First off , Joe, you are again comparing full seasons to partial seasons, (as far as hitting weirdness goes) and this is just not a viable comparison. Last year through June, there were 7.93 hits per game and the league batting average was .239. This year there are 8.14 (All numbers are through June in this comment) per game, and the batting average is .242. Hitting is up from last year. However, run scoring is down from 4.44 to 4.34 runs per game, and this is almost entirely from home runs.
Last year, there were 5.06 singles, 1.55 doubles, and 0.13 triples per game, but there were also 1.18 home runs per game. This year, singles, doubles, and triples are up (5.29, 1.64, and 0.14) while home runs are (1.07.) So, even with the rise in doubles and triples ISO is down. (.162 in 2021, .152 this year) While the June home runs per game might resemble last year's total, it does not resemble last June, where there were 1.28 per game compared to this year's 1.19.
This is why the humidor, and not shifting is the problem. Shifting would affect singles most of all and doubles and triples a bit as well, in a negative manner. The humidor affects home runs, and this affects Statcast's rather simplistic metric. Statcast basically looks at exit velocity and launch angle, and some of those balls lose that exit speed more quickly this year.
Hits are up per game partially because of a few more PAs given to action type players over three true outcome pure power guys as well. This contributes to all 3 factors: More hits, less home runs, less Ks. This is baseball reacting to the shift, and changing the game slowly.
This year is not weird, between the humidor and some PAs being given to a different type of hitter, as well as people trying to compare partial seasons to full ones, it just looks that way.
The question of how much to count Ohtani’s pitching when determining the MVP is really fascinating to me. Can you use something like WPA to combine the impact of his pitching, hitting and defense? It would be easier if there were a Cy Young award equivalent that only took into account hitting and fielding so you could have separate awards and then an overall MVP.
If you think about value to a team, not only do you have to factor in both Ohtani's pitching and hitting, but do you need to also include the value of the extra player on the 26-man roster that a two-way player like Ohtani enables? (Admittedly, you might not get much WAR from the 26th player anyway.) Ohtani really is in his own category.
Here’s an article from MLB Trade Rumors on why they switched from K/9 to K%.
The problem with strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is its interaction with the pitcher’s hits and walks allowed. Imagine a reliever who goes three innings, giving up six hits and six walks while also striking out three batters. Because of all the hits and walks, he faces 15 batters in total. His K/9 is 9.0. Every hit and walk extended the inning and gave him a fresh opportunity for a strikeout. His K% is 20% (three strikeouts out of 15 batters), which is subpar.
Imagine a different reliever who goes three innings, strikes out three, and retires the other six batters. His K/9 is 9.0. His K% is 33.3 (three strikeouts per nine batters), which is good.
Joe Musgrove and JT Brubaker have the same 9.0 K/9, but Musgrove has a better BB/9 (1.86 to 3.62) and a lower BABIP-allowed (.250 to .313). Musgrove has faced 359 batters in 92 innings, for an average of 3.9 batters faced per inning. Brubaker has faced 372 batters in 82 innings, for an average of 4.5 batters faced per inning. They both strike out one batter per inning, but Musgrove is facing fewer batters, so he has a 25.6 K% to Brubaker’s 22%.
They’re tied for 22nd among qualified starting pitchers in K/9, but Musgrove is 16th in K% while Brubaker is 35th (of 64 qualifying starting pitchers).
I can see an argument for either, but the /9 IP can have strange outliers for an all-or-nothing type pitcher. For example, someone could have a high K/9 rate with a WHIP >2. For the latter case, the % stat would be more useful.
I think Joe’s selling Gonsolin short by only mentioning the 10-0 record. He’s also leading the league in ERA at 1.54 and in WHIP. The only area he falls short in is IP, because he didn’t start the season as a starter.
The Yankees the last few games (well, through Saturday, I haven't watched yesterday's game yet) are playing smarter with more deliberate singles through the infield to the opposite field, and maybe I'm overinflating Kiner-Falefa's doing it simply to get on base with what the whole team is, but small ball seems to be as much of the game plan as mashing the ball. I wonder if too many batters are just out there to mash, the shift be damned, and getting out as result.
Also, the home run is boring. A moment of excitement. It's an anecdote. Give me two men on and one out. Now you've got a story.
I'm deeply concerned that Joe, the best baseball writer of his generation (sincerely), has never heard of Yordan Alvarez?
Alvarez: 198 wRC+; 7.2 combined WAR
Judge: 173; 7.5
Trout 177; 7.6
Devers 168; 7.8
Ramirez 170; 7.4
Yes, he's (mostly) a DH. No, I'm not suggesting he should win (though I'm not suggesting he shouldn't win, either) - but to not at least rate a mention seems like an egregious oversight as he is *clearly* the best *hitter* in the AL.
I only didn't mention Alvarez because he didn't feel quite like he fit either category -- the oddsmakers did not list him as a favorite, and I didn't think he quite fits the "darkhorse" category I was looking for. Alvarez is a wonderful hitter, who has had a terrific first half (though he has missed a bit of time with injury -- he might be tops in RC+, but he's also tied for third in actual Runs Created). He's certainly an MVP candidate, we'll see how the second half goes.
It's not a smorgasbord; for Independence Day it's one of those condiment tables where you've got all the buns and toppings and plates and forks and napkins and coleslaw and potato salad and macaroni salad where you pile up your plate before going to the grill to get a hot dog or hamburger or chicken or whatever.....
No matter who wins the AL Cy Young, it would be funny if Justin Verlander ends up being the runner-up again. Unless he ends up winning it, then he can’t be runner-up to himself. Nevertheless he’s still having a heck of a year coming back from Tommy John, and setting himself up for a very compelling chase for 300 wins.
Great idea for a column Joe. Easy to tell us who is doing good now, much more interesting to project the award winners at season’s end. Love the Machado pick. Sooner or later they will make him captain of the team (they already call him that btw), and everyone outside of SD will see how much he’s grown and matured.
Counterpoint: in a sport a bit too obsessed with "respect for the sport," he's a breath of fresh air and consistently entertaining. Tossing him out of the match (or suspending!) would cheat the paying fans who enjoy watching him.
I haven't watched tennis in years...YEARS. I just happened to flip the remote and landed on tennis as the controversy Joe wrote about started, and out of boredom, I watched...and I stayed all the way to the end. Gotta say, I was mesmerized by Kyrgios. It was part horror show, part clown show, part reality TV, part amazing, nonchalant athleticism; but it kept me glued to the TV until the end. When they would briefly show the other match with one of the top three guys in the world (sorry, I don't even know who they are, that's how little I pay attention to tennis), I found myself barely watching. But I would (will??) purposely tune in to watch Kyrgios play again. I hope he overcomes his demons (my God, he was talking about having suicidal thoughts in an interview), but if that's disrespect to the game (even John McEnroe was saying that), sign me up for disrespect to the game.
First off , Joe, you are again comparing full seasons to partial seasons, (as far as hitting weirdness goes) and this is just not a viable comparison. Last year through June, there were 7.93 hits per game and the league batting average was .239. This year there are 8.14 (All numbers are through June in this comment) per game, and the batting average is .242. Hitting is up from last year. However, run scoring is down from 4.44 to 4.34 runs per game, and this is almost entirely from home runs.
Last year, there were 5.06 singles, 1.55 doubles, and 0.13 triples per game, but there were also 1.18 home runs per game. This year, singles, doubles, and triples are up (5.29, 1.64, and 0.14) while home runs are (1.07.) So, even with the rise in doubles and triples ISO is down. (.162 in 2021, .152 this year) While the June home runs per game might resemble last year's total, it does not resemble last June, where there were 1.28 per game compared to this year's 1.19.
This is why the humidor, and not shifting is the problem. Shifting would affect singles most of all and doubles and triples a bit as well, in a negative manner. The humidor affects home runs, and this affects Statcast's rather simplistic metric. Statcast basically looks at exit velocity and launch angle, and some of those balls lose that exit speed more quickly this year.
Hits are up per game partially because of a few more PAs given to action type players over three true outcome pure power guys as well. This contributes to all 3 factors: More hits, less home runs, less Ks. This is baseball reacting to the shift, and changing the game slowly.
This year is not weird, between the humidor and some PAs being given to a different type of hitter, as well as people trying to compare partial seasons to full ones, it just looks that way.
THis does not mean I want the humidor to go away. I prefer less home runs, overall.
Hi! What would be the best way to get in touch with you for business related matters?
Not this...
Trying so hard to jynx the Yankees with this one. I see you, Joe
The question of how much to count Ohtani’s pitching when determining the MVP is really fascinating to me. Can you use something like WPA to combine the impact of his pitching, hitting and defense? It would be easier if there were a Cy Young award equivalent that only took into account hitting and fielding so you could have separate awards and then an overall MVP.
If you think about value to a team, not only do you have to factor in both Ohtani's pitching and hitting, but do you need to also include the value of the extra player on the 26-man roster that a two-way player like Ohtani enables? (Admittedly, you might not get much WAR from the 26th player anyway.) Ohtani really is in his own category.
Why would Ellen Adair prefer % stats rather than /9 IP? Substantively, they are both rate stats.
Here’s an article from MLB Trade Rumors on why they switched from K/9 to K%.
The problem with strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is its interaction with the pitcher’s hits and walks allowed. Imagine a reliever who goes three innings, giving up six hits and six walks while also striking out three batters. Because of all the hits and walks, he faces 15 batters in total. His K/9 is 9.0. Every hit and walk extended the inning and gave him a fresh opportunity for a strikeout. His K% is 20% (three strikeouts out of 15 batters), which is subpar.
Imagine a different reliever who goes three innings, strikes out three, and retires the other six batters. His K/9 is 9.0. His K% is 33.3 (three strikeouts per nine batters), which is good.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/pitching-stats-mlbtr.html
Here’s an example from this season:
Joe Musgrove and JT Brubaker have the same 9.0 K/9, but Musgrove has a better BB/9 (1.86 to 3.62) and a lower BABIP-allowed (.250 to .313). Musgrove has faced 359 batters in 92 innings, for an average of 3.9 batters faced per inning. Brubaker has faced 372 batters in 82 innings, for an average of 4.5 batters faced per inning. They both strike out one batter per inning, but Musgrove is facing fewer batters, so he has a 25.6 K% to Brubaker’s 22%.
They’re tied for 22nd among qualified starting pitchers in K/9, but Musgrove is 16th in K% while Brubaker is 35th (of 64 qualifying starting pitchers).
I can see an argument for either, but the /9 IP can have strange outliers for an all-or-nothing type pitcher. For example, someone could have a high K/9 rate with a WHIP >2. For the latter case, the % stat would be more useful.
I think Joe’s selling Gonsolin short by only mentioning the 10-0 record. He’s also leading the league in ERA at 1.54 and in WHIP. The only area he falls short in is IP, because he didn’t start the season as a starter.
The Yankees the last few games (well, through Saturday, I haven't watched yesterday's game yet) are playing smarter with more deliberate singles through the infield to the opposite field, and maybe I'm overinflating Kiner-Falefa's doing it simply to get on base with what the whole team is, but small ball seems to be as much of the game plan as mashing the ball. I wonder if too many batters are just out there to mash, the shift be damned, and getting out as result.
Also, the home run is boring. A moment of excitement. It's an anecdote. Give me two men on and one out. Now you've got a story.
I'm deeply concerned that Joe, the best baseball writer of his generation (sincerely), has never heard of Yordan Alvarez?
Alvarez: 198 wRC+; 7.2 combined WAR
Judge: 173; 7.5
Trout 177; 7.6
Devers 168; 7.8
Ramirez 170; 7.4
Yes, he's (mostly) a DH. No, I'm not suggesting he should win (though I'm not suggesting he shouldn't win, either) - but to not at least rate a mention seems like an egregious oversight as he is *clearly* the best *hitter* in the AL.
I only didn't mention Alvarez because he didn't feel quite like he fit either category -- the oddsmakers did not list him as a favorite, and I didn't think he quite fits the "darkhorse" category I was looking for. Alvarez is a wonderful hitter, who has had a terrific first half (though he has missed a bit of time with injury -- he might be tops in RC+, but he's also tied for third in actual Runs Created). He's certainly an MVP candidate, we'll see how the second half goes.
Not sure if egregious is the right word. The players Joe mentioned all have higher WAR
They do. But not by much & the gap certainly isn’t as wide as the wRC+ gap.
Alvarez is clearly the best *hitter* in the AL. He should be in any MVP discussion.
Andrés Gimenez is slugging .495. Adding because at .395 I don't think he'd be an MVP candidate.
It's not a smorgasbord; for Independence Day it's one of those condiment tables where you've got all the buns and toppings and plates and forks and napkins and coleslaw and potato salad and macaroni salad where you pile up your plate before going to the grill to get a hot dog or hamburger or chicken or whatever.....
No matter who wins the AL Cy Young, it would be funny if Justin Verlander ends up being the runner-up again. Unless he ends up winning it, then he can’t be runner-up to himself. Nevertheless he’s still having a heck of a year coming back from Tommy John, and setting himself up for a very compelling chase for 300 wins.
Great idea for a column Joe. Easy to tell us who is doing good now, much more interesting to project the award winners at season’s end. Love the Machado pick. Sooner or later they will make him captain of the team (they already call him that btw), and everyone outside of SD will see how much he’s grown and matured.
So do we all. That is one of the ongoing discussions on this subject. There is not one definition - everyone seems to have their own.
MVP is for the league and it is usually awarded for the player that brings the most value regardless of the performance of his teammates.
Counterpoint: in a sport a bit too obsessed with "respect for the sport," he's a breath of fresh air and consistently entertaining. Tossing him out of the match (or suspending!) would cheat the paying fans who enjoy watching him.
- Signed, an admittedly Not Serious Tennis Fan
I haven't watched tennis in years...YEARS. I just happened to flip the remote and landed on tennis as the controversy Joe wrote about started, and out of boredom, I watched...and I stayed all the way to the end. Gotta say, I was mesmerized by Kyrgios. It was part horror show, part clown show, part reality TV, part amazing, nonchalant athleticism; but it kept me glued to the TV until the end. When they would briefly show the other match with one of the top three guys in the world (sorry, I don't even know who they are, that's how little I pay attention to tennis), I found myself barely watching. But I would (will??) purposely tune in to watch Kyrgios play again. I hope he overcomes his demons (my God, he was talking about having suicidal thoughts in an interview), but if that's disrespect to the game (even John McEnroe was saying that), sign me up for disrespect to the game.
Trust me, I get that. And I'm not necessarily proud of my reaction, but it was real. I couldn't stop watching the guy.