Input 2: How many seasons does he have left? To determine this, Bill multiplies the player’s age by .6 and subtracts that from 24. So for Judge it’s 24 - (.6x30) = 6. I have no idea how he came up with this, but it estimates that Judge has six seasons left.
fascinating piece today! i don't think ANY of them get 300 wins, don't think anybody gets to 700 dingers- and yes i remember Randy w/Giants (lifelong Giants fan)...
wish i could gift someone a subscription, it's only through Joe's grace that i have one!
There lots of Black and Latino players with 500 home runs or 3000 hits. Will there ever be a Black or Latino pitcher with 300 wins? Why haven't there been any?
Randy Johnson made the Giants the only team with four pitchers winning number 300 with the team. He joined Tim Keefe (my favorite nineteenth century pitcher....I have his coffee mug), Mickey Welch, and Christy Mathewson.
Lets add up a few things that have occurred in the game. A new focus that leans towards three true outcomes, high strikeouts, strong defense, and reduced incentive for aggressive baserunning. Add these up, and take a great hitter from recent years, such as Albert Pujols or Freedie Freeman or Miguel Cabrera.
Lets say the total of all these elements means these players hit five fewer doubles a year. Half those doubles are launched higher and turn into homeruns, the other half are taken away by the shift, or strikeouts, or something.
Now extend that player over a full, productive career of 20 years. That makes 100 fewer doubles. Now add the covid year, when instead of hitting 40 doubles, the player hit 15. You now have a player who could have made a reasonable run at the record who is not even close to it, all because of a few things related to the era in which he played.
I suspect these kinds of things have a lot to do with lots of records that stand, and others that fall.
I'll admit it; I'm a baseball numbers geek. While the changes to the game have made me less interested in strikeouts, a lot of these other stats are still fun.
It's hard to believe anybody in the current game will set the doubles record. It's just too hard to get hits, period. I was hoping maybe eliminating the shift would help Freeman get there, but while I think that will help his batting average, I don't see removing the short fielder adding many doubles. Maybe the right fielder has to play a couple steps further from the line without the short fielder, but that seems like small potatoes.
I remember RJ with the Giants. After watching him for years with the DBacks, I was in SF for a few days, so I got tickets to a game so I could see another ballpark. It was Giants-Rockies (so, two teams I don't like), then it started raining, enough that I had to put my scorebook away for the middle innings. So I'm sitting in the rain watching two teams I don't like.
Compensation is, I got to see Johnson's win #293, and Panda leg out a triple (large man moving at speed - momentum maximized).
Rooting for JV to make it to 300, used to watch him regularly with the Tigers. Every start had the potential to be something special, be it a bid for no-no or a bunch of K’s in a row or just a workhouse complete game of 120 pitches or more. It seems he is the last of a dying breed.
Same here. Between him and Miggy, what a treat watching a sure-thing HOFer in his prime! Also Morris, Trammell, and Lou Whitaker, whose exclusion is an ongoing heinous felony. My years as a Tigers fan (subtracting the last 5 years or so) have been pretty fun to watch.
I feel completely confident in predicting that Cristian Javier will never throw a nine-inning no-hitter. I think I'd be surprised, however, if he's not INVOLVED in two more. Either he falls off or gets injured, or he maintains and they happen. Joe should start gathering his thoughts about how he'd talk about that.
help me with this...the part about 24 thanks.
Input 2: How many seasons does he have left? To determine this, Bill multiplies the player’s age by .6 and subtracts that from 24. So for Judge it’s 24 - (.6x30) = 6. I have no idea how he came up with this, but it estimates that Judge has six seasons left.
Randy Johnson quarterbacked the New York football Giants very briefly from 1971-1973.
This is not directly related to today's post but I googled the carrots/WW2 story and it's true and the article about it is totally delightful. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/a-wwii-propaganda-campaign-popularized-the-myth-that-carrots-help-you-see-in-the-dark-28812484/
This is an interesting story for sure. You said it is "not directly related..." Is it related at all? Did I miss something?
It's related to the latest (terrific) Poscast.
fascinating piece today! i don't think ANY of them get 300 wins, don't think anybody gets to 700 dingers- and yes i remember Randy w/Giants (lifelong Giants fan)...
wish i could gift someone a subscription, it's only through Joe's grace that i have one!
There lots of Black and Latino players with 500 home runs or 3000 hits. Will there ever be a Black or Latino pitcher with 300 wins? Why haven't there been any?
Randy Johnson made the Giants the only team with four pitchers winning number 300 with the team. He joined Tim Keefe (my favorite nineteenth century pitcher....I have his coffee mug), Mickey Welch, and Christy Mathewson.
Lets add up a few things that have occurred in the game. A new focus that leans towards three true outcomes, high strikeouts, strong defense, and reduced incentive for aggressive baserunning. Add these up, and take a great hitter from recent years, such as Albert Pujols or Freedie Freeman or Miguel Cabrera.
Lets say the total of all these elements means these players hit five fewer doubles a year. Half those doubles are launched higher and turn into homeruns, the other half are taken away by the shift, or strikeouts, or something.
Now extend that player over a full, productive career of 20 years. That makes 100 fewer doubles. Now add the covid year, when instead of hitting 40 doubles, the player hit 15. You now have a player who could have made a reasonable run at the record who is not even close to it, all because of a few things related to the era in which he played.
I suspect these kinds of things have a lot to do with lots of records that stand, and others that fall.
I'll admit it; I'm a baseball numbers geek. While the changes to the game have made me less interested in strikeouts, a lot of these other stats are still fun.
It's hard to believe anybody in the current game will set the doubles record. It's just too hard to get hits, period. I was hoping maybe eliminating the shift would help Freeman get there, but while I think that will help his batting average, I don't see removing the short fielder adding many doubles. Maybe the right fielder has to play a couple steps further from the line without the short fielder, but that seems like small potatoes.
I remember RJ with the Giants. After watching him for years with the DBacks, I was in SF for a few days, so I got tickets to a game so I could see another ballpark. It was Giants-Rockies (so, two teams I don't like), then it started raining, enough that I had to put my scorebook away for the middle innings. So I'm sitting in the rain watching two teams I don't like.
Compensation is, I got to see Johnson's win #293, and Panda leg out a triple (large man moving at speed - momentum maximized).
According to the Bill James home run tool, I have .6 seasons left in me, and should expect zero home runs during that time.
But hey, I have more than half a major league season in me. So there is that!
Rooting for JV to make it to 300, used to watch him regularly with the Tigers. Every start had the potential to be something special, be it a bid for no-no or a bunch of K’s in a row or just a workhouse complete game of 120 pitches or more. It seems he is the last of a dying breed.
Same here. Between him and Miggy, what a treat watching a sure-thing HOFer in his prime! Also Morris, Trammell, and Lou Whitaker, whose exclusion is an ongoing heinous felony. My years as a Tigers fan (subtracting the last 5 years or so) have been pretty fun to watch.
Randy Johnson on the Giants in this commercial https://youtu.be/9NCIRjyT_UU
Ads with baseball players are generally dumb but endearing; except for Edgar Martinez’ ads for Eagle Hardware
https://youtu.be/KWhjzhi690c
Jim Palmer's underwear ads. OK, I guess he wasn't on tv (and thus youtube) in them, but still.
This may be the first time I sat through an ad so I could see another ad
Javier also was part of a combined no-hitter against the Yankees in 2022.
I feel completely confident in predicting that Cristian Javier will never throw a nine-inning no-hitter. I think I'd be surprised, however, if he's not INVOLVED in two more. Either he falls off or gets injured, or he maintains and they happen. Joe should start gathering his thoughts about how he'd talk about that.