: What’s the best way for BASEBALL to structure a 32-team league?
Before we get there, though, let’s talk a little bit about baseball’s numerical history because it’s pretty odd.
What we’re talking about here is the numerical history of the American and National Leagues. When you start including other major leagues like the Negro Leagues and Frontier League — bring back the Brooklyn Tip Tops and Kansas City Packers and Pittsburgh Rebels! — the number of major league teams has fluctuated from 16 to 33.
But from the founding of the American League in 1901 until 1960, there were always 16 teams in MLB. That number stayed consistent. And that number was absolutely ideal for the long and winding baseball season. You had two eight-team leagues, those eight teams fought it out for 154 games over six months, and then the champion of each league played in the World Series. It was elegant, romantic, and wonderful.
But MLB couldn’t stay at 16 teams forever. For one thing, the country was growing rapidly. For another, the nation's appetites were changing.
In 1961, the American League added two teams. The next year, the National League did the same. MLB also added eight regular-season games to the schedule. So now MLB had a total of 20 teams — two 10-team leagues.
This was … not quite as elegant.
Meanwhile, in the world of football, things were changing drastically. A whole American Football League was founded (something almost impossible to happen in baseball because of MLB’s antitrust exemption), and that meant there were a bunch of playoff games and a big ol’ Championship Game people immediately started calling “The Super Bowl.” People loved it! Turns out Americans couldn’t get enough of these dopamine-rush winner-take-all events.
So in 1969, MLB entirely changed course. They added four teams — moving the number up to 24 teams — and divided each league into two six-team divisions. The champions of each division would play in a championship series.
Now, four teams would make the playoffs instead of two! Double the fun!
But MLB was still way behind the other sports in playoff buzz. By the mid-1970s, the NFL had 10 teams making the playoffs. The NHL had, I don’t know, 400? I’m pretty sure my father’s bowling team made the NHL playoffs at some point.
In 1977, the American League added two more expansion teams. Yeah, it was weird. For 17 years, there were 14 teams in the American League and only 12 in the National League, making it meaningfully more difficult to make the playoffs in the AL. That wasn’t ideal.
In 1993, the National League added two teams, bringing the total to 28.
In 1994, MLB divided each league into three (uneven) divisions and added a wildcard — now eight teams made the playoffs instead of four.
Double the fun again!
In 1998, MLB added two more expansion teams, bringing the league total to the 30 we still have today. Each league was divided into three divisions with five teams each. And for the last 25 years or so, MLB has been adding wildcard teams to the playoffs (these days, 12 teams make the playoffs), and constantly changing the number of games in each playoff series (we now have three-game series, five-game series, and seven-game series). The whole thing has turned into a mathematical calamity.
When baseball expands to 32 teams, there will be an opportunity to bring back some sanity and reason to the baseball season.
But here’s the question for you: How would you do it?
Would you follow the NHL’s formula — two leagues, two divisions of eight teams in each league, and build out the playoffs from there?
Or would you follow the NFL’s formula — four leagues, four divisions of four teams in each league, and build out the playoffs from there?
If MLB expands to 32 teams, what structure would you prefer?
Let me tell you what my ideal would be … and why it will never happen.
What I’d like to see is eight divisions, four teams each — but ONLY if the playoffs involve JUST THE EIGHT DIVISION WINNERS.
That makes sense to me. I think if the playoffs in each league (assuming we still have the American and National League) featured just the four division winners, that would make a lot of sense. It would give us real pennant races. It would make the long season feel somewhat worthwhile. It would add up.
Here’s the problem: There’s no way that MLB will go back to just eight playoff teams. This is a league that grabs for every dollar it can, no matter the long-term implications. MLB really isn’t making that much money on the wildcard round. It’s not like the NFL, where every extra playoff game is tens of millions of dollars. I mean, most of this year’s wildcard round will be shown on Peacock and NBC Sports Network — you think MLB is getting a lot of money for that?
They’re not. But they’re getting SOME money for that, and like I say, MLB is all about getting every dime it can RIGHT NOW. That’s why the word “Strauss” — a German workwear company — is plastered on every batting helmet. Next year, MLB might have a “PUT YOUR LOGO HERE” circle on every uniform with a QR code for you to scan.
So they’re not going back to only eight playoff teams.
Assuming they stay with 12 playoff teams — or, more likely, go up to 16 because, again, money — then I see no value in eight divisions at all. At that point, they should just go back to two divisions (to determine the two first-round byes), or even one, and just pick the teams with the best records. Yes, for me it’s ugly and antithetical to baseball’s history, but this seems to be the direction that MLB is going, and I think a lot of people would prefer the simplicity of it.
Anyway, I’m very curious to hear your perspective. This isn’t really about math or symmetry; it’s about what a baseball season should feel like. I’m very much on the record as someone who wants fewer playoff teams and more meaning in the regular season. Many others would like more chaos and a bigger October.
So let’s see what you think: I’ll write about the poll results in The Clubhouse later this week, and if you have some stuff you’d like to say, send it along here.
