I'm an M's fan, so take this with a rather large grain of salt, but: The stats are one thing and the story is another.
Yes, in '93, Game 6, Joe Carter hit a HR and the Blue Jays beat the Phillies to win the World Series. But you could feel it coming a mile away. You knew it. Plus the Jays had won it the year before. The Phillies were this ragtag team of misfits that shouldn't have come close to the Series but were there nonetheless. They were the massive underdogs. Carter's homer meant the overdogs won. Again.
That's Alvarez's homer. I could feel it coming a mile away. And it meant that the team that has won three pennants and one championship in the last six years, and has made the LCS every year since 2017, beat the team that hadn't made the playoffs since 2001. Yay. The rich got richer. Stop the presses.
Maz beating the Yankees—that's a homer for the ages. This thing? It's less than Joe Carter. It's just another sad day in sports.
That was a rough night. The sad kind. It started the instant the ball left Robbie Ray’s hand and it did not end until this morning. (I suppose I could have chosen something other than Nick Drake as my overnight soundtrack.)
The sadness ended, abruptly, when I listened to the Spanish language calls of the Yordan Alvarez home run. Those calls, even though they glory in a thing that causes me great pain, bring joy and hope for a brighter (baseball) tomorrow.
I know Joe hates the intentional walk, but it's an option there. If the Astros had runners on second-and-third when Alvarez came up, it would have been an automatic intentional walk because you can't let Alvarez beat you with a base open. Well, a base WAS still open, it just happened to be third base. Pick your poison: Robby Ray versus Yordan Alvarez with runners on first-and-second and two outs or Paul Sewald versus Alex Bregman with the bases loaded and two outs. I'd prefer Sewald versus Bregman.
As a Phillies fan, the Braves coming back felt just as inevitable yesterday, especially after Matt Olson's home run and Travis d'Arnaud batting. Fortunately, however, sometimes the inevitable doesn't happen.
It’s easy in hindsight to say with certainty that this was the wrong decision, because, yes, this was the wrong decision! It seemed that way at the time and it was. Ray felt like the wrong type of pitcher to face Alvarez in the situation and circumstance Joe described. If Gerrit Cole-type was out in the pen, sure, that would make sense, even with Cole’s second-half dingeritis. Power against power in a matchup that perhaps ends with either a K or a HR. With Ray, it felt like it would end with a HR or a HR. I’d have stuck with Sewald. He got two outs. Just needed one more. His stuff is nasty and more suited to that moment.
I was pulling hard for the Mariners, and still am. I'm all in for the Vedder Cup at this point and so also am disappointed by San Diego's flummoxedness last night, but the Mariners are my team this postseason and god damn they blew it. When you have the Houston Astros - who are just about as good as the Dodgers, really - on the ropes, you have to deliver the KO and take game one! Tough, tough night for the Maritime Nine. Perhaps they can bounce back. Perhaps a couple of Astros fielders chasing a flare can bounce into each other. Thus, they steal a game that they themselves shouldn't win, thus making things even-Steven* out in a karmaic sense.
*what's the official spelling of that; even-Steven? even-Stephen? Even-Steven or -Stephen but with a a capital 'E'?
In a previous life, in another world, I worked as a copyeditor the New York Observer, a weekly gadfly newspaper (ask me about the guy who bought it in 2008!). They had an in-house style that had some interesting quirks. One of these, which my current college is wringing out of me, is one that you mention: punctuation outside quotation marks. So maybe you can find solace that the Minnesota public higher educational system prefers to operate with punctuation inside quotation marks. Another quirk was that ellipses had spaces on both sides. For example, Bob Uecker's home run call would be printed as "Get up ... get outta here, gone!" and not "Get up... get outta here, gone!" They did teach me one space after a period, and I've embraced that one and prefer it. Why waste space?
I am ride-or-die with the Oxford comma. Example: I went to a party and brought the strippers, JFK, and Stalin. I did not go to a party and bring the strippers, JFK and Stalin. Nobody wants to see either of those two do any kind of exotic dancing, let alone clothes removal!
That was, of course, amazing, and I love Belt. But my favorite home run ever as a Giants fan has to be Travis Ishikawa's walk-off to win the NLCS in 2014. Tie game, only Game 5, but my goodness--if we're looking at most unlikely players to hit massive playoff home runs, that one has to be near the top of the list in all of baseball history.
To quote the legendary Jon Miller, "It's Travis Ishikawa!!!"
I sort of went there in my mind. Then you face Bregman, a righty. He does have standard platoon splits for his career, but oddly in 2022 they completely reverse and it's very pronounced. For his career he hits lefties 72 points better by OPS. But in 2022, he hits RIGHTIES a whopping 178 points better by OPS!
The Astros seemed to be the easy favorites going into the series, but heading into the 9th, a scenario opened where the Mariners steal game one with Castillo looming. Suddenly, an upset was possible. Oh, well :-)
Does anyone know why (other than the two most obvious reasons - TV and money) the schedule for two of these series features an off day after game 1? It seems like the worst way to build interest in a series, and with the dramatic ending even worse to follow with an apparently random off day.
If they wanted to stagger these more for TV, they should’ve started 2 series yesterday and 2 today, with the only off day for anyone coming as a travel day after game 2. That would also build in a cushion for a rainout in either game 1 or 2 without having to push back game 3.
Otherwise, just have every series play Tuesday - Wednesday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday.
It was in the Top of the 9th but the Cardinals were down to their last strike of the Series in the same building (down by 2 runs) in 2005. And then Pujols.
It also seems appropriate to make an analogy between Alvarez and Pujols. The symbolism of the moments seem eqivalent, at least. If anyone attacks me for taking Pujols' name lightly, I'll just fall back on Joe's saying Alvarez is so good the outcome was inevitable.
Alvarez has certainly had postseason series of wildly different quality, but it was hard to feel this kind of confidence in him in last year's World Series, when he was 2 for 20. So I don't know if it's true that he has simply hit everywhere and has an aura of invincibility (and inevitability).
You might have heard I'm writing a book called "Why We Love Baseball," where I'm counting down the greatest moments in baseball history. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ...
Joe, I have a pretty good story about the Pujols/Lidge game, if you’re interested (does Clyde Drexler playing a prominent role pique your interest)? Would love to share it with you. Take care.
And really the win expectancy jumped from the same place (started at 8% b/4 Pujols homer and 9% b/4 Alvarez homer), it just was capped on the Pujols homer (only went to 81%) because the Cardinals still had to get 3 outs, whereas the 'Stros won on Alvarez homer alone. So, yeah, not quite the same . . . . but it is the closest I can think of. And it certainly still holds the championship belt for the HR that quieted the crowd the most.
Yup, as an Astros fan it immediately came to mind. Obviously you noted the key difference, but as an Astros fan that day there was 0% chance they were scoring in the bottom of the 9th after the Pujols home run.
You're so right about quieting the crowd. The sound inside MMP after that was the dictionary definition of "stunned silence"
Yup, and also a game that I think the second Berkman hit the HR to go up 4-2, I counted how many people could get on to avoid Pujols.
Sadly it was one two many - much like the Pena hit yesterday, the Eckstein seeing eye single set it all in motion. The second Edmonds was then walked it was inevitable.
I know you hate it, Joe, as you have made abundantly clear, but they could have walked him...
I'm an M's fan, so take this with a rather large grain of salt, but: The stats are one thing and the story is another.
Yes, in '93, Game 6, Joe Carter hit a HR and the Blue Jays beat the Phillies to win the World Series. But you could feel it coming a mile away. You knew it. Plus the Jays had won it the year before. The Phillies were this ragtag team of misfits that shouldn't have come close to the Series but were there nonetheless. They were the massive underdogs. Carter's homer meant the overdogs won. Again.
That's Alvarez's homer. I could feel it coming a mile away. And it meant that the team that has won three pennants and one championship in the last six years, and has made the LCS every year since 2017, beat the team that hadn't made the playoffs since 2001. Yay. The rich got richer. Stop the presses.
Maz beating the Yankees—that's a homer for the ages. This thing? It's less than Joe Carter. It's just another sad day in sports.
That was a rough night. The sad kind. It started the instant the ball left Robbie Ray’s hand and it did not end until this morning. (I suppose I could have chosen something other than Nick Drake as my overnight soundtrack.)
The sadness ended, abruptly, when I listened to the Spanish language calls of the Yordan Alvarez home run. Those calls, even though they glory in a thing that causes me great pain, bring joy and hope for a brighter (baseball) tomorrow.
I know Joe hates the intentional walk, but it's an option there. If the Astros had runners on second-and-third when Alvarez came up, it would have been an automatic intentional walk because you can't let Alvarez beat you with a base open. Well, a base WAS still open, it just happened to be third base. Pick your poison: Robby Ray versus Yordan Alvarez with runners on first-and-second and two outs or Paul Sewald versus Alex Bregman with the bases loaded and two outs. I'd prefer Sewald versus Bregman.
As a Phillies fan, the Braves coming back felt just as inevitable yesterday, especially after Matt Olson's home run and Travis d'Arnaud batting. Fortunately, however, sometimes the inevitable doesn't happen.
Justice is Balance.
The baseball Gods gaveth (in their crazy comeback over the Jays)
The baseball Gods taketh (in their crazy loss to the Astros)
Everything is in Balance for the Mariners.
It’s easy in hindsight to say with certainty that this was the wrong decision, because, yes, this was the wrong decision! It seemed that way at the time and it was. Ray felt like the wrong type of pitcher to face Alvarez in the situation and circumstance Joe described. If Gerrit Cole-type was out in the pen, sure, that would make sense, even with Cole’s second-half dingeritis. Power against power in a matchup that perhaps ends with either a K or a HR. With Ray, it felt like it would end with a HR or a HR. I’d have stuck with Sewald. He got two outs. Just needed one more. His stuff is nasty and more suited to that moment.
Pure managerial panic move by Servais. Let's hope his collar loosens before game 2.
I was pulling hard for the Mariners, and still am. I'm all in for the Vedder Cup at this point and so also am disappointed by San Diego's flummoxedness last night, but the Mariners are my team this postseason and god damn they blew it. When you have the Houston Astros - who are just about as good as the Dodgers, really - on the ropes, you have to deliver the KO and take game one! Tough, tough night for the Maritime Nine. Perhaps they can bounce back. Perhaps a couple of Astros fielders chasing a flare can bounce into each other. Thus, they steal a game that they themselves shouldn't win, thus making things even-Steven* out in a karmaic sense.
*what's the official spelling of that; even-Steven? even-Stephen? Even-Steven or -Stephen but with a a capital 'E'?
ephen-stephen.
An ephen is what you use to counteract a bee sting if you're allergic.
Or... eephus-Steephus!
*golf swing* *rim shot* *tugs collar* *something else Conan O'Brien would do after telling such a joke*
The version web-based dictionary recommends is one you missed: even-steven (no caps).
I just don't think I can not capitalize Steven, which is a name and not just some... THING.
I know what you mean. I still commit the modern faux pas of two spaces after a period, punctuation inside quotation marks*, and the Oxford comma.
* Sentences like:
I definitively did not say "Did you?"
makes more sense than:
I definitively did not say "Did you"?
In a previous life, in another world, I worked as a copyeditor the New York Observer, a weekly gadfly newspaper (ask me about the guy who bought it in 2008!). They had an in-house style that had some interesting quirks. One of these, which my current college is wringing out of me, is one that you mention: punctuation outside quotation marks. So maybe you can find solace that the Minnesota public higher educational system prefers to operate with punctuation inside quotation marks. Another quirk was that ellipses had spaces on both sides. For example, Bob Uecker's home run call would be printed as "Get up ... get outta here, gone!" and not "Get up... get outta here, gone!" They did teach me one space after a period, and I've embraced that one and prefer it. Why waste space?
I am ride-or-die with the Oxford comma. Example: I went to a party and brought the strippers, JFK, and Stalin. I did not go to a party and bring the strippers, JFK and Stalin. Nobody wants to see either of those two do any kind of exotic dancing, let alone clothes removal!
Brandon Belt. 18th inning HR, breaking Nationals - Giants tie. 🎤 drop.
That was, of course, amazing, and I love Belt. But my favorite home run ever as a Giants fan has to be Travis Ishikawa's walk-off to win the NLCS in 2014. Tie game, only Game 5, but my goodness--if we're looking at most unlikely players to hit massive playoff home runs, that one has to be near the top of the list in all of baseball history.
To quote the legendary Jon Miller, "It's Travis Ishikawa!!!"
I guess intentionally walking him was an option. (Ducks...). 😁
I sort of went there in my mind. Then you face Bregman, a righty. He does have standard platoon splits for his career, but oddly in 2022 they completely reverse and it's very pronounced. For his career he hits lefties 72 points better by OPS. But in 2022, he hits RIGHTIES a whopping 178 points better by OPS!
What's a Scott Servais to do?
You had one job, Mariners!
The Astros seemed to be the easy favorites going into the series, but heading into the 9th, a scenario opened where the Mariners steal game one with Castillo looming. Suddenly, an upset was possible. Oh, well :-)
Does anyone know why (other than the two most obvious reasons - TV and money) the schedule for two of these series features an off day after game 1? It seems like the worst way to build interest in a series, and with the dramatic ending even worse to follow with an apparently random off day.
If they wanted to stagger these more for TV, they should’ve started 2 series yesterday and 2 today, with the only off day for anyone coming as a travel day after game 2. That would also build in a cushion for a rainout in either game 1 or 2 without having to push back game 3.
Otherwise, just have every series play Tuesday - Wednesday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday.
Any question that begins with the word "Why" can usually be answered with the word "Money".
Of course you are right. What they did is dumb, but that is MLB for you.
Great column Joe. Thank you!
"Before Alvarez, there had only been three October walkoffs that actually turned the score around."
That's crazy. I assumed it was at least a dozen times, considering how the postseason keeps expanding over the years.
It was in the Top of the 9th but the Cardinals were down to their last strike of the Series in the same building (down by 2 runs) in 2005. And then Pujols.
I had to look it up, because I remembered that in 2011 David Freese had
A) A come-from behind hit with two outs when down to their last strike
B) A walk off homerun
But crazily enough, those were two different at bats. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZVCrKcOl78
That is the #9 postseason play in WPA, but is only 2nd among non walk offs. (Jack Clark, 1985 against the Dodgers)
It also seems appropriate to make an analogy between Alvarez and Pujols. The symbolism of the moments seem eqivalent, at least. If anyone attacks me for taking Pujols' name lightly, I'll just fall back on Joe's saying Alvarez is so good the outcome was inevitable.
Alvarez has certainly had postseason series of wildly different quality, but it was hard to feel this kind of confidence in him in last year's World Series, when he was 2 for 20. So I don't know if it's true that he has simply hit everywhere and has an aura of invincibility (and inevitability).
You might have heard I'm writing a book called "Why We Love Baseball," where I'm counting down the greatest moments in baseball history. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ...
Joe, I have a pretty good story about the Pujols/Lidge game, if you’re interested (does Clyde Drexler playing a prominent role pique your interest)? Would love to share it with you. Take care.
Yes, and believe me I can't wait. (and if George's upper decker in Yankee Stadium off Gossage in 1980 is in there too, I would be pretty happy)
And really the win expectancy jumped from the same place (started at 8% b/4 Pujols homer and 9% b/4 Alvarez homer), it just was capped on the Pujols homer (only went to 81%) because the Cardinals still had to get 3 outs, whereas the 'Stros won on Alvarez homer alone. So, yeah, not quite the same . . . . but it is the closest I can think of. And it certainly still holds the championship belt for the HR that quieted the crowd the most.
Yup, as an Astros fan it immediately came to mind. Obviously you noted the key difference, but as an Astros fan that day there was 0% chance they were scoring in the bottom of the 9th after the Pujols home run.
You're so right about quieting the crowd. The sound inside MMP after that was the dictionary definition of "stunned silence"
On TV, I think we could hear Albert's footsteps around the bases.
Yup, and also a game that I think the second Berkman hit the HR to go up 4-2, I counted how many people could get on to avoid Pujols.
Sadly it was one two many - much like the Pena hit yesterday, the Eckstein seeing eye single set it all in motion. The second Edmonds was then walked it was inevitable.