Emptying the Brain Again

Several Brilliant Readers suggested this should be a list of 42 Random Things rather than 50. I couldn’t agree more. Here we go … and as always, you can email in your random thoughts, questions, ideas.

1) What the heck is left to say about the Milwaukee Brewers? They are now 27-4 in their last 31 games … and more to the point, they have outscored their opponents 203-99. That means they are not only winning, they are outscoring their opponents by more than three runs per game. They just outscored the Pirates 33-6 in their three-game sweep — and that includes knocking around Paul Skenes.

There is study after study that essentially disproves the hot hand fallacy — the seemingly reasonable assumption that someone or some team on a hot streak of any kind (a great hitting stretch, a string of made three pointers, a winning streak, etc.) is more likely to be successful going forward. I do believe the studies and don’t believe that just because the Brewers have been crazy hot, that they are more likely to win tomorrow night in Cincinnati.

BUT … I do believe in the power of confidence and belief. It’s not foolproof, obviously, but I think the Milwaukee Brewers truly believe they can’t be beat, and that’s a really good place to be. I’ve seen it many times in my life. I saw it with the 2015 Royals, for example. That team, on paper, just wasn’t that good. But man, they THOUGHT they were good, and they all knew exactly how they would beat you, and they just kept on winning all the way to the finish.

This Brewers team gives me that same vibe. Everybody in the lineup (except maybe Joey Ortiz) hits. Every starter gives you five to six solid innings. Everyone in the bullpen gets outs. The assumption I’ve heard from various people around baseball is that eventually the magic runs out and the season ends as Brewers seasons always seem to end: With October heartbreak.

It could work out that way, but I love the vibes around this team.

2) I’m so happy for White Sox rookie Colson Montgomery. I watched Colson struggle mightily in Class AAA Charlotte for the last two years, and it was often painful. Here was this super-talented guy, a top prospect, and he just couldn’t get out of his own way. He struggled, then tried to break free from his struggles, which led to more struggles. He swung at terrible pitches. He had some of the worst three-pitch at-bats I’ve ever seen.

But since he has been called up back on Independence Day, he has hit 10 home runs and slugged .534. And the White Sox — THE WHITE SOX — have been playing roughly .500 ball. Good on ya, Colson!

3) OK, I don’t understand the Labubu phenomenon and want no part of it. But if you are a Dodgers fan and are into all this (I’m looking at you Molly Knight!):

4) I’m going to be at Wrigley Field this weekend for the Sunday game between the Cubs and Pirates. Hoping I might be able to help turn Pete Crow-Armstrong’s season back around. He’s been helpless the last 10 games — two singles and zero walks in 39 plate appearances. Yikes.

PCA is putting up one of the weirdest MVP seasons I can remember. How can someone with a .291 on-base percentage be leading the National League in bWAR? He’s incredible in every other way, yes — leads the league in doubles, 27 homers, 30 stolen bases, otherworldly centerfield defense and so on. But a .291 on-base percentage? Yikes.

On Wednesday, I introduced the Tango Average, a very simple linear weights weigh to estimate a player’s value. The league average Tango Average (we do need a better name) is 1. PCA’s Tango Average is just 1.059, barely above league average. I would never downplay the guy’s value because I love the guy and hope he puts on a show when I’m there to see him in person. But I simply don’t see how his defense and baserunning could be SO good that he could actually win the MVP with a .291 on-base percentage and so-so Tango Average.

5) RIP Lionel Taylor, the first player in professional football to catch 100 passes in a season. He did that in 1961 (in a 14-game season!) while playing for the AFL’s Denver Broncos.

6) Our “Guess My Next Book Title” winner this week is Brilliant Reader Todd, who goes with: “Joey Votto: The Most Interesting Man in Baseball.” This is a fantastic idea, and I wish I had thought of it. Though I’m not sure Joey has forgiven me yet for leaving him out of The Baseball 100.

7) I actually have news on that front. I will be announcing the book and all of its details (including an unveiling of the amazing cover) on September 10! This one will have lots and lots of surprises, and I’m bursting to tell you.

😎 To celebrate the announcement of the new book, I will be doing a Sports Books 10 countdown, where for 10 days leading I will be counting down my 10 favorite ever sports books. This is going to be a lot of fun.

9) There’s obviously a lot of buzz around this household for Taylor Swift’s new album “The Life of a Showgirl,” and for her interview with the Kelces on their New Heights podcast.

10) You know who’s been hitting like crazy over the last month? Giancarlo! Holy shmoly, in his last 27 games, he’s hitting .344/.404/.733 with 11 home runs

Here are the exit velocities of his last five bombs:

It has been a wild career for so many reasons, but I honestly think that nobody in baseball history has hit baseballs harder than Giancarlo Stanton.

11) Brilliant Reader Bobby brings up this wonderful fact: There are 18 players this year who have stolen 22 bases or more. Here is the percentile ranking of each player’s sprint speed — you’ll find one is not like the others.