Future Hall of Famers (40 Years Later)
Forty years after my first three-cents-a-word prediction, I’m making the call again — starting with the National League.
Forty years ago, I wrote my first words for money. Those words were:
It is the ultimate dream of every ballplayer. It’s baseball’s highest compliment, to be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame means a spot in baseball history next to Ruth, Cobb, Williams and Aaron.
A baseball card magazine called Beckett Monthly paid me three cents per word to write that. So you’re looking at $1.02 of literature right there. I’m not sure why I made the artistic decision not to use the first names for Babe, Ty, Ted, and Henry — that would be 12 more cents. But, hey, I was still feeling my way forward.
In all, I had written two stories spec — well, technically, I wrote it on the electric typewriter my mother bought me — called “Future Hall of Famers” and predicted which active players would end up in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
I thought — it might be fun to do that again. So here goes … we’ll start with the National League and do the American League in the Clubhouse on Friday.
I don’t want to over-explain anything — the point for me is to reach inside and find that 19-year-old kid who wrote those original stories — but I will say that I’m going to list them in order of certainty. That is to say, the guys at the top are players I’m SURE will end up in the Hall of Fame, and by the time we get to the bottom, I’m less certain. But I’m still predicting that every player here will, indeed, end up in Cooperstown.
Here we go!
Players Who Will Be Elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
He’s not eligible yet. It doesn’t matter. They’d change the eligibility rules if they had to. Honestly, they should just induct him into the Hall of Fame now. Why wait?
Mookie Betts, Dodgers.
I am currently wearing a Mookie Betts ball and bat necklace — a replica of the one that a 12-year-old boy named Griffin Cantrell gave him before the 2018 season. Mookie didn’t know what to do with that necklace, so he put it on, and he wore it religiously after that, and he had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history.
He has worn some version of the necklace ever since. I will never take it off — or at least won’t take it off until I finish writing this new book. I need all the luck I can get.*
If I were writing this in 1986, like the first time, Mookie’s Hall of Fame case would be a bit less clear-cut. He’s a .291 lifetime hitter, he is still two seasons away from 2,000 hits, and yes, he has the MVP award and six Gold Gloves, and he’s led the league in runs three times, and he’s still just 33 years old, but that wouldn’t feel like a complete case.
But this is one of the good parts of WAR. Sure, WAR as a one-stop shopping metric has its problems, but it’s the best we’ve got, I think, for giving us an outline of the player’s brilliance. Mookie’s combo WAR is 69. He’s already a Hall of Famer, with more to come.
*I just wrote about Mookie for my next book, which (I hope) will come out in 2027 — this might give the topic away, but I suppose that’s OK. There’s also plenty of Mookie in BIG FAN, the book Mike and I wrote that is coming out May 19 (preorder now!).
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
The Hall of Fame offers very specific guidance for how to treat players with singular accomplishments.
Automatic Elections — No automatic elections based on performances such as batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted.
This refers to a very old-fashioned thing — before the Hall of Fame existed, the term was widely used to commemorate those singular outstanding achievements, particularly perfect games. Every time a pitcher threw a perfecto in the majors or minors, a sportswriter would say that he had entered the Baseball Hall of Fame. So the Baseball Writers wanted to be certain, right from the start, to say that the REAL Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown didn’t work like that — you couldn’t just be elected because of one shining moment or one shining year.
I believe, though, that this automatic election rule has encouraged sportswriters to IGNORE the power of those shining moments. There have been, in my mind, four players that the rule most directly impacted.
Don Larsen. As you know, he didn’t throw any old perfect game; he threw one in the World Series. He was, aside from that moment, an obvious non-Hall of Famer, but he still received Hall of Fame votes on 15 different ballots, topping out at 12.1%. I think there’s a chance, if not for the Automatic Election Rule, he’d be in the Hall of Fame.
Roger Maris. His case is much trickier than Larsen’s because hitting 61 home runs to break Babe Ruth’s unbreakable record was obviously a much fuller accomplishment than one perfect day, plus he had a much better overall career than Larsen. He won two MVP awards, a Gold Glove, and was an All-Star four years in a row. He topped out at 43%. I don’t know that the automatic election rule hurt him, but I suspect it might have.
Bill Mazeroski. I have not had a chance yet to write a proper goodbye to Maz, one of the nicest of all Hall of Famers and a man who, by starting Bill Mazeroski’s Preview Magazine, directly impacted my life. Maz hit, perhaps, the most famous home run in baseball history in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. He is also widely regarded as the greatest defensive second baseman and the best ever at turning the double play. That combination did get him up to 42.3% of the vote in his final year on the BBWAA ballot, but no higher. I suspect, again, the automatic election rule encouraged votes to downplay the Hall of Fame value of his singular homer. And when the Veterans Committee voted him into the Hall, it was such a scandal that the Veterans Committee was disbanded.
Joe Carter. He and Maz are the only two to hit World Series clinching walkoff home runs. So there’s that. Carter also drove in 100-plus RBI 10 times — the same as Stan Musial, Willie Mays, and David Ortiz. I’m not saying that this should make him a Hall of Famer, but he got just 2.8% of the vote in his one year on the ballot. I’m pretty sure that if not for the Automatic Election Rule, he would have received at least a little bit more support than that.
I bring this up here because Freddie Freeman has not just one but TWO World Series walk-off home runs. I mean, when you think about his Hall of Fame case, what is that worth? The answer, I suspect, is “almost nothing.” Freeman will get into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot because of the bulk of his career — he will pass 2,500 hits this year, he closes in on 600 doubles and 400 home runs, he’s a nine-time All-Star with an MVP award and 3.52 MVP shares. But, honestly, having two World Series walk-off home runs should mean more than it will.
Juan Soto, Mets
He’s two years away from even being eligible for the Hall of Fame, but he’s going to Cooperstown. By the way, check this out:
Most walks through age 26:
Juan Soto, 896
Mickey Mantle, 799
Eddie Yost, 743
Mel Ott, 704
Mike Trout, 693
Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks
It’s hard to tell how much Arenado has left as a player. But I expect two things:
I expect a bit of a renaissance for him in Arizona.
I expect that he’s a Hall of Famer right now, even if that doesn’t happen.
The numbers are not as straightforward as my expectations — 56 combo WAR doesn’t scream Hall of Fame. But as a three-time home run champion, a 10-time Gold Glover at third base, and one of the most dynamic players we’ve ever seen, I think he’s Cooperstown-bound no matter what happens from here on in.
Francisco Lindor, Mets.
This hamate injury is a bummer — only good things should happen for Lindor. He’s such a beam of sunshine, and has been ever since he came up in 2015. He’s still only 32, and you would expect him to put up some more 6 WAR seasons. But he’s Cooperstown-bound already.
Manny Machado, Padres
I don’t think Machado will end up winning an MVP in his career. He might — heck, he could win one this year — but he seems to have settled in now as a solid 3-4 WAR player who will hit .275, bang somewhere close to 30 home runs, and play good but no longer earth-shattering defense. Doing that for a few more years will likely pump up his career WAR into the 70s, and it’s not impossible that he will challenge 3,000 hits. That will make him a surefire Hall of Famer, but it’s a different kind of Hall of Famer than the first four. He does not yet have his signature moment.
INTERRUPTION: I assume you’ve seen this video of Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski knocking an apple off the head of Cooper Pratt.
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The video is not exactly real. It’s not AI either — it would stink if it were AI. No, Miz and Pratt really did go out there to stage this, and the Brewers team edited in a very cool way. I love it very much. It’s like a staged magic trick.
Bryce Harper, Phillies
I’d say once a month or so, someone will write in to say something like: “I know you keep calling Harper a future Hall of Famer, but I don’t think he’s a lock.” It’s not an unfair point — Harper’s career has been so up and down that as of right now, his 55 combo WAR and 1,800 career hits point to a borderline Hall of Fame case at best. And he definitely looked diminished in 2025. But I’d say this: He’s a two-time MVP. He has been one of the faces of baseball for 14 years. His heights are as high as anybody’s. And I fully expect him to have at least one more monster season, maybe this year. And to the “if he retired tomorrow, would he be a Hall of Famer” question, I’d respond: “He’s not retiring tomorrow.”
Chris Sale, Braves
It will be absolutely fascinating to see what happens with Hall of Famer pitchers over the next decade or so. We saw some crazy movement in this year’s Hall of Fame balloting, where Andy Pettitte (an admitted PED user) and Felix Hernandez (with 169 career wins) both approached 50% of the vote. There’s a real hunger to vote in starting pitchers; the BBWAA has only voted in one this decade (CC Sabathia), and I think most voters think that’s just not enough.
What makes the timing fascinating is that a wave IS coming — but not until 2029, when Zack Greinke will be on the ballot (along with Adam Wainwright, who will get some support, I imagine). A couple of years later, Clayton Kershaw will be on the ballot, and at some point after that, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer will join too. So there will be some obvious first-ballot starting pitchers soon. But not THAT soon, and I’m wondering just how many other starting pitchers will get voted in.
Chris Sale has just 145 career victories. That’s not what should matter — his 58 career WAR offers a more complete picture, as does his 141 career ERA+ — but that victory total is there, and while he is now signed through 2027 (with a club option for 2028), he is almost certain not to get anywhere near 200 victories. If King Felix does get elected, and I think he just might, that will clear the decks for Sale to sail in on the first ballot (see what I did there), because he’s already got a better Hall of Fame case. But if not, yes, I think Sale will still get it, but it might take a bit longer.
INTERRUPTION: We just watched Superman again, and I have to tell you — this movie has the best batch of extras of any movie I’ve ever purchased. We watched every video — a gag reel, a few deleted scenes (the only meh part), one about how they recreated The Daily Planet, one about Krypto, one about how they created the music, on and on — and it was RIVETING. I loved these videos almost as much as I loved the movie. James Gunn is the best.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Yes, I’m betting on him getting healthy and staying healthy, and that’s admittedly a big bet. But he insists that he feels like his old self, and you might remember that his old self hit 41 home runs and stole 73 bases in the same season. I don’t think he’s ever going to steal 70 bases again — he might not ever steal 40 bases again — but we’re talking about a phenomenal hitter with unlimited power and I’m all in on his Hall of Fame future.
Trea Turner, Phillies
OK, I’m out on a limb on this one … but I’m OK with that. Turner’s a bit older than I’d like him to be (he turns 33 at the end of June), and yes, I wish he’d accumulated just a few more wins — his combo WAR is 45 right now. But he’s one of the most exciting players I’ve ever seen, he’s coming off a batting championship, and one of his best years, he still is the fastest player in baseball by Statcast™ Sprint Speed, and I continue to believe that his true epic year is coming.
Paul Skenes, Pirates
Yeah, that’s right, I’m going there. I know it’s silly after 320 innings. I know that this is not very different from predicting that Dwight Gooden would go to the Hall of Fame after his first two years, and we all know that didn’t go the way we wanted. I know it’s tempting fate because pitchers don’t just get hurt sometimes, but all the time. I know, I know, I know. But Paul Skenes is a wonder. And I choose to believe.
Alex Bregman, Cubs
I don’t know what playing on the tainted 2017 Houston Astros will mean for his legacy — though Carlos Beltran’s Hall of Fame election suggests that people are mostly moving on — but Bregman seems to me on a Scott Rolen-like trajectory for the Hall. He is admittedly behind Rolen, who had 12 more WAR by this point in his career, much of which comes down to Rolen’s otherworldly defensive numbers. But Bregman is a good defender too, and he’s widely respected as a leader, and I think he will be great for the Cubs. We’ll see.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
OK, I’m torn on this one. Tatis has already been so many different sorts of players in his still-evolving career. He was the prodigy who came up at age 20 and in his first 143 injury-plagued games hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 29 stolen bases. He was the near-MVP of 2021, when he led the league with 42 home runs in only 130 games and played shortstop, um, creatively.
He missed all of 2022 after a motorcycle injury — nobody was quite sure which one, since he apparently had several — and then was suspended for PED use.
He returned in 2023 and was moved to right field, where he was FANTASTIC, like Roberto Clemente or Al Kaline good, but he hit only .257 with reduced power. Then there was 2024, when he got hurt, and it often looked like he’d rather be anywhere else. Then there was 2025, when he was suddenly a 6-WAR player again, doing everything a player can do — hitting, slugging, running, playing awesome defense.
So who even knows? He just turned 27, and he already has almost 30 WAR. So I’m going to include him on the Hall of Fame list.
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll is such a fantastic player. He has led the league in triples each of the last three years, he had a 30-30 season in 2025, he has twice finished top six in the MVP voting, and he’s only 26. The best is yet to come.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Can I go here? Can I really go here? Shoot, why not? He has 340 career home runs — that’s as many as Reggie had at his age, more than David Ortiz, Mark McGwire, and even Aaron Judge. You’d never guess it, but Schwarbs is almost a full year younger than Judge. I think he gets to 500 home runs, it’s not impossible he gets to 600 home runs, and he’s such a delight, yes, I’m going to make the call.
Players on the Radar
I can’t predict the Hall of Fame for them … but I’m definitely intrigued:
Matt Olson, Braves
He will turn 32 just before Opening Day, and he kind of seems to be on a Freddie Freeman trajectory. He has 34 combo WAR and is coming off another superb season where he led the league in doubles.
Christian Yelich, Brewers
I just want this so badly for him — he was just SO good in 2018 and 2019. The last few years have been a struggle, mostly, but he’s a beloved figure, he’s coming off a healthy season where he drove in 100 RBI, and there’s some time for him as a 34-year-old.
Elly De La Cruz, Reds
He’s only 24, so he’s all speculation and promise now. But you can’t take your eyes off of him.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
There’s no reason to have him on the radar this early in his career — but his postseason was so impressive in so many ways that I can’t help but wonder just how great his career will be.
Blake Snell, Dodgers
You kind of have to have a two-time Cy Young winner with the highest strikeout-per-nine in baseball history on the radar, but honestly, I just don’t think he can stay healthy enough long enough. I hope I’m wrong.
Xander Bogaerts, Padres
No, it probably won’t work out. But he’s 33 with 43 career combo WAR — I mean, if he could again be the player who annually put up 5-6 WAR seasons pretty much every season in Boston … so it’s not impossible.
Friday: The American League