Friday Rewind: A Steep Climb

About a month ago, our youngest, Katie, went off to college at Wake Forest. With Elizabeth already gone to college (and now going by Liz), that made us empty nesters — Margo and me and our 11-year-old standard poodle Westley, who is at that age where he gets scared walking down the stairs from my office.

Westley doesn’t ever remember that he gets scared walking down those stairs, so he scampers up to my office with all the confidence and bravado of his younger self. Then, once at the summit of the house, he nervously walks to the door and looks down the stairwell incredulously as if he’s thinking, “HEY, WHO PUT THESE STAIRS HERE?” Then he glances over at me and starts barking repeatedly, which means that I have to walk over and coax him and comfort him and nudge him and generally walk him all the way down to the first floor.

This process tends to take 15 to 20 minutes, except when it takes longer.

“Hey,” I tell him, “if you don’t want to walk down the stairs, then don’t come up the stairs.”

He looks at me acutely, as if he’s pondering the wisdom of my words, and he seems to nod, and then 10 minutes later, he comes bounding back into my office with all the confidence and bravado of his younger self, and we do it all over again and again, a half dozen times every day, over and over.

But the point is not our dog’s newfound fear of stairs but instead our newly branded status as empty nesters.

The truth is, I have not yet been able to process what it means to be an empty nester because, almost from the first minute that Katie was gone, I’ve been in the WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL fog. I’ve barely been home, I’ve had no time to think, other than in airports, in cars or on planes (I’m on a plane now), and I have found that those aren’t the best places to ponder the passage of time, the mysteries of memory or the vagaries of the heart.

So… how to feel? It’s funny, we’ve spoken to any number of parents about being empty nesters, and the conversations have ranged from “Oh, that has to be so hard, how are you holding up?” (this usually from young parents whose empty nester days are in the distant future), to “Isn’t it just the best?” (this usually from experienced empty nesters who seem relieved that they finally can be honest about how much they love being home without their kids now that we’ve joined the club).

I imagine we’ve dodged some of the existential dread of the empty nest because of the wild WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL schedule and, perhaps even more, because the girls are both within relatively easy driving distance … I know it would be much harder if they were somewhere across the country. But now that I’m beginning a semi-lull in the book tour — no events on the docket for two or three weeks — I feel like some of the emotions that I’ve been putting off are about to hit.

We’re about to go up to Wake Forest for Parent’s Weekend, and Katie has been texting all week about how excited she is that we’re coming, and I suspect she’s a bit homesick, and her room feels empty but is full of house leftovers now, and I’m bracing myself for whatever comes.

Happy Friday! The Rewind is free so everyone can enjoy it. Just a reminder that Joe Blogs is a reader-supported newsletter, and I’d love and appreciate your support.

The Padres’ Playoff Dream

The San Diego Padres have nine games left this season — three against St. Louis, three against the Giants and three in Chicago against the White Sox.

If they win all nine, do they make the playoffs?

We ask the question because the Padres have won seven games in a row since taking two of three from the Dodgers, and while it’s true that six of them were against the dreggy Athletics and Rockies, well, the Padres have been equal-opportunity underachievers all season. Their record against some of the bottom-feeders this year in the East and Central divisions.

Boston and the Yankees: 2-4
Kansas City: 1-2
Washington and the Mets: 6-6
St. Louis and Pittsburgh: 2-7

They’re 6-0 against Oakland and the Angels, and they’ve beaten up the Rockies, so they’ve been good against bad West teams, but overall they have not exactly run up the score against bad teams. So winning six in a row against the A’s and Rockies is a definite plus, and they’re more talented than any of the remaining teams on their schedule, so we again ask the question: If the Padres win out, do they make the playoffs?

Right now, they’re 75-78 and four games back … but that’s not their biggest problem. Their biggest problem is that there are four teams ahead of them fighting for that last spot — the Cubs and Marlins are 79-74, the Reds are 79-75 and Giants are 76-77.

So, win out, and they get to 84 wins. What would that mean?

• They’d finish ahead of the Giants, because they play the Giants — three wins against the Giants would be decisive.

• The Reds would have to go 6-2 to beat out the Padres. They certainly COULD do that — they play the Pirates, Guardians and Cardinals the rest of the way — but it’s a tough ask.

• The Marlins would have to go 6-3 to beat out the Padres, because San Diego actually has the tiebreaker against them. The Marlins play three against the Brewers, but then they have the Mets and Pirates (though the latter two series are on the road).

• The Cubs would only have to go 5-4 to beat out the Padres because the Cubbies have the tiebreaker. But the Cubs have the toughest schedule of the group — they have three at home against Colorado, and it would be beneficial to get the sweep because then they’re at Atlanta and Milwaukee.

Then there are all sorts of three-way tie scenarios or a complete collapse by the Diamondbacks that I’m not even going to consider here.

Could Bogaerts, Machado and Co. pull off a miracle? (Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

All in all, I’d say the Padres’ 0.7% playoff chance seems about right to me, but it is a chance. And it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this team keeps on winning and kindling false hope; that seems to be their specialty.

This week on the PosCast, Mike and I will have on “Abbott Elementary” executive producer and obsessive Padres fan Justin Halpern to talk about this bananas San Diego season, and Justin writes: “It’s absolutely hilarious that the Padres have won seven straight and sucked me back in.”

Yep. I think this team will probably keep inflicting pain on its fans right up to the finish line.

Hey, if you feel like it, I’d love if you’d share this post with your friends!

Cole Wraps Up Cy

It feels like Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in baseball for a few years now, no? He first emerged in 2015, when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting, behind Jake Arrieta (who had that second half for the ages), Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw … with Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner finishing just behind them.

Cole was just 24 then, younger than all of those pitchers, and so over the last eight seasons we have watched the others age and fade (Bumgarner prematurely) and fight with injuries and the years. Cole, meanwhile, played out his time in Pittsburgh, then he went to Houston, where in 2019 he struck out 326 batters in 212 innings and just barely lost the Cy Young to his teammate Justin Verlander. Then he went to New York for the huge contract, and in 2021, he finished second in the Cy Young voting, again behind an outlier career year from Robbie Ray.

This year has been a bizarre one for pitchers — as I wrote earlier in the week, the Cy Young races in both leagues are like Rorschach tests for how you see pitchers. But here at the end, it sure looks like this week the Padres’ Blake Snell put a hammerlock on the award by throwing seven no-hit innings, and on Thursday, Cole locked down his Cy with a thoroughly dominant eight innings in which he allowed just two hits, struck out nine and didn’t walk anybody.

Cole also got to 200 innings for the sixth time in his career. Check this out:

Most 200-inning seasons since 2015:

6: Gerrit Cole

4: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber

3: Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Chris Archer, Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Sale

What interests me about this, other than Cole being way out front? It’s that you look at those pitchers and realize the only one aside from Cole who might get to 200 innings again in his career is Nola: Probably not this year, but he will have numerous chances. And it makes you wonder: Who will throw 200 innings from this next generation? Sandy Alcantara surely will. Logan Webb has a lot of bulldog in him (he has thrown 207 innings this year) and Zac Gallen will cross 200 innings this year and Framber Valdez threw 200 last year and will get close this year. I mean, sure, there are SOME. But mostly, no, it wouldn’t surprise me if we get to the point where no pitcher throws 200 innings in a season.

But we won’t get there until Gerrit Cole is past his prime.

Zack

It has been super-hard watching Zack Greinke this season. He’s currently 1-15 with a 5.37 ERA, he has given up 25 home runs in just 132 innings, he’s smudging his career statistics in a way that could make his Hall of Fame case just a little bit more blurred. I hate it so much. This will be the first time since he was 21 years old that Zack will finish a season with a below-average ERA+.

Between THAT 2005 season (when he was still coming to grips with his social anxiety) and THIS 2023 season (when he is just trying to get by with whatever’s left in his arm) he went 210-113 with a 128 ERA+, a Cy Young Award, a second-place Cy Young finish, six Gold Gloves and a million stories.

I think I know why Zack keeps going out there. It’s a familiar tale. He likes pitching. He likes being around the game — few out there think so deeply about baseball. His kids are now old enough to see him pitch. He often pitches well enough at the starts of games to convince himself that he has something left.

Batters against Zack, pitch 1-25: .265/.301/.343

Batters, pitch 26-50: .281/.317/.497

Batters, pitch 51-75: .291/.305/.520

Batters, pitch 76-100: .405/.419/.786

Also, he’s only 26 strikeouts away from 3,000.

I totally get why he goes on. And yet, it pains me to see him struggle like this. I’ve wondered: Could he be a relief pitcher? I mean, throw him out there for an inning or two, and it seems like he could be effective. Zack used to love being in the bullpen, and in his 28 appearances this year, he’s given up a run in the first inning only four times.

But, alas, I doubt his arm would hold up pitching two days in a row or three out of five days or whatever. He turns 40 in a month and, you know, sometimes there’s just no tricks or maneuvers left. I do wonder if Zack will try again next year so he can get to 3,000 Ks, but, realistically, I don’t know if there’s any other team in baseball that would have given Zack as many innings as the Royals gave him this year. Endings are so hard. But what a ride it’s been.

A Little Book Stuff

OK, too much incredible book stuff has happened and is happening, it’s all overwhelming, but I’m going to list off a bunch of those things now and you can call it a day if you like, or read on because you’re just that kind of friend.

— The book stayed on the New York Times bestseller list for a second week (No. 12!), and in many ways, this is more amazing even than it reaching No. 2 on the list last week. This is the time of year when blockbuster books are released for the holiday gift-giving season, and so there are EIGHT debut books on this week’s list. To stay on the list through that is a little bit mind-boggling.

— The New York Times’ Elisabeth Egan wrote a joyful little story about me for “Inside the List,” and it leads to a very meta question: In the story, I’m quoted as saying, “I cannot stand the whole notion of the hot take. I don’t like fake rage.” I believe this, but … isn’t this, in itself, a hot take?

— I had such a fun time on “CBS Mornings” talking with former George Washington baseball star Tony Dokoupil, but I also had a lot of fun talking off-camera with Gayle King and Nate Burleson.

I might be smiling a little too much here.

Nate and Gayle were watching the interview from right behind the cameras, and afterward, Nate said the funniest thing to me: He said, “My favorite part of the interview was when Tony called you the greatest living sportswriter and you just kind of nodded like, ‘Yeah, that me.’” Those of you who know me obviously know that’s NOT what was in my head, but, I mean, I’m not about to ARGUE with him on national television. Anyway, I’m kind of glad it came across that way. My mother always says I should convey more confidence.

— This is a very insider kind of thing, but I want to say something about it because (1) I love independent bookstores, and (2) You are a huge part of this. There are nine independent bookstore regions — Northern and Southern California (two regions), New England, Southern, Mountains and Plains, Pacific Northwest, New Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Midwest.

Last week, WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL was on the bestseller list in ALL NINE regions.

That speaks to all of you, in different places across the country, reading this book. And it’s so awesome.

— I mentioned at the top that I have a semi-lull in the book schedule now. It’s true and also not true. I have a bunch of interviews lined up, with probably more on the way. But, as of right now, I don’t think I’m doing another formal event until Oct. 18, when I’ll be at Park Road Books in Charlotte. The event is free, but I’d give the store a call or drop them an email if you’re planning on coming.

After that, I’ll be in Dallas on Oct. 26, Rockville, Md., on Nov. 5, Cherry Hill on Nov. 6, Atlanta on Nov. 8, Toledo on Nov. 12 and Houston on Nov. 14. I know we’re talking with Joseph-Beth Booksellers in Cincinnati about rescheduling, and we’re looking to set up a few new events that could be just amazing fun … oh, and, yeah, I’m also writing a football book that will come out next year and I’m hoping will be … well, at this stage, I’ll just say I’m shooting for the stars on that one, too.

So, yeah, lots coming up. Thanks again and I’ll keep you posted!

JoeBlogs Week in Review

Sunday: On the way home from the wild, two-week voyage of the WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL tour, I pondered, among other things, the unique plight of the Angels.

Monday: I wrote about Shohei's spectacular season, and everything else going on in baseball right now.

Tuesday: Week 2 of the Browns Diary gave me that all-too-familiar feeling. Plus, a tip of the cap to Adam Wainwright for winning No. 200.

Wednesday: Who Really Deserves to Win the Cy Young Award?

Thursday: I turned a Brilliant Reader Challenge into something that I’m calling “Is This Anything (Sports Edition)?”