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tmutchell's avatar

The R.A. Dickey story is so crazy on so many levels. When the Neyer/James Guide to pitchers came out in 2004, Dickey's original pitching arsenal was listed as:

𝘙.𝘈. 𝘋𝘪𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘺 (2001 2005)

𝘗𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘚𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 2003: 1. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨” 2. 𝘍𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘭 (𝘭𝘰𝘸-90𝘴)

𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦: 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘬 2004

𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘦: 𝘈𝘤𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦, “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨” 𝘪𝘴 “𝘢 𝘩𝘺𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘥 𝘬𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘬𝘭𝘦-𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘷𝘦/𝘴𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘢 𝘴𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳. 𝘈𝘤𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘉𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘮, 𝘋𝘪𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘺'𝘴 "𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨" 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘬𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘬𝘭𝘦-𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘉𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘏𝘰𝘰𝘵𝘰𝘯 𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘸.

So, basically, they had no idea what it was. I have read that it was really a hard knuckler, but there was no indication of that at the time, and anyway he did not throw it like a knuckler, he came straight over the top like Mike Mussina and fell off to the side, releasing it like a splitter, albeit not always with the same action on it. It does not seem that it was a knuckler.

In any case, later on, c. 2005, he was listed as having a Knuckelball, then fastball only, though at the time the distinction was academic at best. He had pitched fewer than 30 innings in MLB in 2005 (giving up 22 Earned Runs!) and would make only one appearance in MLB in the next two seasons, allowing 7 ER in 3.1 IP in 2006. He didn't get back to MLB til 2008, at age 33, and didn't have success as a starter til 2010, his age 35 season.

There really never has ever been a career anything even remotely like Dickey's. His career WAR of 23.7 is in itself nothing special, but the fact that he earned almost all of it (96%!) from his age 35 season on is absolutely unprecedented.

There have, amazingly, only been 34 pitchers who amassed at least 20 WAR from age 35 on. Twenty one of those are in the Hall of Fame, and a couple more (Clemens, Schilling, Tommy John) may be someday.

But all of them have one thing that Dickey does not: They were good, or at least useful, before turning 35. Each and every one of them amassed at least 7 WAR and had pitched at least 200 innings more than Dickey had to that point. The group averaged 42 WAR and over 2200 IP up to age 34. Dickey had 0.9 WAR and 442 innings.

On average, they earned about 47% of their career WAR up through their age 34 seasons, and none were close to Dickey's 96%. Charlie Hough was the only other one above 80%, and just barely so. Only two others, Hoyt Wilhelm and Jack Quinn, were even above 70%.

Hough had the lowest WAR through age 34 at 7.4, and even he had pitched nearly 1200 innings in the majors up to that point, mostly in relief, which is why his WAR total is not higher. Ellis Kinder did not even *reach* the majors until age 31 and he had amassed almost 10 WAR and over 700 innings before turning 35. Hoyt Wilhelm and Mariano Rivera, both almost exclusively relief pitchers had both pitched a couple of hundred innings more in the majors than Dickey had to that point.

Pitchers like Phil Niekro, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer and Jack Quinn, all famously late-bloomers, had all pitched at least 1300 innings in the majors and been worth a dozen or more WAR up to that age. Even Satchel Paige's page, which shows official records just a small fraction of all the Negro League and barnstorming games he played, shows him pitching almost 900 innings before age 35 and amassing 26 WAR.

There really, really, has never been a career like this before, and it's hard to imagine it ever happening again. It's all but impossible for someone to stick around for more than a decade the way Dickey did and then somehow successfully remake himself in his mid 30's without, well, cheating, frankly.

But one of the best things about baseball is that this is probably the only sport where something like that could happen. Nobody in any other sport I can think of can somehow develop in their 30s a skill they never had in their 20s and not just hang on but thrive at the highest levels of competition. Just astonishing, and maybe worth a vote for the Hall of Perseverance, if not for Cooperstown.

Dave L's avatar

One nice thing, hopefully, about the ballot going back to normal is that some of these guys can get "honored" with a vote or two. Without it becoming some major argument about the soul of baseball. I remember that more commonly in years past where beat writers or local journalists would tip their cap to a long time player, without fear they were keeping someone else out of the HOF with that vote.

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