Isn't the insane explosion in HR at AAA after switching to the same ball used in MLB enough of a smoking gun? That pretty much removes the change in weight training, etc., from the equation.
I'll be Mr. Contrary and say that I don't think the high HR rate is a big problem. But I don't think baseball has any really huge problems right now. Some things I think are bigger problems:
1. Pace of play is too slow.
2. Too many patches on uniforms and butt-ugly modifications for Mother's Day, Veteran's Day, etc.
3. I desperately want good official fielding stats. Errors are almost useless. There should be an official stat for good plays, and errors should be given out much more frequently.
4. Being able to sign non-Americans at age 16 (I think that's right) gives them a huge advantage in development, and is the main reason why Hispanics make up such a huge percentage of players now. Non-Americans should not have a competitive advantage over Americans.
5. Not enough stolen bases or triples.
6. Salaries are out of this world insane. I'd like to see baseball management implement a salary cap and give the money back to the fans.
The difference between deadening the ball and extending the fences is not nothing... Extending the fences makes for MORE action, not less. More chasing of the ball, more balls outfielders can't get to, but the ball still can get through the infield when sharply hit, as opposed to a dead ball turning some of those hits into outs (and/or allowing the IF to play slightly in and getting to more slow rollers). Extending the fences would also lead to the OF playing deeper, which would convert some line outs and flares to fall. Higher scoring in general would follow the fences out, but lower scoring would follow a duller ball.
True dat. But you can move most of the walls, raise some others, and (probably) back the plate up in most parks where the OF walls have nowhere to go. None of this, of course, affects the Ks directly but might make guys, at the margin, sacrifice so HRs for OBs.
Both dead balls and more difficult walls get to reducing home runs. The dead ball make outs easier to come by via non-strikeout means. Moving/changing walls doesn't, necessarily. Strikeouts are fascist.
Agreed. That is one thing I LIKE about moving the walls. If non-K outs are harder to come by, batters will hopefully take advantage of the space. Although, pitchers might focus even more on Ks so who knows what the actual trend would be. It all depends on what folks (including you and me) want- more scoring or less? longer game or shorter?
Increasing ballpark size and deadening the ball are essentially the same thing. Either would help today’s more boring game. Sorry, Joe, but three true outcomes suck to watch.
I think the ballpark size is a huge factor. You touched on it a little. But a fair number of those opposite field flare HRs are dropping into the first row of a fence 10 feet, or more, shorter than they were in the 80s into the 90s.
Yes,this! Players are stronger and bigger than ever with a greater pool of talent and what do these idiots in control do? Allow smaller ball parks with smaller foul territory and basically play with a Superball. Of course players are striking out or hitting HRs - it’s because they are swinging for the fences. Deaden the ball and players may not swing as hard and actually make non HR contact. Can anyone remember someone bunting?
What the "idiots" wanted were things that were fan-friendly. Big foul territory is fan-unfriendly because foul outs are big-time boring. Fans like HR's, and fans love outfielders leaping over the short wall to snag a HR ball.
I don't know which player is the most likely to bunt, but for some reason Dee Gordon came to mind. He has only 1 bunt hit in 2019, but had 8 in 2018 and 16 in 2017. I wonder how many total bunt hits there are this season.
Ah, here we go. There are 232 bunt hits in 2019. There were 441 in 2018, so it's the same rate. Here are some more numbers of bunt hits by year:
1990 538
2000 470
2005 582
2010 564
2015 531
2016 484
2017 420
2018 441
2019 232
The 2019 bunt-hit leaders are Kolten Wong and Victor Robles with 7.
The long-term trend is, yes, players are getting stronger. But the huge increase in HR rate, just vs 2018, clearly points to the ball being different. As said already by others, the Athletic article nails it.
Moving the fences back was my first thought, too. But there's no way that will happen, since in most ballparks it would be incredibly costly to make those kinds of renovations.
Then I had a brief flash of memory, and went and looked up the 1991 World Series.
On both of those Kirby Puckett plays, you see the hockey-board Plexiglas in place above the outfield fence, extending an additional several feet. I think it would be incredibly unpopular, but there is at least an option in that. Maybe require longer minimum fence distances in new ballparks, encourage current ballparks to move fences where possible, and where not possible (or willing) use the exit velocity and launch angle data to calculate the best height for adding clear boards to extend the tops of the fences--customized by park and even field section.
How many more articles do we need to read about the baseball in FiveThirtyEight, the Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus that all strongly point to the baseball being the problem before we admit the bleeping baseball is the problem.
That was my thought too. I’m really surprised to see Joe brush this off as conclusively a non-issue. Dr Wills’ surgical take down of the 2019 baseball (on The Athletic from a few weeks back) is pretty damning.
I’m just excited to see you refer to Schoolhouse Rock.
Isn't the insane explosion in HR at AAA after switching to the same ball used in MLB enough of a smoking gun? That pretty much removes the change in weight training, etc., from the equation.
I'll be Mr. Contrary and say that I don't think the high HR rate is a big problem. But I don't think baseball has any really huge problems right now. Some things I think are bigger problems:
1. Pace of play is too slow.
2. Too many patches on uniforms and butt-ugly modifications for Mother's Day, Veteran's Day, etc.
3. I desperately want good official fielding stats. Errors are almost useless. There should be an official stat for good plays, and errors should be given out much more frequently.
4. Being able to sign non-Americans at age 16 (I think that's right) gives them a huge advantage in development, and is the main reason why Hispanics make up such a huge percentage of players now. Non-Americans should not have a competitive advantage over Americans.
5. Not enough stolen bases or triples.
6. Salaries are out of this world insane. I'd like to see baseball management implement a salary cap and give the money back to the fans.
MLB has been trying to do half of #6 for years. But even if they succeed they'll never do the half you really want to see.
The difference between deadening the ball and extending the fences is not nothing... Extending the fences makes for MORE action, not less. More chasing of the ball, more balls outfielders can't get to, but the ball still can get through the infield when sharply hit, as opposed to a dead ball turning some of those hits into outs (and/or allowing the IF to play slightly in and getting to more slow rollers). Extending the fences would also lead to the OF playing deeper, which would convert some line outs and flares to fall. Higher scoring in general would follow the fences out, but lower scoring would follow a duller ball.
Extending the fences would not lead to higher scoring.
Well duh. 😉 But the general idea is the same, and you can deaden the ball everywhere, but you can’t move the walls everywhere.
True dat. But you can move most of the walls, raise some others, and (probably) back the plate up in most parks where the OF walls have nowhere to go. None of this, of course, affects the Ks directly but might make guys, at the margin, sacrifice so HRs for OBs.
Both dead balls and more difficult walls get to reducing home runs. The dead ball make outs easier to come by via non-strikeout means. Moving/changing walls doesn't, necessarily. Strikeouts are fascist.
Agreed. That is one thing I LIKE about moving the walls. If non-K outs are harder to come by, batters will hopefully take advantage of the space. Although, pitchers might focus even more on Ks so who knows what the actual trend would be. It all depends on what folks (including you and me) want- more scoring or less? longer game or shorter?
I want a shorter game with the same amount of scoring :).
Increasing ballpark size and deadening the ball are essentially the same thing. Either would help today’s more boring game. Sorry, Joe, but three true outcomes suck to watch.
I think the ballpark size is a huge factor. You touched on it a little. But a fair number of those opposite field flare HRs are dropping into the first row of a fence 10 feet, or more, shorter than they were in the 80s into the 90s.
Yes,this! Players are stronger and bigger than ever with a greater pool of talent and what do these idiots in control do? Allow smaller ball parks with smaller foul territory and basically play with a Superball. Of course players are striking out or hitting HRs - it’s because they are swinging for the fences. Deaden the ball and players may not swing as hard and actually make non HR contact. Can anyone remember someone bunting?
What the "idiots" wanted were things that were fan-friendly. Big foul territory is fan-unfriendly because foul outs are big-time boring. Fans like HR's, and fans love outfielders leaping over the short wall to snag a HR ball.
I don't know which player is the most likely to bunt, but for some reason Dee Gordon came to mind. He has only 1 bunt hit in 2019, but had 8 in 2018 and 16 in 2017. I wonder how many total bunt hits there are this season.
Ah, here we go. There are 232 bunt hits in 2019. There were 441 in 2018, so it's the same rate. Here are some more numbers of bunt hits by year:
1990 538
2000 470
2005 582
2010 564
2015 531
2016 484
2017 420
2018 441
2019 232
The 2019 bunt-hit leaders are Kolten Wong and Victor Robles with 7.
The long-term trend is, yes, players are getting stronger. But the huge increase in HR rate, just vs 2018, clearly points to the ball being different. As said already by others, the Athletic article nails it.
Moving the fences back was my first thought, too. But there's no way that will happen, since in most ballparks it would be incredibly costly to make those kinds of renovations.
Then I had a brief flash of memory, and went and looked up the 1991 World Series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4mdizqUyPg
On both of those Kirby Puckett plays, you see the hockey-board Plexiglas in place above the outfield fence, extending an additional several feet. I think it would be incredibly unpopular, but there is at least an option in that. Maybe require longer minimum fence distances in new ballparks, encourage current ballparks to move fences where possible, and where not possible (or willing) use the exit velocity and launch angle data to calculate the best height for adding clear boards to extend the tops of the fences--customized by park and even field section.
How many more articles do we need to read about the baseball in FiveThirtyEight, the Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus that all strongly point to the baseball being the problem before we admit the bleeping baseball is the problem.
That was my thought too. I’m really surprised to see Joe brush this off as conclusively a non-issue. Dr Wills’ surgical take down of the 2019 baseball (on The Athletic from a few weeks back) is pretty damning.
What exactly would qualify as a “smoking gun” at this point? There is a difference between doubt and reasonable doubt, Joe.