I saw a stat about Lorenzen's no hitter. Fullerton Union H.S. in Fullerton, CA has had only four pitchers that have played in MLB. All four have thrown no hitters in MLB.
I wonder if the Padres are properly described as the 2023 equivalent of the 1970s Boston Red Sox, described as 25 guys showing up and leaving in 25 separate cars. The problem wasn't the manager.
Joe, if you haven't watched the Lorenzen no-hitter, including the postgame festivities, you must. It was the most family-friendly baseball game ever, from Castellanos hitting HR #199 and 200 while his son ran around and high-fived everyone in the stands to 28,year-old rookie Weston Wilson hitting a HR in his first at-bat wirh his family in attendance to Lorenzen's feats, wirh his Mom, wife, and 9-month-old kid in attendance. Such an emotional night! I mean, this is why we love baseball.
Regarding the WAR of Ha-Seong Kim: There are some problems I have with both rWAR and fWAR. The problem with fWAR is the biggest, so I don't usually look at it. Their defensive component uses UZR which is objectively terrible. One third is error rate, and no one should use errors for anything. They vary greatly even stadium to stadium. Historically, KC has the easiest official scorers, the Dodgers are pretty tough. One third is either double play rate for infielders (more team context dependent than RBI) or ARM for outfielders (strict percentage of allowing runners to take extra bases or not, and how often you throw out a runner taking an extra base, regardless of where and how the ball is hit), one third is a more limited version of the range in DRS. For pitching, they use strictly FIP, whih is an interesting analysis tool for the future (like Babip can be for hitters) but not something I want WAR made from.
On the other hand, BR seems to slightly give too much weight to defense on both hitters and pitchers, while Fangraphs does not take it into account enough and uses an inferior system
But defense is important. When looking at their numbers, Kim is an amazing +16 DRS in the field, and gets a +2 WAR position adjustment for this year. Freeman is -6 in in the field and gets a -7 position adjustment. So in fielding, Kim is 31 runs better, and that will make up for quite a bit of offensive deficit. Acuna is -1 in the field with a -5 position adjustment so Kim has 24 runs on him defensively.
I do a runs above average for offense and baserunning combined. (I believe my baserunning component is more complete and far superior to either site) I don't try to mess with wins or fictional replacement level, but just for fun, I did mine, added or subtracted the the DRS and positional adjustment to get to total runs above average, and then added in the difference between average and replacement level for each player to try to get to where I would have the WAR. This is what I came up with:
Acuna: 6.4 WAR, Freeman 6.2, KIm 5.7. The WAR for Acuna and Freeman are a little higher for me, but Kim is a lot higher. I don't think he should be tied for the lead with Acuna, but he shouldn't 2 WAR behind him either.
The runs above average, combining offense, defense, and position adjustment (the latter prorated for the partial season, of course) before trying to mess with replacement level seem even closer. Acuna 48 runs above average, Freeman 46, Kim 42. I have Kim much closer than where it looks like with his triple slash, but a heck of a lot closer than FG has him.
Keep in mind that runs above average, as much and probably more than WAR, is a counting stat, and Kim is @ 90 PAs below the other two, partially because of where he hits (more than half of his PAs come hitting 6th or below) and being on a lesser offensive team, and a little bit because of playing less games. He has been incredibly efficient, so it is still an amazing season.
Runs above average per 100 PAs: Kim 9.70, Acuna 9.21, Freeman 8.80. The dude is having a great season. He should at least be near the level of the other two.
Thanks for the info. But OAA is objectively terrible, and they are replacing the range only which was (while not perfect) the best part of their defensive WAR and still using the other components.
For this comment, and many others, I appreciate the time, effort, and energy you invested in sharing your thoughts.
And I especially appreciated your discussion of WAR, the differences between the two main versions, and your thoughts on their shortcomings re: how they measure defense and base running. I have never delved into the intricacies of WAR calculations. I accept their valuable addition to measuring the comparative worth of players and the fact that they are estimates, and I had a surface level understanding of weighted factors given to different positions, ballparks, etc. But your fuller discussion of some of the factors used in defensive and base running metrics increased my understanding.
Thank you. Sometimes I feel like I am sending my obsessions into the void. Especially long ones like that. Whenever I see it go to "expand full comment" after I post, I almost assume no one will read it. It is always nice to know someone is reading.
SInce you commented, I will say something else. I only added in the somewhat arbitrary positional adjustment because we were talking about WAR, and that is added in that. I don't really agree with them. Part of this is that I prefer runs above or below average rather than above replacement.
Part of this is that a replacement player for the premium position also gets runs over replacement when he plays. A SS is replaced by a SS. A first baseman by a first baseman. While I realize you must be a more athletic defender to play SS, I think the defense is already done by DRS.
But, teams are more likely to accept defenders with less hitting prowess in defensive positions, and when trying to assess value between say, a catcher and first baseman, or a SS and a left fielder, what I do is see how many runs that position player is over the average at his position(s). This is where you see where the actual value is.
I waffle over what to do with DH in this. Obviously they don't add fielding value. Some teams have a regular DH, some teams have a rotation to get people mini rest, or use it to come back from injuries, etc. But if you are say, a bad outfielder or a first baseman, and you DH, are you subtracting value, or adding it because you are allowing perhaps a non negative fielder to play your defensive position? If there are two good hitters at your position, some teams will play both, and DH one of them. Heck, the Royals even did it at catcher for a bit this season when their backup started hitting really well. Not for defensive reasons really, just to get both bats in an otherwise anemic lineup.
Last year, instead of using the DH runs above average, I used the best offensive position as the baseline, (DH is not the best offensive creator of runs) instead of using DH. This gives them somewhat of a negative base to start - expecting them to be the best hitter on the team in those PAs and penalizing them if they are not. I am not sure if I will stick with that or not.
While I’m also excited about your upcoming book, and pre-ordered it months ago from Rainy Day Books, I’m sick and tired of every post starting with a recap of your book tour! Since you’re not going to be within 500 miles of me for any of the events…..I DON’T GIVE A FLYING FUDGESICLE who, what, and where you’re going to be!!!!
I subscribe to your site for insightful and humorous posts relating to baseball. The occasional non-baseball posts are generally enjoyable, but I don’t give a rat’s posterior for tennis or golf, but that’s fine. But to devote over half your column to selling your book and events is onerous!
You’re my favorite baseball writer, and “The Soul of Baseball” is one of my favorite baseball books, but for Jehovah’s sake PLEASE stop with the advertising disguised as a column!
You could scroll down to where the promos end. It took me three seconds. I know you have the time, since you wrote that whole thing up there.
Reminds me of Patton Oswalt reading the instructions on a Lean Cuisine…”Heat on high for two minutes. Stir. Heat on high for one more minute. Who am I, Emeril???”
That fake catch was great. What would be most awesome is if there were no outs and at least two runners on and you fake a catch and then get a triple play by doubling up guys headed on their way to home plate. Like the old hidden ball trick a first baseman would use to catch a runner taking a lead off the bag.
Joe, I think I pre-ordered almost immediately, but I cannot be sure. Is there a way to find out? I would like to pre-order without double-dipping (for financial reasons only).
Just a suggestion but, unless you preordered in person at a brick and mortar store, you should have an online order history with your booksellers of choice.
Royals have several good second-half storylines, including the 28-year-old rookie catcher Freddy Fermin. With that division so underwhelming, maybe there IS hope for 2024.
I haven’t read or heard this anywhere but since the Padres are such a huge disappointment I’m starting to wonder if they need a change at manager. Bob Melvin is considered by all to be a top tier guy after his great run in Oakland but maybe it’s just not the right fit for this team.
Michael Lorenzen is an amazing guy. I played with his eldest brother in Little League in Anaheim and he came along several years behind me, so I only remember him as a little kid running around the park. Now my sons play in the same Anaheim Little League, so I'm involved as a coach and a board member.
When Lorenzen signed with the Angels last year, he agreed to speak at our league's Opening Day ceremonies and he was great. Trying to be respectful of his time and privacy, we had someone hustle him off the field after he spoke, but he wanted to stay and talk to kids. A week later, my son went to the beach with his friend and they saw Lorenzen running on the beach. He came over and took a picture with them and was happy to do it.
His story is incredible and I'm glad he's so open about the difference following Jesus has made in his life.
Joe, I know I speak for pretty much everyone here when I offer my hearty congratulations for all the success you are having these days (not that you didn’t before, too, but this seems like...something else, something greater and more rarified). You have worked so hard and done so many things and are so good at what you do and you make so many people happy so often with your writing. I’m so happy for you. Can’t wait to see you here in Charlotte at the Knights event.
The San Diego Padres remind of the San Diego Chargers from about 10 years ago, who led the league in offense, led the league in defense, but missed the playoffs.*
* - When "leading the league" is based on total yards, it's not a great stat. Though that Chargers season is still a fun fact.
How will Season Ticket level JoeBlogs subscribers get their copies of "Why We Love Baseball"? I believe a free copy was promised with subscription.
WAR, what is good for .. indeed.
I saw a stat about Lorenzen's no hitter. Fullerton Union H.S. in Fullerton, CA has had only four pitchers that have played in MLB. All four have thrown no hitters in MLB.
I wonder if the Padres are properly described as the 2023 equivalent of the 1970s Boston Red Sox, described as 25 guys showing up and leaving in 25 separate cars. The problem wasn't the manager.
Joe, if you haven't watched the Lorenzen no-hitter, including the postgame festivities, you must. It was the most family-friendly baseball game ever, from Castellanos hitting HR #199 and 200 while his son ran around and high-fived everyone in the stands to 28,year-old rookie Weston Wilson hitting a HR in his first at-bat wirh his family in attendance to Lorenzen's feats, wirh his Mom, wife, and 9-month-old kid in attendance. Such an emotional night! I mean, this is why we love baseball.
Regarding the WAR of Ha-Seong Kim: There are some problems I have with both rWAR and fWAR. The problem with fWAR is the biggest, so I don't usually look at it. Their defensive component uses UZR which is objectively terrible. One third is error rate, and no one should use errors for anything. They vary greatly even stadium to stadium. Historically, KC has the easiest official scorers, the Dodgers are pretty tough. One third is either double play rate for infielders (more team context dependent than RBI) or ARM for outfielders (strict percentage of allowing runners to take extra bases or not, and how often you throw out a runner taking an extra base, regardless of where and how the ball is hit), one third is a more limited version of the range in DRS. For pitching, they use strictly FIP, whih is an interesting analysis tool for the future (like Babip can be for hitters) but not something I want WAR made from.
On the other hand, BR seems to slightly give too much weight to defense on both hitters and pitchers, while Fangraphs does not take it into account enough and uses an inferior system
But defense is important. When looking at their numbers, Kim is an amazing +16 DRS in the field, and gets a +2 WAR position adjustment for this year. Freeman is -6 in in the field and gets a -7 position adjustment. So in fielding, Kim is 31 runs better, and that will make up for quite a bit of offensive deficit. Acuna is -1 in the field with a -5 position adjustment so Kim has 24 runs on him defensively.
I do a runs above average for offense and baserunning combined. (I believe my baserunning component is more complete and far superior to either site) I don't try to mess with wins or fictional replacement level, but just for fun, I did mine, added or subtracted the the DRS and positional adjustment to get to total runs above average, and then added in the difference between average and replacement level for each player to try to get to where I would have the WAR. This is what I came up with:
Acuna: 6.4 WAR, Freeman 6.2, KIm 5.7. The WAR for Acuna and Freeman are a little higher for me, but Kim is a lot higher. I don't think he should be tied for the lead with Acuna, but he shouldn't 2 WAR behind him either.
The runs above average, combining offense, defense, and position adjustment (the latter prorated for the partial season, of course) before trying to mess with replacement level seem even closer. Acuna 48 runs above average, Freeman 46, Kim 42. I have Kim much closer than where it looks like with his triple slash, but a heck of a lot closer than FG has him.
Keep in mind that runs above average, as much and probably more than WAR, is a counting stat, and Kim is @ 90 PAs below the other two, partially because of where he hits (more than half of his PAs come hitting 6th or below) and being on a lesser offensive team, and a little bit because of playing less games. He has been incredibly efficient, so it is still an amazing season.
Runs above average per 100 PAs: Kim 9.70, Acuna 9.21, Freeman 8.80. The dude is having a great season. He should at least be near the level of the other two.
Fangraphs uses OAA, not UZR. It used to use UZR.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/
Thanks for the info. But OAA is objectively terrible, and they are replacing the range only which was (while not perfect) the best part of their defensive WAR and still using the other components.
For this comment, and many others, I appreciate the time, effort, and energy you invested in sharing your thoughts.
And I especially appreciated your discussion of WAR, the differences between the two main versions, and your thoughts on their shortcomings re: how they measure defense and base running. I have never delved into the intricacies of WAR calculations. I accept their valuable addition to measuring the comparative worth of players and the fact that they are estimates, and I had a surface level understanding of weighted factors given to different positions, ballparks, etc. But your fuller discussion of some of the factors used in defensive and base running metrics increased my understanding.
Thank you for that.
Thank you. Sometimes I feel like I am sending my obsessions into the void. Especially long ones like that. Whenever I see it go to "expand full comment" after I post, I almost assume no one will read it. It is always nice to know someone is reading.
SInce you commented, I will say something else. I only added in the somewhat arbitrary positional adjustment because we were talking about WAR, and that is added in that. I don't really agree with them. Part of this is that I prefer runs above or below average rather than above replacement.
Part of this is that a replacement player for the premium position also gets runs over replacement when he plays. A SS is replaced by a SS. A first baseman by a first baseman. While I realize you must be a more athletic defender to play SS, I think the defense is already done by DRS.
But, teams are more likely to accept defenders with less hitting prowess in defensive positions, and when trying to assess value between say, a catcher and first baseman, or a SS and a left fielder, what I do is see how many runs that position player is over the average at his position(s). This is where you see where the actual value is.
I waffle over what to do with DH in this. Obviously they don't add fielding value. Some teams have a regular DH, some teams have a rotation to get people mini rest, or use it to come back from injuries, etc. But if you are say, a bad outfielder or a first baseman, and you DH, are you subtracting value, or adding it because you are allowing perhaps a non negative fielder to play your defensive position? If there are two good hitters at your position, some teams will play both, and DH one of them. Heck, the Royals even did it at catcher for a bit this season when their backup started hitting really well. Not for defensive reasons really, just to get both bats in an otherwise anemic lineup.
Last year, instead of using the DH runs above average, I used the best offensive position as the baseline, (DH is not the best offensive creator of runs) instead of using DH. This gives them somewhat of a negative base to start - expecting them to be the best hitter on the team in those PAs and penalizing them if they are not. I am not sure if I will stick with that or not.
I, for one, am ecstatic that you'll be in Spring Lake, Joe! I'm there to see you; my wife is there to see Bob. Really looking forward to it.
Hello Joe,
While I’m also excited about your upcoming book, and pre-ordered it months ago from Rainy Day Books, I’m sick and tired of every post starting with a recap of your book tour! Since you’re not going to be within 500 miles of me for any of the events…..I DON’T GIVE A FLYING FUDGESICLE who, what, and where you’re going to be!!!!
I subscribe to your site for insightful and humorous posts relating to baseball. The occasional non-baseball posts are generally enjoyable, but I don’t give a rat’s posterior for tennis or golf, but that’s fine. But to devote over half your column to selling your book and events is onerous!
You’re my favorite baseball writer, and “The Soul of Baseball” is one of my favorite baseball books, but for Jehovah’s sake PLEASE stop with the advertising disguised as a column!
Thank you for letting me vent……
Mike Pattison
You could scroll down to where the promos end. It took me three seconds. I know you have the time, since you wrote that whole thing up there.
Reminds me of Patton Oswalt reading the instructions on a Lean Cuisine…”Heat on high for two minutes. Stir. Heat on high for one more minute. Who am I, Emeril???”
Yeah, we're paying him... to advertise his book to us. I don't mind a little blurb, but this has been too much.
That fake catch was great. What would be most awesome is if there were no outs and at least two runners on and you fake a catch and then get a triple play by doubling up guys headed on their way to home plate. Like the old hidden ball trick a first baseman would use to catch a runner taking a lead off the bag.
Joe, I think I pre-ordered almost immediately, but I cannot be sure. Is there a way to find out? I would like to pre-order without double-dipping (for financial reasons only).
Just a suggestion but, unless you preordered in person at a brick and mortar store, you should have an online order history with your booksellers of choice.
In theory, yes, but I have multiple emails. I am hoping Joe knows. Certainly Bo does not.
Royals have several good second-half storylines, including the 28-year-old rookie catcher Freddy Fermin. With that division so underwhelming, maybe there IS hope for 2024.
I haven’t read or heard this anywhere but since the Padres are such a huge disappointment I’m starting to wonder if they need a change at manager. Bob Melvin is considered by all to be a top tier guy after his great run in Oakland but maybe it’s just not the right fit for this team.
Don’t hold your breath. Underperforming baseball teams almost never fire their manager.
Michael Lorenzen is an amazing guy. I played with his eldest brother in Little League in Anaheim and he came along several years behind me, so I only remember him as a little kid running around the park. Now my sons play in the same Anaheim Little League, so I'm involved as a coach and a board member.
When Lorenzen signed with the Angels last year, he agreed to speak at our league's Opening Day ceremonies and he was great. Trying to be respectful of his time and privacy, we had someone hustle him off the field after he spoke, but he wanted to stay and talk to kids. A week later, my son went to the beach with his friend and they saw Lorenzen running on the beach. He came over and took a picture with them and was happy to do it.
His story is incredible and I'm glad he's so open about the difference following Jesus has made in his life.
Joe, I know I speak for pretty much everyone here when I offer my hearty congratulations for all the success you are having these days (not that you didn’t before, too, but this seems like...something else, something greater and more rarified). You have worked so hard and done so many things and are so good at what you do and you make so many people happy so often with your writing. I’m so happy for you. Can’t wait to see you here in Charlotte at the Knights event.
The San Diego Padres remind of the San Diego Chargers from about 10 years ago, who led the league in offense, led the league in defense, but missed the playoffs.*
* - When "leading the league" is based on total yards, it's not a great stat. Though that Chargers season is still a fun fact.
The sales pitch worked: I just pre-ordered the book!