DPR: Blake Snell shows out

The pennant races continue to heat up … chaos in the American League West, it’s getting tighter in the Central, Boston is holding on for dear life, and we start with our third team to clinch a playoff spot.

On Wednesday, I wrote that the Cubs sort of clinched a playoff spot because they won their 87th game, and they had the tiebreaker advantage over Arizona, the only team left that could get to 87 wins and knock them out.

But, I also said that there was probably some three-way tie improbability that prevented them from officially clinching that playoff spot.

And …. indeed there was such an improbability. From Brilliant Reader Al:

So there you go. Well, the Cubs ended even the most absurd of possibilities on Wednesday when they pounded the Pirates 8-4. Ian Happ, who just puts up four-WAR seasons each and every year, hit a titanic first-inning homer over Johan Oviedo. The Pirates’ pitching coach, Oscar Martin, went to the mound to talk with Oviedo.

I imagine the conversation went like so:

Martin: You OK, buddy?

Oviedo: Yeah, I’m fine. Doing good.

Martin: He hit that a long way.

Oviedo: Total mistake pitch. Went with curveball. I’ll throw the next guy my heat.

Martin: Cool!

Oviedo indeed did throw Moisés Ballesteros a fastball on the next pitch … and Ballesteros mashed a 113-mph laser beam into the right field stands.

Anyway, the Cubs are in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, when everyone made the playoffs. They join the Brewers and Phillies. Doesn’t it feel like pretty much all the best teams are in the National League now? It feels a bit like the NBA Western Conference-Eastern Conference Divide.

Last season, you might remember, the Tigers went on a crazy run at the end of the season — they won 15 of their last 20 — and slipped into the playoffs.

This year, it’s … different. They went on their crazy run early — they won 50 of their first 80 games and had the best record in all of baseball. But lately, they’ve been playing meandering baseball — losing series to the As, the then flailing Mets, the White Sox and the Marlins. They came into the week’s series at home against Cleveland with a clear mission: Knock out the pesky Guardians once and for all.

And … the Guardians have won the first two games of the series. Cleveland won 4-0 yesterday, and the Tigers looked utterly lifeless against SIX Cleveland pitchers. The Guards are now within 4.5.

All is not lost for the Tigers … far from it. They still have a 4.5 game lead in the division — and Tarik Skubal on the mound this afternoon. They’ve still got a 96% chance to make the postseason. But that’s their lowest postseason percentage in a long time, and it would definitely be in their best interest to knock Cleveland off today and, more or less, put an end to the drama.

That’s obviously not what Cleveland wants, however, and if the Guardians do manage to beat Skubal and the Tigers today, they will feel really good about their playoff chances — they’ve got three more against the Tigers next week in Cleveland. See, this is what I love about pennant races. Today’s game (1:05 start!) is not exactly a must-win for either team. But it’s kind of a must-win for both teams.

A huge Red Sox fan wakes up from a 40-year coma. The first question he asks, obviously, is “How are the Red Sox doing?”

You: “Well, it’s been a struggle lately, but they won a thriller today in extra innings!”

Man: How did they win?

You: Well, MLB now puts a runner on second base automatically in extra innings because, well, some reason, and so they just put a speedy guy named Nate Eaton at second base, and then the A’s, who are now playing in Sacramento, intentionally walked Nathaniel Lowe, who is hitting .222 for the season, but that’s not bad like it used to be, and then Carlos Narváez bunted the runners to second and third, and then Nick Sogard hit a slow grounder to second, and the throw home was late, and that’s how the Red Sox won to stay 2.5 games up for the last wildcard spot, oh, yeah, they now have three wildcard teams in each league.

Man: Can you put me back in the coma?

Look, I’ve given up trying to understand Astros voodoo. This is a team without Kyle Tucker, without Alex Bregman, without Yordan Alvarez; they’ve got Jose Altuve at designated hitter, their big offseason acquisition, Christian Walker, has a negative WAR, and their third-best starter played George on Seinfeld.*

I just assumed that the Rangers would kick them around for three games this week, make their own playoff mark, and leave the Astros in the dustbin of history.

Um, no. Instead, the Astros kicked the Bochy out of the Rangers in a three-game sweep where they led at the end of every single inning but one (the Rangers managed to make yesterday’s 2-2 after two innings). And now Texas’ playoff hopes are more or less gone, and the Astros are sitting in first place in the American League West. What is it with this team?

Of course, the Astros are not locked into the playoffs. They only lead the division by a half game and only lead Cleveland by three games for the last wildcard spot. But I’m guessing they find a way. The Astros always find a way.

Submitted without comment:

Brandon (quoting social post from Roman S): “No hate for Cal but if his OPS was 180 points lower, he’d be league average. If Judge’s OPS was 180 points lower, he’d be Cal Raleigh.

Me: Fair. But Cal Raleigh is also a catcher.

Brandon: Meh.

The Phillies did exactly what they wanted to do this week. They went into LA, battled their guts out, took two of three from the Dodgers — even on a day when the Shohei Ohtani threw five no-hit innings AND hit a home run — and again sent out the message that they’re going to be very, very dangerous in October.

But on Wednesday, the Dodgers’ Blake Snell reminded everyone that when he’s healthy, he might just be the most unhittable force since Pedro or Big Unit. This time, he threw seven shutout innings, allowed two hits, and struck out 12.

For almost anyone else, that’s a career day.

For Blake Snell, that’s a Wednesday.

Here, for your enjoyment, are the five pitchers with the most games of at least six innings, at least 12 strikeouts and two or fewer hits allowed:

Of course, Ryan completed 12 of those games, Koufax completed all 10 of his games, Unit completed six — and Blake Snell completed zero of them (he only struck out 11 in his one complete game, that no-hitter he threw last year). You can’t really compare him with pitchers of the past; Snell is his own thing. But for pure dominance, holy cow, Snell is something else.

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