Breaking Down the Epic NL MVP Race—and a Book Update!

As we enter September, we really should pause for a moment to admire what an epic MVP race we have in the National League.

The AL MVP race is pretty cut-and-dried. That’s a great expression, by the way, “cut and dried.” It definitely goes back to at least the 1700s, and it originally might have referred to herbs, it might have referred to wood, it might have referred to beef jerky. It’s a very flexible phrase.

In this case, it refers to the settled-upon fact that Shohei Ohtani is going to win the American League MVP. Baseball-Reference has Ohtani worth 10 wins above replacement already, and he’s at least four wins clear of everybody, including Texas’ Corey Seager, who is having an absolutely ridiculous season but has played only 90 games because of injury. This has been Ohtani’s award since April, and even with the injury that prevents him from pitching, it’s still his award.

But the National League is an absolute free-for-all. You have three (even four) players who are not only having great seasons, they’re having historic ones. Here’s how I have them ranked right now, knowing full well that this is subject to change:

No. 4: Matt Olson, Braves

His case is a more traditional one — he leads the league in home runs (43) and RBIs (112) and there was a time when those were pretty much the only things that mattered in the MVP voting, especially if you played for a winning team. In the 1960s and 1970s, particularly in the American League, the voters pretty much every year went for sluggers who hit home runs and piled up RBIs — Harmon Killebrew, Boog Powell, Reggie Jackson, Jeff Burroughs, Don Baylor, etc.

Olson has not homered in a couple of weeks, and with the scorching heat coming off the bats of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, this has pretty much locked Olson out of the award. But he still has a very real shot at 50 homers and maybe 135 or 140 RBIs, and that is a classic MVP season.

No. 3: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

OK, so one of the classic baseball trivia answers is Earl Webb, who has had the doubles record of 67 since 1931. It was a weird, weird season; Webb was a journeyman before 1931 because of a lead glove; he was traded, sold and waived twice before ending up with the Red Sox in ’31. And he was not a particularly prolific doubles hitter in any other year; he never hit more than 30.

In fact, the scorecard looks like so:

Earl Webb in 1931: 67 doubles.
Earl Webb in the 499 other games he played: 88 doubles.

So how did it happen? It’s not easy to identify a single overwhelming factor. There have been suggestions that he purposely went for doubles that year, sometimes stopping at second when a triple was in play, though I wouldn’t call it a crime. He was certainly helped by Fenway Park, the greatest doubles park in baseball history: He hit 39 of his doubles there. But that means he still hit 28 doubles on the road. And he was a left-handed batter, so it’s not like he just pulled shot after shot into the Green Monster.

Anyway, the record has held ever since — nobody has hit even 60 doubles since Charlie Gehringer in 1938.

Freddie Freeman has 51 doubles already. He’s having a spectacular season overall — .338/.413/.586, 25 homers, 17 of 18 stolen bases, 111 runs, 89 RBIs — but it’s the doubles that push the imagination. If he plays every day through the end of the season, he seems a near-lock for 60.

And the record? Well, he needs 17 in a month to break the record. And while that’s not easy, it’s doable — you don’t have to go back to the days of Paul Waner or Kiki Cuyler or Joe Vosmik to find months with 17 doubles. It has happened 12 times. One of those 12 was Freeman himself, back in May.

Months with 17 or more doubles since 1980:

• Carlos Delgado, 19, July 2000

• Mark Grace, 19, June 1995

• George Brett, 18, July 1980

• Todd Helton, 18, August 2000

• Frank Thomas, Sept. 1992

• John Olerud, 17, June 1993

• Mike Sweeney, May, 2001

• Kevin Millar, 17, Sept/Oct. 2002

• Jimmy Rollins, 17, September 2005

• Brian Roberts, 17, June 2008

• Joey Votto, Sept. 2009

• Freddie Freeman, 17, May 2023

I wanted to put that whole list on there because I imagine you will remember some of these months. I vividly remember the Sweeney month in 2001. It seemed like every ball he hit was a rocket.

Obviously, I’m rooting for Freeman to break the doubles record. It has been one of my lifelong baseball dreams to see that doubles record broken. And I’m not alone: Mike Schur, Nick Offerman and I formed a little club back in 2019, when Nick Castellanos threatened 60 doubles (he ended up with 58). We would give each other daily updates, racing to be the first to text “Castellanos doubled again!” to the group. I think we should start that up again with Freeman.

If Freddie Freeman does indeed set the doubles record, one of the oldest records in American sports, you HAVE to consider him for the MVP, no?

No. 2: Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Mookie in August is hitting .454/.512/.796 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 32 runs and 26 RBIs in 27 games. It’s one of the most amazing months that any of us have ever seen. He was, before the month even began, America’s greatest human*, so the gap is now a little bit wider.

*As determined by Mike Schur and myself, as he barely moved ahead of Steph Curry, Dolly Parton, Patrick Mahomes, Paul Rudd, Taylor Swift and Colson Whitehead.

In all, Betts is hitting .316, and he leads the league with a .611 slugging percentage, he has hit 36 doubles, 36 homers, he has scored 113 runs and driven in 94, he’s a defensive dynamo wherever he plays, he leads the league in WAR, he’s a top-notch bowler, people name their kids for him, he’s super-nice, we all want him to be our best friend, etc.

I mean; That’s an MVP, right?

No. 1: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves

Here’s something kind of funny: The thing that makes Ronald Acuña Jr. the favorite to be MVP right now, in my opinion, is simply how mind-boggling it is to see a player with 61 steals before September even begins.

I mean, it’s not like Acuña doesn’t have MVP credentials — he most certainly does. He’s hitting .334, he’s slugging .567, he leads the league in on-base percentage, hits and runs, he’s such an extraordinarily dynamic player.

But it’s those stolen bases — and the “HOLY COW, HE HAS SIXTY-ONE STOLEN BASES!” awe they inspire — that has him at the head of this historically great MVP class. He’s almost a full win behind Betts in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR, and FanGraphs has him trailing Freeman, too. You can see exactly why that’s the case: Both are outslugging Acuña, both are very good baserunners themselves, even if not stealing bases like crazy, Betts is playing superior defense, etc. Those 61 stolen bases, while thrilling, are not necessarily game-altering, especially because Acuña also leads the league with 11 caught stealing.

BUT … those 61 stolen bases do boggle the mind. Any day now, Acuña will become the first 30-60 player. I mean, seriously, are you not entertained?

I want to make special mention of the other two players in the National League who have 5 bWAR.

The first in San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim, who currently has 6.4 WAR; he has a higher bWAR than Freeman. Now, I think Baseball-Reference does overstate his value some — FanGraphs has him at a more reasonable-sounding 4.7 WAR — but no one should miss that he’s having a sensational year. The defense was never in question; he’s been manufacturing quality leather products since 18 years old and playing for Nexen in the KBO. There was (and, even now, still remains) some doubt about the offense, but he’s posting a .370 on-base percentage with 17 homers and 29 steals, to go along with the Gold Glove he’s going to win.*

*Kim’s superior defense wherever they put him does make the Pads’ decision to sign Xander Bogaerts to that 11-year, $280 million deal curious, to say the least. I’m not saying that because Xander is having a down year; I think he’s a good hitter and will rebound. I’m saying that because he just doesn’t seem at all what the Padres needed. He has been a below-average defensive shortstop most of his career. And much of his offensive value can be tied to his .312/.374/.496 splits at Fenway Park — it seemed obvious that Petco Park wouldn’t be nearly as good to him (and it hasn’t; he’s not even slugging .400 there).

The Xander deal seemed to me to be one of those signings that look good when you have the press conference and show the player wearing the new uniform. But did it make sense? They already had a defensive star at short. They already had big-money superstars all over the field. I think the Padres have been unlucky this year — I mean, 11 straight extra-inning losses? — but I also think they kind of have a fantasy baseball roster, and those almost always disappoint.

The stolen bases give Acuña that extra wow factor. (Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)

The second 5-WAR player is the Mets’ Francisco Lindor, and I have already written some about this, but it’s worth going back: Lindor is going to end up having his best season since 2018, but because of a lower batting average, few will probably appreciate it. Put it this way, here are all the shortstops who had 25-25 seasons and were worth at least 10 runs defensively, according to Baseball-Reference:

1. Jimmy Rollins, 2006

2. No, that’s all of them, just Jimmy Rollins in 2006.

This blew my mind — I mean, it might say something about how Baseball-Reference judges defense, but I certainly expected there to be a handful of players.

I mean, what about A-Rod in 1998?

Worth 8 runs defensively.

Barry Larkin in 1996?

Worth minus-2 runs defensively.

Trevor Story in 2018?

Worth 7 runs defensively.

Even funnier — that’s not even Rollins’ MVP season. His MVP season was 2007, when he had 30 homers and 41 steals but was worth 5 runs defensively.

In any case, Lindor has a great chance of being the second to do it — he currently has 24 steals and 24 homers, and he’s already worth 10 runs of defense. He’s hitting .251 and even though we should know better than to put much stock in batting average, it’s obscuring a really great year from Lindor.

Book Stuff

I’m in the middle of another crazy multi-multi-interview day here in Kansas City — just got off The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz where they ferociously made fun of me for continuing to write about baseball — and we’re five days from WHY WE LOVE BASEBALL publication day. It’s definitely getting a bit overwhelming.

For the next month or so, my life is going to be complete book chaos. I’m very excited about it — this kind of tour and promotional schedule just doesn’t happen much anymore, certainly not for a sportswriter — and I’m going to try and enjoy every minute of it. And I’m also going to try and keep writing daily here and giving you some fun stuff. I’m sure I’ll recap some of the amazing conversations that will be coming up, too.

Speaking of those conversations, I am going to list the first few events again with ticket info and a little story. I cannot believe the incredible group of people who are going to be a part of this — many of them at their own expense! — and I really hope to see you along the road.

Tuesday in Spring Lake, N.J.

Thunder Road Books, 7 p.m.

I’m there with Hall of Famer Bob Costas. I know I’ve told you my Bob Costas story, but I’ll tell it briefly again, because it gives you an idea how much this event means to me. When I was just out of high school, I wrote to Bob Costas for job advice. I felt like a lost soul, and I idolized Bob, as I still do.

Anyway, he wrote back … and a couple of years later, he came to Salisbury, N.C., to pick up his, I don’t know, 27th Sportscaster of the Year Award. And as a bonus, he brought down a team of celebrities (including Mickey Mantle! And Jim Valvano! And Robert Klein! And American gymnast Bart Conner, I think) to play in a fun, charity baseball game on Sunday after the awards banquet. I was an agate clerk for The Charlotte Observer, but I pleaded for the chance to go to Salisbury to write about the game. The paper let me go. In retrospect, I imagine there wasn’t a long line of people volunteering.

Bob was so incredibly nice to me — he let me sit on the bench! — and I was in heaven, and in gratitude, I tried to write the greatest story ever written. Spoiler alert: It did not end up being the greatest story ever written. A couple of days later, I talked to Bob, and I thanked him for his awe-inspiring kindness and then I asked him, “What did you think of the story.”

And the only thing I remembered him saying was: “Well, I wasn’t going to say anything … but you asked me.”

I’m sure Bob was as gentle as he could be. But I’ll never know because I never heard anything after his opening line. All I got out of that was that I needed to find something else to do; I mean I was 21 years old, and BOB COSTAS had not liked my story, and it was clear I had no future in sportswriting or, frankly, anything else.

Here’s what I did instead of quitting. I wrote Bob a letter. I don’t know how I built up the nerve, but I did anyway — I wrote him a letter, and I poured my heart out about how much I wanted to be a writer, and how much it meant to me, and how sad and embarrassed I was that I had disappointed him. As I’ve told Bob, if I ever saw that letter now I’d die of shame.

BUT … a few months later, I got a job as a full-time writer in the Rock Hill Bureau of the paper. And one day the phone rang. It was Bob Costas. He said that he was on his way to Seoul for the 1988 Olympics but he wanted to call to tell me that he had gotten my letter, and it was on his refrigerator door, and “someday, when you’re writing for Sports Illustrated, I’ll tell people I knew you when.”

I don’t exaggerate when I tell you that Bob Costas changed my life.

And now we’ll be talking baseball and my new book. In a life that has been so improbable, the impossible is happening.

Wednesday in Newport, R.I.

Jane Pickens Theater, 7:30 p.m.

I just heard from my buddy Alex Edelman — he can’t wait for the event. Neither can I. I met Alex Edelman through our friend, the brilliant and wonderful comedian Gary Gulman (who has a brilliant book coming out!), and was immediately taken by Alex’s energy. You know how there are some people who just fill up a room? Alex fills up a room.

His Broadway show, “Just for Us,” is incredible — you don’t have to take my word for, you can go out and find one of the countless rave reviews for the show — but deep down, he’s a baseball guy. His first job was with the Red Sox. He was the guy who put the microphone in David Ortiz’s face* for the Boston Marathon speech. We are going to have such a good time.*

*Speaking of Papi, have you seen the video going around where Dustin Pedroia talks about Papi never learning his name? Apparently, Ortiz exclusively called Pedroia “Pee Wee” and was shocked one day when he heard someone call him “Dustin.”

“Who’s Dustin?” Ortiz asked, leading Pee Wee to remind Ortiz that the words “Dustin Pedroia” were said by the PA announcers before every one of his 6,777 plate appearances, quite a few of which happened with Ortiz standing on deck.

Thursday in St. Louis

JCC’s Mirowitz Performing Arts Center, 7 p.m.

I don’t even know how to feel about sharing the St. Louis stage with my friend and hero Gerald Early. He is one of the smartest, most incisive and thoughtful people in America. I should be moderating HIS event, not the other way around.

But this is how it’s working, and I’m so honored to share the stage with Gerald.

Friday in Kansas City

Unity Temple on the Plaza, 7 p.m.

People ask all the time how Mike Schur and I became friends. It’s a silly story. He had just written (under the Ken Tremendous nom de plume) a devastating Fire Joe Morgan takedown of someone I knew. This had to be, I don’t know, 2008? I know it was before “Parks and Recreation” had started; I think he was working on the pilot then.

Anyway, this particular piece was absolutely hilarious, one of the funniest things I’d ever read, and it was so spot-on; the story deserved to be destroyed. And I wrote to Mike to (1) Tell him how incredible that piece was and (2) Beg him NEVER to do that to one of my stories because I wouldn’t be able to leave the house if he did.

Mike wrote back, was kind, we set up a dinner, we spent like three hours at that dinner doing an unrecorded PosCast, and the rest is history.

I am not going to sit here and say nice things about Mike, I’m not going to tell you how brilliant he is, and how impossibly funny he is, and how good a person he is, and how lucky I am to call him one of my best friends, because, hell no, I’m not doing that. I will tell you, though, that we will be together at Unity Temple, and I will tell you that they’re expecting more than a thousand people, and I will tell you that I think this will be one of the best nights of my life, and I hope you will be there.

Saturday in Cincinnati

Joseph-Beth Booksellers, 4 p.m.

After Friday night’s madness, we have an early start for this one, because afterward, we’re headed to the ballpark for some Reds-Cardinals action! And by we, I mean me and Margo and my buddy Jeff Garlin … and sure, we’d love to see you there, too.

Let me tell you how good a guy Jeff is: I really wanted to do a book event with him because he’s awesome and funny and such a great baseball fan. So I asked if he would somehow, some way be able to make it to Cincinnati. Understand, he doesn’t live in Cincinnati. He lives in L.A.

Without hesitation, he said he would be there.

And he didn’t even mention that he has to be in Chicago early the next day for the Bears-Packers season opener — he NEVER misses a Bears-Packers game.

He’s just incredible. And brilliant. I might take a seat in the crowd.

Tuesday, Sept. 12 in Los Angeles

The Ebell of Los Angeles, 6 p.m.

OK, so I have already mentioned that this event sold out so fast at Chevalier’s Bookstore that it has been moved to the Ebell. It’s going to be amazing chatting away with Molly Knight and being joined by Mike and (how amazing is this) Nick Offerman, I mean, just incredible. At the event, I’ll definitely tell (with Nick’s help) our little story of the Cubs’ Rain Delay speech.

They’ve got a “Going Fast” badge on the ticketing page, along with a little fire emoji, so I’d get tickets now.

Wednesday, Sept. 13 in Santa Rosa

Copperfield Books, 7 p.m.

I have been talking for a while about trying to get a special guest for this event. I have not been especially subtle about who it is; you probably guessed that the special guest I’m trying to get is none other than my hero, Duane Kuiper.

Here’s the problem: Duane has a day job, you know, as Giants broadcaster. And the Giants have a day game against the Guardians that day … then they go on the road the next day to Colorado. I don’t know if Duane is actually going on that road trip (Denver IS beautiful this time of year, though that Rockies team .. blech). But this is a tight squeeze either way; it’s not like Santa Rosa is right next door to San Francisco, either.

Duane has told me he will TRY to work it out and be there, which is amazing. Obviously, if my all-time baseball hero can be there for this event, I will probably just melt into a puddle of pure joy. But even if he can’t make it (which is totally understandable), I’m still going to tell Duane Kuiper stories. You’ll want to be there.

Thursday, Sept. 14 in San Francisco

Harlan Records, 7:30 p.m.

OK, this event with Molly and the wonderful Farhan Zaidi is sold out. We just sent out tickets to the lucky people who got in, and we’re waiting to hear back from everybody. And we do still have a pretty sizable waiting list.

But, hey, you never know: If you would like to add your name to the waiting list you can email us here. Your better bet, though, might be to join us in Santa Rosa, would love to see you there.