Friday Rewind: Flying High
The Baltimore Orioles are currently fifth in the American League in runs, ninth in the league in ERA … and they have the best record in the league. It’s pretty magical. They don’t have a viable MVP candidate. They don’t really have a Cy Young candidate (though I suspect Félix Bautista will get some down-ballot support).
When you look at the team as a whole — nothing stands out. They don’t hit home runs, they don’t steal bases, they don’t strike out batters, they don’t have exceptional control, they don’t play elite defense.
They just win, you know?
So how the heck are they doing this? Baseball is a mystery, isn’t it?
First thing you can say is: The Orioles are winning the close games. They are 28-14 in games decided by two runs or less. But how? Well, certainly, the bullpen is playing its part. Bautista is actually having a better season than Edwin Diaz had for the Mets last year — 47 innings, 21 hits, 3 home runs, 91 strikeouts, five wins, 26 saves, it’s wild. Yennier Cano (1.53 ERA, 2 home runs allowed), Mike Baumann (somehow he has a 6-0 record) and Bryan Baker (48 Ks in 40 innings) and Danny Coulombe (41 Ks in 33 innings) give this team crazy confidence that if they can get a lead into the late innings, they will win.
There’s a stat I really like a lot — what does a team do when they take a lead into the sixth inning? What I like so much about that particular question is that it’s multilayered. All teams — even the Royals and Athletics — win more games than they lose when they take a lead into the sixth. The overall winning percentage with a lead going into the sixth is a healthy .807.
So the two questions are: (1) How many times do you take a lead into the sixth, and (2) How efficient are you at finishing the job?
The A’s and Royals, unsurprisingly, are dead last in the league in the number of times they have taken leads into the sixth inning (just 28 times apiece). They’re ALSO dead last in efficiency. The Royals have won only 64% of those games. The Athletics — a miserable 57%.
The Orioles have taken a lead into the sixth 43 times. That’s not super-elite, but it’s in the top third:
Most leads entering the sixth:
59: Rangers
55: Rays and Braves
47: Astros
46: Dodgers and Padres
43: Orioles, Marlins, Mariners
But the Orioles have been the best in baseball at converting those sixth-inning leads. They are 40-3 when leading going into the sixth.
Best winning percentage when leading going into the sixth:
Orioles, .930
Red Sox, .917
Phillies, .897
Dodgers, .891
Reds, .868
In other words, the Orioles have squeezed five or six extra wins out of the late innings — and that’s pretty much the difference between the Orioles and Blue Jays.
I’d also say that the Orioles, because they’re so young and surprising, are bringing a certain energy to the ballpark every day that makes them tough to beat. It’s not something I can quantify, but it really does remind me of the mid-2010s Royals, when a bunch of kids just kind of believed they were good no matter what the evidence said.
The Orioles have two young players in Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson who have a chance to become megastars, and they’re awfully good right now, and Anthony Santander is mashing doubles and home runs and Ryan O’Hearn is slugging .500 and Kyle Bradish has been pitching lights-out baseball since the middle of May and that bullpen is stout and every day these guys seem to believe, more and more, that they’re the best team around.
It’s fun to watch.
Hey, if you feel like it, I’d love if you’d share this post with your friends!
Judge Getting Closer to Return! Really!
This place wouldn’t be a full-service Yankee-loathing newsletter if we didn’t pause to talk about the utter fiasco in the Bronx. The Yankees have lost eight of 10, they’re barely over .500, they’re in last place in the American League East, Anthony Rizzo has not homered since mid-June, and the Aaron Judge news has been a daily drip of nothing.
June 25: “I expect to be back,” Judge says.
June 28: Judge takes the first step toward a return by playing catch.
June 30: Unnamed person says Judge might be back shortly after All-Star Break.
July 1: Judge still playing catch, timeline for return is “unclear.”
July 10: Judge skips All-Star Game festivities to focus on rehab.
July 15: Judge takes batting practice! But he admits toe “still not healed.”
July 18: Aaron Boone says Judge is "getting close” and doesn’t rule out a return in a week or so.
July 19: Judge runs the bases!
Talk about the drip-drip-drip of the news cycle. You understand it, though. The Yankees without Judge are not a good baseball team. There is not a single other person in that lineup who worries you as an opponent; the Yankees can fire all the hitting coaches in the world and this lineup ain’t scoring runs. The rotation after Gerrit Cole is somewhere between meh and bleh. The bullpen is good, but not THAT good. This is just a poorly constructed team.
Now Judge — a healthy Judge — is good enough to single handedly change the Yankee dynamic, at least somewhat. I do believe that. I hear he’s close to returning.
One other point: Though there are so many things beyond his control, I cannot see manager Aaron Boone surviving this season unless things completely reverse. And across town, I cannot see Buck Showalter surviving this season unless things completely reverse. The last time the Mets and Yankees fired managers in the same offseason, it was after the 2017 season, and the teams ended up with Boone and Mickey Callaway, neither one a splashy hire. I wonder if the thinking will be different this time around.
Happy Friday! The Rewind is free so everyone can enjoy it. Just a reminder that Joe Blogs is a reader-supported newsletter, and I’d love and appreciate your support.
WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL Update
Lots and lots and lots of things happening with WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL, which will be out in 46 days — Sept. 5. Honestly, it’s hard for me to even keep up, which is, well, an incredible and also confusing feeling. Here’s some of the latest:
Starred Review from Library Journal!
I’ve explained the starred concept before — the trade publications will put a star on books to highlight those of “exceptional merit.” It’s a real honor and a pretty rare thing. I remember that my first book, The Soul of Baseball, got a starred review from one of the trades and I was floating for weeks afterward.
WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL, incredibly, has received starred reviews from Kirkus, Publisher’s Weekly and Booklist, an absolutely mind-blowing thing to me. And this week, Library Journal became the FOURTH trade publication to give WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL the star treatment.
The book’s accounts are based on countless interviews with individuals, ranging from spectators to those who play or work in the sport professionally. Their perspectives, combined with Posnanski’s comical storytelling ability and heartwarming, delightful writing style, create an entertaining experience and deeper appreciation for the magic of the sport.
Whoa. I obviously have to do some baseball math — let’s say that starred reviews are given to 7% of publications. What are the odds of getting four starred reviews in a row? Using my Joe DiMaggio hitting streak likelihood calculator, I compute the chances are 0.0024, which, alas, is better than Byron Buxton has been hitting lately.
The Book Tour Calendar is Live!
OK, there are still details to be worked out, but some dates have been firmed up — my (so-far) 20-city book tour is up at the top of the JoeBlogs site. I am trying hard to add a west coast swing in the middle of September; will give you more on that as soon as I know it.
And we are still working on things. My publicist Jamie and I so appreciate all of you who have put in requests and/or called your local bookstore to have them put in requests. I want to get out to see as many of you as I can.
I also want to give a special thank you to the Jewish Book Council, which selected WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL as one of its featured books this year. You will notice that many of these events are at JCCs across the country.
WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL Bonus!
Remember: If you preorder WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL, you can sign up to get some exclusive bonus content that does not appear in the book. I’m beginning to put that content together now, and it’s fun stuff — so fun that I’m like, “Hey, why didn’t I put this in the book?”
All you have to do is fill out this form with your email and proof of purchase and, voila, you will get your exclusive bonus when the book comes out!
JoeBlogs Players of the Week
Position player of the week: When he’s not dating Molly Ringwald, Houston’s Chas McCormick is slugging. He hit .524/.630/1.095 this week, with four home runs in six games. Special mention goes to Cleveland’s Josh Naylor, who hit four home runs this week, basically doubling the Guardians’ season total.
Anti-position player of the week: OK, look, we all know that Byron Buxton is the streakiest hitter in baseball, maybe even the streakiest hitter EVER in baseball. But this is ridiculous. This week, in five games, Buxton went 0-for-21 with 12 strikeouts and one walk.
And while we’re here, can we ask a question: What the heck happened to Trea Turner? I picked this guy to be the league MVP this year, and he’s doing a handful of things that I thought he would do. He’s playing every day — he has the most at-bats in the league. He’s 21-for-21 in stolen bases. He might score 100 runs (though he will need a push to get there). But all in all, he’s been, well, pretty terrible. He’s got a .300 on-base percentage. He’s slugging .385. He’s playing below-average defense. I don’t get it at all.
Pitcher of the week: Well, you knew it was only a matter of time before Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes started pitching like Corbin Burnes. This week, two starts, 14 innings, four hits, 0 runs, 23 strikeouts, 3 walks. He got off to a rough start this season, but I still think he’s the best pitcher on the planet.
Anti-pitcher of the week: As if things weren’t already going wrong for the Yankees, the return of Carlos Rodón has, uh, not gone well. This week, in two starts, he gave up four runs in five innings in the first one and six runs in 4 1/3 innings in the second. His command is nowhere right now. You would think things will come into focus as he pitches more, but who even knows?
Team of the week: Let’s give some love to the Texas Rangers, who just keep on winning — they’re going into Friday night with a six-game winning streak. Texas now has a four-game lead in the division, they lead the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, they have built a truly monster lineup that’s a nightmare for pitchers to get through. I predicted early success for the Rangers and a late-season fade. I don’t think the fade is happening.
Anti-team of the week: I didn’t see this Tampa Bay Rays collapse coming, and I would assume it’s only temporary, but … this team looks absolutely awful right now. They’re tied with the Pirates for the worst record in July — they’re 3-12. As mentioned, I would think it’s just a lull and they’ll come out of it. The Marlins, on the other hand, have lost six in a row and I can’t help but think that, as Cindy Lauper sang, their true colors are shining through.
This Week in JoeBlogs
Sunday: The Future of Tennis is Now — Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon in a match that felt even bigger than typical Wimbledon bigness.
Monday: 100 years of Hall of Famers (and Snubs), Part I.
Tuesday: 100 years of Hall of Famers (and Snubs), Part II
Wednesday: The State of Baseball (Trade Deadline Edition)
Thursday: A Hall of Fame Brilliant Reader Challenge
Reporter to John McKay: "Coach, what do you think of Brian Cashman's execution?"
Coach McKay: "I'm all in favor of it."
Perhaps I'm misremembering...
On the Orioles: One of my favorite things to do when a team is doing maybe better than their stats say (and winning a lot of one run games) is look at how they are doing in high leverage situations. There are alot of things you can look at, like the above mentioned record in 1 run games, or record when leading after the 6th inning, or what have you. There are some vague situational stats that break down certain situations, and there is a faction of people that think that clutch is not ever a thing.
This year, league wide, about 19% of PAs are considered high leverage. But when it comes to winning and losing, they are the most important 19%.
The league is hitting .254/.330/.413 in high leverage situations. The Orioles are hitting .290/.371/.469 and other teams are hitting .221/.294/.344 against their pitching. Having this difference happen at the most important parts of games will win you some games.
Clay Davenport does a thing called third order winning percentage. (I think of it as deserved winning percentage) The average difference per team currently is 3.34 wins different than their actual number of wins (the median is 2.2) but it adds up to the exact amount of wins. (There is the same amount positive and negative league wide) The Orioles are the most positive, with having 8.2 more wins than the third order has them with.
The biggest difference overall is the Royals, who have 9 less wins than their third order, and the Royals, already a bad team, are having an historically bad year in high leverage situations . They are hitting .185/.264/.286 (Yes, those are real numbers) in high leverage and other teams against their pitching are hitting .320/.382/.520 in high leverage.
Taking this to runs, the league is scoring (and giving up) 25.66 runs per 100 high leverage PAs. The Orioles are scoring 32.13 and giving up 19.84. The Royals are scoring 18.51 and giving up 34.70.