I'm a believer in the Rays. The sole object of baseball is to win the game. And they're the only team in the AL that's been doing it consistently, all season long. Doubt this squad at your own risk. It's more likely they will continue to find ways to win than it is for them to flame out in the playoffs.
Hey Joe, figure you would appreciate this and I’m sure others like Jayson Stark would, too. But everyone is sleeping on how abjectly insane and clutch Brayan Rocchio’s season has been. One of the more unique seasons we’ve ever had.
He will be the ONLY PLAYER IN MLB HISTORY to lead a team in RBIs as the 9-hole hitter. And he’s had this cinched for weeks. He also leads MLB in walkoffs this year (4. Actually he leads MLB in walkoffs over the past 2 years).
Speaking of walk-offs, his 2-out, 2-strike, 2-run walkoff double against CWS last week was the biggest hit in all of MLBs regular season (essentially the difference between a first round bye and the 6 seed). He also walked off the CWS while trailing in another game in July.
PS: Yes, CLE did try moving him up in the order at one point. No, it did not—for whatever reason—work.
The weird part is that he has been more productive from the 9 hole. 63.9% of his PAs have produced 74% of his RBI. Leading the team is somewhat being on a poor offensive team. (73 is not usually a team leader.) Doing it from the #9 hole might have to do with the Cleveland lineup or luck.
Despite being in the #9 hole, mostly Rocchio had 25 more runners on base than the average guy with his number of PAs, including 12 more with runners in scoring position. The average guy had 67 RBI. With more opportunities, he got 6 more. As it is most of the time, it is more team dependent than clutch. Rocchio was better in low leverage and bases empty situations than he was in high leverage or with RISP.
In Game 5 of the NLDS, the Dodgers blew a play where nobody covered third base. After the game, Don Mattingly, who knew he was about to be replaced as Dodger manager, blamed Corey Seager, the rookie shortstop. When reporters approached the pitcher at the time, Zach Greinke (hi, Joe!) and asked him about it, he looked a little taken aback and said, well, I could have covered third, and so could other people.
And in that moment, I lost all the respect I had had for Don Mattingly.
With the end of Justin Verlander's career and the possible end of Max Scherzer's, I was looking at the ever-evolving idea of a work horse. The last two years, we hadn't seen a >210 IP pitcher, but this year, Sandy Alcantara has eclipsed the mark to reset our present ceiling.
Last 300 IP pitcher: Steve Carlton 1980
290: Bert Blyleven, 1985
280: Rough Tough Charlie Hough & Roger Clemens, 1987
270: Randy Johnson, 1999
260: Roy Hallady, 2003
250: Justin Verlander, 2011
240: David Price and Johnny Cueto, 2014
230: Price, 2016
220: Verlander, 2019
210: TBD
Phil Niekro, with over 342 in 1979, was the last at 310, 320, 330 and 340. It was his last truly great season, but he still won another 100 games over the rest of his career. Oh yeah, that 'rest of his career' was ages 41 to 48.
Phillies fans are accustomed to ugly feelings, but man, this team better hope for a lockout if they can't squeak into the postseason and make even a little bit of noise. One of my sons calls them the Country Club.
On a bright note on this dreary day (both literally and metaphorically) in the Delaware Valley, in 1972, my uncle began seriously turning me onto the beauty of baseball and the benefits of being lefthanded, which we both are. He took me to as many of a phenomenal lefty pitcher's home starts that year. At one of the Phillies-Braves games (not the one we went to later that season, which went into extra innings, with Lefty and Phil Niekro going the distance and Mike Lum stopping Carlton's 15-game winning streak), he pointed to a lefthanded Braves batter. "See that guy, Jimmy," he said. "Ralph Garr. You can shake him out of bed at 2:00 am, and he'll hit ropes."
From that moment forward, Ralph Garr became a magical figure for me. Last year, at a Cubs fantasy that I could only hang at, just a few months out from a knee replacement, my friends invited me to take some swings in the cage. I hadn't swung a bat in a few years, since my knee was first cooked. I walked up to the plate, took a deep breath, and heard my uncle telling me about Ralph Garr. First pitch I hit a rope! I stopped there, a happy man. Thank you, Ralph Garr!
Post trade deadline Guardians lineup is significantly better than I’ve seen in years. Pitching hasn’t been as strong the last month. A week off will help the pitching I believe but we will see.
Joe, would have loved just a bit more on the Snakes. You may not think they deserve it and the phillies are just choking the way open to them, but they came into the season with six starting pitchers with Corbin burnes supposed to return in June yet spent a significant chunk of the second half with just three healthy starters. Also,their three stars, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo have all had bad years by their standards. They are white knuckling this season down to the wire and it's a pretty good story!
I did like the great Sarah Langs note yesterday (?) that Ketel Marte is now the Dbacks all time leader in games played. It says a lot about me that I would have never guessed that he was close.
Jose Ramirez, in Cleveland, is the only other active team leader.
The Cubs' pitching scares nobody, but it's actually been rather good the last couple of weeks. The vaunted "best offense in baseball" has gone cold at exactly the wrong moment, scoring 9 runs in their last 5 games.
CLV vs, MLW in the Series, because no one deserves it more.
If quote-unquote my club doesn't make it, Guardians vs Brewers would be near the top of my list too. Perhaps the Padres over the Brewers but only because I still begrudge the team's move across leagues.
Last time winning a WS: LAD (2025), TEX (2023), HOU (2022), ATL (2021), BOS (2018), CHN (2016), NYY (2009), PHL (2008), CHA (2005), AZ (2001), CLE (1948), TB, SD & MIL (never)
Last time in a WS: LAD (2025), NYY (2024), TEX & AZ (2023), HOU & PHL (2022), ATL (2021), TB (2020), BOS (2018), CHN & CLE (2016), CHA (2005), SD (1998), MIL (1982)
I assume that the people in Milwaukee wanted to be back in the NL since that is where they were with the Braves. Or at least former owner Bud Selig wanted Milwaukee back in the NL.
>>Atlanta is probably the third-best team in all of baseball ...<<
Maybe so. But behind MIL and LAD, it is pretty tightly bunched. By Pythag, they are one of five teams with 90-96 wins, sitting right in the middle with 93.
Offensively, they are a bit above average with 4.59 R/g compared to a MLB norm of 4.48. But some of that is the park; they have a 97 OPS+. And it is a one-true outcome offense: they are in the top quartile in homers, below average in Ks, and near the bottom in walks. And who is the hitter that the other side needs to really worry about? With Acuna still not 100% (and likely never will be again) Olson is probably the most reliable hitter. But his post ASG slash stats are 230 / 296 / 460. Their two former ROY winners have been plus players, but Harris, who walks less than once per week, can be pitched to. And for those better with bbref Stathead search, is Ha-Seong Kim's 143 PAs the most for a position player with a zero -- yes, 0 -- OPS+?
On the pitching and defense side, they've been good - fifth in MLB in RA/g at 3.86 and, when you factor in parks, 4th in ERA+ at 117. A starting 3 of Sale, Mahle, and Holmes is okay, but it would be easy to see two blow-up games. The strength of the staff is a deep bullpen which, I guess, has gotten other teams through October.
All of which is to say ... Joe's #3 club has a lot of holes. I wouldn't be shocked to see them swept out in the WC round.
Ha-Seong Kim’s 0 OPS+ is pretty pathetic. Among position players with at least 140 PAs, StatHead has his as the sixth worst season all time (https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ValQ9). Some of these awful seasons occurred in the dead ball era, but Cam Gallagher had a -7 OPS+ just a few years ago in 2023.
(Negative OPS+ is allowed by the strange way OPS+ is calculated. The lowest possible OPS+ is -100. Many pitchers had negative OPS+ for their careers. Using the same 140 PA limit for a career, here are the absolute weakest
The first list should be renamed for Bill Bergen! He played 11 seasons, all of which had enough PAs to qualify. Of those 11, ten are in the list of 200 worst batting seasons of all time including 3 in the "top" 15. Even Mario Mendoza was only able to reach the list once.
Tony Pena, both father and son, are on the list. Marc Sullivan's year that was so bad that Bill James wrote his most scathing attack of a front office is "only" 38th. Ray Oyler's 1968 lead to the surprise of Mickey Stanley playing SS in the World Series. What in the world has happened to Ke'Bryan Hayes?
Unless I missed someone, the only HOFer on the list is George Wright whose final year in 1882 when he could no longer hit was a wee bit before my time. The other George Wright, who came along a century later, nearly made the list too. His worst was 33 OPS+ in 1985.
Bergen's Wikipedia article is pretty interesting too. He apparently was a terrific defensive catcher. His caught stealing numbers are in part a function of the time he played in, but also because he was really good. But he really couldn't hit at all. If you go read the Wikipedia article though stop before you get to the personal life stuff, unless you want to be horrified and depressed about his brother.
Thanks. Some pretty fun names on the second list. Tony Armas apparently didn't take batting lessons from his dad. Both Bartolo Colon and Rick Camp hit famous homers that would have been less famous if they were even vaguely decent hitters. Hoyt Wilhelm hit a homer in his first MLB at bat then never did so again in his next >1000 games. Both Mark and Al Leiter are listed; their backyard whiffle ball games must have been dual no-hitters every time. Sandy Koufax was such a bad hitter than his career bWAR is off by about 10% from his pitching only total. I'm not surprised that Don Johnson couldn't hit. Can't be too easy to swing a bat while wearing a pastel suit jacket and sockless loafers.
Joe - how good of a hugger do you think Payton Tolle is? I have a feeling he might be the best.
I'm a believer in the Rays. The sole object of baseball is to win the game. And they're the only team in the AL that's been doing it consistently, all season long. Doubt this squad at your own risk. It's more likely they will continue to find ways to win than it is for them to flame out in the playoffs.
Hey Joe, figure you would appreciate this and I’m sure others like Jayson Stark would, too. But everyone is sleeping on how abjectly insane and clutch Brayan Rocchio’s season has been. One of the more unique seasons we’ve ever had.
He will be the ONLY PLAYER IN MLB HISTORY to lead a team in RBIs as the 9-hole hitter. And he’s had this cinched for weeks. He also leads MLB in walkoffs this year (4. Actually he leads MLB in walkoffs over the past 2 years).
Speaking of walk-offs, his 2-out, 2-strike, 2-run walkoff double against CWS last week was the biggest hit in all of MLBs regular season (essentially the difference between a first round bye and the 6 seed). He also walked off the CWS while trailing in another game in July.
PS: Yes, CLE did try moving him up in the order at one point. No, it did not—for whatever reason—work.
Does this only count his RBIs while batting ninth? Or is it just "the majority of ABs" from the 9 hole?
The weird part is that he has been more productive from the 9 hole. 63.9% of his PAs have produced 74% of his RBI. Leading the team is somewhat being on a poor offensive team. (73 is not usually a team leader.) Doing it from the #9 hole might have to do with the Cleveland lineup or luck.
Despite being in the #9 hole, mostly Rocchio had 25 more runners on base than the average guy with his number of PAs, including 12 more with runners in scoring position. The average guy had 67 RBI. With more opportunities, he got 6 more. As it is most of the time, it is more team dependent than clutch. Rocchio was better in low leverage and bases empty situations than he was in high leverage or with RISP.
The way I saw the stat framed, it was that a player needed min 250 (not sure if it was ABs or PAs) from the 9 hole to be eligible.
I’d be interested to see if any #8 hitters in the era of pitchers hitting had ever done this, as that would essentially be the same thing.
You omitted Freddy Peralta for the Rays. The Rays did what the Rays do and Freddy has given up 3 earned in his last 34 innings
In Game 5 of the NLDS, the Dodgers blew a play where nobody covered third base. After the game, Don Mattingly, who knew he was about to be replaced as Dodger manager, blamed Corey Seager, the rookie shortstop. When reporters approached the pitcher at the time, Zach Greinke (hi, Joe!) and asked him about it, he looked a little taken aback and said, well, I could have covered third, and so could other people.
And in that moment, I lost all the respect I had had for Don Mattingly.
With the end of Justin Verlander's career and the possible end of Max Scherzer's, I was looking at the ever-evolving idea of a work horse. The last two years, we hadn't seen a >210 IP pitcher, but this year, Sandy Alcantara has eclipsed the mark to reset our present ceiling.
Last 300 IP pitcher: Steve Carlton 1980
290: Bert Blyleven, 1985
280: Rough Tough Charlie Hough & Roger Clemens, 1987
270: Randy Johnson, 1999
260: Roy Hallady, 2003
250: Justin Verlander, 2011
240: David Price and Johnny Cueto, 2014
230: Price, 2016
220: Verlander, 2019
210: TBD
Phil Niekro, with over 342 in 1979, was the last at 310, 320, 330 and 340. It was his last truly great season, but he still won another 100 games over the rest of his career. Oh yeah, that 'rest of his career' was ages 41 to 48.
Phillies fans are accustomed to ugly feelings, but man, this team better hope for a lockout if they can't squeak into the postseason and make even a little bit of noise. One of my sons calls them the Country Club.
On a bright note on this dreary day (both literally and metaphorically) in the Delaware Valley, in 1972, my uncle began seriously turning me onto the beauty of baseball and the benefits of being lefthanded, which we both are. He took me to as many of a phenomenal lefty pitcher's home starts that year. At one of the Phillies-Braves games (not the one we went to later that season, which went into extra innings, with Lefty and Phil Niekro going the distance and Mike Lum stopping Carlton's 15-game winning streak), he pointed to a lefthanded Braves batter. "See that guy, Jimmy," he said. "Ralph Garr. You can shake him out of bed at 2:00 am, and he'll hit ropes."
From that moment forward, Ralph Garr became a magical figure for me. Last year, at a Cubs fantasy that I could only hang at, just a few months out from a knee replacement, my friends invited me to take some swings in the cage. I hadn't swung a bat in a few years, since my knee was first cooked. I walked up to the plate, took a deep breath, and heard my uncle telling me about Ralph Garr. First pitch I hit a rope! I stopped there, a happy man. Thank you, Ralph Garr!
Post trade deadline Guardians lineup is significantly better than I’ve seen in years. Pitching hasn’t been as strong the last month. A week off will help the pitching I believe but we will see.
It’s easier when Bailey and Rocchio have 2-HR games. I love that.
Joe, would have loved just a bit more on the Snakes. You may not think they deserve it and the phillies are just choking the way open to them, but they came into the season with six starting pitchers with Corbin burnes supposed to return in June yet spent a significant chunk of the second half with just three healthy starters. Also,their three stars, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo have all had bad years by their standards. They are white knuckling this season down to the wire and it's a pretty good story!
I did like the great Sarah Langs note yesterday (?) that Ketel Marte is now the Dbacks all time leader in games played. It says a lot about me that I would have never guessed that he was close.
Jose Ramirez, in Cleveland, is the only other active team leader.
The Cubs' pitching scares nobody, but it's actually been rather good the last couple of weeks. The vaunted "best offense in baseball" has gone cold at exactly the wrong moment, scoring 9 runs in their last 5 games.
CLV vs, MLW in the Series, because no one deserves it more.
If quote-unquote my club doesn't make it, Guardians vs Brewers would be near the top of my list too. Perhaps the Padres over the Brewers but only because I still begrudge the team's move across leagues.
Last time winning a WS: LAD (2025), TEX (2023), HOU (2022), ATL (2021), BOS (2018), CHN (2016), NYY (2009), PHL (2008), CHA (2005), AZ (2001), CLE (1948), TB, SD & MIL (never)
Last time in a WS: LAD (2025), NYY (2024), TEX & AZ (2023), HOU & PHL (2022), ATL (2021), TB (2020), BOS (2018), CHN & CLE (2016), CHA (2005), SD (1998), MIL (1982)
I assume that the people in Milwaukee wanted to be back in the NL since that is where they were with the Braves. Or at least former owner Bud Selig wanted Milwaukee back in the NL.
>>Atlanta is probably the third-best team in all of baseball ...<<
Maybe so. But behind MIL and LAD, it is pretty tightly bunched. By Pythag, they are one of five teams with 90-96 wins, sitting right in the middle with 93.
Offensively, they are a bit above average with 4.59 R/g compared to a MLB norm of 4.48. But some of that is the park; they have a 97 OPS+. And it is a one-true outcome offense: they are in the top quartile in homers, below average in Ks, and near the bottom in walks. And who is the hitter that the other side needs to really worry about? With Acuna still not 100% (and likely never will be again) Olson is probably the most reliable hitter. But his post ASG slash stats are 230 / 296 / 460. Their two former ROY winners have been plus players, but Harris, who walks less than once per week, can be pitched to. And for those better with bbref Stathead search, is Ha-Seong Kim's 143 PAs the most for a position player with a zero -- yes, 0 -- OPS+?
On the pitching and defense side, they've been good - fifth in MLB in RA/g at 3.86 and, when you factor in parks, 4th in ERA+ at 117. A starting 3 of Sale, Mahle, and Holmes is okay, but it would be easy to see two blow-up games. The strength of the staff is a deep bullpen which, I guess, has gotten other teams through October.
All of which is to say ... Joe's #3 club has a lot of holes. I wouldn't be shocked to see them swept out in the WC round.
Ha-Seong Kim’s 0 OPS+ is pretty pathetic. Among position players with at least 140 PAs, StatHead has his as the sixth worst season all time (https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/ValQ9). Some of these awful seasons occurred in the dead ball era, but Cam Gallagher had a -7 OPS+ just a few years ago in 2023.
(Negative OPS+ is allowed by the strange way OPS+ is calculated. The lowest possible OPS+ is -100. Many pitchers had negative OPS+ for their careers. Using the same 140 PA limit for a career, here are the absolute weakest
https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/jvq24 )
The first list should be renamed for Bill Bergen! He played 11 seasons, all of which had enough PAs to qualify. Of those 11, ten are in the list of 200 worst batting seasons of all time including 3 in the "top" 15. Even Mario Mendoza was only able to reach the list once.
Tony Pena, both father and son, are on the list. Marc Sullivan's year that was so bad that Bill James wrote his most scathing attack of a front office is "only" 38th. Ray Oyler's 1968 lead to the surprise of Mickey Stanley playing SS in the World Series. What in the world has happened to Ke'Bryan Hayes?
Unless I missed someone, the only HOFer on the list is George Wright whose final year in 1882 when he could no longer hit was a wee bit before my time. The other George Wright, who came along a century later, nearly made the list too. His worst was 33 OPS+ in 1985.
Bergen's Wikipedia article is pretty interesting too. He apparently was a terrific defensive catcher. His caught stealing numbers are in part a function of the time he played in, but also because he was really good. But he really couldn't hit at all. If you go read the Wikipedia article though stop before you get to the personal life stuff, unless you want to be horrified and depressed about his brother.
Thanks. Some pretty fun names on the second list. Tony Armas apparently didn't take batting lessons from his dad. Both Bartolo Colon and Rick Camp hit famous homers that would have been less famous if they were even vaguely decent hitters. Hoyt Wilhelm hit a homer in his first MLB at bat then never did so again in his next >1000 games. Both Mark and Al Leiter are listed; their backyard whiffle ball games must have been dual no-hitters every time. Sandy Koufax was such a bad hitter than his career bWAR is off by about 10% from his pitching only total. I'm not surprised that Don Johnson couldn't hit. Can't be too easy to swing a bat while wearing a pastel suit jacket and sockless loafers.