Hall of Fame Candidates by Birth Year, Part 1
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Enough of the selling, let’s get to the baseball! We’re talking Hall of Fame; this is Part 1. Here’s the idea: We’re going to take a look at Hall of Fame candidates by recent birth years and predict who will make it to Cooperstown in the years ahead. Part I will start with 1978 (the first year where there are no Hall of Famers) and take us to 1987.
In Part 2, which will run on Thursday, we’re looking at years after 1987, so there will be a lot more projection involved.
Let’s get some arguments started!
1978
Hall of Fame lock: None.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
I have absolutely no idea: Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins.
Longshots: None.
They might get their jersey retired: None.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Aramis Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Vernon Wells, Ben Sheets, Barry Zito, Aaron Harang.
Oh, what might have been: Ángel Berroa.
OK, as suggested above, I have no idea what to do with Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Let me show you a set of stats.
Utley: 1,885 hits, 411 doubles, 58 triples, 259 homers, 1,103 runs, 1025 RBIs, 154 stolen bases, 0 Gold Gloves, 0 MVPs.
Rollins: 2,455 hits, 511 doubles, 115 triples, 231 homers, 1,421 runs, 936 RBIs, 470 stolen bases, 4 Gold Gloves, 1 MVP.
OK, you look at those counting and award stats and tell me: Who is the Hall of Famer? Well, if anybody, it HAS to be Rollins, right? I mean, this is not even close. Then, throw on top of that positions — Rollins as shortstop, Utley as second baseman — and it seems obvious that if you’re going to back one of these two guys, it has to be Rollins.
Now, I want to show you another set of stats:
Utley: .275/.358/.465, 117 OPS+, 173 WAR Runs Above Average, 131 Fielding Runs, 64.5 bWAR, 61.6 fWAR, 56.9 JAWS*, basically right at the average of Hall of Fame second basemen.
Rollins: .264/.324/.418, 95 OPS+, minus-43 WAR runs, 43 Fielding Runs, 47.6 bWAR, 49.6 fWAR, 40.1 JAWS, behind Troy Tulowitzki, Jim Fregosi, Bert Campaneris and numerous other non-Hall of Famers.
*JAWS is Jay Jaffe’s ingenious invention blending career WAR and peak WAR into one number. We’ll use it a few times in this series, I suspect.
OK, look at those and tell me: Who is the Hall of Famer? This time it HAS to be Utley, no? I mean, by these advanced numbers, Utley was something like 20 percent better than his longtime teammate.
So in the end, well, heck if I know. I guess if you have to bet, you bet on neither one making it in. But it really could go any number of ways. Both will have strong supporters. In my mind, I suppose that Utley is the more viable Hall of Fame candidate, maybe, but his career was awfully short, so maybe Rollins is the more viable candidate, but he just didn’t get on base, really, this is all just a complete mystery.
In 2003, I was working at the Kansas City Star, and I wrote at great length that Ángel Berroa was the clear-cut Rookie of the Year. I don’t know if this had anything at all to do with him winning the award over Hideki Matsui (and the best rookie player that year, Mark Teixeira) but I really enjoyed watching Berroa play. He wasn’t a particularly good defensive shortstop, and he wouldn’t walk … but he played with a lot of energy, hit 17 homers, stole 21 bases, and the Royals, shockingly, were a contender into mid-August, in large part because of Berroa.
He was never nearly as good again. In 2003, Berroa’s bWAR was 2.5.
For the rest of his career, Berroa’s bWAR was minus-2.3.
I don’t know why he fell off a cliff. I guess that happens sometimes.
1979
Hall of Fame lock: Adrián Beltré.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: None.
They might get their jersey retired: Mark Buehrle (already happened), Johan Santana.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Ryan Howard, Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, Brandon Webb, Jon Garland, Adam Dunn.
Oh, what might have been: Rick Ankiel.
The thing I love so much about Adrian Beltré is that if you had told people in, say, 2011 that he was going to the Hall of Fame, you would have gotten some quizzical looks and Steven A. Smith level screaming about the diminishing Hall of Fame.
And, like, five years later, he wasn’t just an acknowledged Hall of Famer, he was a slam-dunk, first-ballot guy.
So what happened? Certainly, Beltré was good in those five or so years — he hit .310/.362/.508 and won his final two Gold Gloves — but the change of attitude about his Hall of Fame case really revolved around his hilarious personality, which he felt freer to show as the years went on, and perhaps even more because his career stats just sneaked up on everybody. Seemed like overnight, he went from “good player” to a guy with 3,000 hits, closing in on 500 homers, five Gold Gloves and some of the best defensive numbers for any player in history.
It actually wasn’t sudden — it was a long journey for Beltré, who started in the big leagues when he was 19 years old — but it certainly felt that way.
Ankiel was a true can’t-miss pitcher; he was overpowering major league hitters when he was just 19 years old. But, well, the story has been told many times — at 20, he mysteriously lost his ability to throw strikes, never got it back, and had to start over again as a hitter. Rick Ankiel ended up getting more than 2,000 big-league plate appearances, which really is a triumph all its own.
1980
Hall of Fame lock: Albert Pujols.
Better than 50-50 chance: CC Sabathia.
Longshots: Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista.
They might get their jersey retired: None.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Jonathan Papelbon, Dan Haren, Shane Victorino, Nick Swisher.
Oh, what might have been: Mark Prior.
All right, let’s talk for a moment about Pujols — since July 10, he’s hitting .408/.455/.855 with 10 home runs. Utterly incredible. Now, Mike Schur and others will point out that he’s really been doing all of this damage against lefty pitchers, and it’s true as far as that goes …
Pujols vs. righties: .198/.285/.316 with 4 homers
Pujols vs. lefties: .398/.436/.807 with 10 homers
… but as I have tried to tell Mike, I think this misses the point a little bit. For years and years, Pujols didn’t hit lefties OR righties. I mean, he might have run into a few more balls against lefties, maybe, but here are his split stats during his time with the Angels:
Pujols vs. righties: .260/.317/.446
Pujols vs. lefties: .247/.301/.455
Same blech. It was really last year with the Dodgers that Pujols, at age 41, made some sort of adjustment to hit lefties better (while continuing to struggle against righties). Then he came back to St. Louis, there were all these good vibes, all the cheers he had missed out on for a decade, and now he doesn’t even look like the same hitter he was for a decade. I tweeted out that Pujols must be Superman and St. Louis the sun.* He looks sturdy in the box again, he looks dangerous, and it’s just amazing, amazing stuff. He’s now seven homers shy of 700 with about five weeks left in the season. I think he just might get there.
*If you’ve ever spent a July day in St. Louis you already know that it is the closest city on earth to the sun.
The Sabathia case fascinates me. Statistically, I could see the argument that he falls short — his 50.8 JAWS places him well below the Hall of Fame median, and several non-Hall of Famers — like David Cone, Kevin Brown and, of course, Curt Schilling — might have more compelling statistical arguments.
But I kind of think Sabathia’s going in without that much fuss. I absolutely could be 100 percent wrong on this — but I just think he was such a respected and admired player, he checks all the intangible boxes (Cy Young winner, World Series hero, bulldog ace in his prime who was always good for 230 innings), I kind of think that his statistical case will not be litigated and relitigated the way it is for many pitchers.
Sabathia reminds me of when John Smoltz and Roy Halladay came up. You could certainly have made a decent argument against either of them. But they both sailed in first-ballot — different reasons, of course, but I think they both were just so well-respected that the arguments against them seemed petty and unimportant. Again, I might be completely off here, but I think it will be pretty straightforward for CC, who is a great guy and would only enhance the Hall of Fame
I don’t need to go into the might-have-beens with Mark Prior. In my view, he was pretty clearly the best pitcher in the National League in 2003, his second year, and giving the NL Cy Young Award to reliever Eric Gagne has not aged well. The injuries came in a tidal wave. Prior’s one of the all-time great What Ifs.
1981
Locks: None.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: None.
They might get their jersey retired: Adam Wainwright.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Curtis Granderson, Jake Peavy, Justin Morneau, James Shields, Ben Zobrist.
Oh, what might have been: Josh Hamilton.
The tragedy of Josh Hamilton aside, this was a year for solid players, the sort you could count on. I’d call it the Ben Zobrist year. I think Adam Wainwright is the best player born in 1981. The craziest stat on him is that he finished top-three in the Cy Young voting FOUR times and won ZERO of them.
To me, Wainwright is the very paragon of what a ballplayer should be: solid, friendly, thoughtful and relentless. He came back from injury and the brink so many times. Even this year, at age 40, he has pitched well. It might or might not be his last season — he has hinted that he will want to step away and be with his family, but he hasn’t announced it — and while the career looks short of Cooperstown, it’s a career to be very, very proud of. If I were making decisions for the Cardinals, I’d absolutely retire his No. 50.
1982
Locks: Yadier Molina.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: Robinson Canó.
They might get their jersey retired: Francisco Rodriguez, David Wright.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Ian Kinsler, David Wright, Adrián Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Dontrelle Willis, Shin-Soo Choo, Jhonny Peralta.
Oh, what might have been: Grady Sizemore.
OK, I will admit: I didn’t know quite what to do with Yadi Molina. I mean, he FEELS like a lock, to me. But his 42 bWAR is uninspiring, and his 35.4 JAWS places him just behind Jason Kendall and just ahead of Darrell Porter, neither being Hall of Famers.
Then again, his FanGraphs WAR — which gives him a lot more credit for his defense — is a much more substantial 55.6, placing him up there will all-time great Bill Dickey (though FanGraphs WAR has its quirks too; it puts Russell Martin up there as well). I think, bottom line, WAR does not always feel especially trustworthy when it comes to catchers. Otherworldly defense and occasional bursts offensively make Molina a Hall of Fame lock for me.
Canó could have been a lock. He was certainly trending that way — a Gold Glove second baseman who hit .300 with massive doubles and home run power? There aren’t many of those in baseball history. In fact, there might not be ANY — Hornsby wasn’t a good fielder, Collins didn’t hit with power, Morgan wasn’t really a .300 hitter and neither was Sandberg. The closest thing might be Jackie Robinson. Anyway, Cano has twice been suspended for using PEDs, and I just don’t get the sense the voters will be all that interested in his case.
From 2005 through 2008, Grady Sizemore was about as good as anybody in the American League. He did pretty much EVERYTHING — get on base, hit for power, steal bases, win Gold Gloves, you name it. There are those who say that his all-out style of play all but guaranteed that injuries would eventually derail him. All I know is because of those injuries, we missed out on an all-time player.
1983
Locks: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander.
Better than 50-50 chance: Zack Greinke, Joey Votto, Joe Mauer.
Longshots: None.
They might get their jersey retired: Cole Hamels.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Braun, Jose Reyes, Howie Kendrick, Huston Street, Brett Gardner, Hunter Pence, Nick Markakis.
Oh, what might have been: Hanley Ramirez.
Wow. I mean — wow, wow, wow, what a year 1983 was. I don’t suppose there’s any need to talk about our locks — we all know Cabrera and Verlander will go into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Both are prime members of The Baseball 100.
But I imagine the better-than-50-50 players caught your eye. I’ve already covered Joey Votto, and I’ve over-covered Zack Greinke, so let’s go to the player I suspect is the most controversial of the bunch, Joe Mauer.*
*Though I feel sure that plenty of you don’t think any of the three belongs in the Hall.
Mauer’s career, in a small way, feels a little bit to me like Ernie Banks’. For the first eight full seasons of Ernie Banks’ career, he was a shortstop — and a revolutionary one. He hit for power like no shortstop ever had before. He won two MVP awards. He slugged .552 and averaged 37 home runs per year. He won a Gold Glove, too.
In 1962, he moved to first base. And he was fine there — he hit 37 home runs in ’62 — but he wasn’t the same. As pitching took over the game, Banks hit just .257, slugged just .440 and was more an icon than a great player.
For the first nine full seasons of Joe Mauer’s career, he was a catcher — and a revolutionary one. In 2006, he hit .347 and became the first American League catcher to win a batting title. Two years later, in 2008, he did it again. In 2009, he had a season for the ages — he hit .365/.444/.587, becoming the first catcher to lead the league in all three slash categories.
In all, as a catcher (or at least mostly as a catcher), Mauer hit .323/.405/.469 with an MVP, three Gold Gloves and six All-Star appearances, four of them starts. He was on the all-time list of great catchers before he even got to his 10th year in the big leagues.
Then, after the 2013 season — to protect Mauer from concussions — the Twins moved him to first base. Like with Banks, it wasn’t a great fit. Mauer was actually pretty nimble defensively out there, but he had never hit much for power, and his body was worn down, and for the last five years of his career he hit just .278 and slugged just .388.
So what do you do here? With Ernie Banks, the answer was easy, but Banks did help his own cause by swatting enough home runs as a first baseman to get to 500. Mauer doesn’t have that Hall of Fame number to build a case around. To me, he did enough before the injuries to secure a spot in Cooperstown. We’ll see if the voters agree.
In 2007, Hanley Ramirez hit .332, slugged .562, mashed 48 doubles and 29 homers, stole 51 bases and basically gave off the Fernando Tatis vibe of “holy cow, this guy can do anything.” He was even better in 2008. He won the batting title in 2009. Through age 25, he wasn’t just going for the Hall of Fame, he was going for the inner circle. And then, boom, it all crashed — the injuries piled up, he got ticked off when the Marlins moved him from shortstop, he was traded to the Dodgers, and nothing about his career felt fresh or exciting any longer.
1984
Locks: Max Scherzer.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: None.
They might get their jersey retired: Ryan Zimmerman (already happened), Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, Justin Turner*.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Alex Gordon, Troy Tulowitzki, Jon Lester, Brian McCann, Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir.
Oh, what might have been: Matt Kemp
*Turner’s number probably will not be retired because the Dodgers seem to retire only Hall of Fame numbers, but Turner’s a Dodger icon, so you never know.
Pretty straightforward year; not too much to discuss. It’s all Scherzer. Remember how early in his career, he was viewed as something of a disappointment — ace stuff but could quite get to that ace level (I can recall Detroit people telling me he was another Jeremy Bonderman, and I don’t think they meant that as a compliment). Then somewhat out of nowhere in 2013, he won the Cy Young. He had never received a single Cy Young vote up to that point, never made an All-Star team, nothing.
But once he got there, he basically pitched Cy Young level baseball every healthy year for the rest of his career, including this year.
Interesting to me how many very good players were born in 1984 — good enough to be franchise icons but not Hall of Famers. Zimmerman has already had the ceremony for the Nationals. I don’t think the Royals will retire Alex Gordon’s number — they’ve retired only three numbers — but he definitely will be elected to the Royals Hall of Fame, and very soon.
In 2011, at age 26, Matt Kemp had a truly great season. He hit .324/.399/.586 and led the league with 39 homers, 126 RBIs and 115 runs. Not long after that, I was doing an event with the late, great Tony Gwynn, and Matt Kemp was in the audience.
“You asked me if there was anybody who could hit .400 in today’s game,” Gwynn said. “Well, there’s someone right there who could do it.” And he pointed at Kemp. It didn’t quite work out that way, but Kemp did play in three All-Star Games, and when he was on, he was special.
1985
Locks: None.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: Evan Longoria.
They might get their jersey retired: David Price for Tampa Bay, maybe?
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones, Matt Carpenter, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy.
Oh, what might have been: Carlos Gomez.
I didn’t know whether to put Longoria in the longshot category or drop him down to “might get jersey retired.” Thing is, he’s still just 36. If he could stay healthy and put up a couple more productive seasons, he absolutely could get his WAR into the 60s and, I don’t know, maybe put himself in the mix. Probably not. But maybe?
Longoria and Josh Donaldson were born less than two months apart — I wonder which one you would say has had the better career. Donaldson, of course, has that MVP award (which, like just about all the awards of the past decade, should have gone to Mike Trout) but Longoria’s got three Gold Gloves and has put up about 10 more wins above replacement.
Cargo — Carlos Gomez — has been a lot of things in his career. In 2013, playing centerfield for the Brewers, he had one of the greatest defensive seasons I’ve ever seen. You could not hit a ball anywhere in the county without him running it down. He also banged 10 triples and 24 homers, and stole 40 bases; that guy was a superstar. And he played with a verve seldom seen.
The next year, offensively, he was even better, but his defense fell off dramatically, and the Brewers traded him to Houston, and Houston released him, and then he signed with Texas, and then he signed with Tampa Bay, and then he signed with the Mets … it just didn’t turn out like we all hoped. But Gomez was inducted into the Milwaukee Brewers Wall of Honor.
1986
Locks: None.
Better than 50-50 chance: None.
Longshots: King Felix Hernandez, Andrew McCutchen.
They might get their jersey retired: None (well, King Felix will, but I already mentioned him).
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Lorenzo Cain, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Carlos Santana, Charlie Blackmon, Sean Doolittle.
Oh, what might have been: Pablo Sandoval.
Tom Tango often talks to me about how the hockey Hall of Fame gets something right that baseball misses — if you’re great, they put you in the Hall of Fame. Cam Neely played only 726 NHL games (about nine seasons worth) and was done at 30, but he was great and he’s in the Hall of Fame. Pavel Bure played even fewer games; but he was great and he’s in the Hall of Fame. Pat LaFontaine, Peter Forsberg, Eric Lindros and, of course, Bobby Orr, these players had careers cut short by injuries, but they were great. And they are all in the Hall of Fame.
So what about King Felix? For seven years, from 2009 through 2015, he was not only great, he was the pitcher that other pitchers admired. I sometimes call this the Jonathan Winters Aura — Jonathan Winters was a very funny man, any of us could see this, but among comedians he was a god. He would walk into a room with the world’s greatest comics — Robin Williams, Steve Martin, Billy Crystal, Jim Carrey, Tracey Ullman — and they would be shaking with nerves they admired him so much.
That’s kind of what it was like for pitchers with Felix. He was that level of great. He won a Cy Young, finished second twice, made the All-Star team six times, threw a perfect game and even while pitching for lamentable Mariners teams that didn’t score runs, he was the class of baseball.
He put up a few OK years around those seven great ones, but probably not enough of them to impress a Hall of Fame voter. He was basically done at 30. His JAWS is 112th among pitchers, right next to Frank Viola (but also right next to new Hall of Famer Jim Kaat). I don’t think the voters will be too interested, but if you think about the Hockey Hall of Fame philosophy, it would come down to one question: Was King Felix great?
Damn right, he was.
The same thing, on a slightly lesser scale, can be said for Andrew McCutchen, who for five or so seasons in the 2010s was probably the best player in the National League.
Most bWAR, 2011-2015:
Andrew McCutchen, 31.5
Joey Votto, 28.7
Buster Posey, 25.2
Jason Heyward, 23.4
Paul Goldschmidt, 23.2
McCutchen fell off dramatically then. He’s still out there, playing his heart out at age 35, and I don’t think the Hall of Fame voters will be swayed, but again… greatness.
Pablo Sandoval was a natural hitter. He hit .330/.387/.556 with 44 doubles in his first full season in the big leagues. In those days, he probably was closer to his official weight of 268 pounds — in his later years that was clearly a one-foot-on-the-scale measurement — but the man could swing the bat. And they’ve always loved Kung Fu Panda in San Francisco, right? He played a role on all three World Series teams, and hit .426 in those three Series.
1987
Locks: None.
Better than 50-50 chance: Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt.
Longshots: Kenley Jansen (maybe?), Jose Abreu (not impossible).
They might get their jersey retired: Kyle Seager.
Not quite Hall of Fame but good careers: Michael Brantley, Brandon Crawford, Zack Britton, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, Lance Lynn, Carlos Carrasco.
Oh, what might have been: Cameron Maybin.
OK, so, yes, I’m pretty cowardly. A few paragraphs earlier, I put Yadi Molina as a lock rather than as a better-than-50-50 guy, in part because I believe voters are enthralled by Molina but also in part out of self-defense. I knew that if I didn’t put him as a lock, Cardinals fans would come to my home with axes and torches.
And here we are now and I’m not calling Posey a lock even though, if I only had only one vote, and I had the choice of giving that one vote to either Molina or Buster Posey, I think I’d give it to Posey. But let’s keep that between us non-Cardinals fans, OK?
I think with his MVP-looking season this year, Paul Goldschmidt has moved himself up into the ranks of probable Hall of Famers. The job isn’t done yet; he still needs some good years, but he’s playing some of the best baseball of his life, and he’s not yet 35, and I think it’s going to happen.
Cameron Maybin, after being the 10th pick in the 2005 draft, was declared a can’t-miss superstar by just about everybody. Kid could do everything. Run. Throw. Hit for power. Scouts adored him. Everybody adored him. I can’t say why it didn’t work out. I suppose it didn’t help that, when he was 20 years old, he was the key piece in the trade that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. That meant he came to Miami with roughly 10,000 pounds of expectations on his back. The Marlins traded him to the Padres, the Padres traded him to Atlanta, the thigh bone’s connected to the hip bone, Atlanta traded him back to Detroit, Detroit traded him again, but this time to Los Angeles… it just never happened.
Coming Thursday: Part II will deal with much younger players, so we’re going to have to change up the categories and make it more about projections. Should be fun!
I mean.... Joe's next tournament has to be birth year v. birth year, right? Right?! And that 1983 team is looking like an early top-seed contender.
Standards for number retirements are just all over the place. The Yankees retiring Paul O’Neill’s number is a complete joke.