DPR: Game on in the AL Central!

We had a lighter baseball schedule on Thursday, but the glorious thing about pennant races — even in this watered-down time when 12 teams make the playoffs — is that something exciting happens every day. Let’s get to the Daily Pennant Race!

Earlier this week, I was on Cleveland radio, and they asked me what I thought about the Guardians making the playoffs. To be honest, what I heard was “Do you think the Guardians can still win the division?” And I said something about how they do have a shot, but each game against the Tigers this week was essentially a must-win.

The hosts were surprised: “You think they have to win every game against Detroit to make the playoffs?” they asked in a bewildered way (or something like that), and only then did I realize that they were asking me about Cleveland’s wildcard chances, not the division title. So I said no, if we’re talking wildcard, they probably need to win four of their last six against Detroit to give themselves an excellent shot.

That’s what they went with as their headline:

But in my mind, the division title question is a lot more interesting.

And it’s now VERY interesting because the Guardians, against the odds, beat Tarik Skubal and the Tigers Thursday to get the sweep and cut the division margin to 3.5 games. We’ll talk about the wildcard in a minute, but for now:

How did Cleveland, with the worst offense in baseball, beat Skubal?

Well, they just made him throw a few more pitches than he wanted and got him out of there after six innings, that’s how. Skubie Doo allowed only one run but threw 102 pitches — guys like Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez worked him over for longer at-bats — and then he had to go, and José Ramirez took Troy Melton deep, and that was that, a 3-1 victory. This is the only way Cleveland can win games. But somehow they keep threading that needle. It was the Guardians’ seventh win in a row and 12th win in their last 13 games. Now they have four against the free-falling Twins, and then they get the Tigers at home. Game on.

As for the Tigers, their playoff percentage dropped slightly, but only to 94.9% because the Red Sox lost … they’re still on relatively solid ground. Heck, they are still slotted in for the American League’s second bye. But they are sure making life harder on themselves. You’ve just GOT to win when you’ve got Skubal on the mound. They’ve got three with Atlanta this weekend, and it has been months since the Braves had anything to play for. But they have won five in a row.

On Thursday, the Yankees kicked around the lifeless Baltimore Orioles — has there been a more disappointing season in recent memory than this Orioles year? — and they’re now three games behind Toronto in the division. This division race doesn’t feel especially meaningful because both teams are almost entirely assured of making the playoffs — but the winner of the division will get a bye, so that’s something?*

Anyway, the Yankees don’t get to play the Blue Jays … but their last nine games are all against the last-place Orioles and last-place White Sox.

The Blue Jays play three in Kansas City, then they come home for series against the Red Sox and Rays. If the Blue Jays win six of those nine, they’ll win the division (because they have the tiebreaker).

Here’s how the NL wildcard race looks:

The Diamondbacks didn’t play on Thursday, but the Reds and Mets won, and the Giants lost 1-0 to the Dodgers because they couldn’t do a thing against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and five LA relievers. They managed just one hit in the game. Oof. They are not mathematically out of it, but, yeah, they’re pretty much out of it.

Unfortunately, none of the other three teams play each other.

The Mets have the Nats, Cubs and Marlins.

The D-Backs have a brutal schedule — Phillies, Dodgers, Padres.

And the Reds have the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers.

It looks to me like BIG ADVANTAGE METS — especially with their two-game lead — but this is baseball, so who knows? It might be exciting.

I put the wrong headline on this the first time I wrote.

Brilliant Reader Mark wrote in on Wednesday to say that the Nats’ tragic number was 1 … to avoid 100 losses. They promptly lost 9-4 to Atlanta — completing the sweep. So the number is still 1. I feel so badly for Nationals fans; it has been nothing but pain since they won the World Series in 2019. This team has Bryce Harper! This team had Juan Soto! This team had Trea Turner! This team had Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg!

Time + Cheapness + Poor Decisions = Another Last Place Season.

My friend Dan, a longtime crisis manager, likes to say that he has spent his life at the corner of bad luck and bad judgment. The Nationals have a prime address on that corner — though mostly for them, it’s been just bad judgment.

It’s been a little while since we checked in on the Rockies because in mid-August, they took seven of nine games from the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers to move to a terrible but not historically terrible 37-90 record. That seemed to secure the fact that they wouldn’t lose 121 games like last year’s White Sox. We all just moved on.

But these Rockies have proven much more durable losers than expected. Since beating the Dodgers 8-3 on August 20, they are a wonderful 4-22. And now they come into the final stretch with a shot at 121! Thrilling. They’d have to lose all nine of their final games, but, heck, they’ve lost 11 of their last 12, so they can do it! The Rockies play the Angels at home this weekend, but then go to Seattle and San Francisco for the final six games.

Don’t stop believin’!

Yep, the Astros and Mariners are tied for the division title. I’d be more excited about it except absolutely very little seems on the line … this is a perfect example of why I don’t like the expanded wildcard. If the Astros and Mariners were in the midst of a winner-take-all pennant race — with only one team making the postseason — then this would be utterly riveting. But as it stands today, both teams would make the postseason and neither team would get the bye. So, really, what’s the difference? I guess the division loser would have to play the Yankees, while the division winner would get to play Boston or Cleveland or even Detroit, depending on who wins that final wildcard spot.

So, you know, yawn.

But the race itself is fun … the Mariners represent some fun new energy, they’ve got Cal Raleigh hitting bombs, Julio Rodriguez slugging .608 since mid-July (he’s probably a top-five MVP candidate now), Bryan Woo has been pitching wonderfully all season, etc.

And the Astros represent old royalty; they keep finding ways to defy gravity — winning one-run games, riding Hunter Brown and getting some good play out of Carlos Correa. We’ll be watching for sure. I just wish it meant more. Maybe it will before its done.

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