Ohtani is ahead of Judge in WAR if you remove the -1.2 reduction he gets in defense for being a pitcher. Joe himself has argued that this part of the WAR calculation is flawed in his article about Keith Hernandez. I would argue that leading in overall WAR is a relevant statistical argument in favour of Ohtani as MVP.
I love how Joe casually drops "write anything about Serena". Sorry, but writing about Serena really doesn't get any reaction from anybody, maybe a bit from the same tiny tiny minority that doesn't think Judge should be the MVP, but just like there are topics that will get a reaction from fans, we must believe that:
"She's black so she must be hated so we must promp her up!"
Williams was great, but we cannot really compare them. Teddy Ballgame never had to face a LH relief pitcher whose sole reason of being on the roster was to get HIM out in the 8th or 9th inning, throwing 98 MPH fastballs and 92 MPH sliders (which I don't think was invented yet). We really don't know how well he would have done against that.
OPS+ of 235, so yeah, almost two and half times better than the average hitter at the age of 22. He walked 147 times and struck out 27 times! In Soto's only "Ted Williams" year, he played 47 games in a shortened season.
As far as the Soto/Williams thing goes, I still think Williams would have been great. His bat would be dominant in any era. I do understand that the population has expanded faster than the league, and the influx of international players is a big difference, but Williams remained great through integration, leading the league in things like OBP, OPS+, and OPS about half the time during his play after integration, including at age 39 when there was a higher percentage of African Americans in baseball than there are today.
But I took it as him calling attention to the fact that Soto is the most Williams like player we have seen in some time. He hits for average and power, though not as much as Williams. But his ability to Walk a lot and not strike out while doing that is even more impressive than WIlliams when you just put it in league atmosphere perspective, without even taking the points Joe made above into account.
Williams through age 23, only struck out 7.5% of his PAs, but the league average then was 7.9% as putting the ball in play was cherished. He walked 18.9% of the time when the league average was 8.8%. Yes, there were more walks than strikeouts then. 1.12 walks for every strikeout. Williams walked, at that age, 2.53 times per every strikeout well over double the league average.
Soto walks 19% of the time in a league environment of 8.6%. HE strikes out much more than Ted at 16.8%, but the league strikes out at 22.8%. Soto walks 1.13 times per K, close to the average of WIlliam's time, but the league walks 0.38 times per K, or just over triple the league average (if you take the rounding out of it) He is better compared to the league at his age at taking walks and limiting strikeouts than Williams was at 23.
I agree that Lindor is having a very good season. Every year after fantasy and baseball drafts, I note who is what I felt was the most undervalued player, the guy I have on the most teams. This year it was Lindor with Montas on the pitching side. I was sure they would both get injured or be terrible because of that, but Lindor has been great, and Montas solid.
But Lindor isn't going to be considered for the MVP unless he has an unbelievable end to the season, because it is not the late 80s or early 90s. The voters aren't going to look at the fact that he plays shortstop and give him a leg up because of that.
I would argue that for the first half of the season, when Judge was already anointed the runaway MVP by seemingly everyone, there was a legit 6-player race (Alvarez, Ramirez, Devers, Trout, Ohtani). But Judge's start to the second half has probably sealed the deal.
Though there are 7 weeks left and 7 weeks is a long time.
Posnanski says here one meaningful if not misleading thing, “We are now entering nervous time for the Mets — it’s mid-August, they have the second-best record in baseball…” Is he kidding? Mets’ fan have been nervous the whole damn season. When the Mets are doing well, their fans never stop being nervous. As one Apple announcer said on Friday, “Everyone is waiting for the Mets to mets.” Crap, mets is now a verb! But, Mets’ fans can all relate. “You gotta believe” has turned into, “Oh my god, I’m so frightened.”
Joe you could have added writing anything about Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is guaranteed to get people fired up. While MVP is not necessarily the player who had the best statistical season, it often ends up that way. In Aaron Judge's case he's got a case for both - best player and most valuable on one of the best teams without any other teammate having an extraordinary season.. That is Goldschmidt's argument to a lesser degree as well. It's unfair that Arenado would siphon votes from Goldschmidt but that happens frequently in MVP voting. Lindor would have the same problem with both Alonso and Diaz. Great topic!
Ahhhh. A Joe read is a Great way to start a week. Like finding an old seasoned glove in a dark closet for a game of catch with your brother. Where you’re not sure whether it was the soft feel of worn leather or the oiled smell that led your hands to it. But you’re glad they did and it feels great now.
But Lindor is a great choice. His defense has been amazing on top of the batting line, and he also has a cool narrative to his story arc: he missed one game after he fractured part of his finger, and then demanded to return to the lineup. This is one of those "galvanize the locker room" moments that will get more play down the stretch.
What's so strange about Nightengale's tweet is that while Judge has pretty clearly been the "best" player, he's probably not the most "valuable." The Yankees are going to cruise to the post-season, and they would have done so without Judge. If you really want the most "valuable" player, it's gotta be a guy on a post-season team whose WAR exceeds the number of games his team wins its division (or the wild card) by. Like, if Jose Ramirez's WAR ends up at like 6.5 and Cleveland ends up winning its division by 1 game, Ramirez was more "valuable" to his team than Judge.
I agree with this and will also add that postseason stats should count in the voting, as well as things like Championship Wins Probably Added. If a guy carries his team to championship, like Bumgarner did in '14, for example, does he deserve to be the Cy Young award winner that season? It's a question worth considering.
I’ve done no research so forgive me if this is obvious but… if Lindor wins MVP, has there ever been an MVP named that did not make the All Star team that year?
Ohtani is ahead of Judge in WAR if you remove the -1.2 reduction he gets in defense for being a pitcher. Joe himself has argued that this part of the WAR calculation is flawed in his article about Keith Hernandez. I would argue that leading in overall WAR is a relevant statistical argument in favour of Ohtani as MVP.
I love how Joe casually drops "write anything about Serena". Sorry, but writing about Serena really doesn't get any reaction from anybody, maybe a bit from the same tiny tiny minority that doesn't think Judge should be the MVP, but just like there are topics that will get a reaction from fans, we must believe that:
"She's black so she must be hated so we must promp her up!"
Williams was great, but we cannot really compare them. Teddy Ballgame never had to face a LH relief pitcher whose sole reason of being on the roster was to get HIM out in the 8th or 9th inning, throwing 98 MPH fastballs and 92 MPH sliders (which I don't think was invented yet). We really don't know how well he would have done against that.
I think the comparison between Soto and Teddy Ballgames will be easily settled. In about 18 years.
I'll make a case for Trea Turner being an MVP candidate over Mookie Betts. In fact, I have Freddie Freeman 2nd and ahead of Betts too.
Great stuff. As an Indians fan, I can't sure whether to be pissed, or sad about Lindor. Certainly used to trading all stars, and getting good return, but he pretty much admitted that he dogged it in 2020 to get out of town. https://www.si.com/mlb/guardians/opinion/did-francisco-lindor-quit-in-2020-playing-for-the-indians#:~:text=Lindor%20spoke%20on%20Monday%20to,is%20going%20to%20be%20different.
1941 Ted Williams was still considerably better than his rival AL batters, who faced the same Johnnies you mentioned.
OPS+ of 235, so yeah, almost two and half times better than the average hitter at the age of 22. He walked 147 times and struck out 27 times! In Soto's only "Ted Williams" year, he played 47 games in a shortened season.
Exactly! Soto is awesome, but we don’t have to pooh-pooh Ted Williams to make some historical comp.
As far as the Soto/Williams thing goes, I still think Williams would have been great. His bat would be dominant in any era. I do understand that the population has expanded faster than the league, and the influx of international players is a big difference, but Williams remained great through integration, leading the league in things like OBP, OPS+, and OPS about half the time during his play after integration, including at age 39 when there was a higher percentage of African Americans in baseball than there are today.
But I took it as him calling attention to the fact that Soto is the most Williams like player we have seen in some time. He hits for average and power, though not as much as Williams. But his ability to Walk a lot and not strike out while doing that is even more impressive than WIlliams when you just put it in league atmosphere perspective, without even taking the points Joe made above into account.
Williams through age 23, only struck out 7.5% of his PAs, but the league average then was 7.9% as putting the ball in play was cherished. He walked 18.9% of the time when the league average was 8.8%. Yes, there were more walks than strikeouts then. 1.12 walks for every strikeout. Williams walked, at that age, 2.53 times per every strikeout well over double the league average.
Soto walks 19% of the time in a league environment of 8.6%. HE strikes out much more than Ted at 16.8%, but the league strikes out at 22.8%. Soto walks 1.13 times per K, close to the average of WIlliam's time, but the league walks 0.38 times per K, or just over triple the league average (if you take the rounding out of it) He is better compared to the league at his age at taking walks and limiting strikeouts than Williams was at 23.
I agree that Lindor is having a very good season. Every year after fantasy and baseball drafts, I note who is what I felt was the most undervalued player, the guy I have on the most teams. This year it was Lindor with Montas on the pitching side. I was sure they would both get injured or be terrible because of that, but Lindor has been great, and Montas solid.
But Lindor isn't going to be considered for the MVP unless he has an unbelievable end to the season, because it is not the late 80s or early 90s. The voters aren't going to look at the fact that he plays shortstop and give him a leg up because of that.
I would argue that for the first half of the season, when Judge was already anointed the runaway MVP by seemingly everyone, there was a legit 6-player race (Alvarez, Ramirez, Devers, Trout, Ohtani). But Judge's start to the second half has probably sealed the deal.
Though there are 7 weeks left and 7 weeks is a long time.
Posnanski says here one meaningful if not misleading thing, “We are now entering nervous time for the Mets — it’s mid-August, they have the second-best record in baseball…” Is he kidding? Mets’ fan have been nervous the whole damn season. When the Mets are doing well, their fans never stop being nervous. As one Apple announcer said on Friday, “Everyone is waiting for the Mets to mets.” Crap, mets is now a verb! But, Mets’ fans can all relate. “You gotta believe” has turned into, “Oh my god, I’m so frightened.”
And then there's the NL leader in bWAR, Sandy Alcantara.
Joe you could have added writing anything about Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is guaranteed to get people fired up. While MVP is not necessarily the player who had the best statistical season, it often ends up that way. In Aaron Judge's case he's got a case for both - best player and most valuable on one of the best teams without any other teammate having an extraordinary season.. That is Goldschmidt's argument to a lesser degree as well. It's unfair that Arenado would siphon votes from Goldschmidt but that happens frequently in MVP voting. Lindor would have the same problem with both Alonso and Diaz. Great topic!
Ahhhh. A Joe read is a Great way to start a week. Like finding an old seasoned glove in a dark closet for a game of catch with your brother. Where you’re not sure whether it was the soft feel of worn leather or the oiled smell that led your hands to it. But you’re glad they did and it feels great now.
The Mets MVP is Edwin Diaz.
But Lindor is a great choice. His defense has been amazing on top of the batting line, and he also has a cool narrative to his story arc: he missed one game after he fractured part of his finger, and then demanded to return to the lineup. This is one of those "galvanize the locker room" moments that will get more play down the stretch.
What's so strange about Nightengale's tweet is that while Judge has pretty clearly been the "best" player, he's probably not the most "valuable." The Yankees are going to cruise to the post-season, and they would have done so without Judge. If you really want the most "valuable" player, it's gotta be a guy on a post-season team whose WAR exceeds the number of games his team wins its division (or the wild card) by. Like, if Jose Ramirez's WAR ends up at like 6.5 and Cleveland ends up winning its division by 1 game, Ramirez was more "valuable" to his team than Judge.
I agree with this and will also add that postseason stats should count in the voting, as well as things like Championship Wins Probably Added. If a guy carries his team to championship, like Bumgarner did in '14, for example, does he deserve to be the Cy Young award winner that season? It's a question worth considering.
I’ve done no research so forgive me if this is obvious but… if Lindor wins MVP, has there ever been an MVP named that did not make the All Star team that year?
Kirk Gibson
Not entirely accurate -- Gibson "made" the All-Star team in '88, but he chose not to play. He did the same in 1985.
you don't have to go that far back...Bryce Harper won MVP last year but wasn't an AS.