Where is the love for the Tampa Bay Rays? Until their day off they were tied with the Yankees (and Os!!), and had swept the Yankees three straight. The Yankees wins are 2 against the Giants, 2 each against Mariners and Marlins and 1 against the angels. Now, I understand the Yankees are expected to be a much better team than the Rays this year. And they probably will be. But over the first 10% of the season, the Rays should get some credit. And I love watching Chandler Simpson!
The Astros extended their contract with Satan another couple of years, but apparently it expired after last year.
I like the line about Red Sox fans. As a Rays fan, it’s interesting to see the difference between Yankees fans and Red Sox fans. When the Rays fans start to cheer a little bit or talk a little trash, the Yankees fans just laugh it off like a big brother little brother or old dog young puppy type relationship. The Red Sox fans get right in the Rays fans’ faces. Take from that whatever you will.
Really don’t think that pitchers today are warlocks. They are just the product of a system that accepts at least one Tommy John surgery per career as a rite of passage.
I think all of the players are a lot better than they used to be. Because the hitters are still hitting that ungodly stuff. Maybe not as often as they used to, but considering the filthy stuff some of these pitchers have, I think the hitters are way better than they used to be also
Maybe they should just let catchers call balls and strikes.
There would be almost no walks, and hitters would have to swing at the first viable pitch they see, so not that many more strikeouts. More balls in play, faster.
Your prose is much better than reading endless, cumbersome stats. I'm a 70 year old lady Joe. Give a girl a break. I'm too old to learn a new language. 😂
Since Fangraphs incorporates catching framing into their WAR, should challenges also be included? It feels like the same idea, where a catcher turns a ball into a strike, so if framing is a value-add, I assume that being good at challenges is, as well
How off were the radar guns back in the 1980s compared to today? Would Gooden’s fastball be more like 96 on today’s guns?
Also, relative speed is probably big here, so even if his fastball was, say, “only” 95, it was likely faster than most others. Hitters have adjusted - somewhat - to the faster speeds.
I'm not sure that there is a significant difference in quality between now and then. But rather, they were measuring something a bit different. The older guns took longer to register so they picked up the speed of the ball much closer to the plate. Today's are able to get the speed of the ball almost immediately after it leaves the pitchers' hand. Neither is right or wrong, just measuring one instant in time for an event that happens over 60'6".
Not being a physicist, I don't know that it really matters much if a ball is going X at 55 feet away and X-Y at 5 feet away. Instead, I'd think it is the total time from release to crossing the plate. Or with very minor exceptions that usually even out over a season (humidity, wind, elevation, ball laces, etc.) a fastball thrown by Doc Gooden or JR Richard or Don Drysdale or Lefty Grove or Smoky Joe Williams or Cyclone Young will lose speed at the same rate as one thrown by today's pitchers. So the different readings by the different radar guns are immaterial.
I think most people prefer the radar readings we have now, because 100 MPH is a big round number that can be crossed, but not that often.
If there were 2 pitches the same exact speed but because of different means of measurements, one pitch was said to be 95 MPH but the same speed registered 100 MPH, the second one sounds more exciting and dramatic.
Right. I actually knew that. But I’m just curious what the speed of Gooden’s fastball would be if we measured it today. Is there a consensus that, say, the guns were 5 mph “slower” back then?
My go-to whenever there is a science of baseball question is Dr. Alan Nathan. He has written a LOT of stuff that is far too deep for my high school level physics class taken roughly the same time Gooden was at his peak. (Yikes!) He concluded that there is a 10% difference between "initial" velocity (i.e. right out of the pitcher's hand) and the average over the course of the 60'6". https://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/DragTPTMay2014.pdf That isn't exactly the same thing as the difference between initial and end stage, but it helps.
There is not a 10% difference between initial and average velocity. There is a 10% difference in drag coefficient using the initial velocity in the calculation vs. using average velocity in the calculation. Velocity is squared in that calculation, so it is not a linear proportionality between drag coefficient and velocity.
Oooh, good stuff! That is a much greater difference than the Fastball documentary which I referenced below. And that is between initial and average velocity. Initial and final velocity would show an even greater difference. Even the 10% number would have Gooden throwing close to 100mph. And Ryan throwing 110!
I *think* that the radar guns of the 90s were measuring the pitch somewhere near-ish the midpoint while those of the 70s were closer to the plate. Long buried memories of the JUGS gun vs another device ... but that was a lot of fastballs ago so many grains of salt etc.
FWIW, it wouldn't surprise me if Ryan (or Dick Radatz or Bob Feller or whomever) was a bit faster than Miller, Chapman, etc. It would, however, surprise me if he were ~5% faster. That is a Bob Beamon like leap in a very mature field.
There's a documentary called "Fastball" that examines this question in detail. It concluded there is about a 4 mph difference between readings now and then on equivalent fastballs. So Gooden's 90 mph would still only be 94. But Nolan Ryan's 101 mph fastball would be 105!
The Astros’ situation is very strange. After setting what everyone thought was an untouchable record last year in most players ever on the IL (DL), they’re definitely on track to better it this year. Three starting pitchers are on the list now (including Hunter Brown), as well as closer Josh Hader, starting center fielder Jake Meyers and shortstop and 2025 Team MVP Jeremy Peña. In Colorado the other day in a span of about half an inning they lost both Meyers and starting pitcher Christian Javier.
The way this all has worked is:
Step 1: Player gets lifted mid-game for no readily apparent reason.
Step 2: Player says it’s just a caution, “no big deal.”
As a Yankee fan, I am very concerned with the bullpen. Tim Hill is the most reliable arm there. Bednar is a modern day version of Don "full-pack" Stanhouse.
I think he's completely serious. Of course, you can't actually let catchers "call" balls and strikes because they would cheat. But they know what pitch is coming and how it moves so they are rarely fooled. And there's nobody blocking their view (like the catcher is blocking the umpires view).
If Ron Luciano can be believed--he couldn't always be--he would let catchers he trusted call pitches, and one day the pitcher objected to the catcher's call. Luciano said he was really tempted ....
I'm not sure that I would have trusted Luciano to accurately remember his own name. But he sure was a fun storyteller and provided some entertainment without taking himself too seriously.
His own name, maybe. But I do believe this one. One of the champion whiners of his time was a terrific hitter, Richie Ashburn. One day, Jocko Conlan had had enough and told him he was calling the next pitch. Jocko said it was knee level but inside and Ashburn said, "Strike." Jocko called it a strike and then told Ashburn he had had one chance and blew it!
Where is the love for the Tampa Bay Rays? Until their day off they were tied with the Yankees (and Os!!), and had swept the Yankees three straight. The Yankees wins are 2 against the Giants, 2 each against Mariners and Marlins and 1 against the angels. Now, I understand the Yankees are expected to be a much better team than the Rays this year. And they probably will be. But over the first 10% of the season, the Rays should get some credit. And I love watching Chandler Simpson!
The Astros extended their contract with Satan another couple of years, but apparently it expired after last year.
I like the line about Red Sox fans. As a Rays fan, it’s interesting to see the difference between Yankees fans and Red Sox fans. When the Rays fans start to cheer a little bit or talk a little trash, the Yankees fans just laugh it off like a big brother little brother or old dog young puppy type relationship. The Red Sox fans get right in the Rays fans’ faces. Take from that whatever you will.
Really don’t think that pitchers today are warlocks. They are just the product of a system that accepts at least one Tommy John surgery per career as a rite of passage.
I think all of the players are a lot better than they used to be. Because the hitters are still hitting that ungodly stuff. Maybe not as often as they used to, but considering the filthy stuff some of these pitchers have, I think the hitters are way better than they used to be also
I'm looking forward to tomorrow's column, which has to mention Andy Pages, the last person I would have expected to be awarded an early MVP.
Maybe they should just let catchers call balls and strikes.
There would be almost no walks, and hitters would have to swing at the first viable pitch they see, so not that many more strikeouts. More balls in play, faster.
Your prose is much better than reading endless, cumbersome stats. I'm a 70 year old lady Joe. Give a girl a break. I'm too old to learn a new language. 😂
Since Fangraphs incorporates catching framing into their WAR, should challenges also be included? It feels like the same idea, where a catcher turns a ball into a strike, so if framing is a value-add, I assume that being good at challenges is, as well
How off were the radar guns back in the 1980s compared to today? Would Gooden’s fastball be more like 96 on today’s guns?
Also, relative speed is probably big here, so even if his fastball was, say, “only” 95, it was likely faster than most others. Hitters have adjusted - somewhat - to the faster speeds.
I'm not sure that there is a significant difference in quality between now and then. But rather, they were measuring something a bit different. The older guns took longer to register so they picked up the speed of the ball much closer to the plate. Today's are able to get the speed of the ball almost immediately after it leaves the pitchers' hand. Neither is right or wrong, just measuring one instant in time for an event that happens over 60'6".
Not being a physicist, I don't know that it really matters much if a ball is going X at 55 feet away and X-Y at 5 feet away. Instead, I'd think it is the total time from release to crossing the plate. Or with very minor exceptions that usually even out over a season (humidity, wind, elevation, ball laces, etc.) a fastball thrown by Doc Gooden or JR Richard or Don Drysdale or Lefty Grove or Smoky Joe Williams or Cyclone Young will lose speed at the same rate as one thrown by today's pitchers. So the different readings by the different radar guns are immaterial.
I think most people prefer the radar readings we have now, because 100 MPH is a big round number that can be crossed, but not that often.
If there were 2 pitches the same exact speed but because of different means of measurements, one pitch was said to be 95 MPH but the same speed registered 100 MPH, the second one sounds more exciting and dramatic.
Right. I actually knew that. But I’m just curious what the speed of Gooden’s fastball would be if we measured it today. Is there a consensus that, say, the guns were 5 mph “slower” back then?
My go-to whenever there is a science of baseball question is Dr. Alan Nathan. He has written a LOT of stuff that is far too deep for my high school level physics class taken roughly the same time Gooden was at his peak. (Yikes!) He concluded that there is a 10% difference between "initial" velocity (i.e. right out of the pitcher's hand) and the average over the course of the 60'6". https://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/DragTPTMay2014.pdf That isn't exactly the same thing as the difference between initial and end stage, but it helps.
There is not a 10% difference between initial and average velocity. There is a 10% difference in drag coefficient using the initial velocity in the calculation vs. using average velocity in the calculation. Velocity is squared in that calculation, so it is not a linear proportionality between drag coefficient and velocity.
Oooh, good stuff! That is a much greater difference than the Fastball documentary which I referenced below. And that is between initial and average velocity. Initial and final velocity would show an even greater difference. Even the 10% number would have Gooden throwing close to 100mph. And Ryan throwing 110!
I appreciate the response regardless
I *think* that the radar guns of the 90s were measuring the pitch somewhere near-ish the midpoint while those of the 70s were closer to the plate. Long buried memories of the JUGS gun vs another device ... but that was a lot of fastballs ago so many grains of salt etc.
FWIW, it wouldn't surprise me if Ryan (or Dick Radatz or Bob Feller or whomever) was a bit faster than Miller, Chapman, etc. It would, however, surprise me if he were ~5% faster. That is a Bob Beamon like leap in a very mature field.
Fun to talk about
There's a documentary called "Fastball" that examines this question in detail. It concluded there is about a 4 mph difference between readings now and then on equivalent fastballs. So Gooden's 90 mph would still only be 94. But Nolan Ryan's 101 mph fastball would be 105!
The Astros’ situation is very strange. After setting what everyone thought was an untouchable record last year in most players ever on the IL (DL), they’re definitely on track to better it this year. Three starting pitchers are on the list now (including Hunter Brown), as well as closer Josh Hader, starting center fielder Jake Meyers and shortstop and 2025 Team MVP Jeremy Peña. In Colorado the other day in a span of about half an inning they lost both Meyers and starting pitcher Christian Javier.
The way this all has worked is:
Step 1: Player gets lifted mid-game for no readily apparent reason.
Step 2: Player says it’s just a caution, “no big deal.”
Step 3: Player goes on IL.
Sometimes Step 1 is skipped.
It’s a mess.
As a Yankee fan, I am very concerned with the bullpen. Tim Hill is the most reliable arm there. Bednar is a modern day version of Don "full-pack" Stanhouse.
"Catchers are just SO much better at calling balls and strikes than umpires."
I really hope you are joking. I think so. Because you are not that inane.
I think he's completely serious. Of course, you can't actually let catchers "call" balls and strikes because they would cheat. But they know what pitch is coming and how it moves so they are rarely fooled. And there's nobody blocking their view (like the catcher is blocking the umpires view).
If Ron Luciano can be believed--he couldn't always be--he would let catchers he trusted call pitches, and one day the pitcher objected to the catcher's call. Luciano said he was really tempted ....
I'm not sure that I would have trusted Luciano to accurately remember his own name. But he sure was a fun storyteller and provided some entertainment without taking himself too seriously.
His own name, maybe. But I do believe this one. One of the champion whiners of his time was a terrific hitter, Richie Ashburn. One day, Jocko Conlan had had enough and told him he was calling the next pitch. Jocko said it was knee level but inside and Ashburn said, "Strike." Jocko called it a strike and then told Ashburn he had had one chance and blew it!