Friday Rewind: Manfred Is Not the Man

Let’s begin the Friday Rewind with some talk about Rob Manfred. We’ll get into a little update about how baseball is being played so far in 2023. I’ll tell you about a couple of cool responses I got from yesterday’s Brilliant Reader Challenges. We’ll get into some fun updates about WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL (at least I think they’re fun).

Let’s go! As always, I would love to have you join our little community.

Why Is Rob Manfred So Bad at This?

Rob Manfred decided to give a press conference on Thursday, which means he said a whole bunch of dumb, obviously false and kind of cruel things. This seems to happen whenever Manfred decides to give a press conference. I don’t quite get it. Does he not prepare? Does he not know that he’s terrible on the fly? Does he not trust anyone to advise him?

Remember when he called the World Series trophy “a piece of metal”? I mean, that was sort of the quintessential Rob Manfred press conference moment because he faced what was the most obvious question imaginable — a simple question about whether or not the Astros’ World Series title would be marked with an asterisk or taken away — and he said, “Asking for a piece of metal back seems like a futile act.” It was so dumb, but more than dumb, it was just so easily avoidable. I mean, do a little studying for the test, man!

So on Thursday, when asked about the A’s reverse boycott — when 30,000 people went to that dump of a stadium to make a statement about how much they loved baseball and how badly they want to keep the A’s — the answer was SO easy. I mean, you say, “There are so many good baseball fans in Oakland, and I feel for them as we go through this process but …” and then you blah blah blah however you want about the rest. No, nobody’s going to buy that you actually care about the Oakland fans, but you’re the commissioner of baseball, and you make the token effort to salute fans for loving baseball and their team, right?

What could be easier? I mean, it’s not like Manfred was surprised by the question, right?

This is what he said: “It was great. It’s great to see what is, this year, almost an average Major League Baseball crowd in the facility for one night. That’s a great thing."

As Cameron says to Mr. Rooney in “Ferris Bueller”: “Pardon my French, but you’re an …”

This is what you say as commissioner of baseball when 30,000 baseball fans make a desperate plea? In Oakland, you have a filthy rich owner — the son of the Gap founders — who has basically been following the “Major League” plot, who has been cashing those sweet revenue-sharing checks, who has let his already creaky stadium collapse unto itself, who has let his already creaky team collapse unto itself, and the fans show up to say, “Hey, this isn’t fair! We love baseball! We’ve supported the A’s for almost 60 years! There are owners who would keep the team here in Oakland! Don’t do this to us!”

And the commissioner of baseball decides that mocking them is the way to go?

Manfred + microphones = trouble. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

On a more businessy note, the commissioner said this:

“I think that the real question is, what is it that Oakland was prepared to do? There is no Oakland offer, OK? They never got to a point where they had a plan to build a stadium at any site. And it’s not just John Fisher. You don’t build a stadium based on the club activity alone. The community has to provide support, and, you know, at some point, you come to the realization, it’s just not going to happen.”

And that sounds like it could be true … until you realize it isn’t. It’s worth reprinting the whole response from the Oakland mayor’s office:

“This is just totally false. There was a very concrete proposal under discussion and Oakland had gone above and beyond to clear hurdles, including securing funding for infrastructure, providing an environmental review and working with other agencies to finalize approvals. The reality is the A’s ownership had insisted on a multibillion-dollar, 55-acre project that included a ballpark, residential, commercial and retail space. In Las Vegas, for whatever reason, they seem satisfied with a 9-acre leased ballpark on leased land. If they had proposed a similar project in Oakland, we feel confident a new ballpark would already be under construction. Oakland showed its commitment to the A’s and that is why the A’s belong in Oakland.”

Look, I’m sure the Oakland side, like the Manfred/John Fisher side, is telling their story their way, leaving out inconvenient details and their own failings in the negotiations and so on. Messes like this are rarely one-sided.

But there is no doubt in my mind that the core point in the Oakland mayor’s statement — that John Fisher totally changed the rules of engagement because his one and only goal is to get the heck out of Oakland and get to Las Vegas — is true. That’s obviously the top goal of Rob Manfred and the baseball owners, too. They want a team in Vegas. Every sport does.

So how does baseball get a team to Vegas? Right: This is the way. Sure, there has been idle talk about baseball expanding, but that isn’t realistic, not with so many markets already struggling to connect with their fan bases. Look, they’re making veiled threats in Milwaukee if the stadium doesn’t get improved. They’re trying to build a $2 billion downtown stadium in Kansas City. We all know the Rays’ mess. The Marlins’ mess. Baseball’s not expanding right now.

So a team has to MOVE to Vegas for MLB to get in there. And John Fisher jumped to the front of the line to do that because, of course, he did; it totally aligns with everything he’s ever been as A’s owner (if you want to read a great takedown of John Fisher — and I know you do — Molly Knight has you covered). And Manfred is totally backing Fisher because he and the owners want that Vegas team and some more of that sweet gambling cash. Deep Throat in “All the President’s Men” had it right. Follow the money.

According to Evan Drellich, this question was posed to Manfred: “Is there any worry about moving from the 10th-largest TV market to the 40th and building a 30,000-seat ballpark that would be the smallest and turn a team into a perpetual receiver of revenue sharing?”

For this one, Manfred pleaded the fifth. He needs more specifics. He will talk about it publicly later. Sure, he’s going to be cautious talking about this one because the question is dead on. If it were not for the gambling money, Vegas would not be a viable MLB market.

The commissioner will deal with that one later. Bryce Harper, who is from Vegas, and is really skeptical that Vegas fans will naturally support the team because they grew up being Yankees fans or Cubs fans or White Sox fans and are not about to change. The commissioner will deal with that later, too.

As for ripping the Oakland fans for their passion and pain, yeah, Rob Manfred will beat the Christmas rush and do that right now. Why is he so bad at this?

Hey, if you feel like it, I’d love if you’d share this post with your friends (and your Dad)!

Baseball Updates!

OK, let’s see where the game stands right now, middle of June:

Time of game: 2:40. This has been the consistent time throughout the year — and it’s 26 minutes quicker than the game was last year, 31 minutes quicker than it was in 2021, and the fastest pace since 1984.

Attendance: Up almost 700 fans per game! That might not sound like a lot, but it’s essentially the first increase in attendance in more than a decade. Look at this:

2012: 30,451 average attendance
2013: Down 355
2014: Down 106
2015: Up 4
2016: Down 218
2017: Down 223
2018: Down 1,249
2019: Down 456
2020-2021: COVID
2022: Down 1,637
2023: Up 678

Hey, it’s something — and remember, attendance is up even with everything that’s happening in Oakland. I think the speedier pace is bringing in some more people. I think some of the new stars are resonating with fans. Even Rays attendance is up more than 3,000 fans per game.

Batting average: Up five points! Sure, a .248 batting average is still very low by historical standards, but it will probably tick up a little bit in the summer months and, anyway, it’s a lot better than last year’s .243.

I’d be interested in seeing baseball’s data on this, but a cursory look at the numbers suggests that the increase in batting average might not have all that much to do with the new rules. For instance, the banning of the shift has been much-talked-about, but singles per game are basically the same as last year. And the idea that having pitchers work more quickly would increase the number of balls in play doesn’t seem to be working out — balls in play are roughly the same as last year, and strikeouts are actually up.

So where are the extra hits coming from? Well, doubles and homers are both up pretty substantially. I asked Tom Tango what he attributed this to, and he pointed me to this average exit velocity chart going back to 2020:

2020: 88.0 mph
2021: 88.1 mph
2022: 88.1 mph
2023: 88.7 mph

OK, that seems like something — a .6 mph jump is pretty substantial. Players are hitting the ball harder (even though the distance traveled is the same). There will, of course, be people who will say that the baseball is different; I don’t know about that. MLB uses hundreds of thousands of baseballs. What I do know is that for some reason in 2023, batters seem to be hitting the ball harder, and more homers and doubles are happening.

Biggest surprises (positive): Texas, Baltimore, Arizona.

The Rangers’ plan to spend big money on a new double-play combination and hope that the rest worked itself out didn’t seem especially sensible … but so far in 2023, it’s working. Corey Seager is hitting .347/.411/.626, Marcus Semien leads the American League in runs scored, and the Rangers are in first place! Will it last? I predicted at the beginning of the season that it wouldn’t, that the Rangers would get off to a crazy hot start, people would start calling new manager Bruce Bochy a genius, and then Texas would slowly fade into the .500-or-so team that I think they are. But I hope I’m wrong. I hope this lasts all year.

So much of the Orioles’ surprising early success is being credited to catcher Adley Rutschman, which is good because Rutschman is super-cool and, in my view, will become one of the faces of baseball. But the credit in Baltimore has to be spread around. Rookie Gunnar Henderson has been slugging .625 over the last month. Austin Hayes is hitting .300 with power. Cedric Mullins is hurt right now, but he’s one of the best players the league. Guys like Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle have been contributing. It’s been awesome to watch.

Speaking of awesome, Arizona’s Corbin Carroll has moved from virtual lock as Rookie of the Year to real-live MVP candidate. I mean, Ronald Acuña Jr. is doing absurd things in Atlanta, but don’t sleep on Carroll, who’s now hitting .306/.391/.586 with 14 homers and 19 steals. Yikes. The Diamondbacks are totally feeding off his energy — they’re third in the league in runs, and they’re currently in first place, two games up on the Dodgers.

Biggest surprises (negative): The Mets, San Diego, the Central Divisions,

OK, look, if Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both going to stink — and so far, they have both mostly stunk — the Mets have no chance. None. This team has lots of problems, make no mistake. They are 10th in the league in runs scored. Francisco Lindor is having a pretty dreadful season. Their bullpen obviously misses the Great Edwin Diaz. But, I mean, the Mets’ entire reason for being revolves around Scherzer and Verlander and what was supposed to be $86,666,666 worth of pitching awesomeness. Instead, they have been $86,666,666 of injury-marred blech. That won’t work.

I don’t know why the Padres can’t get out of their own way. Believe it or not, San Diego is No. 1 in the league in ERA. And they still have a losing record. How? Juan Soto has looked a whole lot more like Juan Soto lately. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 14 homers and 11 steals in 48 games. Xander Bogaerts has been good — not great, but good. And yet, somehow, they’re TWELFTH in the league in runs scored. This team makes absolutely no sense to me.

I don’t know if it’s going to be this way all year, but the AL Central and NL Central are both dumpster fires with very mediocre .500 teams at the top. I didn’t include the Cardinals or Guardians or Brewers or White Sox in my biggest negative surprises because at some point you can’t be surprised by how bad these two divisions are. On the bright side, I am hoping it will lead to super-fun divisional races featuring the Pirates and Reds and Twins and Guardians. At this point, I’m rooting for chaos.

WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL Update

I actually have a couple of very cool updates … and then, one more time, I’ll promote our Father’s Day inscription deal.

Update No. 1: It looks like I’m going to read the audiobook — or at least the bulk of the audiobook. Whoa! So, you may or may not know this (and probably don’t care), but I’ve never read any of my audiobooks. I’ve been advised again and again that it’s SUPER hard to read the book, and it’s better left to professionals. I’ve been well served that way, Cary Hite did a wonderful job with The Baseball 100, David Sadzin was incredible for The Soul of Baseball, etc.

But, well, a few things led me to my decision to read this one. First, this really is an intensely personal book for me. I’ve tried to explain this as we get closer to the publication date, but it’s probably not something I CAN explain. It’s just something you’ll see when the book comes out. Even though this book is, on the surface, a countdown of baseball’s magical moments, it’s a book that comes from a place deep in my heart. And the more we talked about it, the more I thought I should read it.

Second, I will not be reading it alone. I’ll have a co-reader. I can’t tell you who that co-reader is yet, because details are being finalized, but let’s just say I’m SO excited about my fellow reader, and the contrast they will bring, and I think many of you will be as well.

Third, yeah, I’ve always wanted to try reading my book. I go in with my eyes open. I texted my pal Nick Offerman (name drop!) to ask for reading advice, and he left me a five-minute voice memo with all sorts of specifics (eat green apple slices!) and an overriding warning to not underestimate how hard this will be.

Update No. 2: We’re about to announce our first batch of dates for the WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL Tour! I’m reaching out to some pretty incredible people to have conversations with on the tour; a lot of it is in flux and will need to be finalized, but it’s going to be a whole lot of fun and I can’t wait to see you on the road.

And, yes, here’s my last mention of the Father’s Day preorder deal at Rainy Day Books. Through Sunday, if you preorder WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL from Rainy Day, I will sign the book and inscribe it however you like. You probably know, I’m trying to break Mike Schur’s Rainy Day Books preorder record, because it just isn’t right that he has the preorder record in my home bookstore (especially because I helped him set up the whole thing, helped him execute the whole thing, and then he gave me COVID).

This deal really does end on Sunday. After Sunday, you can still preorder the book from Rainy Day and it will still be signed and you will get a cool inscription, but it won’t be personalized, and you won’t get to choose the words. So for the last time, here’s the link!

Brilliant Reader Challenge Responses

I hope you caught Thursday’s Brilliant Reader Challenges. It was — I have to say — pretty epic, some 4,000 words wherein I ranked the Cleveland Browns quarterbacks since 1999, tried to update the “Homer at the Bat” team for 2023, wrote how I would fix the Royals and talked about a few of the greatest partial seasons in baseball history.

The great Joe Mantegna responded to the “Simpsons” team: “Since I’ve been Fat Tony on the Simpsons for 32 years now, I can appreciate that lineup. Of course, Fat Tony will be running book somewhere in the bleachers.”

Several of you responded to the partial-season challenge by pointing out that I badly missed when I left out Hurricane Bob Hazle’s amazing 41-game stretch in 1957. I concede the miss and, in penance, will write a whole thing next week on Hazle’s miraculous mini-season.

Bill James responded to the partial-season challenge, too, by pointing out that I missed George Selkirk’s spectacular 78-game season in 1938. I will print Bill’s response here:

George Selkirk, 1937.   78 games, hit .328 with 18 homers, 68 RBI. Through 53 games he was a hitting .344 with 17 homers and an OPS over 1.000, in fact over 1.100. In his 54th game (July 1, 1937) he injured his shoulder making a diving catch in the outfield, and was out until late August. After his return he hit just .259 in 24 games, with 1 homer.  Teammate Joe DiMaggio hit .346 with 46 and 167, but at the time of the injury Selkirk was having a better year than DiMaggio was.

I wanted to show you that email in its entirety for two reasons. One, it’s Bill, so you needed to see the whole thing. But two, I wanted you to see that Bill is so old-school, he still puts two spaces after a period.

Brilliant Reader Doug Weil responded to the Cleveland Browns quarterback countdown by asking me to rank the top Browns’ quarterbacks going back not to 1999, but all the way back to the beginning in 1946. It’s only fair. Here’s the top five:

1. Otto Graham. Ten seasons. Ten championships games.

2. Brian Sipe. My first true football hero, and the league MVP in 1980.

3. Bernie Kosar. Another hero; I still have a Bernie Kosar football around here.

4. Frank Ryan. Probably should be ahead of Kosar, but he’s before my time.

5. Bill Nelsen. Just an old-fashioned football guy who was always in pain.

Also, if you want some more Joe Blogs highlights from this week:

Monday: I wrote about Novak Djokovic and him winning Grand Slam No. 23.

Tuesday: A super-fun (I think) Father’s Day extravaganza.