Friday Rewind: Red-Hot Dodgers, Red-Hot Julio and More

OK, let’s get to the super/extensive WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL tour and preorder updates and then we can talk about the red-hot Dodgers, a red-hot Julio and a little state of baseball talk. I also will have to leave briefly because, you know, I’ve got to talk with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, that’s right, I did the name drop.

As always, if you would like to skip way ahead, nobody’s going to judge you.

We are a little more than two weeks away from the book release day of Sept. 5, and it’s getting real around here. I’m doing lots and lots of interviews and podcasts now — six on Thursday — with many more on the calendar over the next month. I know it’s super-early but I have to say: I’m really loving the interviews. Part of that is because (at least as of now) I absolutely love talking about this book, love talking about the moments in it, the process of writing it, etc. But there’s something else: The book seems to inspire people to tell me why THEY love baseball. They want to talk about their favorite moments, their first autographs, their relationship with a friend or parent, the incredible game they were lucky enough to attend.

This is EXACTLY why I wrote this book. This is the EXACT reaction I was hoping for when I was sitting alone in this office and trying to put just the right words together. I want this book to be the start of a conversation, not the end. And I think that conversation is just so utterly and completely happy. We could use a few more happy conversations in the world.

Barnes & Noble promotion about to end

If you would like to get TWENTY-FIVE PERCENT off the book through Barnes & Noble, I think today is the last day. It’s possible that the offer will go on through the weekend, but I wouldn’t risk it. Just type in CATCH25 in the “Apply Coupon Code” box.

Preorder the book, get free stuff

If you preorder the book from anywhere — from Amazon to Rainy Day Books and all stores in between — you can sign up here to get exclusive additional content from the book. This will include an essay I wrote about the most remarkable baseball moment of my Cleveland childhood and one from Mike Schur about the greatest baseball game he ever attended. Again, you can sign up here.

And now, here’s the first two weeks of the tour with some key updates. I’d love to see you on the road:

Sept. 5 with Bob Costas in Spring Lake, N.J.!

OK, the tour is now coming into full focus — and more to the point, my limitations as just one person are now coming into full focus. There’s a whole second phase, and I’m sure we’ll try to add some stuff (we hear you, Portland and Minneapolis and Chicago!) but as of right now, this will be my New York-area event. I realize it’s about an hour outside of the city, but I’d love to see you there. And, I mean, it’s Bob Costas! Get Tickets

Sept. 6 with Alex Edelman in Newport!

And this is my Boston-area event. Again, I know, it’s an hour drive from Boston, but I’d love to see you there — and you should know that Alex, in addition to being a Broadway star and utterly hilarious, worked for the Red Sox and is a gigantic Red Sox fan. I imagine there will be lots and lots of Red Sox talk. Get Tickets

[Whoops, there’s Patrick. Be right back.]

Sept. 7 with Gerald Early in St. Louis!

Look, Fredbird is going to be there. I don’t really know what else needs to be said. I mean, if you’re not impressed with the incredible Professor Gerald Early, one of the most thoughtful and important voices in America, then again, I will tell you, Fredbird is going to be there, and the Cardinals are going to be doing some giveaways and I promise at least one mention of the Albert Pujols home run against the Astros. Get Tickets

Sept. 8 with Michael Schur in Kansas City!

It’s going to be so awkward when I finally tell Mike that I wrote a book. This event is not for another three weeks, but, honestly, from what I hear, I’d get tickets now. Get Tickets

Sept. 9 with Jeff Garlin in Cincinnati!

I love Joseph-Beth Booksellers. It’s just one of the calmest places I’ve been. When I lived in Cincinnati, I go there for the Zen of it all. I suspect it will be a bit livelier than normal with Jeff — I’m so looking forward to this one. And then afterward, we’re all going to the Reds game to cheer on Joey Votto. Get Tickets

Sept. 12 with Molly Knight (plus Michael Schur and Nick Offerman) in Los Angeles!

OK, so, we are doing this event for the amazing Chevalier’s Bookstore — and the original plan was to have the event in Chevalier’s itself. But the event sold out in, I believe, 14 minutes. That just wouldn’t do. We want to include everybody! So now, we’re moving the event to the Ebell of Los Angeles! Details are still being finalized, so if you want more information, I’d recommend reaching out to Chevalier’s and as soon as I have ticket information, I’ll let you know.

Sept. 13 in Santa Rosa!

I’m working on a super-special guest for this event at Copperfield’s. I don’t know if it’s going to work out because — spoiler alert — the Giants are playing an afternoon game on the 13th. He’s going to try. And if it does work out, well, this just might be the most special event of them all. I’ll add that this super-special guest is responsible for one of the moments in the book and, I’ll just say it, probably the most important moment in baseball history. Get Tickets

Sept. 14 with Farhan Zaidi in San Francisco!

This is a private book party that the good people of Substack are throwing for me at Harlan Records. We have room for a limited number of JoeBlogs readers, and I think we’ve pretty much filled up with all the requests. But if you want to get on the waiting list, please send a request to my amazing assistant, Jennifer. It’s worth it, I think: Numerous people have requested tickets but admitted they are not sure that they can make it. I’d love to see you, and it’s going to be an amazing time with Farhan — heck, Molly Knight herself is planning to shoot up from L.A.

Sept. 16 with Bill James at the Kansas Book Festival in Topeka!

I adore book festivals. They are just so much fun, so many incredible authors; I’m doing a few festivals over the next six-to-eight months, and I cannot wait. I personally am super-excited to see my friend Candice Millard talk about her incredible book, River of the Gods. Here’s what’s fun: Candice will follow Bill and me in the Washburn Rooms — we’re on at 1 p.m., Candice is on at 2. And it’s all totally free, by the way. Information.

OK, let’s get to some baseball!

Red-Hot Dodgers

I think I’ve told you about my friend who is obsessed with his beloved Dodgers finally firing Dave Roberts. The other day, I gave him a copy of my book and he said, “I know what the 51st moment for this book will be — the day the Dodgers fire Roberts.” At this point, it’s a bit of an act with him, I think, but he really does have an ongoing beef with Roberts.

I now want to show you the best winning percentages for managers since 1950 with at least 1,000 games:

1. Dave Roberts, .630

2. Al Lopez, .584

3. Earl Weaver, .583

4. Walter Alston, .558

5. Brian Snitker, .557

That’s a pretty wide gap, no? Yeah, I know, the Dodgers have the best system and the most money and a super-smart front office and blah blah blah, it’s all true, but the Dodgers also had not won 100 games since 1974 and Roberts’ teams have won 100 games FOUR TIMES in the six full seasons that he has managed.

Say what you will about Roberts, but it’s hard to argue with the results. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

And they just might win 100 games again this year (they need to go 26-16 in their last 42 games), and that’s a pretty remarkable turn of events after this team seemed to be struggling with injuries and general ennui back in June. Since Independence Day, they are 26-8, and this month they have lost just once in 16 games.

Obviously, the Dodgers are being powered by their two mega-stars, Freddie Freeman (.335/.415/.581 with 44 doubles) and Mookie Betts (.295/.394/.579 with 31 homers), who are each having MVP seasons. But much of the rest has meant putting duct tape over weaknesses such as shortstop and fourth/fifth starters and also pushing through injuries. On paper, the Padres sure look like the better team. The Dodgers currently have a 17-game lead on the Padres.

I’m not saying that Roberts is the REASON for the Dodgers’ success, but he has to be a huge part of it. I don’t think it’s easy at all to pilot talented teams with championship expectations in one of America’s biggest cities. Roberts carries it well. Yes, he has had some postseason disappointments, and there continue to be questions about his individual game management. The Dodgers will not go into this postseason as the favorite, not with the Braves playing the way they’re playing, but they’re very much in the conversation. They always are with Dave Roberts managing. He’s either the luckiest manager who ever lived or he’s actually really good at his job.

Hey, if you feel like it, I’d love if you’d share this post with your friends!

Red-Hot Julio

On Aug. 3, Julio Rodríguez went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and he was hitting just .248 for the season and things felt kind of blah, which is the last thing ANY of us expected to say about Julio. He wasn’t just Rookie of the Year last year, he was this dynamic presence, the sort of player who changes the entire complexion of a franchise. I’ve been thinking a bit about that — players who were not just great but who literally changed the course of their franchise.

George Brett comes to mind, of course — he altered baseball in Kansas City.

Kirby Puckett, I think, fits that bill.

Buster Posey, of course.

I’ll put together a full list, maybe that should be a BR Challenge.

Anyway, that’s what Julio seemed like. And he was kind of scuffling along, the team was kind of scuffling along.

And in his last 12 games, he’s hitting .436/.483/.746 with eight doubles, three homers, four steals and 20 RBIs. Over the last two games, Rodríguez has nine hits and seven RBIs. The Mariners are 9-3 in those 12 games and a half-game out of the last wild-card spot. And it all feels fantastic again.

It’s a good reminder that as long as you THINK the baseball season is … it’s longer. Here in late August, it FEELS like the season is beginning to wind down, but it really isn’t. The Mariners still have 41 games left, that’s more than a quarter of the season. Julio was hitting .248 a couple of weeks ago. He’s hitting .269 now. He might be hitting .300 when the season ends, who even knows?

Anyway, the Mariners were my World Series pick before the season began. Keep hope alive, friends.

Happy Friday! The Rewind is free so everyone can enjoy it. Just a reminder that Joe Blogs is a reader-supported newsletter, and I’d love and appreciate your support.

State of the Game

Let’s dispense with the awards this week and talk a little bit about the state of the game.

Time of game: We’re still at an average time of 2:41, the fastest average time of game since 1984. I cannot say enough about how much fresher baseball feels this year… to me, the pitch clock has no downside. I don’t ever think about it when watching games now, and my mind has gotten so used to the more energetic and brisker pace that I simply cannot fathom why we put up with the sluggishness of the last decade.

You know what the feeling is like for me? It’s like — and you fellow glasses wearers will relate to this, I think — when you clean your glasses. Suddenly, everything around you is so much clearer and more vibrant, it’s just an improvement in absolutely every way.

The funny thing is just the other day, somebody I know emailed me to say how much he doesn’t like the pitch clock. I was actually happy to get the email because I was like: “What could anyone have against the pitch clock? They WANT to go back to wearing glasses with smudges on them?” Alas, the email didn’t provide an especially satisfying answer to that question; it was more like “Baseball is not supposed to have a clock; the game is not supposed to be artificially sped up,” and more general principles like that. I deeply believe baseball is meant to be enjoyed however you want to enjoy it, but I will admit those reasons don’t do much for me. They sound like the sort of thing someone would say when they don’t watch a lot of baseball. And, in this case, my friend does not. I’d say he ROMANTICIZES baseball more than he watches it.

Stolen bases: Teams are stealing more bases (.71 per game) than at any point since 1999. Again, there doesn’t feel like a lot of downside to me about this — I suppose one could make the argument that because of the two-step-off rule, it has become too hard to throw out base stealers:

Top base stealing percentages in baseball history (full seasons):

1. 2023, 79.7%

2. 2021, 75.7%

3. 2022, 75.4%

4. 2007, 74.4%

5. 2012, 74.0%

There’s something I find fascinating about those percentages. Moneyball came out in 2003, and it made the point multiple times that stolen bases are wildly overrated, and Billy Beane didn’t care about them at all. As time went on, this sort of blended into a new kind of conventional thinking: Stolen bases are a net positive only if you can be successful 75% of the time. Less than 75% of the time, and the outs given away outweigh the extra bases.

So teams focused their energies on being successful 75% of the time. This led to a certain kind of baseball — more conservative, less risky. And sure enough, as you can see from the last 10 years, teams really were successful about 75% of the time — 73% to be exact.

But in baseball, efficiency is often the enemy of excitement. The fans’ interest in stolen base attempts had not gone down simply because teams found them to be less effective than previously thought. So how do you get more stolen bases when the risk doesn’t fit into team’s gameplans? Well, this is what football faced with the forward pass in the late 1970s. Teams did not want to throw the ball because of the risk involved — the Darrell Royal quote* “when you throw the ball, three things can happen and two of them are bad” was very much in play. But people LIKED when teams threw the ball, so the NFL changed some blocking and coverage rules to make throwing the ball less risky.

*The quote has often been attributed to Woody Hayes; hilariously, even Royal himself attributed it to Woody Hayes. But when you go back and look at the archives, the quote was attributed to Royal many times before Hayes ever said it publicly.

In this spirit, the two-step-offs rule does two things: One, it eliminates throws to first, which were boring. And two, it makes stealing bases less risky and encourages teams to do it more. I’m for it.

Banning of the shift: The impact of the banning of the shift is not easily seen. Batting averages are a bit up from the last three years, but still down from 2019 and before. You know, Baseball America had a story last September that showed banning the shift had almost NO impact on batted ball outcomes.

Now, the people at MLB said this made sense, because minor league teams don’t shift nearly as much as major league teams do, and there was a real sense and hope that the banning of the shift would increase balls in play (as batters shortened up to take advantage of the holes in the defense) and would increase hits in general.

Balls in play are NOT up. That was probably magical thinking anyway, but we can now see that balls in play are actually down from 2022.

As for hits being up … well, batting averages are up five points from 2022, even with more strikeouts, so maybe there’s something (maybe). But a lot of that is an increase in home runs, which obviously are unaffected by the shift. Singles are essentially flat.

Logically, it makes sense that banning the shift would increase offense — I mean, teams wouldn’t have shifted so much if they didn’t believe they were getting tangible benefits from it. But I’m just not seeing much here.

I will say that the game is more aesthetically pleasing without the shift — it looked more like the baseball many of us grew up with. That’s not nothing, but it doesn’t really get at the big problem which is …

STRIKEOUTS STRIKEOUTS STRIKEOUTS! For the sixth straight season, there will be more strikeouts than hits, and it’s just not the best. As one baseball person told me, “The strikeout rate needs to come WAY down.” It really does. But in order for that to happen, baseball will need to do some things that might feel kind of drastic. Dramatic roster moves? Hard changes to the rules? Reworking the zone? Moving the mound back? From what I’m picking up around the game, there isn’t much of an appetite for taking on that fight right now. The focus of the powers that be seems to be on the automated strike zone, and how to slowly and gracefully bring that into the game.

Anyway, nobody’s too interested in fighting new fights because …

Attendance is up: It isn’t just up, it’s up 9%, the biggest jump in 20 years. And it’s up across baseball. Of the 30 teams, 28 are either flat or up this year — teams like Philadelphia, Cleveland, Texas, Cincinnati, Toronto and Baltimore are up more than 5,000 fans per game. The only two teams that are quantifiably down in 2023 are the Washington Nationals, who have nothing to offer at the moment; and the Chicago White Sox, who are kind of a fiasco.

It’s interesting, I was talking to someone in television, and he was saying that he’s not seeing anything like the same sort of jump in TV ratings or TV interest. He says the shorter games might make a difference when the playoffs come around, but right now, there’s a tangible difference in GOING to the quicker-paced games, but not necessarily one in watching the games on television.

JoeBlogs Week in Review

Monday: Wrote a little bit about Yankees fans and this year’s struggles. I might have an addendum for next week, inspired by my friend, the great magician Jamy Ian Swiss.

Tuesday: The Rangers are for real.

Wednesday: Is this Braves lineup the best ever?

Wednesday: Special guest post from Narratively — a really special story called “The Greatest Game Ever Played Behind Barbed Wire.”

Thursday: Brilliant Reader Challenge matching up the all-short and all-tall teams.